ENSIGN FEELING OPTIMISTIC PREDICTS JUST A FEW REPUBLICAN SENATE LOSSES

Armed with a strategy premised on fooling all of the people-- or at least 51% of the voters-- all of the time-- or at least every November-- the congressional Republicans are on a mission. BoehnerBluntCole&Doody would like to hold their losses down to 12 to 20 seats in the House and yesterday, John Ensign (R-NV), the GOP version of Chuck Schumer, only not as cut throat, said he'd be celebrating on election night if only 3 of his colleagues are defeated by Democrats. It's very unlikely he'll be celebrating, but let me get to that below. First, though, let's look at his strategy. Ensign is trying to get reluctant Republican donors to contribute to his lost cause-- I mean who wants to bet on a three two legged horse?-- by telling them that with a likely win by Obama and a far stronger Democratic majority in the House, the Right must be able to keep up the Bush-McConnell-McCain strategy obstruction in the Senate. If they fall below 40 votes, they will be unable to filibuster popular measures the House passes. Ensign calls it his firewall strategy and if the Democrats wind up with 60 seats in the Senate, Obama in the White House and a strong majority in the House, Democrats will be able to bring the war in Iraq to an end, pass health care, end unfair tax policies that reward wealth instead of work, strengthen public education, bring ethics reform to government, clean up the environment, fix the broken regulatory system, institute a sensible energy policy and institute the policies and reforms the vast majority of Americans support.

During a meeting with journalists on Thursday, Senator Ensign gamed several of the most competitive races for Republicans this year, and talked about his desire to hold their losses to just three seats in the Senate. His pitch to donors and supporters is that Republicans in the Senate could be the “firewall” against a potential Obama presidency and a strengthened House leader in Nancy Pelosi.

In order for Republicans to be effective in the Senate, he said, to moderate Democratic policies, the G.O.P. can’t afford to lose four seats or more. To slip down four seats or more, below 45, would cripple the ability of Senate Republicans to threaten a filibuster.

Among the Senate races Mr. Ensign views as most competitive are Alaska, Colorado, Louisiana, Maine, Minnesota, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Oregon and Virginia.

Last night and today everyone in Washington is trying to guess which Republican senators Ensign would be most willing to see sink. Although he tried to make the case that McCain's coattails-- which were the death knell for Greg Davis (R-MS), Woody KKK-pecker (R-LA) and Jim Oberweis (R-IL)-- could save the doomed careers of John Sununu (NH), Steve Pearce (NM) and Bob Schaffer (CO), these races are not going to be won by the Republicans despite his spin. He admits that Obama-- who, unlike the lackluster and tired McCain, does have serious coattails-- will probably help several Democratic candidates, especially Jeff Merkley who is challenging Bush rubber stamp Gordon Smith in Oregon. He also admits he's worried about Obama's popularity in North Carolina where Elizabeth Dole is floundering and recognizes that Virginia is a lost cause for Team Red. Ensign seems to think that if they lose in Minnesota, it means the whole edifice is tumbling down. I wonder if he'll jump off a building if Andrew Rice beats the craziest of the Republican incumbents, James Inhofe.

Some Democrats speculate that if there is an Obama-led Democratic sweep, there could be a 10-seat turnover-- enough votes to tear down the Republican firewall, since any filibuster can be broken with 60 votes.

Overall, Ensign said the conventional wisdom is right-- this isn’t a good year for Republicans.

If the GOP ends Election Night with only a three-seat Senate turnover, that “would be a great night for us,” the chief fundraiser for Senate Republicans said.

Don't bother bringing too much champagne.

The only plausible incumbent Democratic target the GOP has is reactionary corporatist Mary Landrieu who deserves to lose-- since she votes with the Republicans more than any other Democrat other than Tom Johnson (D-SD) and Ben Nelson (D-NE)-- but she's so far ahead that the even more reactionary Democrat Rove recruited to switch parties and challenge her is unlikely to even come close. As for endangered Republican incumbents... well, Lizard Man (D-NY) has his hands full. To get to a filibuster-proof majority, like Roosevelt had after the 1936 election (when only 16 Republicans were left in the Senate) the Democrats need to win open seats in Virginia, New Mexico, and Colorado (all very likely-- with a possibility of another two in Nebraska and Idaho) and to take out a healthy dose of GOP incumbents Susan Collins (ME), Ted Stevens (AK), Norm Coleman (MN), John Sununu (NH), Gordon Smith (OR), James Inhofe (OK), John Cornyn (TX), Elizabeth Dole (NC), Roger Wicker (MS), Miss McConnell (KY), Pat Roberts (KS), Saxby Chambliss (GA), and Lamar Alexander (TN). To be able to dump gift Lieberman to a shrunken and shriveled GOP and to win cloture votes to shut down Republican filibusters, the Democrats need 11 seats-- or 10 if Olympia Snowe switches, which is likely if Collins is defeated. (Another prospect for a switch is Arlen Specter.)

If you'd like to help this worth cause, Blue America has endorsed Tom Allen (D-ME), Andrew Rice (D-OK), Rick Noriega (D-TX), and Mark Begich (D-AK), all fighting uphill races against well-financed Bush rubber stamps. If you'd like to help any of all of these worth candidates, please stop by our Blue America ActBlue page.