Monday, January 25, 2016

Herr Trumpf Should Have The Republican Nomination In Hand In 6-7 Weeks


This is the Republican Party 2016

A week from tomorrow the first votes in the 2016 presidential election get cast as Iowans go out to caucus. Polling released yesterday shows Herr Trumpf beating back the Cruz threat in Iowa and across the country to the point where Cruz is looking more like he'll go to Cleveland as a Texas favorite son candidate-- the way Rand Paul will go as a Kentucky favorite son candidate-- rather than as an actual contender for the nomination, or even as someone able to deadlock the convention and stop Herr Trumpf's nomination. This morning's endorsement of Cruz by former Texas Governor Rick Perry isn't worth a single delegate. And yesterday one of Cruz's SuperPACs-- the Courageous Conservatives PAC-- attacked Iowa's Republican governor Terry Branstad in a statewide radio ad, not a good idea. Something tells me Iowa Republicans are not going to appreciate hearing this: "America wants a leader who walks tall and stands up against the lobbyist thugs and the politicians they own. Branstad and Trump. Branstad values; Trump values. Cruz can’t be bought and they hate him for it."

The CBS/YouGov polling for Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, Georgia, Texas and Florida indicates Trumpf will be the Republican nominee... in a walk. He has substantial leads in every state but Texas, where Cruz leads 45-30% and in Iowa, where Trumpf is ahead 39-34%. Rubio is in third place but not really a threat and Kasich's surge in New Hampshire, 4th place with 10%, leaves him twiddling his thumbs and with nowhere to go but back to Columbus. Trumpf's best state is Florida (41%), where he crushes unfavorite sons Rubio (18%) and Jeb (4%). When will Jeb stop humiliating himself and trashing the family brand?

In Iowa Herr Trumpf reversed the Cruz momentum with a relentless full on attack and Cruz's 40-31% lead in December is now a Trumpf 39-34% lead. Rubio's at 13% there and the Des Moines Register endorsement isn't going to do much for him. Jeb, Fiorina, Santorum and Kasich are all bunched up at 1%, beating Huckabee at ZERO, who has already announced that if he doesn't win in Iowa, he's quitting the race. (He's also at ZERO in New Hampshire and in Florida; it's just not his year.) It's worth mentioning that 63% of Iowa Republicans say they could never consider voting for Trumpf, while only 33% and 36% say they same thing about, respectively, Cruz and Rubio.

After Cruz loses Iowa, he'll face Trumpf in New Hampshire where Trumpf leads 34-16%, with Rubio on his ass with 14% and Kasich coming up with 10%. Christie with his Union-Leader endorsement has managed it tie Jeb with his millions and millions of dollars in annoying and ineffective TV and radio ads, at 7% for 5th place. (Christie is at 2% in Iowa and a fifth place finish in New Hampshire should send him back to Trenton to try to make amends with his own constituents who hate him and are unlikely to even give him favorite son status.

For the Southerners who though Cruz could slay Herr Trumpf down in the Old Confederacy, South Carolina shows him with about half of Trumpf's support, 40-21%, Cruz with negative momentum. And in Georgia, Trumpf is kicking his butt 39-29%. Lindsey Graham's endorsement of Jeb seems to have been worth 1 point in South Carolina and Jeb is now at 8% (5th place), while Trey Gowdy's endorsement of Rubio was also worth a point, Rubio now at 13% instead of December's 12%.

At this point, people will be wondering more and more frequently what Trumpf is going too be looking for in a running mate. There seems too much bad blood to shore things up with the far right by picking Cruz. I guess he could pick a Jefferson Beauregard Sessions if he wanted to go that route or a Mike Lee. Or will he be looking more towards the general anyway and go in the earliest direction he spoke about-- a candidate like Oprah Winfrey? Or at least a mainstream type candidate-- if he could even find one who would want to run with him. Would Kasich? I can't imagine it. I have a feeling he'll give very strong consideration to a non-politician, possibly a woman. Lots of time to speculate on that though. Trumpf should have the primary wrapped up by the middle of March unless Rubio can pull off some kind of miracles in Florida, Illinois, Missouri, North Carolina and Ohio on March 15. It's over on that day if Trumpf wins the five states, or even if he wins any three of them.

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At 7:38 AM, Blogger Anthony Kennerson said...

Two words: Sarah. Palin.

At 12:33 PM, Anonymous OldVet said...

If Herr tRumph desires a woman on his ticket, the repub party is a 'big tent'. Sarah Palin, Michelle Bachmann, and Snarly Fiorina are among the best known names among the repub crazies. A long shot would be the Indian governor of South Carolina, but while her policies are as horrible as any repub governor; she is probably insufficiently wacko for the base.

More likely, Herr tRumph will select a 'yes-man/woman' who will grovel at his feet. Sarah may qualify on both sides of this equation and she has experience in dealing with the 'lame stream media' and stirring up the craziest of the repub base.


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