Does Obama Have A Base Problem-- And Why His Camapign's Understanding of That Matters

It's childish to say that there's no difference between the two parties. There are very real, very significant differences, differences that make thoughtful people hold their noses while they pull the lever on election day for Democrats they know will disappoint them. As badly as Bush? As badly as Jim DeMint? As badly as John Boehner or Eric Cantor or Paul Ryan? Of course not. The Democrats aren't as bad as Genghis Khan, Hitler, Mussolini, Stalin or Richard Nixon either. But it's 2011 and when will it be time to raise that exceedingly low bar?

Inside the Beltway types-- regardless of Party-- are in another world from the world Americans are in. And it's a very, very bad world. And it's a world they crafted; carefully. "Bad" was the wrong word. The word is evil. Or pernicious. Inside-the-Beltway Democrats have more in common with Inside-the-Beltway Republicans than they do with actual Democrats in America. They have corrupted democracy and brought it to its knees, right along with the Republicans. They may not be "the same" or "identical," but they both suck-- really, really bad.

Yesterday Benjy Sarlin at TPM reported that the White House is insisting they don't have a base problem. In America, we know very well they do-- and it's the same base problem they kept as many as half the Democrats and left-leaning independents home one year ago on election day causing catastrophic, but well-deserved, results for the Democratic Party. And if Team Obama is persuading itself that the good news-- good for 99%-ers, not especially for any political party-- out of Ohio and Maine Tuesday means people like Obama, they must be drinking from the same trough that Rick Perry drinks from before he goes on TV to debate the 7 dwarves. This smells like a disaster in the making:

Among Obama campaign staff, it’s an article of faith that talk of a “base problem” is a load of bunk. Touring campaign headquarters in Chicago last month, aides uniformly dismissed the notion there would be any issue bringing core Democrats back into the fold. A “Washington narrative,” as one person described it to TPM.

Here are some of the symptoms of delusion, from Sarlin's same piece:

A surge in youth voting, notoriously one of the hardest groups to get to the polls, was key to Obama’s 2008 win but lately there have been signs of trouble. The Occupy Wall Street movement, which the campaign is loathe to discuss at all, has unexpectedly taken off but there are strong undercurrents of disappointment in Obama’s leadership among its supporters. And the rough economy, Obama’s biggest overall vulnerability, is very real to recent college graduates, many of whom are having a tough time finding work and paying off their student debt.

While Republican opposition has blocked much the White House’s ambitious legislative agenda, the campaign thinks they’ve amassed an impressive set of accomplishments to convince young voters that their enthusiasm in 2008 wasn’t misplaced. The end of the Iraq War, the Affordable Care Act’s rapid expansion of insurance coverage for young adults, and the repeal of Don’t Ask Don’t Tell all are set to figure big in the President’s pitches.

Another issue that the White House is emphasizing more recently: student debt. The President recently issued an executive order aimed at speeding up reforms designed to make student loans easier to pay off. Priorities USA, an independent group supporting Obama’s re-election, ran an ad in Michigan ahead of Wednesday’s Republican debate accusing the GOP candidates of trying to cut student programs.

Hispanic voters, another crucial plank of Obama’s 2008 majority, are another focus for 2012. A number of Latino groups have been extremely critical of the administration’s record, including its inability to get the DREAM Act and comprehensive immigration reform past Congress and its hesitancy to slow a record-setting pace of deportations.

An Obama staffer stressed that Latino advocacy groups’ focus on immigration obscured the tremendous importance of the economy to individual Latino voters, an area where they feel their latest jobs push gives them an edge. While the campaign was counting on bringing the activist community behind them sooner, they’re enthused over a raft of polling showing Latino voters sticking with the president in head to head match-ups with his Republican challengers. A recent Univision poll, for example, showed Obama racking his 2-1 margins among Hispanic voters against Mitt Romney, Rick Perry, and Herman Cain, a number near identical to his 2008 victory. Romney has tacked hard right in his immigration rhetoric over the last few weeks to go after Perry, whose support for allowing illegal immigrants to receive in-state tuition has become one of his top vulnerabilities. And that’s nothing compared to Cain, who has suggesting building a lethal electrical fence around the border.

And yet you still have Beltway Democrats destroying the brand in the exact same ways they did to bring down the wrath of the base on them 368 days ago. You think an old "ex"-Blue Dog like Steve Israel is capable of learning any lessons at this point? Let me assure you-- he isn't. And he runs the DCCC. In fact, he's running it right into the ground.

