Saturday, June 04, 2016

What Does California Have In Store For Hillary On Tuesday-- And For The GOP In November?


The California Republican Party does not allow the millions of Decline To State voters (independents) to vote in their primaries. The Democratic Party does. A new poll from the L.A. Times released yesterday-- by a pro-Hillary polling firm--indicates that these voters overwhelmingly favor Bernie Sanders and that if they turn out in large numbers on Tuesday, Bernie will win the crucial California primary. The poll found that among likely Democratic Party primary voters on Tuesday, 44% are ready to vote for Bernie and 43% are ready to settle for Hillary. Among regular Democratic voters, though, Hillary is ahead 46-42%, while among independents, Bernie crushes her, 50-34%. The outcome of the primary hinges on how many independents turn out and ask for a Democratic Party ballot.

Furthermore, the poll showed that enthusiasm for Bernie is higher-- even among garden variety Democrats than it is for Hillary. When asked to imagine a scenario where she is the nominee against Trump in November and if they would vote for her enthusiastically, vote for her reluctantly, or refuse to vote for her, 49% were enthusiastic supports (including 57% of Democrats and 34% of independents), 25% were reluctant (including 24% of Democrats and 28% of independents) and 22% say they just will not vote for her (including 15% of Democrats and an ominous 35% of independents).

Nice hat! Latinos in CA-25 have rushed to register to vote in unprecedented numbers

When the same voters were asked to imagine a Bernie vs Trump contest in November, the outcome is markedly different. 59% of voters are enthusiastic supporters (including 65% of Democrats-- 8 points higher than for Hillary-- and a significant 48% of independents). 21% are reluctant Bernie voters (including 20% of Democrats and 22% of independents) and the refuseniks drop down to just 14%-- 8 points better than for Hillary.

The poll included a November head-to-head match-up between Hillary and Trump that shows her beating Trump 56-30%-- 48-42% among whites and 73-11% among Latinos. Keep in mind that in 2004 Bush won 32% of California Latinos and in 2012, Romney won 27% of California Latinos. Trump's performance among Latinos in California puts Republican congressional incumbents David Valadao, Jeff Denham, and Steve Knight in the "dead duck" category and should should even make Republicans like Darrell Issa and Ed Royce feel vulnerable. What is Trump doing to fix this potentially catastrophic situation he created? That's easy: making it worse. Watch Republican commentators Megan Kelly and Bill Bennett discussing Trump's sick and uncontrollable bigotry towards Hispanic-Americans on Fox News (from Thursday night):

Labels: , , ,


Post a Comment

<< Home