How Many GOP Governors And Gubernatorial Candidates Are Going Down Next Year Because Of Trump?

Daniel Biss can be the next governor of Illinois-- if he beats 3 billionaires

We've mostly talked about the Trump/Ryan toxicity fallout in terms of congressional races-- and I imagine we'll stay on that subject right through the end of 2018. However, as we saw in Oklahoma Tuesday, Trump/Ryan toxicity is working its magic on state legislatures. We also saw that in Virginia, where the Democrats were expected to pick up between 2 to 4 seats in the House of Delegates but picked up at least 15 and perhaps 17. And in Virginia and New Jersey we also saw how Trump particularly-- but Ryan's policy agenda too-- is screwing Republican gubernatorial candidates. Reporting for Bloomberg yesterday, John McCormick channels GOP governors angst/panic. The dual sub-headlines: "Presidential unpopularity could threaten GOP state dominance" and "More than two-thirds of all governor seats on ballot in 2018." They're working on ways to distance themselves from Trump and Ryan and McConnell in time for the 2018 elections, especially in competitive states like Ohio, Michigan, Florida, Illinois, Nevada, Vermont, Maine, Wisconsin, Minnesota, New Hampshire, Kansas, New Mexico, Pennsylvania, Tennessee... maybe even Texas if the tsunami is high enough.

The annual Republican Governors Association meeting was in Austin this week. Steve Grubbs, an Iowa-based Republican strategist and former state party chairman, said GOP governors are "walking a tightrope... The Trump base is very strong, and alienating that base by pushing Trump away could cost a governor two to five points on election day. But there are also suburban voters who are bothered by the positioning of the White House and risk being lost on the other side." Just ask Ed Gillespie in Virginia, who was battered on both ends-- and disastrously. He didn't just lose by a much wider margin than anyone predicted; he dragged the whole statewide ticket down with him and lost all those legislative seats to boot. Roy Moore probably isn't helping the situation either, at least not outside the Old Confederacy.

Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker, the association’s chairman, is seeking a third term next November. He downplayed the role Trump will play and said he’s encouraging his colleagues to run their "own race."

Walker and Florida Governor Rick Scott, while meeting with reporters, called for Moore to exit the race before the Dec. 12 special election. Scott called his alleged actions "disgusting," while Walker dismissed suggestions that Moore might hurt the Republican brand.

“No more so than Democrats had to answer for Anthony Weiner or Eliot Spitzer," he said, pointing to other politicians who have had sex scandals.

...Next year’s balloting will test whether Democrats can still win in the Midwest, where recent presidential elections have often been decided and where Trump scored some of his most unexpected victories. Democrats are competing for governorships now held by Republicans in Iowa, Michigan, Ohio and Wisconsin.

The stakes are especially high because the 2018 elections will determine who controls state governments for the redistricting procedures that will follow the 2020 Census. The outcome of that process will shape state and congressional boundaries for the next decade.

In last week’s elections, Democrats showed strength especially in suburban areas. The Virginia governor’s race, this year’s most closely watched, showcased how disapproval of Trump is motivating Democrats and independents.

...The party’s sweeping gains in state legislative seats and governor’s offices in 2010 and 2014 have been used to cut taxes, restrict abortion and collective-bargaining rights, and implement new voting requirements. They’ve also redrawn legislative districts to their advantage.

Around the lobby bar and hallway corridors of the Austin convention hotel hosting the three-day meeting, most donors expressed support for Trump.

“People shouldn’t confuse style with substance,” said Alfred Eckert III, a New Yorker and former Goldman Sachs Group Inc. employee now working as an educational improvement entrepreneur. “He is remaking the Appeals Court and that’s probably more important for our country than anything else."

Eckert offered measured praise for Trump’s former chief strategist, Steve Bannon, whose candidate recruitment and support for Moore has proven to be a headache for Republican congressional leaders.

“I think it’s good, when he picks safe Republican seats that are held by RINOs,” Eckert said, referencing to the “Republicans in name only” moniker sometimes given to more moderate members of the party.

David Cohn, an Republican Governors Association donor from Maryland, was an exception to the enthusiasm for the president. “Donald Trump is basically wrecking the Republican Party,” he said. “Donald Trump isn’t a Republican.”

Even as the shadow of Moore hangs over the party, several donors expressed concern about condemning him too quickly.

“It’s for the people of Alabama to decide because they’ve had many years of experience with the man,” said Amy Craig, an donor from Virginia. “Everyone is innocent until proven guilty.”

Longtime Republican megadonor Foster Friess, who is considering a primary challenge of Senator John Barrasso of Wyoming after Bannon encouraged him to think about running, said decisions about what to do about Moore should be left to the GOP.

“I think it’s distressing that a lot of people have hung him without all of the all due process taking place,” Friess said.