Countdown to Election Day: late word on the congressional special elections in OH-05 and VA-01

It's crunch time for the congressional special elections Tuesday in Ohio and Virginia, both currently Republican-held seats with Democratic takeaway potential.

OHIO'S 5th CD
The most curious development in Ohio's 5th Congressional District, where progressive Democrat Robin Weirauch seems close to pulling off a major upset to replace the late Paul Gillmor, is the absence from the campaign trail of House GOP leader John Boehner in support of Bob Latta. Boehner represents the adjacent Ohio 8th CD.

You'll recall that last year Democrats Ted Strickland and Sherrod Brown won this supposedly solid Republican district on their way to being elected Ohio governor and U.S. senator, respectively. Both Governor Strickland and Senator Brown have been highly visible in their support for Weinrauch. You'll also recall that the DCCC almost to the end snubbed the Weirauch campaign, before dumping in $150K, there forcing the NRCC to pour in what's expected to be way more than that--at a time when GOP campaign funds are hardly plentiful. But this is a seat they don't dare lose.

Last word was that the race was so tight that the Weirauch people were eager for volunteers to help man the effort to the end. If you're in the area, call (419) 352-1583 or e-mail phonebank4robin@gmail.com.

VIRGINIA'S 1st CD
One novelty of the contest to replace the late Jo Ann Davis in Virginia's conservative 1st CD will be the use paper ballots, with the unavailability of voting machines owing to the tight turn around from the November general election and the upcoming February presidential primaries.

This is another seat it would be devastating fof the Rs to lose, but Iraq vet Philip Forgit is trying to pull off his upset without any aid from the DCCC, and is being outspent something like five to one by Republican Rob Wittman.

Here's some of what Brownsox reported Wednesday on DailyKos:

It’s been an intense race so far; both candidates were nominated at conventions on November 10, just one month and a day before the election.

Raising Kaine has a great interview with Forgit where they discuss, among other things, Forgit’s positions on trade (he supports fair trade), torture (very critical of waterboarding), and the summer FISA bill (he opposes retroactive telecom immunity).

It must be acknowledged that this district is quite Republican. The PVI of VA-01 is R +8.9, and they haven’t elected a Democrat to Congress since 1977. Jo Ann Davis’s smallest margin of victory was in her first election, which she won 58-37. Bush beat Kerry 60-39 here. Governor Kaine lost the district 51-46 (while winning the state 52-46), and Senator Webb lost 54-44 (while he won the state 50-49).

Is the race competitive? The Republicans sure seem to think so. Tom Cole’s NRCC (in no position to take anything for granted), just spent $80,000, including $10,000 on polling.

That’s a huge chunk of money for them. It is more than Forgit's total for this campaign as of November 21, and nearly as much as Wittman has raised.

Why would they do that? They certainly don’t have the money to spare. They’re not just in financial trouble; they’re broke. At last filing they were $3.6 million in debt, and of the $2.6 million they had on hand, they’ve now spent over $400,000 in a week between OH-05 and VA-01.

They must be pretty concerned about these districts to spend what little cash they have left on races such as these.

CAN THE INSIDERS-- RAHM EMANUEL ON ONE SIDE AND THE GOP ON THE OTHERS SIDE OF THE SAME COIN-- BE BEATEN BACK IN OHIO ON DECEMBER 11?

Today Ohio Governor Ted Strickland is in northwestern Ohio (OH-05) campaigning with the overwhelming winner (like in 97% I think) of the Democratic primary for the congressional seat that opened up when Paul Gillmor died last month. As I've been saying, the DCCC has been inactive in this race, leaving it to Robin Weirauch and the state party to do what they can on their own. Emanuel, who isn't eager to see another Democrat elected who opposes his venal trade policies-- one of the key issues in Robin's campaign; she's with the American working people and her right-wing Republican opponent, Bob Latta, stands firmly with Emanuel-- and who wants to bring out troops back from Iraq. Strickland can attest to the fact that OH-05, despite Emanuel's insistence to the contrary, is a very winnable district. After all, he was elected governor last year and Sherrod Brown was elected senator and both racked up majorities in OH-05, despite the conventional wisdom stupidity.

