Another District The DCCC Is Stumbling Around In And Screwing Up The Works

Since we write so much about how terrible the DCCC interference in Democratic primaries is, people often ask me which one of the races are they screwing up the most. They've certainly done immense damage in Houston (TX-07), in Austin (TX-21), Dallas (TX-32), Omaha (NE-02), Orange County (CA-39), South Jersey (NJ-02), the Denver suburbs (CO-06), Syracuse (NY-24), and South Texas (TX-23), but the race in Tucson (AZ-02) may well be the most disgusting. Ann Kirkpatrick was already in Congress and accrued really horrible, conservative voting record and a consistent record of fighting tooth and nail for her benefactors at the NRA. Kirkpatrick was a rotgut New Dem and a disgrace to the Democratic Party. There are two viable Democrats in the primary this time and the DCCC has strongly backed Kirkpatrick even though she's not the strongest candidate.

How can I make that assertion? New polling of likely Democratic primary voters from FM3 Research released last week shows that Matt Heinz has a narrow lead despite the fact that Kirkpatrick has huge name recognition from her failed 2016 Senate race and has already spent $458,729 to Heinz's $220,032. (The DCCC has helped her corral $234,667 in PAC contributes-- compared to just $7,500 that Heinz has brought in from PACs.)

While Democratic primary voters are familiar with both candidates, they are more likely to hold a favorable opinion of Heinz, and after hearing equal positive nformation about these two candidates, support for Heinz increases. Furthermore, the survey shows that many aspects of Kirkpatrick’s voting record in Congress pose a serious problem for her among Democratic primary voters, particularly her support of Republican tax cuts, cuts to Medicare, and her former “A” rating from the NRA.

...In an initial Democratic primary ballot test, Matt Heinz currently leads the field with 27%, giving him a four-point edge over Ann Kirkpatrick (23%). These results show the highly competitive nature of the Democratic primary, and despite her high-profile and well-financed statewide candidacy for the U.S. Senate in 2016, 2nd District Democrats have not embraced Kirkpatrick. The contest is very much a two-person race, as the other candidates generate only mid-single digit support.

Heinz doubles his initial lead over Kirkpatrick after voters hear positive profile statements about both candidates. After learning more positive information about the candidates’ backgrounds, including their professional experience, Heinz increases his vote by 13 points and moves to an eight-point advantage (40%-32%) over Kirkpatrick.

The survey data also show significant primary voter concern about many aspects of Kirkpatrick’s record. Survey respondents were read a series of descriptive phrases, and were asked if they would be more or less likely to vote for a candidate who matched such a description. As Figure 3 shows, votes for Congressional Republicans’ legislation to cut Medicare and the support for Bush-era tax cuts elicited severe negative reactions-- more than eight in ten Democratic primary voters would be less likely to vote for a candidate-- like Kirkpatrick-- who took those positions. Voters also responded negatively to the idea that a candidate failed to vote on the DREAM Act, as six in ten (62%) said they would be less likely to vote for that person for Congress. Voters in the survey also reacted negatively to Kirkpatrick’s having received an “A” rating from the NRA.

Meanwhile, Kirkpatrick made such an ass out of herself at the last forum that she's started skipping subsequent ones... just like Martha McSally, the Republican incumbent does. What a clown. She's probably hoping the New Dems, the DCCC and EMILY's List will get her through. Meanwhile Heinz has pledged to voters that if he's elected he will join the Congressional Progressive Caucus.