Too Early To Predict A Scott Brown Wipeout In New Hampshire?

At this point, no one even knows for sure that opportunistic Massachusetts carpetbagger Scott Brown will actually be the candidate New Hampshire Republicans decide to run against popular Senator Jeanne Shaheen. Former Senator Robert Smith, an underdog and crackpot who's running to the right of Brown, appears stronger with the GOP base than anyone had thought-- despite the endorsements Brown has trotted out from the mistrusted GOP Establishment (Romney, Ayotte, Sununu. Merrill…). Most polls of Republican voters show "undecided" in the top slot. That said, let's go along with conventional wisdom and assume that Brown makes it through the primary-- on which he hasn't spent one dime to the $119,385 Smith has spent and the $51,461 Karen Testerman has spent. (Testerman dropped her bid on June 13 and endorsed Smith: "I am going to step aside and let Bob Smith be the only name on the Republican primary ballot that is a conservative.")

Yesterday's Concord Monitor was trumpeting the new WMUR Granite State poll (more on the unreliability of that operation below) that shows Shaheen kicking Brown's butt from Seabrook to Pittsburg.

Shaheen holds a comfortable lead against all of her Republican challengers, a new WMUR Granite State Poll released tonight shows. Her 12-point lead over Scott Brown, the likely Republican nominee, is double what it was in April when Brown made his candidacy official. The margin of error is 4.3 percent.

…Fifty-seven percent of people surveyed have a favorable opinion of Shaheen’s job performance, which is near the high end of her approval ratings since she was elected in 2007. Meanwhile, all of her opponents have net negative ratings, meaning more people have an unfavorable view of them than a favorable one. Overall, the poll shows Shaheen in a position to win a second term. Many voters, however, pay little attention to politics in the summer and only 17 percent of people surveyed said they have definitely decided who they will vote for in November.

...If the election were held today, Brown would take 38 percent of the vote compared to Shaheen’s 50. In comparison, she leads Smith 47 to 34 percent and Rubens 56 to 30 percent. Smith called on Rubens to drop out of the race earlier this week and these poll results will likely only strengthen those calls.

When it comes to favorability, 31 percent of people like Brown while 40 percent have an unfavorable opinion of him, with a margin of error of 3.8 percent. Only 18 percent of people see Smith favorably while 55 percent don’t know enough about him to say. Rubens, who has been campaigning the longest, has a 10 percent approval rating with 77 percent of voters not knowing enough to say.

Caveats. First of all, as of the last FEC reporting deadline, Shaheen had raised $7,378,748 and spent an astronomical $3,037,316-- and with no primary opponent, all bolstering herself against Brown. She had $4,351,281 cash-on-hand, which has probably grown appreciably since then. Brown had only raised $274,728 and hadn't spent a dime of it. Smith raised $217,854 and spent, with Brown in his sights, $119,385. Keep in mind, of course, that just two years ago Brown's status as Wall Street's favorite senator allowed him to spend $35,058,354 in a futile effort to keep his seat in Massachusetts. Wall Street will be there for him again-- although, as of now, outside groups have spent $1,146,716 attacking Brown and Republican outside groups have only spent $70,222 helping Brown and $91,072 attacking Shaheen. If Brown wins the September 9 primary, the big Wall Street and right-wing cash will start flowing into New Hampshire. (Brown has refused to make the same deal-- the People's Pledge-- with Shaheen to keep outside money out of the race that he made with Elizabeth Warren in Massachusetts.)

Caveat #2: As Nate Cohn pointed out in yesterday's NY Times polling isn't worth much this far out before the midterms. Polling averages are poisoned by untrustworthy partisan outfits like Rasmussen which aren't really polling firms as much as propaganda extensions of the political parties who whomever else with an agenda is paying them. And as Daily Kos pointed out, polling from WMUR has to be taken with-- at best-- a grain of salt. They were looking at the bizarre results from NH-01 in the same polling we referred to above for the Senate race.

I think I'm finally ready to give up on UNH's polling once and for all. Check out their latest numbers from New Hampshire's 1st Congressional District. Starting in October of last year, Democratic Rep. Carol Shea-Porter had a 16-point lead on her likeliest GOP opponent, ex-Rep. Frank Guinta. Then in January, Guinta went up 6, followed by Shea-Porter going up 9 in April, and now Guinta leaping back out in front by 3. Five polls, four lead changes, and often with huge shifts-- just look at this crazy chart. Seriously, wtf?