This has led to a low key civil war inside the DCCC between the holdovers from the Emanuel regime and the new comers the new Chair, Chris Van Hollen brought in, who are all eager to help Robin win the race. On top of that Tim Ryan, Sherrod Brown and the rest of the Ohio delegation are lobbying the DCCC to let loose with some of that huge war chest they're always bragging about.

The DCCC's reticence-- or Emanuel's deliberate sabotage-- hasn't held the RNCC back, not a bit. They sense Robin can win and they're stepping up to help their stepford candidate. Thursday the Swing State Project pointed out that as broke as the NRCC is, they're rushing money to the special elections in VA-01 and OH-05, spending their meager resources to defend 2 seats they would normally be able to take for granted. The Republicans have spent over $9,000 on making a TV ad for Latta and they will shovel some real money into putting it on the air next week. Wes Clark is trying to help raise some cash for Robin but Emanuel would rather see a reactionary like Latta win than a grassroots Democrat like Robin who will oppose him and Bush on their NAFTA-like trade agenda. If you want to help Robin win a Republican seat, there are a dozen ActBlue pages, like this one, collecting secure donations.


UPDATE: THE MONEY

According to prespecial election filings with the F.E.C., those who want to see the Bush agenda extended indefinitely contributed $246,173 to Latta's campaign. People who feel we need a change donated $138,152 to Robin's campaign. According to today's Toledo Blade

The content of the race largely corresponds to the sources of cash. Mr. Latta promotes open global markets, while Mrs. Weirauch says she will protect manufacturing jobs from low-cost foreign competitors.

Mr. Latta (R., Bowling Green) has $132,488 on hand. However, the campaign also has $118,609 in outstanding debts, which include printing costs, advertising, and a $50,000 loan Mr. Latta gave his campaign from personal savings.

About $106,000 came from an inside-the-beltway fundraising event. Mr. Latta relied on his future possible colleagues, receiving donations from 26 congressional campaigns.

Executives from ProMedica Health System and real estate developer Dillin Corp. were among the Ohio residents donating to Mr. Latta's campaign, which has a distinct corporate backing with additional contributions from accounting firms, auto dealers, AT&T, MasterCard, and Ohio-based fast-food restaurant Wendy's.

"It shows that he's got a lot of support, not just in Ohio but from the business community," said Matt Parker, the Latta campaign manager. "They know he's the pro-business candidate."

So it's all about Big Pharma, big developers, big banking and credit card interests and AT&T, desperate to elect rubber stamp Republicans who will protect their lawbreaking executives from prosecution for having spied for the Bush Regime. Those are the folks in Latta's camp and they know he will support them at the expense of his constituents. "The last thing northwest Ohioans needs is another career politician in Washington who will be beholden to corporate special interests instead of Ohio's working families," said Doug Kelly, Ohio's Democratic Party Executive Director.

Robin's money is coming primarily from middle and working class Americans. Labor unions have backed her, as has Emily's List. Inside the Beltway Democrats gave her a small amount of perfunctory help. Pelosi, for example, tossed in $2,000, nothing like the $100,000 she raised for corporate shill Al Wynn in Maryland.


THE GOOD GUYS WON THIS ROUND-- NOW WE HAVE A REAL RACE

Although arguments raged within the DCCC that OH-05 was unwinnable and that spending real money there was useless, more DCCC employees agreed with the Ohio Democratic Party and with the entire Ohio Democratic congressional delegation that Robin Weirauch, with some real help, could beat the Republican rubber stamp, Bob Latta. The DCCC just dropped $150,000 into the Special Election to make and run TV ads. Congratulations to the DCCC employees who fought so hard against the bad guys.


UPDATE: THE DCCC AD FOR ROBIN

I just read that the RNCC, which really can not afford the money, has plunked down almost double what the DCCC put down. Here's the Dem's ad:

WHY IS THE DCCC OLD GUARD (THE EMANUEL CREW) BOYCOTTING THE PROGRESSIVE CANDIDATE IN OH-05?

As we mentioned Monday, there's a battle brewing inside the DCCC over the Democratic congressional candidate in the December 11 special election to fill the seat of Paul Gillmor (R-RIP). The whole Ohio Democratic congressional delegation, but especially Tim Ryan and Sherrod Brown, have been pushing for serious DCCC involvement. Everyone knows Van Hollen is sitting on tens of millions of dollars so why won't Emanuel let him spend some?

