Countdown to Election Day: late word on the congressional special elections in OH-05 and VA-01

It's crunch time for the congressional special elections Tuesday in Ohio and Virginia, both currently Republican-held seats with Democratic takeaway potential.

OHIO'S 5th CD
The most curious development in Ohio's 5th Congressional District, where progressive Democrat Robin Weirauch seems close to pulling off a major upset to replace the late Paul Gillmor, is the absence from the campaign trail of House GOP leader John Boehner in support of Bob Latta. Boehner represents the adjacent Ohio 8th CD.

You'll recall that last year Democrats Ted Strickland and Sherrod Brown won this supposedly solid Republican district on their way to being elected Ohio governor and U.S. senator, respectively. Both Governor Strickland and Senator Brown have been highly visible in their support for Weinrauch. You'll also recall that the DCCC almost to the end snubbed the Weirauch campaign, before dumping in $150K, there forcing the NRCC to pour in what's expected to be way more than that--at a time when GOP campaign funds are hardly plentiful. But this is a seat they don't dare lose.

Last word was that the race was so tight that the Weirauch people were eager for volunteers to help man the effort to the end. If you're in the area, call (419) 352-1583 or e-mail phonebank4robin@gmail.com.

VIRGINIA'S 1st CD
One novelty of the contest to replace the late Jo Ann Davis in Virginia's conservative 1st CD will be the use paper ballots, with the unavailability of voting machines owing to the tight turn around from the November general election and the upcoming February presidential primaries.

This is another seat it would be devastating fof the Rs to lose, but Iraq vet Philip Forgit is trying to pull off his upset without any aid from the DCCC, and is being outspent something like five to one by Republican Rob Wittman.

Here's some of what Brownsox reported Wednesday on DailyKos:

It’s been an intense race so far; both candidates were nominated at conventions on November 10, just one month and a day before the election.

Raising Kaine has a great interview with Forgit where they discuss, among other things, Forgit’s positions on trade (he supports fair trade), torture (very critical of waterboarding), and the summer FISA bill (he opposes retroactive telecom immunity).

It must be acknowledged that this district is quite Republican. The PVI of VA-01 is R +8.9, and they haven’t elected a Democrat to Congress since 1977. Jo Ann Davis’s smallest margin of victory was in her first election, which she won 58-37. Bush beat Kerry 60-39 here. Governor Kaine lost the district 51-46 (while winning the state 52-46), and Senator Webb lost 54-44 (while he won the state 50-49).

Is the race competitive? The Republicans sure seem to think so. Tom Cole’s NRCC (in no position to take anything for granted), just spent $80,000, including $10,000 on polling.

That’s a huge chunk of money for them. It is more than Forgit's total for this campaign as of November 21, and nearly as much as Wittman has raised.

Why would they do that? They certainly don’t have the money to spare. They’re not just in financial trouble; they’re broke. At last filing they were $3.6 million in debt, and of the $2.6 million they had on hand, they’ve now spent over $400,000 in a week between OH-05 and VA-01.

They must be pretty concerned about these districts to spend what little cash they have left on races such as these.