LARRY SABATO FINALLY GETS IT: A WAVE OF REVULSION AGAINST BUSH AND HIS RUBBER STAMP REPUBLICANS IS BUILDING

Progressives usually complain that Larry Sabato's always much quoted analysis of races usually tilts towards the right. Not today. He just released his newest "Crystal Ball," and the premise is that Republicans on every level are being tarred with the hated policies associated with the discredited BushCheney Regime. Like Charlie Cook, Sabato has finally realized that the tsunami building in the American heartland will-- unless Republicans manage to steal elections electronically-- virtually swamp the party and drive them away from the levers of power.

"Just over one month ago, the Crystal Ball argued that a larger wave than currently existed at the time would have to build in order for Republicans to lose their congressional majorities. At the time, the race-by-race rather than national dynamic of competitive races pointed more towards a 'micro-wave' than a 'macro-wave' for out-of-power Democrats. But now, with a quarter of time elapsed between that pulse-reading and the election, surer signs are emerging that something more substantial than a 'micro-wave' is heating up this summer. Historical trends and big picture indicators -- generic congressional ballot tests and approval ratings of President Bush's job performance in particular-- have always been heavily stacked against the GOP in this 'sixth year itch' cycle, but aggregations of more race-specific indicators are now suggesting that Republicans are headed for their most serious midterm losses in decades."

For Sabato it's all about Democrats convincing voters that the rubber stamp Republicans are tied to Bush. Ned Lamont seems to have succeeded in Connecticut and today's polling data indicates that Lieberman's (technically still not an actual Republican) connivance with the Bush Regime will cost him his party's nod on Tuesday.

"In the past month or so," continues Sabato, "it's appeared as if Democrats have been on the upswing almost effortlessly as members of the GOP have suffered under the burden of the administration's sagging numbers. More individual races are attracting the attention of voters and donors as Election Day comes into closer view, the overwhelming preponderance of finance reports and voter surveys released in the last month have shown races moving in principally one direction-- towards Democrats."

He points to increasing Democratic success at fundraising, with citizens motivated to finance the ouster of Republicans across the board. And he cites race after race where Democrats actually are "clobbering" Republicans, despite his own skepticism. He seems ready to write off Republican senate candidates in Minnesota, Ohio, Rhode Island, Montana, Missouri. And it's not just in the Senate races that Republicans are drowning in their own shit. "In congressional and gubernatorial races, numbers released by myriad survey research organizations, both partisan and independent, have also shown Democrats gaining ground. But often the story is best told by the polls that aren't released: in the past month, the Crystal Ball has encountered a veritable ocean of polling data released by Democratic candidates and consultants touting substantial (if unbelievable) advances, but GOP firms haven't been nearly as eager to release private polling." Always the conservative, he has just upped his prediction from a net gain of 6-8 Democratic House seats to a net gain of 12-15 seats for the Democrats. (The DWT prediction is for as many as 40 seats for the relative good guys.) He also ups his Senate prediction to as many as 6 Democratic wins-- one more than my own! (Aside from the races above, he seems to give Republicans in Pennsylvania and Florida virtually no chance to win their races.