Tuesday, September 01, 2015

Sanders Within Striking Distance of Clinton in Iowa


Graphic showing latest Clinton-Sanders poll results in Iowa via the Des Moines Register & Bloomberg Politics, with an editorializing headline (source)

by Gaius Publius

I recently did a piece about Sanders doing very well in New Hampshire, the nation's second Democratic primary. According to the polling firm PPP (my emphasis throughout):
There's been a big shift on the Democratic side since April as well. Bernie Sanders now leads the field in the state with 42% to 35% for Hillary Clinton, 6% for Jim Webb, 4% for Martin O'Malley, 2% for Lincoln Chafee, and 1% for Lawrence Lessig.
Now comes similar news from Iowa, the first-in-the-nation Democratic primary contest. Bloomberg:
Sanders Within Striking Distance of Clinton in Iowa

Hillary Clinton’s once-prohibitive advantage in Iowa has slipped enough to jeopardize her front-runner status and Bernie Sanders has moved to within striking distance, revealing a Democratic presidential field in unexpected flux as Vice President Joe Biden mulls whether to make a late entrance into the race.

The results of the latest Bloomberg Politics/Des Moines Register Iowa Poll, released Saturday, show Clinton is now the first choice of 37 percent of likely Democratic caucus-goers in the state where the first ballots of the presidential contest will be cast early in 2016. She's followed by Sanders at 30 percent and Biden at 14 percent. It’s the first time the poll has had Clinton's support under 50 percent.

In May, the Iowa Poll put Clinton, a former secretary of state, U.S. senator and first lady, at 57 percent, Sanders at 16 percent, and Biden at 8 percent.
The rest of the poll results are interesting as well, including this:
The biggest surprise is Sanders. Unlike his recent strong showing in New Hampshire polls, his performance here cannot be dismissed as a result of the Vermont lawmaker’s regional appeal.

The survey of 404 likely Democratic caucus attendees, conducted Aug. 23-26, shows the self-declared socialist, who serves as an independent in the U.S. Senate, packing a powerful appeal in the nation's rural heartland. In the last two months, Sanders' favorability rating has jumped to 73 percent from 57 percent among likely Democratic caucus-goers.

"On paper, he’s not the kind of candidate that traditionally ends up as the nominee," Selzer said of Sanders. "But he’s making them feel good about being a Democrat."
More at the link, including some interesting graphics.

Bloomberg focuses a bit on the email scandal (or "scandal," depending on your point of view). I agree with pro-Clinton activists that the media is pushing that narrative, independent of its value, in the same way they pushed the Al Gore "invented the Internet" story as a way to tar someone they disliked. On the other hand, I'm reserving judgment about whether it is a scandal or "scandal," and if the former, on what basis.

That said, the Sanders campaign looks perfectly viable through Super Tuesday if he does well or, even better, splits wins in the first two races. And I'm looking forward to those debates, meager and thinly scheduled as they are. Sanders certainly knows how to be on point, as his recent CNN State of the Union appearance shows.

(If you'd like to help the Sanders campaign, you can donate here; adjust the split any way you wish at the link.)


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At 10:30 AM, Blogger Mf Lehman said...

If you know Iowa caucus-goers, it has been inevitable since Bernie got in that the race would tighten up a lot. Clinton just doesn't play well with hard-core Iowa Democrats. Moreover, her refusal to get into Iowa living rooms with 30 assembled neighbors and do detail/retail Hawkeye thing makes her look stuck up to Iowans, and that is a death blow. Let's face it: Hills is NOT a natural like her hubby and it hurts her.

At 6:15 PM, Blogger ifthethunderdontgetya™³²®© said...

I'm for Sanders all the way, of course.

But I have to note the Democratic party has tilted the scales to prevent a non-corporatist from winning.

They'd rather lose elections than control of the party.

At 10:45 AM, Anonymous ARIC said...

The debates are meager because Clinton does not want to take positions on major issues and they want her exposure to be limited. Sanders does not want to criticize but he's going to have to at least on the Clinton campaign's secrecy and corruption if he wants to put the Clinton campaign in a major bind.

The real scandals are waiting in the wings. The Clinton foundation's retention of hundreds of thousands of dollars of criminal bank UBS' cash is deeply improper. Not illegal, but deeply improper based on Clinton's getting thousands of U.S. tax evaders off the hook with that self same corporation as Secretary of State.

We've been conditioned that mere impropriety is acceptable. It is not.

All of the above is from someone who is NOT a Sanders supporter, nor a Clinton.


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