DCCC Surrenders NY-11 To GOP

The DCCC has one skill-- losing congressional races

Last February we explained that the "new" Luján-run DCCC threw in the towel on the Staten Island congressional race even faster than the DCCC usually gives up. NY-11 is Michael Grimm's old seat, which has a growing Democratic edge. In 2008 Obama lost to McCain, 51-48%, but four years later Obama beat Romney 52-47%, a pretty significant swing. A competent DCCC would immediately recognize something to build on. Steve Israel and his puppet, Ben Ray Luján, aren't even vaguely competent and they've decided to just surrender without a fight. Brooklyn City Councilman Vincent Gentile is a weak candidate against Republican SI District Attorney Dan Donovan in the May 5 special election, but the DCCC failed to find anyone better and then just walked off the field of battle. It augurs poorly for what would be a great 2016 for House Democrats if Israel (and Luján) were not running the DCCC.

Over the weekend, the New York Daily News pointed out that the DCCC has quietly but completely thrown in the towel.

The decision highlights the long odds Democrats face in reclaiming a House majority in the near future. Winning back a majority requires winning seats in places like the 11th district, where President Obama won 52% of votes in 2012.

Staten Island District Attorney Dan Donovan, a Republican, is left to cruise to election over City Councilman Vincent Gentile in the May 5 special election to replace former GOP Rep. Michael Grimm, who resigned after pleading guilty to tax fraud.

The disinterest in the contest is notable due to the national attention Grimm’s demise drew, and the controversy attached to Donovan, who failed to win a grand jury indictment of an NYPD officer whose videotaped chokehold led to the death of Eric Garner.

But Democrats bowed out before Gov. Cuomo even scheduled the election, because their polling and turnout models showed little chance of beating Donovan.

“It wouldn’t be smart for them to invest a lot of money in the special,” said a New York Democratic consultant who explained the perspective of the DCCC, which declined to comment.

The DCCC spent a whopping $5 million last year to defeat Grimm. The committee is spending nothing to help Gentile.

With enough turnout among young and minority voters who lean heavily Democratic, Democrats can compete in the district.

With far lower turnout in a special election, older, white conservative-leaning voters form a bigger piece of the pie, handing Republicans a huge edge.

...[T]he national party's absence strikes some local Democrats, who declined to be identified faulting the committee, as surrender.

“The special is your chance to build up the organization, so you can compete next year,” said one local Democrat. “It’s a chance to hit Donovan and soften him up for 2016.”

The Rothenberg/Gonzales Political Report, which handicaps congressional races, has noted that in 101 House special elections in the last 25 years, every winner kept the seat in the next race, except six instances that involved special circumstances.

That suggests Donovan is well-positioned to keep the seat, and Republicans their House majority, past 2016.

Or maybe House Democrats will figure out what's going on and really end the Steve Israel reign, even if Pelosi is unable or unwilling to. It's too late for Staten Island now but still salvageable for 2016-- although it won't be for long. Not with clowns and losers like Israel, Luján and Kelly Ward running the show.