By any measure, Ilya Sheyman is one of the Democratic Party's star recruits this year and slated to take back a suburban Chicagoland House seat from a GOP corporate stooge, Robert Dold. But that's not good enough for a conservative hack like Israel. He would rather lose the seat than see a progressive tribune of the people win it. Chicago Business broke the news this morning.

Announcing his candidacy by video on Thursday morning was healthy foods marketing consultant John Tree. He has almost no name recognition but a résumé right out of Central Casting in the politically moderate, heavily Jewish 10th District.

Mr. Tree, 45, is a graduate of the Air Force Academy who serves as a colonel in the Air Force Reserve. He said he decided to run when, while on duty at the Pentagon earlier this year, he was assigned to help plan ways to notify troops overseas that they wouldn't be paid because of a pending government shut down.

...All of that being said, Mr. Tree never has run for or held public or civic office. But serving as his campaign consultant is Pete Giangreco, who says he was urged to meet with Mr. Tree by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, the national party's House political arm.

Also this morning the Sun-Times' Lynn Sweet blew the whistle on Israel's sleazoid tactics-- tactics he's using all over the country, in district after district, to quietly knife progressives in the back while pushing an array of Democrats who are, basically, just like himself. What was Pelosi thinking?

Illinois Democratic House hopeful Ilya Sheyman, running in the tenth congressional district, said the late entry of John Tree into the primary contest was a move by "Chicago political bosses."

Sheyman statement: "Even as Chicago political bosses launched a last-ditch, desperate effort to push another candidate into the race just weeks before the petition filing deadline, venerable Illinois Congressman Danny Davis added his name to the growing list of supporters of progressive community organizer Ilya Sheyman's campaign on Thursday."

Chicago political bosses? That's Rahm Emanuel, the ex-DCCC chair whose anti-progressive policies led directly to last year's disaster at the polls. Israel, fancies himself "Rahm without the potty mouth." Others have called him "Rahm without the brains." This is from a press release from Sheyman's campaign today:

In a clear indication that Sheyman has achieved front-runner status, Sheyman now has more support from federal elected officials and local leaders than any other candidate, and is the only candidate in the race with support from organized labor or national progressive organizations.

"It's becoming increasingly apparent that the old school, business-as-usual political establishment is worried about our campaign," said Sheyman Campaign Manager Annie Weinberg. "They're worried because they see our massive field operation, with over 350 volunteers out on the doors. They're worried because we've got broad-based support from local and national leaders like Rep. Danny Davis, Rep. Jesse Jackson, Jr., and former Democratic National Committee Chair Howard Dean. But really, they're worried because they know that Ilya is a candidate who they can't control or buy off. Ilya always been independent. He's never been afraid to buck the status quo. That's exactly what we've done in this campaign, and it's exactly how we'll win this primary and beat Rep. Dold in November."

Sheyman, a Jewish immigrant from the former Soviet Union and Waukegan-based community organizer, is running on the Democratic ticket to beat Republican Rep. Robert Dold in Illinois' 10th District.

"In my nearly 15 years in the United States Congress, I've rarely seen a candidate build as powerful a grassroots campaign as Ilya Sheyman's in the 10th District," said Rep. Davis. "Ilya shares my commitment to solving the jobs crisis, one of the most urgent and pressing issues facing our communities today. He's an exceptional leader and a real progressive, and he'll be an excellent addition to the Illinois Congressional Delegation as we fight in Washington to put the people of Illinois back to work."

Rep. Davis is one of the most senior members of the Illinois Delegation, having served the state's 7th District for over 15 years. He has been a leader in several Congressional caucuses, including the Congressional Black Caucus, the Progressive Caucus, the Urban Caucus and the Community Health Centers Caucus. He has also been at the forefront of the effort to solve the nation's unemployment crisis.

"Rep. Davis' endorsement today is another signal that this campaign is a moving train, and that national and local leaders are ready to get on board to beat Republican Rep. Bob Dold," said Sheyman, who last week was endorsed by Reps. Raul Grijalva of Arizona, Keith Ellison of Minnesota and Jesse Jackson, Jr. of Illinois' 2nd District. "Congressman Davis shares my dedication to creating good jobs and putting the people of Illinois back to work in these tough economic times. It will be an honor to serve alongside him in Washington."

In addition to Reps. Davis, Jackson, Ellison and Grijalva, Sheyman has the support of former Democratic National Committee Chair Gov. Howard Dean, as well as MoveOn.org, whose 12,000 members in the 10th District recently voted to endorse him. Sheyman has also been endorsed by Democracy for America, the Progressive Change Campaign Committee, the Sheet Metal Workers Union, Local 73, the International Longshoremen's Association-- AFL-CIO, and Mike McGue, the president of the Lake County Federation of Teachers.