Wednesday, June 07, 2006

HUGE WIN FOR TESTER-- MORNING AFTER PRIMARY RESULTS

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My first look at the Montana results at THE MISSOULIAN were pretty encouraging. With 5 Democrats and 4 Republicans (including incumbent Conrad Burns) vying for the seat, Jon Tester had more votes than the other 8 combined. Meanwhile the live election bloggers at Left In The West reported that early voting from Helena broke 3 to 1 for Tester. Every early indication was that the progressive, populist, Tester, was completely slaughtering the DLC hack, Morrison. Tester was even kicking his ass in what analysts claim are Morrison strongholds. I jotted a note, "This race is over and it's only 8:30PM Pacific Time. The netroots, grassroots and progressives have their first big victory over the Inside-the-Beltway scum for 2006. The DSCC and DLC were behind Morrison and delivered bupkes." Tester had nothing going for him but his impeccable integrity, a great record of accomplishment and a populism that appeals to real people (and frightens hack politicos and their Big Business allies). Now comes the big battle-- Tester taking on Jack Abramoff's biggest Senate bribe-taker, right-wing loon Conrad Burns. The DWT ACT BLUE Page helped Tester win the primary. Now we should help him defeat one of the absolutely worst senators in the whole country.

David Sirota, whose brilliant book, HOSTILE TAKEOVER, opens with him trying to get back to Montana on a screwed up airline, has a really great analysis of what happened there last night-- and what it means to the Democratic Party and the country. Short answer: bye-bye Conrad Burns and look out Inside-the-Beltway power establishment. "Tonight is a terrible night for Conrad Burns, not only because one of his primary challengers got almost a quarter of GOP votes, but because Democrats now have Jon Tester carrying the flag against him. Burns barely eked out a victory last time against Schweitzer-- then an unknown first-time candidate. Now, severely damaged by his connections to high-profile corruption scandals, Burns is facing a Schweitzer-style populist-- but one who is better-known than Schweitzer was during his dark horse Senate bid in 2000. It's Tester Time-- and that means Burns' days in the Senate are numbered."

The two late states, Montana and California had the most exciting-- and important-- races but there were 6 other states around the country that had primaries today. There were no hot races in New Mexico. South Dakota Democrats were looking for the best challenger for the anti-choice wingnut incumbent, Mike Rounds, and Jack Billion took it away, handily.

Alabama Democrats and Republicans made sane choices in their primaries for Governor. The Democrats voted overwhelmingly for Lucy Baxley over crooked ex-Governor Don Siegelman and Republicans endorsed the mainstream conservative Bob Riley over psycho-Nazi Roy Moore (the ex-Chief Justice religionist nut), also by a lopsided margin. Iowa's 3-way Democratic primary led to victory for Chet Culver, as expected by most observers.

The only vaguely interesting race in Mississippi was a challenge by somewhat Republican-friendly Chuck Espy to decidedly not Republican-friendly incumbent Bennie Thompson. It's a heavily Democratic district-- winning the Democratic primary means 2 years in DC-- and the GOP urged their supporters to re-register temporarily as Democrats to vote for Espy. They fear Thompson. And Thompson completely kicked Espy's ass.

And in New Jersey there was basically one contested primary (with a pulse), for the seat vacated by ex-Congressman/now Senator Bob Menendez. The NJ Democratic Party machine was behind Albio Sires and he beat the insurgent Democrat, Joseph Vas. The Republicans had some messiness in Bergen County-- a county whose Party Kean needs to be functional if he's doing to have even a chance against Menendez in November. It looks like it won't be.

Anyway, as I headed off to bed in time to watch THE DAILY SHOW, about a quarter of the California statewide vote had been counted and it looked like all the preferred candidates were winning, especially Debra Bowen. It was also apparent that McNerney was maintaining his tremendous margin and that even Francine Busby's narrow loss in CA-50 had a silver lining, since she made the Republicans pay very, very dearly-- as much as $5 million-- for what was always considered a very safe Republican seat. In 2004 she lost by 22%; this time she lost by 4.5%-- and she gets another chance in November, having won the Democratic primary. Independents broke solidly for Busby, perhaps as much as 9-1, but the low turn-out hurt her chances. She still managed to hold Bilbray under 50%. (By the way, if the 18% shift in CA-50 is carried forward through the whole country in November, the Republican majority in the House will be reduced to the pitiful rump it deserves to be.)

A little aside: while I was waiting for more California votes to come in, I walked over to the TV and skipped around the dial. Not one English-language TV was even mentioning returns or elections. Two Spanish language stations were carrying results.

