Trump Has Led The GOP Into A Death Spiral-- Last Night Was Just A Taste Of What's Coming

This morning, Aaron Blake noted at the Washington Post that "When President Trump was elected, he promised the GOP that they would win so much they would get tired of it. But for a third successive election year since then, the Republican Party has walked away the loser." Also this morning a top Democratic congressional staffer told me that she spoke to "two different Republican Hill staffers who have expressed serious concerns with how badly last night went for them. They described Virginia and Kentucky outcomes as canaries in the coal mine for 2020. Despite all the negative news and concerning polls, they were holding out hope that the DC news cycle wasn't breaking through in the rest of the country. That illusion was shattered last night and now congressional Republicans are starting to realize what it will be like to run with Trump in 2020. It appears impeachment politics aren't as catastrophic to Democrats as initially thought; the Kentucky gubernatorial race was pitted as a referendum on impeachment in a state Trump won by 30 and the incumbent Republican still lost. Trump made the election about him (which he will of course do in 2020) and the result was a complete disaster for his party." As we mentioned last night, the Democrats won and Trump lost. Even in Mississippi, in the heart of the Confederacy/Trumplandia, Lt. Gov. Tate Reeves' less-than-stellar win is dimmed when put into historical context:

• 2019- Reeves (R)- 443,063 (52.3%), Hood (D)- 394,177 (46.5%)
• 2015- Bryant (R)- 476,697 (66.4%), Gray (D)- 231,643 (32.3%)
• 2011- Bryant (R)- 544,851 (61%), DuPree (D)- 348,617 (39%)
• 2007- Barbour (R)- 430,807 (57.9%), Eaves (D)- 313,232 (42.1%)
• 2003- Barbour (R)- 470,404 (52.6%), Musgrove (D)- 409,787 (46.8%)

Reeves had the worst results of any Republican candidate in recent times. And that was the best news Trump and the GOP had yesterday.

Kentucky is one of Trump's best states. The PVI is R+15. Only Idaho, North Dakota, Oklahoma, Utah, West Virginia and Wyoming are redder. These are the 2016 results that were the best for Trump:

• West Virginia- 68.50, Hillary 26.43
• Wyoming- Trump 67.40%, Hillary 21.63%
• Oklahoma- Trump 65.32, Hillary 28.93%
• North Dakota- Trump 62.96%, Hillary 27.23%
• Kentucky- Trump 62.52%, Hillary 32.68%
• Alabama- Trump 62,08, Hillary 34.36%

If Trump's best effort-- and his non-stop efforts on behalf of Bevin was the best he is capable of-- couldn't win the day in Kentucky, how will Trump be able to help anyone anywhere? On Monday night Trump was in Lexington playing the role of clown on behalf of Bevin: "If you lose, they’re going to say Trump suffered the greatest defeat in the history of the world. You can’t let that happen to me!" They did. Two days before the election, Kentucky Secretary of State Alison Lundegan Grimes predicted that turnout would be 31%, essentially the same miserable turnout Kentucky had in the 1015 gubernatorial election (30.7%). She was way off. By yesterday 42% of eligible voters had cast ballots. It was 45% in Jefferson (Louisville) and 47% in Fayette (Lexington) counties, an increase in the two counties that put Beshear ahead of Bevin.

Moscow Mitch isn't the only Republican incumbent who slept poorly last night. GOP senators in Arizona, Maine, Colorado, Iowa, North Carolina, Georgia, Alaska and Montana did not sleep well last night. Last chart. This one shows Trump's net approval/disapproval in each these key Senate battleground states-- along with how much Trump's approval has fallen in each state since he occupied the White House. (It didn't rise in any state).

