Tuesday, July 24, 2018

Gubernatorial Contests-- starting With Today's GOP Runoff In Georgia-- Are Swinging Towards The Democrats


Whether you see it as a blue wave or just as an ordinary cyclical anti-red wave, it looks like the current anti-Trump environment is going to lead to more Democratic governors after the midterms. Before we get into that, though, let me just mention that today is Republican primary runoff day in Georgia. Peach State Republicans are deciding which of their weak, battered candidates-- Lieutenant Governor Casey Cagle or Secretary of State Brian Kemp-- will face off in November against Stacey Abrams. After Trump tweeted an endorsement of Kemp, the more extremist of the two Republicans, Mike Pence joined him on the campaign trail again, this time in Macon over the weekend.

The three Republican candidates who did not advance from the May 22 primary-- Hunter Hill, Clay Tippins, and Michael Williams-- have all endorsed Kemp. Most polls showed a neck and neck race until the Trump July 18 tweet, but the latest poll from SurveyUSA shows Kemp at 40% to Cagle at 34%. A Garin Hart Young poll shows Abrams beating Cagle 48-43% and beating Kemp49-40%.

Although not dubbing them "frick and frack," Atlanta Magazine noted that voters barely see any difference between Cagle and Kemp. "[B]oth are Christian businessmen who claim to be unwavering in their pro-life beliefs and fancy themselves staunch defenders of the Second Amendment. They have both vocally praised President Donald Trump on social media and in speeches during their campaigns. (Although neither endorsed him in the 2016 primary, they did both support him in the general election)."
Republicans and Democrats alike have criticized Cagle during this campaign in light of several incriminating audio recordings leaked by Clay Tippins, his rival in the GOP primary, and later Brian Kemp. Kemp released one tape earlier this month in which Cagle said, “This primary felt like it was who had the biggest gun, who had the biggest truck, and who could be the craziest.”
Goal ThermometerYesterday, the New York Times reported that "A polarizing president electrifies the opposition party going into his first midterm election, raising the party’s hopes that it can reclaim governorships, ram through major policy change at the state level and redraw legislative lines in its favor for a decade to come. It’s a scenario both political parties have seen before, most recently in 2010, when out-of-power Republicans rode the Tea Party-led wave against the Obama administration to smashing victories across the country. This year, governors in both parties acknowledged at the National Governors Association conference here, it is Democrats who appear poised to make major gains as Republicans brace for a backlash against President Trump that could lead to grievous statehouse losses." The last time a Democrat was elected governor of Georgia was 1998 (Roy Barnes). The last an African-American was elected governor of Georgia was... never. The last time a woman was elected governor of Georgia was also never. Remember, Stacey Abrams already won her primary-- landslide-- and whichever Republican wins today will be the person Stacey has to beat in November. If you want to help... that's what the gubernatorial thermometer on the right is for.

There are 36 gubernatorial races in November, 26 held by Republicans, 9 held by Democrats and 1, Alaska, held by an independent. We've rated each race:
Alabama- safe Republican
Alaska- toss up (towards GOP)
Arizona- toss up
Arkansas- likely Republican
California- solid Democrat
Colorado- lean Democrat
Connecticut- lean Democrat
Florida- toss up
Georgia- lean Republican
Hawaii- safe Democrat
Idaho- safe Republican
Illinois- lean Democrat
Iowa- lean Democrat
Kansas- lean Republican
Maine- Lean Democrat
Maryland- lean Republican
Massachusetts- lean Republican
Michigan- toss up
Minnesota- toss up
Nebraska- safe Republican
Nevada- toss up
New Hampshire- toss up
New Mexico- lean Democrat
New York- safe Democrat
Ohio- toss up
Oklahoma- likely Republican
Oregon- safe Democrat
Pennsylvania- solid Democrat
Rhode Island- likely Democrat
South Carolina- safe Republican
South Dakota- Safe Republican
Tennessee- likely Republican
Texas- safe Republican
Vermont- lean Republican
Wisconsin- toss up
Wyoming- safe Republican

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At 4:34 PM, Blogger edmondo said...

Arizona, Florida, Wisconsin and New Hampshire are NOT toss-ups except in the Democrats' wet dreams. If the GOP loses these seats to the third class candidates that the Dems are running, then the Dems are going to flip 200 seats in the House.

It ain't gonna happen.


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