Let's look at the California results. The billionaire DLC patsy, Steve Westly, lost to solidly progressive Phil Angelides. Westly ran the most destructive and negative Democratic primary I've ever seen in my life and he turned off hundreds of thousands of voters with his blitz of viciously negative anti-Angelides ads (which Angelides was forced to answer in kind). I'm so glad he lost and wasted so much of his own money. He really sucks. The state race I was most concerned about-- for Secretary of State-- was decisively won by Debra Bowen. That should signal a death blow for Republican vote counting fraudmeisters Dielbold. As expected Jerry Brown won his race for Attorney General without breaking a sweat. I have a dream that he'll be Spitzer-like.

About 13% of Democratic primary voters sent a message to Dianne Feinstein that they weren't happy with her performance, but she didn't have any credible opposition. It also looks like quite a few Democrats who voted just didn't bother to vote in the Senate race.

The most important congressional race in the state yesterday-- and the nation-- pitted progressive grassroots candidate Jerry McNerney against Inside-the-Beltway shill Steve Filson. The people of CA-11 told Rahm Emanuel, Ellen Tauscher and the corporately-oriented creeps in their anti-democratic clique where to get off. In the 3-way race, McNerney took 52.5% of the vote and the DCCC puppet took 28.6%. This was a resounding victory for the grassroots, not unlike the more high profile Tester win in Montana.

Marcy Winograd's heroic effort in CA-36 drew nearly 40% of the vote against entrenched incumbent Jane Harman, giving her the scare of her political life. Expect to see her less eager to shill for Bush and the GOP corporate agenda in the future. My bet is we won't hear her bragging that she's "the best Republican in the Democratic Party" again.

A quick look at the other congressional primaries around the state. Two big shocks: Cynthia Rodriguez Matthews edged out Russ Warner in CA-26 and she will face Dreier again. Most people were not even aware she was running again! And in CA-02 Arjinderpal Sekhon (the 2002 candidate who was trounced back then) beat Bill Falzett-- 55.6 to 44.4-- and will face off against right-wing nutcase Wally Herger in November in this extremely Republican district. As expected, Charlie Brown won his 3-way primary and will face John Doolittle in November unless Doolittle is in prison by then. He is likely to continue campaigning even if he is indicted-- which looks more likely every day-- before November. Progressive Lynn Woolsey (CA-06) walked away with 66% of the vote after a spirited challenge from the even more progressive Joe Nation. In the 5-way race to challenge prime Republicrook Duncan Hunter (CA-52), John Rinaldi was the overwhelming victor. (More on him soon.)

In the 2 other Winograd-Harman-like L.A. races where anti-war candidates were challenging established Democrats who supported Bush's war policies in Iraq-- CA 28, where Charles Coleman was beaten by Howard Berman and CA-29, where the even more conservative Adam Schiff beat Bob McCloskey-- low-key, un-funded campaigns with almost no voter awareness led to dismal results.

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3 Comments:

At 2:48 PM, Blogger Paul said...

In the Ca.52nd race Rinaldi was actually the least preferred choice among the progressives down here. He looked promising in the beginning but he got into smearing the other candidates who all campaigned together under the anti-war banner. He had the money to back him up with publicity while the rest wore out their shoes campaigning the hard way.
He's still the lesser of 2 evils compared to Hunter but evil is still evil eh? In the La Mesa Flag Day parade last saturday he rode in the back of a gas guzzling monster truck. Wish he wasn't so republicanish.....yeeeck!

A parade footnote: A buddy and myself got dressed up all patriotic and handed out flyers for Karen Otter and although there weren't many Dems in the crowd, every one of them took an "impeach bush" sticker that was also being offered. How's that for an informal poll supporting impeachment?
I think Busby lost in part because she tried to distance herself from the anti-war element. Too bad. In the pre-election commercials she was portrayed as a liberal anyway.
The Rethuglicans aren't going to let the Dems look like middle of the roaders even if they could.
Pfffffft. I'm so sick of middle of the road.......it's so nothing, so beige, so vanilla. Who the fuck cares about middle of the road? All you see in the middle of the road is dead possums!

 
At 6:32 PM, Blogger john said...

