How Did The Democrats Allow Ohio To Turn Into Such An Electoral Hellhole?
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If we rule out cost-cutting, uniformity, and fraud as legitimate excuses to restrict the voting process in Ohio, what other explanations make sense? Why else would Republican lawmakers pass bills, signed into law by Republican Gov. John Kasich, that erect voting hurdles for Ohioans?Neatly gerrymandered by Republicans, Democrats hold only 4 of Ohio's 16 congressional seats. Last time voters were at the polls electing 12 Republican congressmen and only 4 Democratic congressmen, 2,827,710 (51%) voted for Obama and 2,,661,433 (48%) voted for Romney. In fact, on that same day, Ohio's very progressive U.S. senator, Sherrod Brown-- far more progressive than Obama or any of the congressional incumbents or the congressional candidates-- beat standard issue Republican hack Josh Mandel 51-45%. There are the PVI's of the 16 Ohio House seats. Nice how the districts were drawn to include just enough Republicans to win as many seats as possible, while throwing as many Democrats as feasible into as few districts as possible:
Why curtail early voting, regulate the mailing of absentee-ballot applications, and make provisional ballots harder to count? Why add to voting changes-- as Secretary Husted did-- by slashing evening and Sunday hours for early in-person voting?
He tried that in 2012, but a federal judge saw through his ruse. Ohio is a key swing state in presidential elections.
If Republicans could change the rules and limit access to a select bloc of voters, the outcome might change on Election Day. Sunday voting just ahead of the general election is widely popular with many black churches in urban centers.
Worshippers organize “souls to the polls” caravans after religious services. But if expanding access to the ballot box allows an influx of left-leaning voters to defeat right-leaning candidates, what’s the GOP to do?
Concoct a myth as cover for voter suppression. That’s what.
• OH-01- R+6 (Steve Chabot)The average Democratic district has a PVI of D+18.25 (plenty of Democrats to spare) and the average GOP district has a PVI of R+7.16 (safe but, other than Boehner's seat, not impregnable). There are two Republican seats that could be seen as vaguely vulnerable, Turner's and Joyce's. Obama won-- albeit narrowly-- Turner's district in 2008 and did better there in 2012 than in any other Republican-held seat (48%). Joyce's district wasn't bad for Obama either. McCain beat him 50-49% and Romney 51-48%, the second best showing in an Ohio red district.
• OH-02- R+8 (Brad Wenstrup)
• OH-03- D+17 (Joyce Beatty)
• OH-04- R+9 (Jim Jordan)
• OH-05- R+7 (Bob Latta)
• OH-06- R+8 (Bill Johnson)
• OH-07- R+6 (Bob Gibbs)
• OH-08- R+15 (John Boehner)
• OH-09- D+15 (Marcy Kaptur)
• OH-10- R+3 (Mike Turner)
• OH-11- D+30 (Marcia Fudge)
• OH-12- R+8 (Pat Tiberi)
• OH-13- D+11 (Tim Ryan)
• OH-14- R+4 (David Joyce)
• OH-15- R+6 (Steve Stivers)
• OH-16- R+6 (Jim Renacci)
Steve Israel's DCCC isn't interested in either seat. They didn't bother recruiting anyone to run in either. Both districts have grassroots candidates running. Turner's opponent is Robert Klepinger who hasn't even raised the $5,000 that would trigger as FEC report. And Joyce's opponent is Michael Wager, as credible as candidate as the Democrats could hope for. Sherrod Brown and former Governor Ted Strickland are behind him and have pushed the DCCC to back him. Wager, a strong and committed progressive who has been endorsed by Blue America, has raised over $400,000 and as of December 31 had $347,645 cash on hand. Israel has dragged his feet on Wager and, under increasing pressure from other Democrats wondering whose side Israel is playing for, finally put him on the Emerging Races list, one short of Red to Blue, the list that Israel uses to signal big donors that the DCCC is serious about a candidate. This month Jan Schakowsky will be in northeastern Ohio campaigning with Wager… while Israel fumes that she could be campaigning with his favored Ohio candidate, Jennifer Garrison, the only Ohioan who made it onto his Jumpstart list.
