Friday, May 18, 2018

Is The Road To A Senate Majority Thru Tennessee? Bredesen Is Much Better Than Kyrsten Sinema


Tennessee (R+14 PVI, worse than Texas, South Carolina, Kansas or Alaska) was a very Trumpy state in 2016. Trump beat Hillary 1,522,925 (60.7%) to 870,695 (34.7%) and won every one of Tennessee's 95 counties except Shelby (Memphis), Davidson (Nashville) and tiny Haywood, a black-majority rural agricultural county north of Memphis. So its hardly a state you'd think the Democrats would be targeting for a big Senate race. But they are. That's because the likely Republican candidate, Marsha Blackburn, is a crackpot extremist with a crackpot extremist record she can't run away from. And independent voters don't like her or what she stands for. And they do like the Democrat, former Governor Phil Bredesen. He's hardly a Blue America candidate-- to conservative-- but he's no Kyrsten Sinema or Joe Manchin. His record as governor was mixed.

Yesterday The Tennessean published a Vanderbilt poll that shows-- like all the other polls that have come out-- that this deep red state is likely to flip blue in November. Even, Bob Corker, the mainstream conservative incumbent who's retiring has been subtly indicating that he prefers Bredesen over Blackburn.
Independent voters in Tennessee have a significantly more positive view of former Democratic Gov. Phil Bredesen than Republican U.S. Rep. Marsha Blackburn, a new poll shows, as the race to replace U.S. Sen. Bob Corker continues to heat up.

Further, a majority of Republicans even say they have a favorable view of Bredesen.

Both indicators, included in a new poll from Vanderbilt University, offer valuable insight into the state of the race and provide a map for each candidate.

The poll, released Thursday, found 69 percent of independent respondents had a favorable view of Bredesen. Just 44 percent of independents had a positive view of Blackburn.

Independent voters could play a key role in the race, which is expected to draw national attention as Democrats seek to regain control of the Senate.

...For Bredesen to have a path to victory, he needs support not just from Democrats and independents but Republicans. The latest Vanderbilt poll reveals he's experiencing more support from his opponents' party than Blackburn has among Democrats.

The survey found 52 percent of Republicans had a positive view of Bredesen while just 23 percent of Democrats had a favorable opinion of Blackburn.

"If you're Bredesen, these are really, really good numbers for you in terms of your overall name recognition is high, you have much higher favorables than unfavorables," said Vanderbilt University political science professor Josh Clinton, who along with political science professor John Geer, oversees the poll.

Beyond the candidates' support from voters in each party, the survey found negative views of Blackburn outpaced Bredesen.

Thirty-eight percent of respondents said they had an unfavorable view of the Brentwood Republican while 25 percent had a negative view of the former Nashville mayor.

Sixty-seven percent of respondents said they had a favorable view of Bredesen compared to 49 percent having a positive view of Blackburn.
With the exception of a one year appointment after Robert Love Taylor, a Democrat, died in 1912, every senator from Tennessee from 1875 to Howard Baker's election in 1966 was a Democrat. the last Democrats elected to the Senate from Tennessee were Jim Sasser in 1977 (reelected in 1982) and Al Gore, elected in 1985 (and reelected in 1990). And Bredesen was the last Democrat elected governor-- 2003, reelected in 2010.

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At 6:37 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

"Forget it, Jake! It's Tennessee".

So what if Bredesen defeats Blackburn. He's going to be more like Manchin than a Democrat and vote like a Republican. Where is the gain?

Real Democrats need to replace Republicans, but the Party only pushes DINOs forward. The nation will collapse before they change that practice.

At 7:43 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Is anyone else suffering deja vu?

Remember the days when the Democrat majority was based on the yellow-dog south?

And I have to disagree with 6:37. "Real Democrats" are who the party now recruits and promotes.

The few progressives that can somehow run (and a few of whom may actually win), being such a small minority, are the 'fake democrats'.

You are what the preponderance of your members are, not what a tiny minority of your members are.

Wishing the opposite, no matter how fervently, does not make it so.

At 5:21 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

So numbers are all you care about, 7:43? You must not believe the aphorism which states "By their actions shall ye know them". Do try to explain how your "real" Democrats qualify for that description, and try using something other than the numerous hacks the Party shoves in front of the voters without giving them a voice in the process.


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