I should go to my PO Box more often.
Thank you so much for the CD. Son Dylan took possesion
of it tonight and liked it. I'll listen tomorrow.
That was real nice of you and it gives me something to
remember this adventure by. Thanks Howie for
revitalizing my politics. I was pretty sure no one I
ever supported would win again and went to bed early
last night so I could avoid what I was feeling would
be bad news again. A work friend called and woke me up
at 10:30 when Morrison conceded and gave us the great
news. Then I couldn't get back to sleep for joy of
actually being on a winning candidate's side. I was
grilling tonight thinking that the whole thing has
made my life just a bit more exciting and true to my
soul.
Thanks also for the nice piece on Tester that you kept
up there today. It was a great group effort! My wife
says thanks too.
Later,
John

 
At 11:25 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Just got the below email from the DCCC -- note that the Tester victory is not mentioned & Busby's campaign is touted as some kind of model which I think many of us would question. Would be funny if not so predictable.

***

Dear Friend,

In a race that unexpectedly became one of the most competitive in congressional history, Francine Busby sent a shot across the GOP bow and proved that even in the most reliably Republican district, the message of change and a new direction for the country is resonating with voters.

As an editorial in The Washington Post wrote this morning...

"If Republican were breathing easier this morning, they had few illusions about what lies ahead. The extraordinary effort to hold onto a seat that has long been safely in GOP hands underscored the challenges as they try to retain their congressional majorities in November at a time when President Bush's approval ratings remain weak, the party's coalition is fracturing and voters are repulsed by the taint of corruption in Washington."

Francine was a tough candidate who fought hard. She couldn't have come as far as she did without the support of our members like you in districts nationwide. She will have another opportunity to win this seat in November, when Republicans in her district will once again be divided. But, the truth revealed in this election is that voters are demanding change and new priorities. This November, in districts around the country -- many more moderate than Busby's -- we will be fighting for new priorities in Congress. The NRCC can't spend almost five million dollars in every district to keep their majority.

CA-50 is a district that President Bush carried by 11 points in both 2000 and 2004 - this race should not have been close. By all measures this was a safe Republican Congressional seat. Yet, Francine Busby forced the Republican Party to spend close to five million defending it - the most federal money the NRCC has spent on a House race, ever.

As Carl Luna [1], a political science professor at San Diego Mesa College put it...

"This race, of course, should have attracted almost no attention from anyone outside of the candidates' immediate families, let alone national news coverage and millions of dollars in national campaign money. The Republican candidate, be it Brian Bilbray or Zippy the Wonder Pup, should have been assured this seat hands down. And, as the Republican nominee, Bilbray should have been hanging ten right now to an assured, double digit victory.

"Key words: should have."

After spending more than five million dollars - more than 20% of their reserves for November -- and using national Republican leaders like George W. Bush, John McCain and Laura Bush, and running viciously negative ads, Brian Bilbray and the NRCC were able to pull out less than 50 percent of the vote in a solidly Republican district. We've got them on the ropes, but we also know that they are not going down without a fight. The fact that the DCCC and Democrats across the country are already competitive or ahead of Republicans in campaign funds and polling numbers is unprecedented, but we need to keep up the momentum until November.

Francine Busby's hard charging campaign demonstrated that we can and will bring this message of change and new priorities to Americans across the country. Not just in Democratic or moderate districts, but deep into the heart of Republican territory. During these last five months, Democrats in Republican districts from Pennsylvania to Washington state will look to Francine's campaign as an example.

More Primaries, More Change:

And indeed, California's 50th was not the only Congressional district with a primary election:

In Iowa, Democrat Bruce Braley came out strong and ready to fight against an avid Republican supporter of Social Security privatization Mike Whalen for a pivotal open seat in the first district.


In New Mexico, Democratic candidate Patricia Madrid, currently New Mexico's Attorney General, emerged from her primary to take on Republican rubber stamp Heather Wilson.


In New Jersey, Linda Stender came out of the primary in New Jersey ready to take on an increasingly vulnerable Republican Mike Ferguson, known by House colleagues for his fierce opposition to choice and stem cell research. Another of the most extreme Republicans in Congress, Scott Garrett, will face a stiff challenge from Democrat Paul Aronsohn, and former State Assembly Speaker Albio Sires showed solid support in his effort to keep Bob Menendez' seat in Democratic hands now that's he left for the Senate.


In Montana, State Legislator Monica Lindeen emerged from today's primary with an overwhelming show of support from Montana voters who are increasingly sick and tired of Republican Denny Rehberg's brand of special interest leadership.

Thank you for all your support and all that you do. The field is taking shape, and our team is looking better than ever. Five months to go, buckle your seatbelt.

Sincerely,

Rahm Emanuel

 

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