Will Yet Another Bout Of DCCC Ineptitude Guarantee A Third Win For Republican David Valadao In A Blue California District?

DCCC and EMILY's List working towards a redux

Republican David Valadao is the congressman from CA-21-- a Central Valley district that includes all of heavily Hispanic Kings county and chunks of Fresno and Kern counties, including the Hispanic neighborhoods of Bakersfield, Fresno's southern and western suburbs, Hanford, Delano, Wasco, Coalinga and Mendota. The district is 72.1% Latino, has a D+2 PVI saw Obama beat McCain 52-46% and then beat Romney 55-44% and yet... sheer DCCC incompetence has saddled the district with Republican David Valadao as a congressman. In the last election Valadao whalloped ridiculous DCCC-EMILY's List recruit Amanda Renteria 41,167 (58.5%) to 29,244 (41.5%). Two years earlier-- with Obama wracking up a big win against Romney, Valadao had also prevailed, this time against John Hernandez, President of the Central California Hispanic Chamber of Commerce, 67,164 (57.8%) to 49,119 (42.2%). Although Hernandez edged Valadao in Kern County (52-48%), Valadao racked up big wins in Fresno County (61-39%) and Kings County (70-30%). In 2012 the DCCC had refused to help Hernandez and he spent $99,754 to Valadao's $1,181,113 (who also had $592,026 thrown into the race on his behalf by Rove and another $27,466 from McCarthy's, Ryan's and Cantor's Young Guns PAC). Last year the DCCC did make an effort to help Renteria. She spent $1,690,530 against Valadao's $2,732,693. The DCCC put a paltry $94,400 into the race on behalf of Renteria while the NRCC spent $118,625 for Valadao, which was dwarfed by the $550,150 the U.S. Chamber of Commerce spent on Valadao.

2016 could be a bad year for Valadao. People are disgusted with the inability of the House Republicans to get beyond their internal petty bickering and do the people's business for starters. On top of that, he had continued to amass ax execrable voting record against one popular position after another. The Democratic turnout in a presidential (and senatorial) year is likely to be extremely high. And yesterday Valadao was hit with an ethics complaint "for violating 31 U.S.C. § 1301 and House ethics rules prohibiting official resources from being used for campaign or political purposes."

This cycle Air Force vet and Fowler City Councilman (since 2008) and Mayor pro tem, Daniel Parra seemed the likely Democratic opponent. He was born into an impoverished farm family and worked in the fields before joining the Air Force. He has a huge number of endorsements from California elected officials and from organizations and he sounds like a pretty standard decent Democratic Party candidate. From his bio: "I'm running for Congress because of the contradiction that my community faces: America wouldn't be able to eat without the food grown in my district, yet too many people in my district don't have enough to eat. The #1, #2, and #3 agricultural Counties in the United States all lie within California's 21st-- yet two of the nation's five poorest cities also are in my district. My story is not unlike the story of thousands of people in my district. I grew up in a small town called Parlier-- which today has a poverty rate of nearly 50- - that's double the poverty rate of Detroit... The United States Air Force gave me a chance to better my life and I took it. I learned how to repair computers, and I was able to make a career out of it at Northrop Grumman. I'm one of the lucky ones. I have dedicated my life since then to helping the less fortunate, because the great depression never ended in my district. I was spurred to run because my opponent-- a multi-millionaire farmer-- doesn't get that people are hurting in our district. In one of the poorest districts in the country, he has voted again and again to slash Medicaid, Social Security, Head Start, Food Stamps, and other programs that our community relies on-- instead voting to increase subsidies toward his own farms. As a Fresno Economic Opportunity Commissioner, I oversee many of the programs my opponent wants to cut, and I grew up with many of the people they help."

But the DCCC isn't one of the organizations backing him and, in fact, they seem to have teamed up with EMILY's List again to recruit another terrible candidate with no chance of winning, this time former non-Democrat Connie Perez. The DCCC is unhappy Parra hasn't raised enough money and EMILY's List is unhappy he has the wrong plumbing. An outsider from Pasadena, Perez, is just the kind of rich stiff the DCCC and EMILY's List always goes for-- and loses with. She's Amanda Renteria but without the knowledge of any issues.

But Parra shows no signs of backing down, setting up the possibility of a three-person primary election next June. Only the top two finishers, regardless of political party, advance to the November general election. When asked for comment, the Parra campaign responded with a written statement from Michael Evans, chairman of the Fresno County Democratic Party.

“Central Valley Democrats are enthusiastically united behind lifelong Democrat Daniel Parra’s campaign for Congress,” Evans’ statement said. “He is the only candidate who is truly homegrown here in the Central Valley, who shares our values and who we are fully confident will fight on our behalf in Washington. Unlike this prospective opponent, who appears to be a recent convert to the Democratic Party and is currently registered to vote in Pasadena-- a metropolitan area well outside of the district-- Daniel Parra is a committed, lifelong Democrat who is firmly dedicated to our party and our principles.”

Before the DCCC and EMILY's List jumped in on behalf of Perez, Allan Hoffenblum, publisher of the California Target Book, thought Parra had a chance of replacing Valadao next year.

“Some have said that Parra is not a strong candidate,” he said. “But I heard the same thing about the little-known dairy farmer, David Valadao, when he first ran for (California) Assembly.”

Next year features a presidential election and a strong California U.S. Senate race, he said, so more people will turn out to vote.

“Voters in this district will vote Democratic for the first two,” Hoffenblum said.

Whether those voters also vote Democratic in the congressional race will determine whether Valadao keeps his seat, Hoffenblum said. The most recent registration numbers for the 21st District show 47.4 percent are Democrats, 31 percent are Republicans and 17.9 percent have no party preference.

Cal State Bakersfield Political Science Professor Mark Martinez said Parra needs to learn from the losses of the past two Democrats who’ve challenged Valadao.

“The people from Sacramento and Washington don’t always know what’s best,” Martinez said.

Parra will need to connect with voters on a very local level to make headway, Martinez said. And he will have to blunt Valadao’s strong support in Republican-heavy Kings and Tulare county sections of the 21st District.

Parra doesn’t have to win in those areas, he said, but he does have to blunt the overwhelming margins of victory Valadao has commanded in those Republican areas.

UPDATE: Perez Quits

The DCCC candidate dropped out of the race against Valadao, basically because she was unable to raise any money and would have probably lost a primary battle against Daniel Parra.

When Perez launched her campaign, state Sen. Dean Florez, D-Shafter, said Democrats have fared badly in the 21st District due to a "lack of a strong 'hometown' Kern County elected official that actually owns a home, has a family and has done well at the ballot in the past."

On Tuesday, Florez shared thoughts on her exit.

"On the face of it, it looks like another case of outside interests trying to manufacture a political campaign by trying to 'find' the best match-up rather than fostering real home-grown leaders in the Central Valley," he said by email. "As a candidate, at first, it's fun when outside party tacticians flatter you with promises of support and facts and figures showing how you can win, which I'm guessing happened to Perez."

Short version: another race the incompetent DCCC has ruined for the Democrats who will never take back the House until that whole nest of imbeciles is cleaned out-- starting with the corrupt and venal Steve Israel and his sock puppet Ben Ray Luján.