Many People Think Georgia Will Elect A Democratic Senator Long Before Texas Does

Future Senator Michelle Nunn and ex-Pres. George H.W. Bush

Zac McCrary and Brian Stryker from the Blue Dog polling firm, Anzalone Research, see Georgia turning into a purple state as soon as 2010. Demographics really are destiny, they assert. Florida, Virginia, Nevada, and Colorado have trended Democrat and now Texas is moving in that direction.

Texas is no doubt becoming more Democratic by the day, and groups like Battleground Texas are already hard at work smartly building the infrastructure to help make Texas competitive. However, demographic and election data indicate the same trends that will make Texas a swing state will even more immediately put Georgia's 16 electoral votes in play, expanding Democrats' paths to an electoral vote majority.

In 2012, Georgia was the second most competitive state carried by Mitt Romney (+7.8% Romney)-- behind only North Carolina (+2.0% Romney)... And in 2008, Georgia was the third most competitive state won by McCain, behind only Missouri and Montana... Obama's Georgia vote share declined in 2012, as did his national vote share. However, the Obama vote share decreased less in Georgia than it did nationwide, and Obama's 2012 Georgia performance came even closer to his nationwide vote share (5.57% vs. national) than did his 2008 performance (-5.99%).

...Most fundamentally, Georgia is quickly becoming less white and less rural. In 2000, Georgia's population was 63% white; as of the 2010 Census the state's population is 56% white. Of the state's 1.5 million new residents between 2000 and 2010, more than 80% (1.2 million, or 81%) were non-white.

Over the past decade, the 6% growth among Georgia's white population pales in comparison to the 26% growth rate among African Americans. This is in stark contrast to the growth patterns of the 1990s, when Georgia's white population grew by more than double that rate (16%). Since 1990, Georgia has gained more than 1.2 million African American residents and has served, according to the Wall Street Journal, as a "magnet for black professionals" from other parts of the country.

However, Georgia's increased competitiveness is not driven solely by African American voters. Georgia's Hispanic population grew by 96% over the last decade-- a growth rate double the national average and second only to North Carolina's. From 1990-2010, the state's Hispanic population has risen from roughly 100,000 to more than 800,000-- now totaling 9.1% of the state's population. Additionally, Georgia's Asian American community grew by 81% from 2000-2010 and has almost quintupled since 1990.

The epicenter of these demographic changes is the Atlanta metro area. As this area grows more diverse, it is becoming more Democratic and expanding its footprint on the state's body politic. Metro Atlanta comprised roughly 52% of the electorate in the 2000 presidential race, but 54% in the 2012 election (and likely 56% in the 2020 election). Of metro Atlanta's roughly one million new residents over the past decade, 90% are non-white (54% African American / 31% Hispanic). This growth reduced the metro area's white percentage from 60% in 2000 to 51% in 2010. Conversely, African Americans (from 29% to 32% of the area's population) and Hispanics (from 6% to 10%) have undergone a population boom. The electoral effects have been unmistakable. In 2012, Obama actually took a majority (50.3%) of the two-party vote in the metro area, roughly six points higher than John Kerry's 44% in 2004.

...Over the next ten years, Georgia will likely add 500,000 more Hispanic and 600,000 more African American residents. The 2008 electorate (that yielded just a 5-point McCain win), is on track to be several points less white (from 65% to 61%), more African American (from 30% to 32%) and more Hispanic (from 3% to 5%). These projections indicate that a 2020 Democratic nominee who performs the same among each racial subgroup as Obama did in 2008 (according to exit polls) would take roughly 50% of the statewide vote, reminiscent of the Obama campaign's narrow victory in North Carolina in 2008.

