REPUBLICANS FACE UP TO THE REALITY OF BEING SWAMPED BY A POWERFUL TSUNAMI OF ANGER AND FRUSTRATION FROM VOTERS

A few weeks ago I pointed out that even Larry Sabato's rear-view analysis of electoral politics was leading him to think the Democrats might win a coupla seats. Well, forget Sabato... now, even The Washington Post is starting to see the handwriting on the wave. Well... not exactly the actual Post, but Chris Cillizza who does "The Fix" for them, asks the question, "Is A Democratic Wave Building?" He sites 5 polls by Newsweek, Fox, A.P., Post/ABC, and CNN that all answer "yes"-- in double digits.

He quotes Charlie Cook explaining that "The last three generics that I have seen have been in the 18 or 19 point range, which is on the high side of extra large. That suggests the probability of large Democratic gains." I've never heard Charlie Cook step out on a ledge before-- ever. And Stu Rothenberg agrees. "The generic surely reflects voters dissatisfaction with the President and his party and their inclination to support Democrats in the fall. The size of the Democrats' generic advantage also can't be ignored. It too suggests the likelihood of a partisan wave, even though it does not guarantee the fate of any individual Republican incumbent."

Cillizza suggests that if the Democrats start looking like winners in GOP-held seats in CT-05 (a toss-up between longtime Republican congresswoman Nancy Johnson and Chris Murphy), IN-02 (a northern Indiana district that looks like they'll be trading in screwy wingnut Chris Chocola for moderate Democrat Joe Donnelly), OH-01 (the "other" Cincinnati district, Sherrod Brown tipped me off is going to dump rubber stamp Steven Chabot in favor of John Cranley), PA-08 (a tight race between clueless Bush rubber stamper Michael Flitzgerald and Fightin' Dem Patrick Murphy) and IL-10 (a district just north of Chicago where it looks highly likely that Mark Kirk has rubber stamped his last Bush proposal as Dan Seals moves to Congress), it is curtains for the villains come November. For Cillizza these are indicator districts and if they start moving towards Democratic victories, it;s indicative of a coming landslide of outsized proportions.