Monday, May 07, 2018

How Toxic Will Trump Be For The GOP In Tomorrow's Primaries?


Tomorrow is Tuesday... primary day in 4 important states: North Carolina, Indiana, West Virginia and Ohio-- each of which was carried by Señor Trumpanzee. If you think the GOP primary in West Virginia is crackpotsville... well, you're right, but almost sane compared to what's going on in Indiana. Last week we looked at the mess the Indiana senate primary has turned into. The Republicans in the battle there are charging each other with things like "Drunken driving, self-dealing and false advertising," while all 3 candidates-- Congressman Todd Rokita, Congressman Luke Messer and former state Rep. Mike Braun-- are "doing their best to portray themselves as the second coming" of... Señor Trumpanzee. If it comes down to who is the most Trump-like-- and it well may-- Braun should have the edge.

Over the weekend Bill Barrow surveyed the Trumpist landscape in all for states for A.P. The nomination fights are pulling the party to the right, leaving some leaders worried their candidates will be out of a step with the broader electorate in November. "GOP candidates are jockeying to be seen as the most conservative, the most anti-Washington and the most loyal to the president. It’s evidence of the onetime outsider’s deepening imprint on the Republican Party he commandeered less than two years ago."
In Indiana, Republicans will pick from among three Senate candidates who have spent much of the race praising Trump and bashing each other. In West Virginia, a former federal convict and coal baron has taken aim at Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) with racially charged accusations of corruption.

In Ohio, Republicans are certain to nominate someone more conservative than outgoing GOP Gov. John Kasich, a 2016 presidential candidate, moderate and frequent Trump critic. Even Kasich’s former running mate, Lt. Gov. Mary Taylor, has pledged to unwind some of Kasich’s centrist policies, including the expansion of the Medicaid government insurance program following Democrats’ 2010 health insurance overhaul.

With Trump’s job approval hanging around 40 percent and the GOP-run Congress less than half that, the abandonment of the middle has some Republicans raising alarms.

“The far left and the far right always think they are going to dominate these elections,” said John Weaver, a Trump critic and top strategist to Kasich, who has been become a near-pariah in the primary to succeed him.
Weaver's reasoning has one little problem. There is no far left among Democratic politicians. The battles in the Democratic Party are between right-wing Democrats like Joe Manchin (D-WV) and Kyrsten Sinema (Blue Dog-AZ) on the one hand and mainstream slightly left of center Democrats on the other side. There are 5 Democrats with 100% Progressive Punch ratings this year: Jamie Raskin (MD), Jan Schakowsky (IL), Barbara Lee (CA), Karen Bass (CA) and John Lewis (GA). None are extremists; none are remotely "far left."

On the other hand, putative Democrat Conor Lamb (Blue Dog-PA), who the GOP just spent over a million dollars smearing as a far right lunatic has a ZERO rating, making him far to the right of most Republicans in the House. And he's a DCCC role model! There are 22 Republicans with zero scores-- and all of them really are far right (or pretending to be): Karen Handel (GA), Bradley Byrne (AL), Jackie Walorski (IN), Pete Sessions (TX), Devin Nunes (CA), Brett Guthrie (KY), Ken Calvert (CA), Sam Johnson (TX), Mac Thornberry (TX), Joe Wilson (SC), Kay Granger (TX), Steve Scalise (LA), Gregg Harper (MS), Steve Womack (AR), Dennis Ross (FL), Rick Crawford (AR), Duncan Hunter (CA), Austin Scott (GA), Trey Gowdy (SC), Gus Bilirakis (FL), Rodney Frelinghuysen (NJ) and Lou Barletta (PA). And it isn't just their voting records; remember Joe Wilson? He's the one who screamed "You lie" while Obama was delivering the State of the Union. Can you imagine a Democrat doing something like that to Trump, even though every word out of his face is a lie? Lou Barletta is running for the U.S. as an open racist. And what can anyone say about Devin Nunes other than he's counting on Trump eventually pardoning him? OK, back to Barrow:
“You may think it’s wise in a primary to handcuff yourself to the president,” Weaver said. “But when the ship goes down, you may not be able to get the cuffs off.”

North Carolina Republicans will weigh in on the fate of Republican Rep. Robert Pittenger, facing a primary challenger who almost upset him two years ago. Pittenger features Trump prominently in his campaign. Challenger Mark Harris, a prominent Charlotte pastor, has tried to turn the table, saying Pittenger is a creature of Washington who refuses to help Trump “drain that swamp.”

Tough primaries certainly don’t have to be disastrous. They often gin up voter attention and engagement, and can signal strong turnout in the general election.

Dallas Woodhouse, who runs the North Carolina Republican Party, said candidates benefit because they must “make their arguments and voters become more aware of the election.”
Imagine if Pelosi, Lujan, Sena and Bresler ran the DCCC that way, instead of squelching primaries and doing all they can to crush progressives who run against their shit candidates from the Republican wing of the Democratic Party. That hasn't been working out very well for crap DCCC recruits so far like Jay Hulings (TX-23), Alex Triantaphyllis (TX-07), Tim Gomes (NY-02), R.D Huffstetler (VA-05) or some of the others the DCCC fattened up on contributions only to see them fall by the wayside to grassroots candidates.
Few national Republicans look at West Virginia and see helpful enthusiasm.