While Georgia Democrats have struggled in recent statewide elections, Democrats have a solid bench of rising stars including Atlanta Mayor Kasim Reed, Congressman John Barrow, state legislators Jason Carter, Stacey Abrams, Scott Holcomb, and non-profit founder/CEO Michelle Nunn, among others. (Disclosure: Kasim Reed and Jason Carter are Anzalone Liszt Grove clients). Such Democratic candidates will be well-positioned to run for Governor or Senate as the state's political hue shifts from red to purple. And while the Atlanta-media market is very expensive, a statewide television buy in Georgia is roughly the cost of a North Carolina buy and 20% less expensive than a statewide buy in Virginia. A Georgia buy is also just one-third the cost of a statewide broadcast buy in the Lone Star State. As Georgia's political winds shift, Democrats should be able to field strong candidates with the ability to marshal the necessary resources to communicate with voters in a robust way over the next decade and beyond.

So what about next year? Can the daughter of beloved and legendary 4-term Democratic Senator Sam Nunn, Michelle Nunn, win the open Senate seat the crazy teabaggers drove Saxby Chambliss into giving up? This week Kyle Trygstad of Roll Call took a hard look at what's shaping up to be one of only three long-short opportunities for Democratic take-overs in red states, the other two being Kentucky (Miss McConnell) and South Carolina (Lindsey Graham). Trygstad agrees with the Anazalone team that "a surge in the black and Hispanic populations around Atlanta has altered the political outlook in Georgia’s statewide races for decades to come."

“I believe that Georgia is in a great position to go for a Democrat not only in 2014, but 2016 as well,” said Tharon Johnson, a top Democratic consultant in the state and President Barack Obama’s national Southern regional director in 2012.

Next year, the party’s hopes rest on the perfect political storm-- including the quality of likely candidate Michelle Nunn’s campaign, the registration of tens of thousands of potential voters and a GOP primary race to the right that debilitates the eventual nominee.

Operatives from both parties agree Georgia is headed for swing-state status, as suburban Atlanta continues to sprawl. They estimate that, as soon as 2016, the state will get the kind of attention from presidential contenders that Virginia’s new purple-state status invited in 2008.

The Peach State was considered safe Republican territory in 2012, when Obama’s team declined to invest any advertising or field efforts like those seen in swing states. Still, Obama won nearly 46 percent of the vote.

Blacks now make up 31 percent of Georgia’s population and about 30 percent of its active voters, according to the U.S. Census Bureau and the Georgia Secretary of State’s office. Hispanics now account for 9 percent of the population but remain underrepresented in the voter rolls at just 2 percent. Similar demographic trends are also occurring in states such as Texas and Arizona.

The lingering question is: How soon can Democrats use their demographic advantages to consistently compete in federal elections in these states? Some national Democratic strategists believe that their first, best shot is in Georgia.

Johnson listed five specific necessities for Nunn to win and show her state as competitive:

• Full engagement from the political operation of Atlanta Mayor Kasim Reed, the most popular Democrat in the state.

• A coordinated voter registration operation that targets African-Americans, Hispanics and young, white progressive voters.

• Significant assistance from national Democratic organizations, including the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee.

• A coalition of voters based on the 1998 road map drawn by Michael Thurmond, Thurbert Baker and Roy Barnes-- Democrats who all won statewide.

• Avoiding a costly primary.

Democrats’ chances increased in January, when Republican Sen. Saxby Chambliss announced his retirement. As their top chance to pick up a seat, there is a strong probability DSCC officials will spend significant money to win it.

But the timing isn’t perfect. Even though Georgia is headed toward becoming a routine battleground, midterm electorates are generally older and whiter-- which favors Republicans.

“I think a Democrat winning in Georgia right now for this seat is at best slim to none, and leaning toward none,” said Tom Perdue, a longtime consultant to Chambliss. “And not her name-- I mean N-O-N-E.”

Polling, however, shows Nunn decisively beating at least one of the top GOP choices: former Georgia Secretary of State Karen Handel. She ties Rep. Phil Gingrey if he;s the nominee and is within the margin or error if John Birch Society extremist Paul Broun is the GOP nominee. And she hasn't even announced whether or not she'll run yet, although the DSCC has been telling insiders she is definitely running and that she'll announce later this month-- and so is EMILY's List.