Thursday, August 03, 2006

LARRY SABATO FINALLY GETS IT: A WAVE OF REVULSION AGAINST BUSH AND HIS RUBBER STAMP REPUBLICANS IS BUILDING

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Progressives usually complain that Larry Sabato's always much quoted analysis of races usually tilts towards the right. Not today. He just released his newest "Crystal Ball," and the premise is that Republicans on every level are being tarred with the hated policies associated with the discredited BushCheney Regime. Like Charlie Cook, Sabato has finally realized that the tsunami building in the American heartland will-- unless Republicans manage to steal elections electronically-- virtually swamp the party and drive them away from the levers of power.

"Just over one month ago, the Crystal Ball argued that a larger wave than currently existed at the time would have to build in order for Republicans to lose their congressional majorities. At the time, the race-by-race rather than national dynamic of competitive races pointed more towards a 'micro-wave' than a 'macro-wave' for out-of-power Democrats. But now, with a quarter of time elapsed between that pulse-reading and the election, surer signs are emerging that something more substantial than a 'micro-wave' is heating up this summer. Historical trends and big picture indicators -- generic congressional ballot tests and approval ratings of President Bush's job performance in particular-- have always been heavily stacked against the GOP in this 'sixth year itch' cycle, but aggregations of more race-specific indicators are now suggesting that Republicans are headed for their most serious midterm losses in decades."

For Sabato it's all about Democrats convincing voters that the rubber stamp Republicans are tied to Bush. Ned Lamont seems to have succeeded in Connecticut and today's polling data indicates that Lieberman's (technically still not an actual Republican) connivance with the Bush Regime will cost him his party's nod on Tuesday.

"In the past month or so," continues Sabato, "it's appeared as if Democrats have been on the upswing almost effortlessly as members of the GOP have suffered under the burden of the administration's sagging numbers. More individual races are attracting the attention of voters and donors as Election Day comes into closer view, the overwhelming preponderance of finance reports and voter surveys released in the last month have shown races moving in principally one direction-- towards Democrats."

He points to increasing Democratic success at fundraising, with citizens motivated to finance the ouster of Republicans across the board. And he cites race after race where Democrats actually are "clobbering" Republicans, despite his own skepticism. He seems ready to write off Republican senate candidates in Minnesota, Ohio, Rhode Island, Montana, Missouri. And it's not just in the Senate races that Republicans are drowning in their own shit. "In congressional and gubernatorial races, numbers released by myriad survey research organizations, both partisan and independent, have also shown Democrats gaining ground. But often the story is best told by the polls that aren't released: in the past month, the Crystal Ball has encountered a veritable ocean of polling data released by Democratic candidates and consultants touting substantial (if unbelievable) advances, but GOP firms haven't been nearly as eager to release private polling." Always the conservative, he has just upped his prediction from a net gain of 6-8 Democratic House seats to a net gain of 12-15 seats for the Democrats. (The DWT prediction is for as many as 40 seats for the relative good guys.) He also ups his Senate prediction to as many as 6 Democratic wins-- one more than my own! (Aside from the races above, he seems to give Republicans in Pennsylvania and Florida virtually no chance to win their races.

5 Comments:

At 12:24 PM, Blogger Scott said...

I have a premise and I am wondering what you think. Let's say a few days before the election in November many races for congress, for example, are showing Democrats ahead by 6-10% in the polls for individual races while nationally the polls show Bush/Cheney and the Republicans down like they are now and yet somehow these Democrats still lose many of the races against their opponents.

Without exit polling, which apparently they are not going to do this midterm election cycle, what do you think will happen? Will the media simply say it was a last minute decision in the voting booth that isn't statistically possible? Will they wake up and say something is terribly wrong and this is fraud and was a stolen election?

The reason I bring this up is that I believe the Republicans will do anything they can to remain in power. They will steal this midterm election because they know if they lose control of the house there will be hearings on all the corruption that most people haven't heard about and they can't afford this to happen. It will destroy them and expose these Neo-Cons for what they are.

Am I the only one who is worried about this scenario?

 
At 3:08 PM, Blogger KenInNY said...

I hear you, Scott, and your scenario seems to me all too solidly within the bounds of possibility.

Obviously we share the suspicion that those "wrong" exit polls weren't wrong at all. If the scenario DOES play out the way you sketch it, I'll be damned if I know what would happen. I think the mainstream media are just beginning to grasp the idea that elections might just possibly be jiggered at some time in the future, and are nowhere near grasping that it's already been happening for years now, and that the election-stealing becomes more widespread and sophisticated with each election cycle.

So I think that, while there would likely be more outcry than ever from the ranks of the election-skeptical, in the country at large it will still be written off as the overheated imagination of those nutty bloggers.

K

 
At 9:42 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Let's get people to the polling places with video cams and web feeds to record in real time how people voted. All day long, all over the country. Especially in Ohio.

If what you suggest actually happens, then I think it's time for another American Revolution.

I don't even want to use my real name. I'm afraid they'll come after me for having such a thought. (I feel like I'm living in a foreign country, or a very bad dream).

 
At 10:52 AM, Blogger Scott said...

K, the exit polls weren't wrong. The more I read and discover about it the more certain I become.

I just don't know how they expect to steal the election with polls being done right up to election even if they don't do exit polls.

 
At 12:27 PM, Blogger KenInNY said...

How? Isn't that what they have Karl Rove for?

I figure it'll be a combination of all-gall brazenness (you do it and then let them try and take it away from you) with the usual bag o' tricks: indignant denials, irrelevant razzle-dazzle, misdirection (maybe there will be a county in Nevada where the Democratic vote is found to be overcounted by 3--this will demonstrates that these little errors offset each other), and of course as many frantic changes-of-subject as are needed.

I would say, though, that as a result, more people will have their suspicions aroused (or convinced), just as has been happening with each of these stolen-election cycles.

Remember, "getting away with" is these people's specialty. And surely Karl R's motto must be:

"How do you know you can't get away with something if you haven't tried?"

Ken

 

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