Garrison is probably the worst recruit this cycle and is so far to the right that she barely qualifies as a Democrat at all-- other than inside-the-Beltway. And why should a principled progressive like Schakowsky stump for Garrison? Garrison is against everything that Schakowsky has fought for her whole life. An anti-Choice fanatic and deranged and virulent homophobe, Garrison has been recruited by the Blue Dogs and devotes herself to political corruption and an anti-environment agenda. A Steve Israel dream candidate! He's throwing away realistic opportunities in OH-10 and OH-14 to pursue his demented and pointless Garrison fantasy. OH-06, where she's running, is an R+8 district and Obama only managed 45% against McCain and 43% against Romney.
In covering the selection of Garrison and Wager for the Emerging Races list, the Tribune Chronicle doesn't mention it was a demotion for Garrison and a promotion for Wager. They do mention, though, that Garrison has a primary opponent the DCCC is ignoring, progressive activist Greg Howard (also endorsed by Blue America).
Two candidates part of Red to Blue emerging races. Congressional candidates in the 14th District, Michael Wager and in the 6th District, Jennifer Garrison, are on the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee's list of "emerging races," according to a DCCC news release last week, to be campaigns that "are on track and working hard to put seats in play."
The listing puts the two on track to be included in the DCCC's Red to Blue Program, which highlights the top Democratic campaigns in the United States and offers the candidates "financial, communications, grassroots and strategic support."
Wager of Moreland Hills, the former chairman of the Cleveland Port Authority, is challenging Dave Joyce, a Russell Township Republican, who is after his second full term in the 14th District in November. Neither have primary election challengers.
In the 6th District, Garrison, a former state representative from Marietta, must first get around Democrat Gregory D. Howard of Albany in May's primary election to challenge Republican Bill Johnson, after his third term.
DCCC chairman Steve Israel said Wager is committed to growing the middle class, bettering the economy and creating jobs and that he is working hard "to put this seat in play so he can fight to lift middle class incomes and will work together to find solutions for Ohio families."
Israel had this to say about Garrison: She has put this seat into play "because she is a common-sense leader who will take a responsible approach to creating jobs and providing educational opportunity."
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| Mike Turner has a swing district but Steve Israel gives him reelection immunity |
Labels: gerrymandering, Jennifer Garrison, Michael Wager, Ohio, Red to Blue, voter suppression
posted by DownWithTyranny @ 10:00 AM
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2 Comments:
A very knowledgeable Ohio Democrat, as well connected as one can be, sent this comment and I thought I'd share it:
The real story is that the Obama victories in 2008 and 2012 are anomalies, produced by an incredibly sophisticated campaign organization, which learned critical lessons from Carl Rove’s 2004 Ohio strategy, and a ton of money. The organization and money don’t exist in gubernatorial elections, so the Republicans won in 2000 and 2010, and controlled the statehouse during redistricting. Sherrod Brown’s election was closer than the report below indicates, because there was a third (Libertarian) candidate, who siphoned off some Republican votes, and the Republican candidate was a real buffoon. A better Republican candidate might well have beaten Sherrod.
That said, Ohio is a good example of the effect of the gerrymandering of Congressional seats, and would benefit from a California-style non-partisan re-districting. Putting that aside for a moment as a long shot, the only other route to fair districts is to capture the state legislature, which is currently about two-thirds Republican in both houses. A majority of the members, which means a super-majority of the Republicans legislators, are members of the American Legislative Exchange Council (ALEC), a well-funded (Koch Brothers among others) right-wing group which promulgates model state legislation that embodies very conservative and Tea Party principles. Capturing the legislature is a back-breaking, multi-year effort that requires a well-funded and well-organized state Democratic Party to recruit, train and finance candidates. I think that in my lifetime the legislature was only Democratic during a few years in the late 1970s, as a result of Gov. John Gilligan's reorganization of the state party and a very strong union movement, which was undercut by the Regan appeal to blue collar democrats and the demise of the state’s industrial base of steel, rubber and automobiles. The two subsequent Democratic governors, Dick Celeste in the 1980s and Ted Strickland from 2006-2010, were not interested in, or able to accomplish, the construction of a modern Democratic party along the lines of the Obama campaign.
Of course the Obama campaign’s margin of victory was the heavy minority turnout, which has never been there for a white candidate (except for LBJ in 1964 after the passage of the Civil Rights Act).
The voter suppression efforts of Husted and his predecessor are really aimed at these minority voters in presidential elections. They don’t have much effect in the state or federal legislative races.
"How did the Democrats let Ohio..." etc etc etc
After the census which is every years 10 years, the party in power gets to redraw the states district lines. The Dems have been accused of being unfair in the past as well. Sooo, I guess "politics" !! Margaret/Maumee Ohio
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