• Kentucky- plus 15 (down 19 points)
• Arizona- minus 4 (down 23 points)
• Maine- minus 13 (down 21 points)
• Colorado- minus 15 (down 16 points)
• Iowa- minus 14 (down 22 points)
• North Carolina- minus 3 (down)
• Georgia- plus 1 (down 17 points)
• Alaska- plus 1 (down 23 points)
• Montana- minus 3 (down 27 points)

As the AP made clear this morning "The suburban revolt against President Donald Trump’s Republican Party is growing. And if nothing else, the GOP’s struggle across the South on Tuesday revealed that Republicans don’t have a plan to fix it. In Kentucky, Trump and his allies went all in to rescue embattled Gov. Matt Bevin, who literally wrapped himself in the president’s image in his pugnacious campaign. In Virginia, embattled Republicans ran away from Trump, downplaying their support for his policies and encouraging him to stay away. In the end, neither strategy was a sure winner... [T]there’s little doubt Tuesday’s outcome is a warning to Republicans across the nation a year out from the 2020 election and a year after the 2018 midterms: The suburbs are still moving in the wrong direction."

“Republican support in the suburbs has basically collapsed under Trump,” Republican strategist Alex Conant said. “Somehow, we need to find a way to regain our suburban support over the next year.”

...[T]he GOP’s challenge was laid bare in places like Virginia’s Henrico County just outside Richmond.

Republican state Sen. Siobhan Dunnavant won there by almost 20 percentage points four years ago. The area has recently been transformed by an influx of younger, college-educated voters and minorities, a combination that’s become a recipe for Democrats’ support.

With the final votes still trickling in Tuesday night, Dunnavant was barely ahead [final: 50.88% to 48.95%] of Democrat Debra Rodman, a college professor who seized on Trump and her Republican opponent’s opposition to gun control to appeal to moderate voters.

In northern Virginia, Democrat John Bell flipped a state Senate district from red to blue in a district that has traditionally favored Republicans. The race, set in the rapidly growing and diverse counties outside of Washington, D.C., attracted nearly $2 million in political advertising.

Democrats’ surging strength in the suburbs reflects the anxiety Trump provokes among moderates, particularly women, who have rejected his scorched-earth politics and uncompromising conservative policies on health care, education and gun violence.

Republicans’ response in Virginia was to try to stay focused on local issues. In the election’s final days, Dunnavant encouraged Trump to stay out of the state. The president obliged, sending Vice President Mike Pence instead.

Struggling for a unifying message, some Republicans turned to impeachment, trying to tie local Democrats to their counterparts in Washington and the effort to impeach Trump.

No one played that card harder than Kentucky’s Bevin, who campaigned aside an “impeachment” banner and stood next to Trump on the eve of the election.

But even in ruby-red Kentucky, Trump was not a cure-all and the trouble in the suburbs emerged.

Bevin struggled in Republican strongholds across the northern part of the state, where the Democrats’ drift and increased enthusiasm was clear.

In 2015, Bevin won Campbell County south of Cincinnati handily. On Tuesday, Beshear not only carried the county with ease, he nearly doubled the number of Democratic votes there, compared to the Democratic nominee of four years ago. Beshear also found another 74,000 Democratic votes in urban Jefferson County, home of Louisville.

Beshear led Bevin by the narrowest of margins Tuesday night.

Republicans were quick to blame Bevin for his stumbles. The governor was distinctly unpopular and picked fights with powerful interests in the state. Still, it was difficult for Republicans not to note the warning signs for the party next year and beyond.

“They continue to lose needed support in suburban districts, especially among women and college-educated voters,” said Republican strategist Rick Tyler. “That trend, if not reversed, is a death spiral.”

Democratic enthusiasm and turnout was sky-high in Kentucky and Virginia, where Democrats ran on Democratic issues and values. In Mississippi, where the fake-Democrat ran on a repulsive anti-Choice/pro-NRA, GOP-lite record, there was no enthusiasm and Democratic turnout was terrible. (As I noted last night, even in New Jersey's only state Senate race-- the one to replace Blue Dog ass-wipe Jeff Van Drew-- Van Drew's handpicked right-wing candidate, Bob Andrzejczak, ran on a GOP-lite record and lost to the real Republican, Mike Testa 27,163 (53.47%) to 23,636 (46.53%). Count on the Democrats-- especially the DCCC-- to absolutely not learn a lesson from this.

