Wednesday, November 07, 2012

California House Races-- Golden For Democrats


The only big disappointment was in CA-25 where Buck McKeon managed to hang on by the skin of his teeth. With no help from the DCCC or the California Democratic Party-- and battling furiously against Steve Israel's policy of giving free passes to senior Republican committee chairmen-- Lee Rogers cut down McKeon's usually large victory margin to 98,090 (55.2%) to 79,597 (44.8%). It was McKeon's closest brush with political extinction since he was first elected in 1992 and Rogers would have been a sure winner had not Steve Israel decided to not contest the seat. We'll work on Rogers to run again in 2014.

When I woke up this morning there were 4 races still not called-- and Democrats led their GOP opponents, 3 of them incumbents, in all of them:
CA-07 Ami Bera 88,406 (50.1%), Dan Lungren 88,222 (49.9%) all precincts reporting
CA-26 Julia Brownley 105,734 (51.7%), Tony Strickland 98,635 (48.3%) all precincts reporting
CA-36 Raul Ruiz 71,865 (51.2%), Mary Bono Mack 68,414 (48.8%) 57% of precincts reporting
CA-52 Scott Peters 103,878 (50.2%), Brian Bilbray 103,193 (49.8%) all precincts reporting
Other notable developments in the California races include Gloria McLeod ousting Blue Dog Joe Baca (CA-35) 55.7- 44.3%; Sherman decisively beating Berman 60.5- 39.5% (CA-30); Henry Waxman holding off billionaire egomaniac Bill Bloomfield, who spent $6,057,080 of his own money, 53.7- 46.3% (CA-33); and progressives Mark Takano (CA-41) and Alan Lowenthal (CA-47) beating their GOP opponents with no help at all from the DCCC. GOP pickup opportunities resulting from redistricting against John Garamendi, Jerry McNerney, Jim Costa, and Lois Capps all fell short.

In the Democrat vs Democrat dust up (CA-15, in the East Bay), 80 year old 19 term congressman Pete Stark, a progressive icon-- albeit a doddering one-- fell to a somewhat less progressive Alameda County prosecutor Eric Swalwell, age 31, 53.1- 46.9%.

Lack of DCCC support-- and lack of support from the slavish tail wagged by that dog, the all-but-useless California Democratic Party-- proved fatal to Lee Rogers race against McKeon, Jay Chen's race against Ed Royce and Jerry Tetalman's race against Darrell Issa. All three could have won with institutional assistance. Here's the resources the DCCC and its affiliates spent in the California races they got involved with:
Ami Bera- $2,489,626
Jose Hernandez- $3,139,987
Julia Brownley- $1,699,215
Raul Ruiz- $1,552,472
Although they put both Mark Takano and Alan Lowenthal into their Red-to-Blue program they spent no money at all helping either candidate. Hernandez, though, was a decent investment, although he only drew 46.2% against incumbent Jeff Denham. Half that amount spent against McKeon would have seen him defeated and would have been among this morning's biggest headlines nationally.

More California Stuff

Jackie Lacey beat the far more conservative L.A. prosecutor Alan Jackson, 55-45%, to become Los Angeles' first woman D.A. The most crucial ballot question, Prop 30, which increases taxes to pay for public education, passed 54-46%. The deceptive Koch funded anti-union Prop 32 was defeated 56.2- 43.8%. My biggest disappointment is that the millions of dollars from the pesticide and fast food industry that was deployed against the bill to require labeling of genetically engineered food was effective and that important proposition lost, 53.0- 47.0%, around half a million people preferring to not be told what's in their food. The death penalty repeal was losing this morning but counting is still underway.

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At 10:49 AM, Anonymous ap215 said...

The number of Blue Dogs have dwindled from 24 to 15 it would not surpise in the next election cycle those reps might be gone as well & it sounds like Nancy Pelosi will step down as minority leader.


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