Saturday, July 14, 2018

What Are The Motivations That Will Decide The November Midterms?


I guess there weren't many DNC super-delegates voting in the massive YouGov poll released on Wednesday. It's a fascinating survey and I'm sure you'll be hearing lots more about it. But there were a couple of questions that I found especially interesting in light of the massive attack from rightists and "dentists" against Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez after her election. Questions 86 and 87 asked participants if they wished the candidates who run for Congress this year will be more or less like Donald Trump and more of less like Bernie. Overall, 30% of voters said they want congressional candidates to be more like Trump and 33% said they want congressional candidates to be more like Bernie. But where it gets interesting is in the breakdown.

First Señor Trumpanzee: 69% of Republicans want their congressional candidates to be Trumpier and 16% want them to be less Trumpy. Among Democrats, 9% want candidates to be Trumpier and 78% want the candidates less Trumped-up. Among independent voters, 23% want candidates to be Trumpier and 44% want them less Trumpy.

Now Bernie. 57% of Democrats want congressional candidates to be more like Bernie and only 16% want candidates to be less like Bernie. Among Republicans, 13% of voters want congressional candidates to be more like Bernie and 74% opted for less like Bernie. Among Independents, 27% want congressional candidates to be more like Bernie and 35% want candidates less like Bernie.

Comparing Trump to Bernie is interesting, in terms of the 2020 general election but two things:

1- this is about the midterms and it bodes well for progressive Democrats who manage to get by the DCCC and win party nominations the way Alexandria Ocasio did, the way Kara Eastman did, the way Mike Siegel did, the way... all of these people did so far. It should add further impetus to coming primaries for Berniecrats like Kaniela Ing in Hawaii, James Thompson and Brent Welder in Nebraska, Rashida Tlaib in Michigan, Randy Bryce in Wisconsin and Tom Guild in Oklahoma.

2- this doesn't tell us anything about the 2020 Democratic primary where some centrist hack-- either Joe Biden, Kirsten Gillibrand, Mark Zuckerberg, John Hickenlooper, Terry MaAuliffe, Deval Patrick, Howard Schultz, Seth Moulton, Jason Kander, Sheryl Sandberg, or-- worst of all-- the creepy New Dem already running, John Delaney (and already endorsed by Steve Case, Donald Su$$man and GOP ex-Rep Richard Hanna)-- will run against the Bernie/Warren ticket.

That same poll asked respondents what issues are important to them when they decide how to vote. Here's each issue the poll sampled and how important Democrats, Independents and Republicans said it was for them for candidates to agree with their own views. This is how many said it was very important:
The Economy

Republicans- 67%
Independents- 50%
Democrats- 58%


Republicans- 90%
Independents- 89%
Democrats- 88%

The environment

Republicans- 23%
Independents- 45%
Democrats- 69%


Republicans- 75%
Independents- 55%
Democrats- 51%

Gay Rights

Republicans- 11%
Independents- 22%
Democrats- 44%


Republicans- 46%
Independents- 57%
Democrats- 74%

Health Care

Republicans- 63%
Independents- 64%
Democrats- 81%

Social Security

Republicans- 68%
Independents- 60%
Democrats- 77%

Budget Deficit

Republicans- 57%
Independents- 38%
Democrats- 43%

War in Afghanistan

Republicans- 33%
Independents- 27%
Democrats- 31%


Republicans- 62%
Independents- 53%
Democrats- 58%


Republicans- 54%
Independents- 56%
Democrats- 74%


Republicans- 42%
Independents- 41%
Democrats- 52%

Foreign Policy

Republicans- 42%
Independents- 37%
Democrats- 45%

Gun Control

Republicans- 45%
Independents- 47%
Democrats- 71%

International Trade and Globalization

Republicans- 32%
Independents- 29%
Democrats- 46%

Use of Military Force

Republicans- 49%
Independents- 37%
Democrats- 47%
The survey then asked what each respondent's most important issue is (just one). The problem with this, in my opinion, is that most voters (yes most) will go to the polls in November with one issue in mind, and the issue isn't even offered by these pollsters: Donald J. Trump. (Other polls bear me out on this, by the way.) Americans will vote for a member of Congress who will either support Trump or help keep him in check. As you can see, Alan Grayson is pretty sure that voters in his district want to see Trump muzzled. That said, these are the 5 most important issues for each set of voters:


Health care- 21%
Social Security- 19%
The economy- 15%
The environment- 11%
Medicare- 8%


Immigration- 21%
The economy- 17%
Social Security- 12%
Abortion- 10%
Terrorism- 9%


Health Care- 15%
The Economy- 15%
Immigration- 11%
Education- 10%
Social Security- 10%

As for American politicians, there was, obviously a big difference between how favorably voters see them. This is the list of politicians from most favorable to least favorable among independent voters only:
Señor Trumpanzee- 35%
Mike Pence- 31%
Paul Ryan- 18%
Nancy Pelosi- 17%
Chuck Schumer- 16%
Mitch McConnell- 13%

Democratic Party- 24%
Republican Party- 23%

Jane Goodall compared Trump’s behavior to that of a chimpanzee. "In many ways the performances of Donald Trump reminds me of male chimpanzees and their dominance rituals... In order to impress rivals, males seeking to rise in the dominance hierarchy perform spectacular displays: stamping, slapping the ground, dragging branches, throwing rocks. The more vigorous and imaginative the display, the faster the individual is likely to rise in the hierarchy, and the longer he is likely to maintain that position."

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At 6:32 PM, Blogger edmondo said...

Remember a couple days ago when DWT told us how awesome it was that Max Boot was anti-Trump and the Democrats should welcome him with open arms? Here's what DWT's new poster boy for the Resistance wrote today in the WaPo:

“In short, across the West, politics is once again being reduced to an atavistic struggle between the radical right and the loony left. We have avoided disaster only because there are still a few sensible leaders left such as Britain’s Theresa May, France’s Emmanuel Macron, Canada’s Justin Trudeau and Germany’s Angela Merkel who are trying to hew to the rapidly vanishing center. But they are facing virulent assault from both left-wing and right-wing extremists often supported, one way or another, by the Kremlin.”

Max pointed out that Bernie Sanders was a prime example of the "loony left" that is controlled by the Kremlin. Instead of reading DWT I could get more cogent political
commentary from The Onion. Max Boot - Jesus H, Christ, Max Boot is our new hero.

At 1:46 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Remember how Walden O'Dell vowed to deliver Ohio to Dubya? As the then-head of Diebold, he certainly could - and did!

Just because he sold Diebold and it is no longer an active firm doesn't mean that the other vendors aren't already working out how to deliver a midterm win to the Republicans and end this "will of the people" stuff they despise.

Gilens and Page proved that Congress doesn't ever hear what We the People want anyway. Especially not fair and verifiable election results.

So when one team fields Hitler Youth and the other team clears out geriatric homes to wage electoral war, who do you think is going to win?

At 6:23 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

How can any functioning brain look at this polling and NOT immediately realize that americans are the dumbest motherfuckers on earth?

At 1:47 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

the midterms will be determined on the relative magnitude of our hate vs. our fear vs. our stupidity.

If our hate (meskins, muslims, rampaging blacks, uppity wimmin, ostentatious gays...) is greatest, trump and the Nazis win.
If our fear of trump is greatest, the democraps will win.

Either way, our stupidity will guarantee that either the Nazis or the democraps win... and nothing at all will change in the slightest.


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