Kansas-- A Laboratory For Ultra-Conservative Ideas Throughout The Entire Country-- Is A Bust

Last month, Chris Hayes repeatedly brought up a state-- Kansas-- that few Democrats ever see as a realistic election target (above). Far right extremist Sam Brownback's gubernatorial reelection is not looking like a sure thing anymore. Unless you consider being down 47-41% against your Democratic opponent, Paul Davis, "a sure thing."

Kansas, the Koch-owned state, has no Democrats in federal office and was one of the only states in the country where voters gave Obama less than 40% in 2012. The state has a lopsided Republican legislature-- 31 Republicans and 9 Democrats in the state Senate and 90 Republicans and 35 Democrats in the House. And it's not all gerrymandering. 790,345 (44.6%) of the voters are registered Republicans and only 446,237 (25.2%) are Democrats-- significantly less than Independents. Extremist Tim Huelskamp didn't have a Democratic opponent in 2012 and the other 3 GOP incumbents all kept their opponent below 40%. This year the DCCC isn't contesting any of the House seats, although Huelskamp has drawn a Democratic opponent, Jim Sherow who would have a reasonable shot at beating him if Steve Israel and Debbie Wasserman Schultz would stop telling Democratic donors not to "waste" their money on his campaign.

Why would they do that instead of trying to re-build a populist base-- even if it takes a couple of cycles-- in Kansas.? Glad you asked-- and back up top at that Chris Hayes video, Thomas Frank (yes, the What's The Matter With Kansas guy) has endeavored to explain, prompted by a cleverly worded question from Hayes who contrasts old style Kansas progressive populism with "another tactic… essentially standing up for moderation, standing up for prudence and hoping to wage politics as a [movement to] 'let's get back to the center.' No really," he concluded, as Frank laughed (and so did Hayes). Frank:

You can't have a center if you don't have a left, Mr. Hayes. It's like geometry… you can't be balancing both sides if you don't have two sides. All the fire and energy are concentrated on the right and there is no comparable movement on the left.

There are so many examples of this in What's The Matter With Kansas-- I got it out and went over it again the other day-- of where the right deliberatively acts like a left wing movement and uses left-wing language. You saw this especially with the Tea Party movement-- deliberatively confusing the issue and appealing to people with old-timer progressive and populist language and they do this all the time. They have got The Discontent; they've captured it. And discontent is a growing field.

They might as well use the language; it's certainly been abandoned by the Republican wing of the Democratic Party. You won't hear any populism from sleazy Wall Street/K Street-owned corporate shills like Steve Israel, Steny Hoyer, Jim Himes, Ron Kind, Debbie Wasserman Schultz or any of the other sell-outs who are claiming the mantle of leadership within the Democratic House caucus. And how great it would be instead of that garbage we had more Elizabeth Warrens and more Sherrod Browns and Bernie Sanders and Alan Graysons who were willing to-- and capable of-- standing up and pointing out the grotesque failures of the bill of goods the Republican Party has sold the poor saps in places like Kansas. Yesterday, Andrew Prokop, writing for Vox, pointed out that Brownback's Kansas, which was supposed to be the GOP's tax-cut paradise can no longer pay its bills-- which is, after all, what happens when you cut taxes for the rich the way Ayn Rand told the GOP to. "In 2012," wrote Prokop, "Kansas governor Sam Brownback signed a massive tax cut into law, arguing that it would boost the state's economy. Eventually, he hoped to eliminate individual income taxes entirely. 'Our place, Kansas, will show the path, the difficult path, for America to go in these troubled times,' he said."

Yet though Brownback is running for reelection this fall in a deep red state, he's trailed his Democratic challenger in 3 of the 4 most recent polls-- and his marquee tax cut appears to be the main reason. Kansas is now hundreds of millions of dollars short in revenue collection, its job growth has lagged the rest of the nation, and Moody's has cut the state's bond rating. "Governor Brownback came in here with an agenda to reduce the size of government, reduce taxes, and create a great economic boom," says University of Kansas professor Burdett Loomis. "Now there's been a dramatic decline in revenues, no great increase in economic activity, and we've got red ink until the cows come home."

…Brownback's tax cut proposal came as Kansas's revenues were on an upswing. Spending cuts and a one-cent sales tax passed by Brownback's Democratic predecessor had combined with economic growth to give Kansas a surplus. Now, Brownback argued, his tax cuts would lead to even more success. "I firmly believe these reforms will set the stage for strong economic growth in Kansas," he said.

The governor proposed to cut income taxes on the state's highest earners from 6.45 percent to 4.9 percent, to simplify tax brackets, and to eliminate state income taxes on most small business income entirely. In a nod to fiscal responsibility, though, he proposed to end several tax deductions and exemptions, including the well-liked home mortgage interest deduction. This would help pay for the cuts.

Yet as the bill went through the state Senate, these deductions proved too popular, and legislators voted to keep them all. The bill's estimated price tag rose from about $105 million to $800 million, but Brownback kept supporting it anyway. "I'm gonna sign this bill, I'm excited about the prospects for it, and I'm very thankful for how God has blessed our state," he said.

Democrats, and some Republicans, weren't buying it. "It bankrupts the state within two years," said Rochelle Chronister, a former state GOP chair who helped organize moderate Republicans against Brownback's agenda. And the House Democratic leader, Paul Davis, laid down a marker. "There is no feasible way that private-sector growth can accommodate the price tag of this tax cut," he said. "Our $600 million surplus will become a $2.5 billion deficit within just five years." In return, Brownback's administration claimed the bill would create 23,000 jobs by 2020, and would lead 35,000 more people to move to Kansas.

After the cuts became law, it was undisputed that Kansas's revenue collections would fall. But some supply-side analysts, like economist Arthur Laffer, argued that increased economic growth would deliver more revenue that would help cushion this impact.

Yet it's now clear that the revenue shortfalls are much worse than expected. "State general fund revenue is down over $700 million from last year," Duane Goossen, a former state budget director, told me. "That's a bigger drop than the state had in the whole three years of the recession," he said-- and it's a huge chunk of the state's $6 billion budget. Goossen added that the Kansas's surplus, which had been replenished since the recession, "is now being spent at an alarming, amazing rate."

Kansas has to balance its budget every year, so when that surplus runs out, further spending cuts will be necessary. The declining revenues have necessitated extensive cuts in state education funding, according to the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities. Moody's cut of the state's bond rating this May was another embarrassment. And the economic benefits Brownback promised haven't materialized either. Chris Ingraham wrote at Wonkblog that Kansas's job growth has lagged behind the rest of the country, "especially in the years following the first round of Brownback tax cuts."

…Brownback's approval rating has plummeted-- in a recent poll by PPP, his 33 percent was actually lower than Barack Obama's 34 percent approval. This is good news for state House Democratic leader Paul Davis, who announced his run for governor last September. "I'm profoundly troubled by the direction our state has been heading over the past three years," he said in his first campaign email. "The wealthiest and well connected have gotten all the breaks, and the Kansas economy feels broken." In the most recent poll of the race, Davis leads Brownback by 6 points.