Tuesday, November 06, 2012

Predictions... The Senate Stays In Democratic Hands


Rich Beeson is Romney's political director. Will anyone ever take him seriously again after tonight? Not because Romney will lose-- and lose massively, but because Beeson publicly predicted, on Fox News Sunday that Romney is on track to win over 300 electoral votes. "It's going to be a big win for Gov. Romney," said Beeson, who is betting on Romney winning in several blue states, like Pennsylvania. Well, of course they will. Why not? The Beltway is its own insular little universe and neither honesty nor accuracy are admired traits there. Just as Senator Obama was rolling up an historic 365 electoral vote win in 2008, McCain was boasting to the media that, “We’ve got them just where we want them.” That must have impressed the producers of Meet the Press immensely! Howard Dean, on the other hand, was universally ridiculed in 2006 for predicting that the Democrats would capture a majority in the House, the Beltway pundits and media rolling their eyes and insinuating Dean is insane. That the Democrats were swept into power, winning 31 more seats than they had when the cycle began. An astounding 22 GOP incumbents were defeated, including powerhouses-- Democrats under Steve Israel have stopped targeting powerhouse Republicans-- like Dick Pombo (CA), Jim Leach (IA), Clay Shaw (FL), Nancy Johnson (CT), Rob Simmons (CT), Curt Weldon (PA), Charles Taylor (NC), Henry Bonilla (TX), and Melissa Hart (PA). Geniuses like Larry Sabato, who are still taken seriously among Villagers had predicted a net gain of between 12 and 15 seats for the Democrats. Today Sabato predicts no net gains for either party in the Senate and a net pickup of just 3 for the Democrats in the House. We'll make fun of him tomorrow.

I'm not certain when Nate Silver's NY Times model will have Obama at 99.9% but it's getting closer by the minute. It certainly looks like he'll win over 300 electoral votes, perhaps as many as 332, if everything close breaks his way. So it isn't much of a leap to predict an Obama win tonight. Let's look at the Senate instead. The GOP felt fairly certain they would complete the job they started in 2010-- a Senate takeover-- this year. Then their candidates started exposing themselves... and the Republican Party, for what dangerous, out-of-the-mainstream extremists they really are. Far right fanatics and sociopaths like Todd Akin and Richard Mourdock didn't just make it possible for Democrats to come back from the dead in very red Missouri and Indiana, but had a ripple effect across the country. Republican hopes in Florida, Michigan, New Mexico, Virginia, and Ohio were dashed and suddenly they found themselves fighting on home turf: Arizona, North Dakota, Nebraska, Montana... states they had been certain of going into the election cycle.

By tomorrow we'll know for sure, of course, but here are the DWT final Senate predictions for the Senate. The four italicized races are still in play and could go either way tonight, depending on the ability of the parties to turn out their bases. They really are true toss-ups.

Arizona- Jeff Flake, Republican hold
California- Dianne Feinstein, Democratic hold
Connecticut- Chris Murphy, Democratic hold
Delaware- Tom Carper, Democratic hold
Florida- Bill Nelson, Democratic hold
Hawaii- Mazie Hirono, Democratic hold
Indiana- Joe Donnelly, Democratic hold
Maine- Angus King (Independent expected to caucus with the Democrats)
Maryland- Ben Cardin, Democratic hold
Massachusetts- Elizabeth Warren, Democratic pickup
Michigan- Debbie Stabenow, Democratic hold
Minnesota- Amy Klobuchar, Democratic hold
Mississippi- Roger Wicker, GOP hold
Missouri- Claire McCaskill, Democratic hold
Montana- Jon Tester, Democratic hold
Nebraska- Deb Fischer, Republican pickup
Nevada- Dean Heller, Republican hold
New Jersey- Bob Menendez, Democratic hold
New Mexico- Martin Heinrich, Democratic hold
New York- Kirsten Gillibrand, Democratic hold
North Dakota- Rick Berg, Republican pickup
Ohio- Sherrod Brown, Democratic hold
Pennsylvania- Bob Casey, Democratic hold
Rhode Island- Sheldon Whitehouse, Democratic hold
Tennessee- Bob Corker, Republican hold
Texas- Ted Cruz, Republican hold
Utah- Orrin Hatch, Republican hold
Vermont- Bernie Sanders- Independent hold
Virginia- Tim Kaine, Democratic hold
Washington- Maria Cantwell, Democratic hold
West Virginia- Joe Manchin, Democratic hold
Wisconsin- Tammy Baldwin, Democratic hold
Wyoming- John Barrasso, Republican hold



At 6:56 AM, Anonymous ap215 said...

When Elizabeth Warren defeats Scott Brown tonight the best move Harry Reid could do is appoint her to the DSCC i rather contribute to her than what Steve is doing at the DCCC.

At 8:04 AM, Anonymous me said...

Predictions... The Senate Stays In Democratic Hands

Stay?? If the Senate were in Democratic hands, the Senate would not have allowed goppers to control everything it did.

At 8:09 AM, Anonymous me said...

California- Dianne Feinstein, Democratic hold

Despite her claims, Feinstein is NOT a Democrat. She is a republican who calls herself a Democrat because it makes it easier to get elected.

At 8:11 AM, Anonymous me said...

Nebraska- Deb Fischer, Republican pickup

Same here. There's NO WAY Ben Nelson could have been considered a Democrat, so this is not a "pickup" in actuality.


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