It's more than just wanting it to defend Bush Dogs who are unpopular with Democrats and face defeat due to low grassroots participation from people who look at congressmen like Jim Marshall and John Barrow and decide to stay home, correctly thinking, "What difference does it really make?" Sure Emanuel needs as many generic Democrats-- regardless of how they actually vote-- in order to maintain his power and get a good parking spot at the office. Today's Toledo Blade has a story by Josh Boak that gives strong hints about Emanuel would rather see a reactionary Republican win than a progressive Democrat: trade policy.

Emanuel made his bones by beating up on congressional Democrats on behalf of Bill Clinton's worst legislative initiative, NAFTA. Clinton had the Republicans behind him but he needed more Democrats to pass it. He sent over "tough guy" operative Emanuel. (Keep in mind this is when Emanuel was still getting away with his boastful, and false, claims that he lost a finger single-handedly capturing a Syrian tank in the Golan Heights and no one knew it had been amputated because a minor boo-boo got infected when he didn't wash it after an accident involving a pastrami sandwich at a deli in Chicago. Nor did they know, at the time that he was a ballet dancer and attended an all girls college.) Anyway, Mr Rough and Tumble, bribed and threatened enough Democrats to get NAFTA passed by 2 votes. It's the single worst thing to have come out of the Clinton Regime. And Emanuel stands by it to this day-- really stands by it. And that's why Bob Latta, the reactionary Republican in the OH-05 race (a district incorrectly deemed as "too red"), is his kind of candidate. Yesterday Latta "sketched out an economic agenda based on the traditional GOP pillars of limited government, reduced taxes, and expanded global markets."

The announcement highlighted the partisan differences on economic growth in the Dec. 11 run-off election for Ohio's 5th District congressional seat.

Democrat Robin Weirauch of Napoleon favors trade agreements that protect domestic factory workers from foreign rivals. She also believes that the federal government should enact policies to lower the price of gas, saying that existing laws enable the oil industry to reap substantial profits.

Emanuel hears a candidate "favors trade agreements that protect domestic factory workers from foreign rivals" and suddenly he forgets he's supposed to be a Democrat. It's much easier for him to blame the calamities caused by NAFTA on "illegal aliens" and to team up with Tom Tancredo and Heath Shuler is demonizing minorities than in facing up to a fatally flawed policy that has his name written all over it.

Perhaps one day Chris Van Hollen will tell Emanuel that he isn't the boss anymore. But don't count on it. Instead we need to count on ourselves.


UPDATE: EVEN IF EMANUEL WON'T MOVE, WES CLARK HAS

Wes is a real leader and he just sent this letter out to his list:

Pouring rain. 10-hour long lines. A final margin of just 2%. This was Ohio in 2004.

But one year before any votes are cast in the general election, we have a chance to send a message to voters in Ohio and across the country: 2008 will not be 2004.

Robin Weirauch is running for the open seat in Ohio's 5th congressional district. Voters will be hitting the ballot box in less than two weeks on December 11.

A victory in OH-5 will send a message across Ohio and America that voters are ready to turn the page on George W. Bush and the Republicans. Contribute to Robin's campaign today!

http://www.actblue.com/pages/WinOhio5

As the daughter of a retired Master Staff Sergeant in the United States Air Force, Robin will do more than simply repeat slogans like "Support the Troops." She will fight to bring a responsible end to the war in Iraq and make sure our veterans receive the health care they deserve.

A former Emergency Medical Technician and the wife of a retired police officer, Robin has honest middle class values. She understands the critical issues for working-class people such as education, fair trade policies, and bringing good jobs back to Northwest Ohio. She will ensure that all Americans have access to the opportunities that will help them and their children succeed in the 21st Century.

Northwest Ohio and Congress need Robin's strong, honest, independent voice.

Give Robin the final push she needs to win this seat for Democrats and give us the momentum we need heading into the 2008 elections!

http://www.actblue.com/pages/WinOhio5

Like many of the races I've asked you to help with in the past, this is a tough district. It's a Republican district, but as I've said before, we've got to compete everywhere. Republican districts can become Democratic districts. Republican states can become Democratic states. But only if we contest the seats.