The orange ape spoke up this morning

Former coal executive Don Blankenship has accused McConnell of creating jobs for “China people” and charges that the senator’s “China family” has given him millions of dollars. McConnell’s wife is Trump’s transportation secretary, Elaine Chao, who was born in Taiwan.

Indiana Senate candidates are trying to appeal to Trump voters by adopting the president’s harsh immigration rhetoric and penchant for personal insults. The candidates have even channeled Trump by assigning derisive nicknames to one another: “Lyin’” Todd Rokita, Luke “Missing” Messer and “Tax Hike” Mike Braun.

In several of the Tuesday primaries, Democrats are watching with delight, and having less trouble aligning behind nominees. The chief beneficiaries would be Democratic Sens. Joe Manchin of West Virginia and Joe Donnelly of Indiana, both sitting on healthy campaign accounts after avoiding their own primary fights.

The leading Democrat for the North Carolina seat, Marine veteran Dan McCready, has raised almost $2 million, slightly more than Harris and Pittenger combined, in a district Trump won by about 12 percentage points. “He will absolutely make this competitive,” Harris said.

In the Ohio governor’s race, liberal former Rep. Dennis Kucinich and former state Attorney General Richard Cordray have managed to avoid open warfare. Cordray, who also led the federal consumer watchdog agency launched under President Barack Obama, is the favorite.

Republicans watched their state party, led by pro-Trump leadership that replaced Kasich allies after the 2016 elections, endorse state Attorney General Mike Dewine, while Taylor has effectively shunned an earlier endorsement from Kasich.

“If Ohio Republicans are divided into Trump Republicans and Kasich Republicans, the Trump Republicans have won,” said the state Democratic chairman, David Pepper. “That helps us.”

Gallup measures Trump with an 89 percent job approval rating among Republicans nationally, but 35 percent among independents and 42 percent overall. Historically, presidents below 50 percent watch their party suffer steep losses in midterm elections.

Democrats must flip about two dozen Republican-held seats to reclaim a House majority, and they must do it with Republican-run legislatures having drawn many districts to the GOP’s advantage. In North Carolina, Harris said the makeup of the district, which stretches from Republican areas of metro Charlotte east through small towns and rural counties, makes his pro-Trump, anti-establishment message a primary and November winner.

Senate Democrats are just two seats shy of a majority, but must defend 26 incumbents, 10 in states where Trump won, including Ohio, Indiana and West Virginia. Republicans are defending nine seats, just one in a state Trump lost.
One nice thing that could pay off in the future: something like eight Kentucky counties are in the West Virginia media markets and they're hearing all this "swamp captain Mitch" and "cocaine Mitch" stuff on their TVs and radios all day and night. It seems to be working for Blankenship at the last minute. Last night Alex Isenstadt reported that West Virginia's establishment Democrats are worrying that Blankenship's candidacy is experiencing a sudden last minute surge. Two weeks ago Blankenship was in third place but after a week of attacking McConnell and Jenkins, he's in first place and Jenkins is disappearing as a contender. People seem to like the anti-McConnell approach. Private polling show him back in first place and "many are convinced that a Blankenship win, coming just months after the disastrous Alabama Senate race, would destroy the party’s prospects of defeating Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin in November."

Trumpanzee Jr. tweeted a plea to "the people of West Virginia to make a wise decision and reject Blankenship. No more fumbles like Alabama. We need to win in November."

Particularly concerning to Republicans is Blankenship’s TV spending. Over the final six days of the race, the self-funding coal baron is set to spend over $640,000 on commercials, according to media buying totals-- more than Jenkins and Morrisey combined. Blankenship has spent over $2.5 million on TV ads in total, far more than his rivals.

What is also distressing, senior Republicans say, is that Jenkins and Morrisey spent nearly all of the campaign savaging each other. Further complicating matters is that a Democratic super PAC, Duty and Country, has invested $1.8 million targeting Jenkins in an effort to keep him from winning the GOP primary, convinced that he would pose a formidable challenge to Manchin.

The bloodbath may ultimately be to the benefit of Blankenship, who has faced far fewer incoming attacks.

Andy Seré, a Jenkins strategist, argued that Morrisey’s attacks against Jenkins “have helped Blankenship,” and that with his last-minute attacks against Blankenship, “Morrisey is scrambling to fix the mess he and his enablers made.”

“But West Virginians see through it,” Seré added. “We are confident the Schumer-Morrisey alliance will fail and Evan Jenkins will prevail."
Happiest man in West Virginia has got to be Joe Manchin. In fact, didn't some notoriously right-of-center anti-gay MSNBC hostess endorse him for president in the last few days? More good news for Manchin. Blankenship is threatening to run as an independent if he doesn't win the GOP primary tomorrow. Blankie: " have not ruled out anything. I’ve said that I cannot let him win because of the opioid connection and Planned Parenthood connection." Manchin should build a cathedral to thank God.

