Monday, May 28, 2018

Winning One Of The Last Republican Held Seats In Los Angeles-- A Two-Part Guest Post By Lee Rogers


Anyone who has followed this blog for the past half dozen years knows Dr. Lee Rogers, primarily because he ran for Congress in CA-25 twice. The heart of the district is Santa Clarita but spreads south to Porter Ranch, west into Simi Valley, north as far as Gorman and east to Palmdale and up to Lancaster in the Antelope Valley. Lee challenged powerful (and corrupt) Republican Buck McKeon in 2012 and 2014, In 2012 he scared McKeon with a much closer race than he was used to, 129,593 (54.8%) to 106,982 (45.2%). McKeon decided to retire. In 2014, Lee was one of the first victims of the new jungle primary, when two Republicans prevailed in the first round and no Democrat made it to the general election. Today he is a prominent, internationally-known speaker and author on health policy. This week he endorsed Katie Hill for the CA-25 election.

Democrats' Chance to Flip CA-25 Rests with Katie Hill, Part I
by Dr. Lee Rogers

The outlook to flip California’s 25th District has never looked better. But that outlook is dimming with the prospect of a Bryan Caforio win over Katie Hill in California’s top two primary. Caforio lost to incumbent Republican Steve Knight in 2016. Caforio, who is attempting to run as a progressive, is dogged by his work as a lawyer representing big corporations, millionaires, and an oil company against citizens claiming seeping petroleum polluted their land.

Katie Hill, who is from the district and work includes being the executive director of the nonprofit PATH (People Assisting The Homeless), has worked to pass measures in LA area to reduce homelessness.

“In the Business of Helping People”

A political-newcomer, Hill has even out-raised Caforio $1.1M to $1M for the primary election cycle. Even more astonishing is what trusted political analysts are saying about Hill and CA-25.

The Cook Political Report has CA-25 as a toss up and cautions Democrats could nominate the “wrong” candidate.
CA-25: Steve Knight (R)-- Northern LA County: Santa Clarita, Palmdale

Toss Up. Democrats don't face any risk of a primary lockout here, but they do run the risk of nominating the "wrong" candidate. Knight faces four Democrats on the June ballot, but the race for the second runoff slot is between non-profit executive Katie Hill and 2016 nominee Bryan Caforio. The "Beverly Hills trial lawyer" label doomed Caforio in 2016, and a Caforio nomination could help Knight survive in a district Hillary Clinton carried by seven points.

Hill, 31, grew up in the district (unlike Caforio) and has run one of the largest anti-homelessness non-profits in the state. She owns guns and horses and culturally fits this parochial seat. Her first ad features her narrating her pitch while mountain climbing. She would offer a stark generational contrast to Knight, who has a tendency to shoot from the lip. And with the help of EMILY's List and LGBT groups, she's outraised Caforio $1 million to $883,000.

But despite her general election appeal, Hill isn't a sure bet to advance to November. Caforio is running as the "true progressive," retains plenty of name ID from his last race and is fond of replaying an old endorsement video President Obama cut for him in 2016. Meanwhile, Hill risks splitting women's votes with two minor Democrats on the ballot, volcano scientist Jess Phoenix and former Oak Park school board member Mary Pallant.

If Hill advances, Knight would probably become the underdog. If Caforio advances, Knight would still have a chance of keeping this seat in the GOP's column.”
Local Democrats have a real chance to add to a Democratic majority and rebuke Donald Trump’s policies in Washington, but only if they choose the right opponent to Representative Steve Knight.

Katie Hill’s platform of Universal Healthcare, Rebuilding the American Dream, and having an accountable, representative Government resonates with people in the district and is strengthened by the fact that her message is delivered by such a credible person.

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