The Collapse Of Paul Ryan

David Frum seems disappointed in Paul Ryan: "October 2017 is already late to recognize Donald Trump for what he is and what he is doing, and next year will be later, and the year after that later still. Someday, I’m sure, Speaker of the House Paul Ryan will unburden himself of the agonies he felt during all the time he enabled and empowered this president to do the harm under which Ryan writhed. Yet from a political rather than a moral point of view, the question, “Where were you when it counted?” is the wrong question. It always counts. It counted then, it counts now, it will count in future." Is Ryan fit for elective office? Wisconsin voters increasingly are saying "NO!" Especially independent voters in Kenosha, Janesville, Racine and even in Muskego and the Milwaukee suburbs south of the airport.

Nationally, Ryan popularity has collapsed in the last few months. He's as toxic for Republican incumbents as Pelosi is for Democratic incumbents. But the information has been scarcer about voters in his own district. The public and private polls available show he and Democrat Randy Bryce generally running neck and neck, with Bryce slightly ahead in most surveys. This week PPP released polling results for Wisconsin, primarily to gage the electability of Ryan ally, Scott Walker. PPP found that "Walker is somewhat unpopular, with 43% of voters approving of the job he’s doing to 49% who disapprove. Walker trails a generic Democratic opponent for reelection 48-43... The Foxconn deal isn’t doing much to enhance Walker’s political standing. 34% of voters say they support the deal to 41% who oppose it. Voters also question Walker’s motivations with the deal- just 38% think he’s doing it because it will be a good long term deal for the state, while 49% think he’s doing it just to try to help with his reelection next year. There is also a sentiment among voters that in several key areas things in Wisconsin have not improved under Walker’s leadership. Just 17% think the quality of public schools has gotten better during Walker’s tenure to 48% who think they’ve gotten worse and 27% who believe they’ve stayed about the same. And only 20% think the quality of roads and highways has gotten better during the Walker administration, to 38% who think they’ve gotten worse, and 36% who think they’ve stayed about the same. The other thing plaguing Walker right now is his ties to Donald Trump, who’s become unpopular in Wisconsin. Only 40% of voters approve of the job Trump is doing to 52% who disapprove. And 44% of voters in the state think Walker has been too supportive of Trump to 35% who think he’s been supportive about the right amount, and 13% who think he hasn’t been supportive enough."

All that is also generally true of Ryan, who is also trying to claim "credit" for the Foxcomm boondoggle. PPP also found that most Wisconsin voters hold distinctly non-Ryan positions on issues that mater to them. 59% support expanding Medicaid and only 21% oppose (Ryan's position). 79% of voters support allowing student loan borrowers to refinance their loans, something Ryan (and 9% of Wisconsin voters) oppose.

Paul Ryan’s having the same issues with his popularity in Wisconsin that he is nationally. Only 35% of voters approve of the job he’s doing to 51% who disapprove. He hasn’t found a way to strike the right balance when it comes to supporting Donald Trump-- 44% of voters think he’s too supportive of Trump, 25% think he’s not supportive enough of Trump, and only 23% think he’s getting the balance right. He’s getting it from both sides with 79% of Clinton voters thinking he’s too supportive of Trump and 51% of Trump voters thinking he’s not supportive enough of Trump.

“Paul Ryan’s seen his national approval numbers crater over the course of this year and Wisconsin is no different,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “There’s virtually no esteem for him from the Democratic base and he’s antagonized a lot of Republicans who like Trump better than him as well.”

...Republican tax reform efforts are also getting poor reviews from Wisconsin voters. Only 28% of voters say they support the Republicans in Congress’ tax proposal, to 43% who say they are opposed to it. That’s a reflection of the sentiment of a majority of voters- 51%- that the plan will mostly just help wealthy families. Only 23% think the primary beneficiary will be middle income families, and 9% think it will be low income families.

Randy and Gwen yesterday

Remember a while back we looked at the end of the Dave Obey rule that prevented Wisconsin members of Congress from endorsing against incumbents of the opposite party? Obey himself, endorsing Randy Bryce, declared the rule outmoded. Then Mark Pocan, the co-chairman of the Congressional Progressive Caucus from the district next door, endorsed Bryce. Yesterday, Gwen Moore, from the district just north of the Ryan-Bryce district endorsed Bryce. Ryan has never campaigned for reelection with Pocan and Moore working to help elect his opponent. 2018 is going to be a very different race for him.