Will Bernie Have An Impact Even If American Voters Elect A Status Quo Candidate?

Yesterday Bernie drew 43.6% at the polls in Pennsylvania and John Fetterman, the Senate candidate who had endorsed him and was running on his platform, drew a mere 19.3% of the vote (better than most polling had been predicting but still less than half of Bernie's voters). In Maryland Bernie took just 33.3% of the vote, while Donna Edwards only got 38.8%. Although Donna and Bernie were running on a similar progressive package of issues and values, she had endorsed Hillary. And Maryland was not one of the states that Schumer forbade Bernie to "interfere" with.

Although this is basically news being mostly-- though not entirely-- suppressed by the establishment media, Schumer threatened Bernie with the loss of the Senate Budget Committee chair if he did anything to help Fetterman, P.G. Sittenfeld in Ohio or Alan Grayson in Florida. Expect the story to go mainstream in the next couple of weeks... and, meanwhile, rejoice that you get your news here at DWT before the NY Times editors do. These are the presidential primary results from last night:

Connecticut: Hillary- 51.7%, Bernie- 46.5%
Delaware: Hillary- 59.8%, Bernie- 39.2%
Maryland: Hillary- 63.0%, Bernie- 33.3%
Pennsylvania: Hillary- 55.6%, Bernie- 43.6%
Rhode Island: Bernie- 55.0%, Hillary- 43.3%

Other significant results:

• PA-02- Scandal-soaked incumbent Chaka Fattah lost to Dwight Evans-- 42.2% to 34.5%.
• PA-07- In a stunning upset that caught the corrupt DC establishment off-guard, grassroots progressive Mary Ellen Balchunis slaughtered the DCCC candidate, Bill Golderer-- 73.8% to 26.2%
• MD-04- Progressive Joseline Pena-Melnyk was defeated by both establishment candidates, Anthony Brown (41.6%) and Glenn Ivey (34.1%), to her 19.0%.
• MD-08- The only great news out of Maryland was that progressive Jamie Raskin beat David Trone (27.4%)-- the rich beer seller who spent over $12 million of his own money on the race-- and Chris Matthews' lobbyist wife (23.8%) with 33.7%.

Monday I read Greg Sargent's Washington Post column about the possible impact of Bernie's revolution in light of changes in young voters detected by a newly released poll from Harvard's Institute of Politics. Let's go beyond the poll's findings that Bernie is the most popular politician among voting age Americans under thirty.

The Director of the Institute, Maggie Williams, pointed out that "millennials care deeply about their futures and in this election cycle they are laser-focused on issues like access to educational opportunity, women’s equality and the economy [and that the] survey reflects their passion, their worries and most importantly, a growing awareness that their voices have power."

In the Past Year, 18- to 29-Year-Olds Net Preference Nearly Doubled for Democrats to Maintain Control of White House. Young Americans prefer that a Democrat win the White House over a Republican in the 2016 presidential race. More than three in five (61%) prefer that a Democrat win the White House, while 33% prefer a Republican. The divide of 28 points is nearly double what it was in Spring 2015, when the divide was 15 percentage points (55% Democrat; 40% Republican). Among young white voters, Democrats now have a 2-percentage point advantage (-12: Spring 2015), among African American voters, that advantage grows to 78 percentage points (79: Spring 2015) and among Hispanics, the advantage is 55 points (41: Spring 2015).

...Sanders is Only Candidate with Net Positive Rating, Trump -20 With GOP.  Senator Bernie Sanders is the only one of the five candidates with a net positive favorability rating. 54% of 18- to 29-year-olds rate Sanders favorably and 31% view him unfavorably (+23 favorable: Net). On the other hand, Donald Trump’s net favorability rating is -57. Among young Republicans, 37% view him favorably and 57% view him unfavorably (-20 unfavorable: Net).

Men and Women Differ on Who Would Improve Women’s Lives the Most. When asked which of the five remaining presidential candidates would most improve the lives of women, Clinton leads 29% to 25% compared to Sanders, with 32% undecided. No Republican candidate received more than 5 percentage points (5%: Cruz; 4%: Trump; 2%: Kasich). Analyzing the results among men only, Clinton has an 11-point advantage over Sanders (32%: Clinton; 21%: Sanders). When we analyze the responses of women, identifying the candidate who would most improve women’s lives, Sanders edges Clinton (Sanders: 30%; Clinton: 26%).

Obama and Congressional Democrats Receive Highest Approval in 5 Years; 72% Believe President Should Fill SCOTUS Vacancy. Both President Obama and Democrats in Congress have seen their approval ratings increase by 5 percentage points since our last poll was released in Fall 2015. President Obama and Congressional Democrats received the highest approval rating since February 2011. President Obama’s approval rating improved in most major subgroups across the board, with the greatest increases on college campuses (61%: Spring 2016; 53%: Feb. 2011) and among African Americans (86%: Spring 2016; 78%: Feb. 2011).

72% of young Americans believe that President Obama should nominate a justice to fill the current vacancy on the U.S. Supreme Court. Only 23% say he should not nominate. Among Democrats, 89% say he should nominate and of those, 53% say he should nominate whomever he wants and 36% say he should nominate a consensus pick. 49% of Republicans say he should nominate a candidate to fill the vacancy and of those, 12% say he should nominate whomever he wants and 37% say he should nominate a consensus pick.

Sargent underlined a key finding-- that young people see a robust role for government in guaranteeing a right to a basic standard of living, and majorities of them see a large or moderate federal role in regulating the economy and access to health care and higher education.

• A plurality of these young voters agree by 48-21 that “basic health insurance is a right for all people, and if someone has no means of paying for it, the government should provide it.”

• A plurality of them agree by 45-20 that the “government should spend more to reduce poverty.”

• A plurality of them agree by 47-20 that “basic necessities, such as food and shelter, are a right that the government should provide to those unable to afford them.”

• A majority of them, 67 percent say the federal government should play a “large” (30) or “moderate” (37) role in the “regulation of Wall Street,” while only 28 percent say it should play little to no role.

• A majority of them, 66 percent, say the federal government should play a large (32) or moderate (34) role in the delivery of health care, while only 31 percent say it should play little to no role.

• A majority of them, 70 percent, say the federal government should play a large (35) or moderate (35) role in “providing access to higher education,” while only 27 percent say it should play little to no role.

• A majority of them, 69 percent, say the federal government should play a large (27) or moderate (42) role in “regulating the economy,” while only 27 percent say it should play little to no role.

Harvard’s polling director, John Della Volpe said that Bernie is "not moving a party to the left. He’s moving a generation to the left. Whether or not he’s winning or losing, it’s really that he’s impacting the way in which a generation-- the largest generation in the history of America-- thinks about politics."