The were local races all over the country and the Philadelphia Inquirer reported on how dismally they went for Republicans in Pennsylvania. "The political forces that shaped last year’s midterm elections," wrote Julia Terruso, showed no signs of abating Tuesday, as voters turned on Republicans and establishment Democrats alike in races from Philadelphia and Scranton to the suburbs of Delaware and Chester Counties... Locally, Democrats will hold all five seats on the Delaware County Council, a Republican stronghold since the Civil War, and also assumed a majority on the legislative body in Chester County. In Bucks County, Democrats also held a late lead for control of the board of commissioners in a close race. And in Philadelphia, a third-party insurgent candidate weakened an already marginalized GOP by securing one of the at-large City Council seats reserved for minority parties-- a seat Republicans have held for decades. 'It’s a new day in Delaware County,' said Elaine Schaefer, one of three Democrats elected Tuesday in Delaware County. Democrats had never held a majority on the county council in its history, let alone every seat."

We Met The Enemy And They Are Us by Nancy Ohanian

In Virginia and Kentucky Republicans did everything they could to tie Democrats to Bernie and AOC and to "Socialism!!" and the Green New Deal. The backfired for them badly. In Kentucky the top coal counties are Pike, Harlan, Hopkins, Muhlenberg, Perry, Letchner, Floyd, Union, Knott, Webster and Ohio. Trump beat Hillary in every one of them in 2016-- and by a lot. But in the primaries, Bernie won these counties. In Pike Co. Trump won with 80.1%. It was 77.2% in Perry, 72.0% in Muhlenberg and 84.9% in Harlan County.

Hillary won the Kentucky primary, entirely because of the black turn-out for her in Louisville and Lexington. But she was swamped in every one of the coal counties. Bernie beat her. But Bernie also beat Trump in every one of these counties

Pike- Bernie- 4,848, Hillary- 2,335, Trump- 840
Harlan- Bernie- 1,092, Hillary- 451, Trump- 189
Hopkins- Bernie-2,696 , Hillary- 1,690, Trump- 574
Muhlenberg- Bernie- 1,632, Hillary- 1,544, Trump- 338
Perry- Bernie- 1,666, Hillary- 839, Trump- 421
Letchner- Bernie- 1,788, Hillary- 838, Trump- 410
Floyd- Bernie- 4,010, Hillary- 2,327, Trump- 278
Union- Bernie- 1,106, Hillary- 672, Trump- 92
Knott- Bernie- 1,114, Hillary- 583, Trump- 37
Webster- Bernie- 1,169, Hillary- 693, Trump- 116
Ohio- Bernie- 943, Hillary- 778, Trump- 663

Last night, Beshear won some coal counties and lost some-- but out-performed Hillary massively in all these counties. The biggest coal county in the state is Pike. Beshear took 42.94% compared to Hillary's 17.4%. Beshear won Floyd County with 52.56% and won Knott County with 49.43% compared with 24.3% for Hillary in Floyd and 21.6% for Hillary in Knott.

That billboard was produced and placed by the DSCC, attempting to tie state Senator Erica Smith--the progressive running for the North Carolina U.S. Senate seat-- to AOC and Rashida Tlaib. They produced similar campaigns against Andrew Romanoff in Colorado and Betsy Sweet in Maine. This morning Erica turned the tables on them and ran the billboard as part of a fundraising appeal for herself!

"Republicans," she wrote, "aren't the only ones engaging in rigging elections and suppressing the will of voters in our state. The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC) has been rigging the US Senate race in NC for far too long and it has had disastrous effects on Democracy. They recruited their endorsed candidate after he had been campaigning for Lieutenant Governor for a year. The DSCC doesn't want the people of North Carolina to choose their next Senator. They would prefer a 4 term Senator from New York to tell you how to vote! It didn't work in 2010 when they did the same thing with the same Democratic candidate. Together, we can make sure they don't get another chance to corrode our progressive coalition! 

• People are rationing their insulin and other life-saving medication because they can't afford it.
• Refusal to expand Medicaid reduces the leverage that lawmakers have to negotiate down drug prices.
• The wealthiest 1% receive the bulk of the benefits of our tax code while hard-working Americans continue to lose leverage with their tax dollars.

"If my devotion to your voice and these platforms for progress are considered radical," she concluded, "then sign me up! It should not be radical to amplify the voices of the people over the powerful. Help us continue to spread the good word of the Erica For Us Campaign by giving what you can. This is the people's campaign, now more than ever!"