I remember campaigning last year in Montana with Jon Tester, standing with Jim Webb in Virginia, and barnstorming some of the reddest Congressional districts in the final days of the 2006 elections. With you by my side, we changed the map.

We have the chance to do it again. Bush won this district by 20 points in 2004, but in 2006, Governor Ted Strickland and Senator Sherrod Brown carried it for Democrats. Now in this special election, just 13 days away, Robin Weirauch can win Ohio's 5th district...with your help.

Please rush a contribution to Robin in these final days before the special election on December 11.

http://www.actblue.com/pages/WinOhio5

You are helping to change our country, and I can't thank you enough for all you do.

Sincerely,

Wes Clark

And thank you, General Clark, for doing what Chris Van Hollen should do-- with or without Rahm Emanuel's blessing.

CIVIL WAR AT THE DCCC?

With the GOP out of favor, reactionaries still have a potent weapon against ordinary Americans

Whether Trent Lott is just another rat deserting a sinking ship, or someone scurrying to cash in on lax rules for lobbyists before they tighten up in January, he clearly was not looking forward to years and years of fruitless opposition as the #2 guy in a dwindling, increasingly regional, self-destructive and shrill minority party. Today's Congressional Quarterly has a cover story everyone on Capitol Hill is reading, It's Looking Like Blue Skies All Over Again-- and that's blue skies like in not red skies-- and they're talking about the U.S., not Australia.

Just over a year ago, Democrats seized control of Congress because of the voters’ exhaustion with the war in Iraq and disgust at the Republican majority's increasingly brazen manipulation of the levers of power. Now, less than a year from the next election, little has happened to elevate the voters’ mood-- or their impression of the party that ruled the federal government from 2003 through 2006.

The GOP remains burdened with a highly unpopular war; President Bush’s troop “surge” in Iraq, initiated over strong Democratic objections, appears to have diminished the violence but has given no sign that it will lead to a big reduction in U.S. troops anytime soon. The corruption scandals, ethical challenges and settled Beltway mentality that helped drive Republicans into the wilderness have yet to dissolve from public memory.

So, even if Democrats have done little to burnish a reputation for running things any better-- as reflected in the extraordinarily low public approval ratings for the Congress they now control-- the fact remains: They may not have to.

That’s because every traditional indicator of election forecasting-- from public opinion polls and issue resonance to candidate recruitment and the “over/under” balance of seats in play-- suggests that congressional Democrats have just as much going for them in 2008 as they had in 2006, if not more. They now have the power of incumbency to give them added advantages in raising money, attracting top-tier candidates, controlling the legislative agenda and capturing the political zeitgeist.

How ironic that just as the popular revulsion against the Republican philosophy of governance and against Republicans themselves (corruption and bigotry) take hold in the public mind, significant numbers of Insider Democrats are trying to claim those very aspects of the GOP legacy for their own party! Rahm Emanuel and his faction seem intent on leading the Democrats down the Republican sink hole-- and, not coincidentally, right at a time when a real push for progressive values and principles (values and principles anathema to all Emanuel stands for and believes in)  could have a lasting impact of American social and political development. This is a real tragedy, especially when the progressive side of Congress is weak, disorganized and completely ineffectual. Nancy Pelosi has turned out to be the worst and most bungling disappointment progressives could have ever expected and the Progressive Caucus in general is next to worthless. It's why I am so insistent on electing real progressive leaders who can go in there and kick some butt-- candidates like Darcy Burner, John Laesch, Donna Edwards, Barry Welsh... real fighters who are not just on the right side, but who are willing to fight hard to win. I would take, for example, these 4 over 20 new Democrats who want nothing more than to fit in with the Insider Establishment.

Yet while, as Congressional Quarterly asserts today, "it’s now dawning on members of both parties that a Democratic sweep-- with gains in Congress accompanied by a reclaiming of the White House--  is the inescapable 'morning line' assumption going into the 2008 campaign season, a war for the soul of the Democratic Party seems to be breaking out-- quietly and completely under the radar-- in, of all places, the DCCC.

The old guard (conservative-leaning or, at best, apolitical Rahm Emanuel loyalists) are trying to maintain tactical control of the organization, making it difficult for marginally more progressive and grassroots-oriented members of Chris Van Hollen's new guard. Ironically, the battle is coming to a head over a congressional race almost no one outside of Ohio is even aware of.

