THE BAD NEWS TRAIN ROLLING TOWARDS ANOTHER RED DISTRICT? LA-06 TURNING BLUE?

A spate of recent Special Elections have been more than catastrophic for the Republican Party. They've pointed to a tsunami of resentment-- if not outright hatred-- for the GOP brand. Voters realize it isn't just Bush and Cheney, but all the enablers and co-conspirators who have been so damaging to our country. And voters are responding appropriately-- even in deeply red parts of the country. A state Senate seat in upstate New York that hasn't elected a Democrat since before McCain was born-- actually since before McCain's mother was born-- did just that on February 26. And the same night a central Florida district gerrymandered specifically to be a safe home for Republicans saw an unbelievable upset when Tony Sasso beat his big-spending GOP rival to replace GOP toilet trawler Bob Allen. And then came McCain's big play to keep Denny Hastert's GOP heartland seat red. Oberweis, the RNCC, and McCain spent a ton of money but still lost to a Democratic political novice.

Today's CongressDaily warns that "Republicans hoping for a respite from the bad electoral news that the special election in Illinois' 14th District brought last month should seek cover. Things might get worse before they get better." By worse they're referring to the Baton Rouge, Louisiana seat Richard Baker is trading in to go work as a lobbyist (LA-06). Normally it would be considered a very safe red district with a PVI of R+7. But on top of the public's overall disdain for Republicans, there has been a demographic shift in the district after Katrina and the Republican wound up with the worst possible candidate, someone associated win voters' minds with the KKK.

Before 2005's Hurricane Katrina, the black population accounted for 33 percent of the district's residents. That's a very high number for a Republican-held seat. In fact, there are only two other Republicans that sit in seats with a higher percentage.

Since Katrina, however, that percentage in Baker's district has likely risen. While official numbers haven't been compiled districtwide, the numbers in East Baton Rouge County, the seat's largest county, should be enough to give Republicans pause. In 2000, blacks made up 40 percent of the county's population. Today that number is 46 percent.

But causing the most angst among Republicans isn't the demographics of the seat, or even the current atmosphere that seems to be poisonous to the party. It's their likely nominee.

When Baker announced his retirement, there weren't too many high-profile Republicans that were looking at running, at least publicly. The favorite of the establishment early on appeared to be former Baker's chief of staff, Paul Sawyer.

But his name didn't have the cache Republicans were hoping for. In a short special election contest, name ID would play a huge role. Into that void came the well-known, or some would say, notorious, Woody Jenkins, a former GOP state senator and 1996 Senate nominee.

In that Senate race, Jenkins had the distinction of being one of the two most conservative candidates in the race. The other conservative was former Ku Klux Klan leader David Duke. So right off the bat, being associated with Duke as the field's two conservatives did Jenkins no favors.

Jenkins lost to Mary Landrieu in a very bitter general election which left the public with the impression that he is an extremist loon who cut a deal with the KKK. "Jenkins couldn't shake the image of being out of step with the state. In fact, it seems that 'ultra conservative' couldn't be written in news stories unless Jenkins was attached to it... Sawyer tried to use some of this background to his advantage when he aired a TV ad right before the primary alleging that Jenkins had a business relationship with Duke and tried to cover it up." It didn't do Sawyer much good but it helped remind voters how extreme right Jenkins is. And now he has to face a very well-known, right-of-center Democrat in the general election on May 3rd. The DCCC recruited anti-choice reactionary state Rep. Don Cazayoux. This race should cost the NRCC whatever small amount they have left in their pilfered treasury.