The Case For CA-25

CA-25 was radically restructured in 2010, going from the biggest congressional district in California-- which stretched from the northern L.A. County suburbs as far as the suburbs of Sacramento-- to a more rational and compact district that includes most of Simi Valley, all of the Santa Clarita Valley and the high desert areas of northern Los Angeles County (the Antelope Valley). It had a slight Republican lean in 2010, although Obama still managed to beat McCain 124,377 (49%) to 123,454 (49%). Against incumbent corrupt Beltway powerhouse Buck McKeon, the DCCC ignored the potential of flipping a district. In 2010, the year after Obama won CA-25, the Democratic candidate was Jackie Conaway, an unknown who spent a grand total of $4,172 (against Mckeon's $1,334,590). He won with 62%. When local Democrats nominated a more viable candidate in 2012, Lee Rogers, the DCCC undercut him and appeared to be completely uninterested in dislodging McKeon. Rogers held McKeon down to a 55% share of the vote and ran again in 2014-- again with negative help from the DCCC. The DCCC's Steve Israel adamantly refused to help Rogers, a progressive, and that directly resulted in a general election pitting two Republicans against each other.

Meanwhile, though, the district has been changing demographically. Old white people are becoming a smaller and smaller percentage of the voting population, and a few months ago the district flipped, in terms of voter registration, from being the equivalent of an R+1 to a D+1 district. Perfect opportunity for a Democratic takeover-- especially with Hillary Clinton at the top of the ticket and with a weak GOP freshman incumbent who has made no impression on the voters (Steve Knight).

Instead, they're edging towards another one of those DINO characters, this one County Water Board member Maria Gutzeit. Gutzeit calls herself a Democrat, but her backing comes from Republicans, like local developer Larry Rasmussen. She's been dreadful on the Water Board and would wind up being a typical New Dem type who always puts the interests of Big Business ahead of the interests of working families. She's as perfect for EMILY's List as she is for the New Dems.

Rogers is moving to Arizona and won't be running again but, along with other local progressives, has been talking with former Los Angeles Police Department supervisor Lou Vince about running for the seat. Vince, a former marine, lives in Agua Dulce, in the heart of the district, and is a progressive by nature and by temperament.

The district is perfect for a 2016 Democratic pickup-- unless the DCCC forces a DINO into the nomination and screws it up again, which they well may do.