Arkansas Senate Race-- Who Believes In God, And Talking Snakes, More?

We haven't really been covering the Arkansas elections this cycle. Basically, all the contests are classic lesser or two evils situations-- Democrats rated D or F and Republicans rated F-minus. Is there anything less than an F these days? All the grotesque DCCC recruits will lose spectacularly, wasting immense amounts of money that could have been used to win actual seats for actual progressives in actual swing districts-- like MI-06 (Upton vs Clements) and WA-08 (Reichert vs Ritchie)-- or could have been put to work on 2 cycle plans to take back relatively easy seats the DCCC isn't contesting at all, like FL-27 (Ros-Lehtinen), FL-13 (Jolly), NY-02 (King), WI-07 (Duffy), PA-07 (Meehan), PA-15 (Dent), CA-25 (open), and a dozen other primo opportunities Israel is wasting so he can fail with his collection of vile Blue Dogs and New Dems.

That said, the banner contest in Arkansas this year isn't in the House; it's between Mark Pryor, one of the most conservative and least bold members of the Senate, and Tom Cotton, an extremist lunatic to the right of Ted Cruz. A week or two ago, Cotton, who has consistently been out-polled by Pryor, was desperate enough to question Pryor's faith to a interviewer. Now there's a lot you can say about Pryor, but the man is a believing' bozo as you can see from the classic Bill Maher interview up top. At the bottom of the page is the TV ad Pryor put out yesterday, pouncing on Cotton's latest misstep. No one-- except extreme GOP partisans-- seems to like Cotton. He's not connecting. As U.S. News and World Report lamented yesterday, he comes across as wooden and academic in a state where retail politics matter. His own party has lost faith in him and are worrying that they're wasting the millions of dollars they're spending on what they now see as "a cold fish."

The overarching problem: While Cotton’s resume is sparkling, his persona is flat. He speaks with authority, but lacks warmth. His wooden delivery is more often academic, lacking an everyday, common touch that’s still essential in a place with slightly less than 3 million people, the smallest state in the south. His slender frame and boyish haircut makes him look even younger than his 37 years, a trait Democrats are attempting to subtly exploit as they portray Cotton as a bit too overeager as he seeks a promotion after just a single term in the House. He's a smash hit with the conservative commentariat class in Washington, but remains a largely unknown quantity to the everyday Arkansan.

“He talks like he’s at a dinner party at Bill Kristol’s house. There’s things I like about that, but that’s not the way you want to talk when running around Little Rock,” says one Beltway Republican operative closely following the race who has become measurably less confident about Cotton’s chances.

Some lament, when it matters most, Cotton is not even showing up. The freshman representative missed the Bradley County Pink Tomato Festival in his own district in June, a celebration attended by an estimated 30,000 that has become a marquee opportunity for political candidates to showcase their grinning, gripping and backslapping. Pryor rode in the parade, posed for pictures with ladies in tomato-cut aprons and spoke at a luncheon. When it came time for the candidates to compete in the fast-paced tomato eating contest, Cotton was nowhere to be found. Instead, The Nation reported Cotton was at a political event in California with the Koch Brothers, the libertarian-minded billionaires who have been villainized by Democrats for devoting their fortune to conservative causes and candidates.

…“Pryor was a dead man walking three months ago,” conceded a Democratic consultant in Washington. “But the momentum has shifted and it speaks more to Cotton’s weakness as a candidate than what Pryor’s done. It’s more about Cotton… His ads reinforce his negative quality-- which is, he moved back to run for office,” says the Democratic consultant.

…[O]ne Little Rock, Arkansas, donor who has met Cotton and contributed to his first congressional campaign told U.S. News he’s supporting Pryor in the Senate race due to what he sees as Cotton’s rigid ideological posture on a stream of issues.

“He’s a nice gentleman … but too far to the right,” the donor said on the condition of anonymity.

The contributor, who has given to several prominent Republicans in the past, including former Sen. Jesse Helms, R-N.C., also relayed that he was disheartened by Cotton’s lack of visibility after a tornado outbreak in late April.

“I did not see him anywhere showing his support to the people who truly suffered,” he says of Cotton.

When asked how Cotton could be perceived as unacceptable to someone who supported the arch-conservative Helms, the donor explained while he didn’t agree with Helms on many issues, he was impressed by his “commitment to his constituents.”

Republicans are already down to their last arrow in the quiver: "OK, Cotton isn't ready for the Senate and he's as bad in Arkansas as he's good Inside-the-Beltway but he's the one who can stop Obama(care)." If it doesn't work, a path to victory for the Senate Republicans becomes nearly impossible.