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At 6:09 AM, Blogger Chris Roberts said...

again people are dismissing progressives.manchen has a primary challenge and msm and establishment has buried ohio Kucinich has chance to win primary but they are trying to act like he has no chance.dems elected in november are going to be more clinton than bernie so neoliberals will win and not much will change.bernie will have uphill battle for 2020 with superdelegates against him with all the neoliberals.however this time they may be divided between biden and fake progressives book and harris.warren who isn't as progressive as some think may not run in hope of her uspporitng benrie in primary and selected as vp if he wins nomination.i have warnings though 1-if bernie is elected in 2020 he will have to fight dems as much as gop because not much has changed from 201516 when he was cheated and 2-if biden or harris or booker is able win 2020 election dems will be wiped out again In 2022

At 6:37 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Chris, the 'craps will be wiped out again in '22 no matter who is in the WH. See, obamanation was very popular in '10, perplexingly since he hadn't done shit, but congress ALSO had openly refused to address anything in the critical 2008 mandate, so they were decimated in 2010. 2022 cannot be any different. The money dictates what can and, more importantly, what can NEVER be done; Pelosi/scummer dutifully serve only the money and rule their caucuses tyrannically. And lefty voters pay attention a little more than Nazi voters.

In the Nazi party in heavily Nazi states and districts, it is nothing new for candidates to eat their own. They know that no matter how damaged they are after the melee, their voters will still support them over anyone left of reinhard heydrich.

What is kind of disappointing is the voters of WV starting to get behind coal baron/murderer don. This guy put profit ahead of safety (nothing new for a Nazi) but in his case, it ended up killing dozens of miners.

How stupid must voters be to decide a guy who went to prison for causing the deaths of dozens of their brothers is their guy.

So if you're depending on WV voters to save the republican manchin, just remember how fucking stupid they truly are.

WV is our most remedial state... among soooo many.

At 6:49 AM, Blogger Chris Roberts said...

inless manchen loses primary to his progressive challenger gop wins nomatter what in WV.manchen is reliable vote for trump and gop.i am not evne signling out west in missouri Mckascill Is the same as him.

actully obama was at 45% approval in 2010 and the horror stories gop ran on with obamacare took trump for obamacare to finally become popular even though obamacare is conservative idea and nation version of romneycare.the progressive plan is medicare for all.

bottom line as long as neoliberals like pelosi and chumer remain In charge victory in 2018 and possibly 2020 is only shorttime one since gop likely comes back in 2022.even if bernie preveils in 2020 all pelosi and chumer have to do is work to keep him from getting anything done and voters may be discourged and stay home while gop voters will be rushing out to vote for gop again.for all the moaning that bernie and his supporters didn't do enough to help hilary which is bs they won't do same if bernie is able to preveil in 2020 primarys.

At 8:42 AM, Anonymous ap215 said...

Very toxic with a capital V.

At 12:13 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

“If Ohio Republicans are divided into Trump Republicans and Kasich Republicans, the Trump Republicans have won,” said the state Democratic chairman, David Pepper. “That helps us.”

Yeah, Ohio Democrats will lose by only 25 percentage points instead of their usual 30. Cordray is about as exciting as Hillary was when she was asleep.Say Hello to governor DeWine.

At 12:26 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

I'm watching for Kasich to go rogue and run third party. As I read him, he's been attempting to present himself as a rational alternative. I see him sensing a great opportunity and he's going to take it.

It's what Bernie should have done.

At 2:08 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

I predict that we'll see that in these Nazi bastions, trump won't be toxic at all. The Nazis may not win by their usual double-digits, but they'll still win.

The only question is how truly misanthropic will the survivor of their primaries be.

In WV, it looks like a felon who has killed people for profit may win and run against a Nazi wearing a blue suit.

I'm just a bit curious how truly evil those voters are going to be. I'm also curious just how much fraud it will inspire in OH and if anyone will bother to notice.

In this shithole, the "winner" may be determined by who pays referee donaghy the most. Oh wait... mixing up my rigging schemes here. Donaghy was the NBA. Unlucky guy... shaved his points back when laws still meant something... occasionally.

At 8:31 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

12:26, dream much? Who's going to donate to a Kasich campaign, R or I?? Maybe if Biden is the 'crap nom, they'll give Kasich just enough to split the R vote so Biden (or Booker or equivalent corporate tool) wins?

At 9:15 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

I didn't say I was supporting Kasich, 8:31. I was providing my impressions of his recent actions. He clearly wants back into the national level of politics, and this is how he is doing it.

I have not forgotten what an @$$#0le he was while in Congress. That persona would return upon his ascension to the Federal level should he be successful. Is not forewarned fore armed?

At 6:43 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Apologies 9:15. I thought you were 'dreaming' that he'd go I and split the Nazi vote allowing some 'crap to win.

I'm aware that he's a far worse hominid than he tries to project. He's trump without the demagoguery and insanity.
He and scummer are the same person. He pretends to be Reagan. Scummer pretends to be ... LBJ? Both REALLY are faithful servants of the money who don't care about and/or actually hate swaths of the people.


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