Last Thursday we looked at the special election for the congressional seat being filled December 11 because of the death of Republican Paul Gillmor in OH-05. Robin, a serious progressive Democrat with overwhelming grassroots support is poised to pull off a spectacular victory in a district that is conventionally considered "red." But it isn't as red as Insider the Beltway prognosticators and Powercrats would have us believe. Certainly Ohio Senator Sherrod Brown and Ohio Governor Ted Strickland, each of whom won the district last year, know it is far from a lost cause.

Many at the DCCC feel the same way and want to see the DCCC in there fighting alongside Robin and her grassroots supporters. Aside from endorsements by Senator Brown and Governor Strickland, 7 members of the Ohio congressional delegation have endorsed Robin: Marcy Kaptur, Tim Ryan, Dennis Kucinich, Zack Space, Betty Sutton, Stephanie Tubbs-Jones and Charlie Wilson. The story in last week's Nation calls her campaign "smart and aggressive." But the Emanuel contingent will have none of it. Emanuel would just as soon see a pro-NAFTA, anti-immigrant, pro-corporate, anti-progressive Republican zealot in the seat than an independent-minded grassroots Democrat like Robin. He and his allies have prevented the DCCC from getting involved with the race.

Emanuel is a boil on the body politick and the bane of grassroots participation in the electoral process. As I pointed out earlier, he is a representative of the rich and powerful and every but as much an enemy of working and middle class Americans as any Republican. Its a boil that needs to be lanced.

RAHM EMANUEL MIGHT NOT WANT DEMOCRATS TO KNOW, BUT THERE IS AN IMPORTANT ELECTION IN OHIO ON DECEMBER 11

Yesterday I got a pssstttt from a Beltway Insider who's also a pal of mine. "Don't connect this to me but there's a candidate running in OH-05 that you'd love," he confided. "Yeah, Robin Weirauch; I've already been covering the race. But why are you bringing this up? Is Emanuel behind her? Doesn't seem to be his type of candidate; she comes across like a real solid Democrat."

"No," he assured me; "you should check with your DCCC sources but my impression is there's no way in hell Weirauch has anything to do with Emanuel. I don't want to play psychiatrist but I don't think he sees a woman who worked at a college whose main campaign issues are fair trade and ending the war as someone he looks at and says, 'that's my candidate.' Now  if Weirauch were a centrist who was a sheriff or something, I think he'd be pushing to get involved with the district."

But Robin Weirauch a grassroots, down-to-earth populist Democrat and Emanuel is sitting on his hands. Local Ohio bloggers aren't. AsOhioGoes, OhioDailyBlog and BuckeyeStateBlog are all pumped up. Inside the Beltway hacks like Charlie Cook and Rahm Emanuel may be saying the race is hopeless for Democrats because Bush took the district against Kerry with 61% and because Paul Gillmor, recently passed away, won with 67% in 2002 and 2004 (though down to only 57%-- against Robin-- last year). But her progress against the entrenched incumbent isn't the only thing they're overlooking back at the DCCC. Governor Ted Strickland and Senator Sherrod Brown both won the district last year, which certainly flies right in the face of conventional Beltway wisdom. And Bush's job approval rating in Ohio has been sinking lower and lower. Last count: 31%. On top of that, the Republican Party just went through a bruising primary between a mainstream conservative and an extremist proto-fascist. The conservative, Bob Latta, won but he's still trying to unite the his own party behind him-- trying but not succeeding-- instead of reaching out to independents and Democrats.

The special election is December 11. Emanuel has already decided to let the race go to the Republicans. It's up to grassroots Democrats with values and ideals his kind don't share with us to support our candidates. You can learn more about her campaign at her website, where you can also volunteer or donate.

MORE REPUBLICAN WOES... IN OHIO AND MARYLAND

A couple weeks ago we mentioned in passing that the Ohio Republican Party was being traumatized by a death match between a garden variety mainstream conservative (Bob Latta) and a drooling neo-Nazi Club For Growth maniac (Steve Buehrer) seeking to replace the recently deceased Congressman Paul Gillmor in northwest Ohio. Turns out the rubber stamp Latta beat the Club For Growth kook in a down to the wire vicious, party-splitting grudge match and he will now face a Democratic Party firmly united behind Robin Weirauch (December 11). Weirauch ran against Gillmor in 2004 and won just 33% of the vote. Last year, however, she made huge headway and wound up with 43% of the vote. It's still a long shot but not out of reach, especially not if Bush's popularity even in rural parts of Ohio like the 5th CD continues to plummet.

Today's Congressional Quarterly reports that "with all precincts reporting, Latta had 43.7 percent of the vote to 40.1 percent for Buehrer... The Latta-Buehrer race was an often unruly affair in which each candidate accused the other of lying about his opponent’s legislative record and stances on taxes and social issues." Basically they were arguing over which was more of an extremist lunatic, each trying to lay claim to that distinction. After having loudly abandoned the electoral center and having inflicted ghastly political wounds on each other, Democrats are hopeful that Weirauch could pull off an upset in this lilly white, deeply red district that gave Bush a 61% win in 2004.

Around the same time we first started looking into the crazy contest between the 2 mudslinging Ohio Republicans, we also took a look at the bizarre situation in Maryland's 6th CD, where far right rubber stamp Roscoe Bartlett has so confounded moderate voters in his district by voting as though he lived in some kind of Texas backwater that he has made himself vulnerable to a challenge from progressive Democrat Andrew Duck. An excellent diary at Daily Kos today quantifies exactly what I was saying. Bartlett's job approval ratings are now in Bush territory, quite fitting when you see how he has voted over the last 7 years. And although MD-06 is even "redder" than OH-05, a poll shows that if the election were held today, Bartlett would be out hunting for honest work tomorrow.

VICIOUS REPUBLICAN CADAVER-EATING CANNIBALS REPORTED IN NORTHWEST OHIO

"Brain, brains... must find brains"

When 10 term Republican incumbent Rep., Paul Gillmor died the first week in September, the GOP was confident that they could hold on to his sprawling northwest Ohio district. After all, it's 94% white, has a huge Republican voter registration advantage, and elected Bush with 61% in 2004. Robin Weirauch, the woman who lost to Gillmor in 2004 and 2006 declared she would run again. Why worry? Well, let's forget, for a monment, that as voters have gotten to know Weirauch better, her totals have gone up considerably-- from 33% in 2004 to 43% last year. Instead, let's take a look at the Republican field.

The two Republicans in this race are a right-wing state Representative, Bob Latta, and an extreme right-wing state senator, Steve Buehrer. Both are kooks but Buehrer is a drooling nazi-- supported, predicatbly, by the Club For Growth, a hard right faction of the Republican Party. Thursday the Ohio Elections Commission ruled against Buehrer and his fascist backers in a complaint brought against them by Latta that he was being smeared. I always have to laugh when conservatives complain that the fascist end of their party is smearing them; a little taste of a medicine they love to dish out but can't ever seem to swallow.

And it gets even funnier. Yesterday, just one day after the Elections Commission ruled against them for maligning Latta, the Club for Growth and Buehrer were running a uarter million dollar barrage of radio and TV ads against Latta. Latta's campaign says the tactics will backfire-- but we're talking about very low common denominator Republicans here, so it's more likely that they will be easily programmed to hate Latta and worship Buehrer. Matt Parker, Latta's campaign manager, said "the people of northwest Ohio are not ready for a candidate who is... bought and paid for by an outside group." Perhaps not the "people" in general. But the Republican base? What else have they been trained-- like seals-- to do?

The special primary election is November 6. Meanwhile Robin Weirauch is taking the opportunity to point out the vicious mess the GOP primary has develoved into. She's has been on the attack too-- but on the level of ideas and policy. Her own new  ad calls out Bush and the rubber stamp Republicans who sustained his S-CHIP veto. She called attention to it by telling the local media that, "While my Republican opponents Bob Latta and Steve Buehrer are focused on tearing each other down, I'm focused on the issues that matter to working families." She asked Latta and Buehrer to tell the voters where they stand on S-CHIP leguslation and Bush's veto. Buehrer said he would have voted to sustain the veto and latta ducked the question, saying he'd have to look into it. Either Latta or Buehrer will face Weirauch on December 11.