Trump's Toxicity Coming Home To Roost For 2020 GOP Candidates

Unless he does something worse than he's already been doing, history won't have much to say about Trump other than he was the worst American president ever, that he gained the office illegitimately and that he presided over a corrupt and failed administration. But there are many with a vested interest-- including the media that recognizes what he is and hates him-- in normalizing him as though he were just another president. Early yesterday, the Amazon Post published Phil Rucker's and Ashley Parker's Trump's Lost Summer, another "nothing-to-see-here" tale of the Trump presidency akin to a surgeon worrying about a hangnail when the patient's gall bladder has just exploded.

They report that the past few months were "a lost summer defined by self-inflicted controversies and squandered opportunities. Trump leveled racist attacks against four congresswomen of color... derided the majority-black city of Baltimore as 'rat and rodent infested.' His anti-immigrant rhetoric was echoed in a missive that authorities believe a mass shooting suspect posted. His visits to Dayton, Ohio, and El Paso after the gun massacres in those cities served to divide rather than heal. Trump’s economy also began to falter, with the markets ping-ponging based on the president’s erratic behavior. His trade war with China grew more acrimonious. His whipsaw diplomacy at the Group of Seven summit left allies uncertain about American leadership. The president returned from his visit to France in a sour mood, frustrated by what he felt was unfairly negative news coverage of his trip." And they assert that "the two months between Independence Day and Labor Day offered a fresh and vivid portrait of the president as seen by Trump’s critics-- incompetent, indecisive, intolerant and ineffective." OK, accurate but... what about the spring and before that, the winter and before that the autumn?

Trump has been "incompetent, indecisive, intolerant and ineffective" at all times and regardless of season because Donald Trump is incompetent, indecisive, intolerant and ineffective... and worse. "[M]any of the president’s advisers and outside allies bemoan what they consider to be a period of missed opportunity and self-sabotage." That period began the day he moved into the White House. And no, "in the final lull before the 2020 campaign starts to intensify this fall," Trump could NOT "have worked strategically to solidify his position and broaden his appeal." That isn't something he is capable of and if he did any of that, he wouldn't be Trump. And, yes, "his words and actions this summer served to further divide the country and to harden public opinion about the ever-polarizing president."

Die Hard Republicans by Nancy Ohanian

Republican strategist Alex Castellanos noted that "You can’t fall off the floor. Everybody knows who Donald Trump is. Before he was elected, we knew he grabbed women by the p-word and he was this political hand grenade. If you hate Trump, you hate Trump; if you love Trump, you love Trump.” Inside and outside the White House, Trumpists describe a Regime "in which the president has crashed through the remaining guard rails. The chief of staff is still in an 'acting' role and jobs that multiple aides once handled are now being filled by fewer staffers, and the president and his team failed to drive a sustained message or capitalize on what they view as winnable fights on the economy and immigration. A Republican operative in frequent touch with the White House described the mood from the 'staff guys and gals' as one of weariness. 'Exhaustion, fatigue, wake us when it’s over,' said the operative, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to summarize the sentiment of private conversations. 'They’re just tired.'" So is the American public.

“Trump squandered a summer of opportunity to enhance his reelection campaign,” Dan Eberhart, a Republican donor and chief executive of Canary, a drilling services company, wrote in an email. “While Democrats are divided and focused on their own primary, President Trump could have focused on solving the trade war, a genuine infrastructure plan or a decisive foreign policy victory. Instead, he fanned the flames of the trade war, attacked Baltimore, ‘the squad’ and the Federal Reserve, and failed to add a cornerstone achievement to his 2020 election credentials.”

Eberhart concluded: “As a Republican, all you can do is hope it doesn’t end in a wreck.”

But others point out that by virtue of his unconventional style, Trump is capable of seizing the media spotlight whenever he chooses, regardless of whether Congress is in session. The president, they added, is someone who thrives amid havoc and this summer did not feel demonstrably different from other periods of his presidency.

“Normally a president’s numbers go up in August because they have the playing field to themselves and you don’t have all these little Chihuahuas nipping at your heels from Congress, but Trump has always marched to his own tune,” said Scott Reed, senior political strategist at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce.

It is unclear whether Trump will pay a political price for his summertime controversies. An Amazon Post average of seven nationally representative polls in August finds Trump’s approval rating at 41 percent, down slightly from a June average of 43 percent in those same polls.

Joseph Goebbels by Nancy Ohanian

I asked several top tier congressional candidates what a Trump rally-- with their opponent on stage with him would do for their campaigns. The best of the Georgia Democrats running for the Perdue seat, Teresa Tomlinson, told me that "Trump is under water in Georgia. Some polls have him at 37-43% approval. One had him at 49% approval, 45% disapproval. In sum, Trump's visit just re-entrenches his base and offends swing voters. In other words, I think it's fine. Have him come on down. It allows me to draw the distinction between government that harms the people through Tariff wars, inept administration of government like with Hurricane Michael relief, faux conservatism that has ballooned our budget deficit to $1 trillion and keeps our rural areas without healthcare. I like that contrast. I know how to govern well and have a record to prove it. They can't compete with that. The people of Georgia have been gut-punched by Trump and his Republican ilk, and I intend to point that out every day." 

The best of the Colorado Senate candidates, Andrew Romanoff came right to the point about a Trump rally in his state: "It helps. Glad to have Cory pictured with him."

Although Democratic Party boss Chuck Schumer has an anointed candidate for the Iowa Senate seat, there's an actual progressive running for that seat as well, Michael Franken. Yesterday, Michael told me that his "sense is Joni would suffer with a newfound closeness with Trump. In Iowa, she has repeatedly stated how she has pushed back on Trump’s unhelpful tendencies. So her hand-clasping with the Donald would trump her wish to cultivate a contrary voice to the Prez’s trade fiasco, in particular."

New Mexico Secretary of State, Maggie Toulouse Oliver, the progressive candidate for the state's open Senate seat, probably doesn't have much to worry about in terms of Trump barnstorming in her state. "New Mexico," she reminded us, "is not Trump territory. New Mexicans are united against Trump, his policies and his administration. Any effort by Trump to make inroads here will only further solidify our state’s commitment to electing a Democratic president." And, a progressive Democratic U.S. senator.

Trump bombed in California last cycle, although he did win some of the rural parts of the state-- not CA-16 though, where progressive Democrat Kim Williams is taking on Republican-lite Blue Dog Jim Costa. The voters there only gave Trump 36.4% of the vote. Fresno and Merced counties, where most of the votes come from, went for Hillary and only red Madera County gave Trump a win. This cycle, with Trump on the top of the ticket, Williams has very intention of sweeping all three counties-- and she hopes Trump will visit the district. "It would absolutely help my campaign," she told us. "This district has felt Trump's rhetoric and policies in a profoundly negative way, which is why we are able to re-register so many Republicans as Democrats. If Trump did come to town, the counter protest would easily outsize his rally, and I'd be waiting in the wings with a thousand voter registration forms."

Jon Hoadley is the progressive state Rep. running for Congress against Trump enabler Fred Upton in Michigan's 6th district. Upton and Trump on stage together would help his campaign immensely and Upton isn't stupid enough to ever allow himself to be photographed with Trump. "If President Trump came to Southwest Michigan," Hoadley told us, "it would just be a reminder to folks of all backgrounds of how his policies continue to divide our country, fail our farmers, shortchange our workers, and endanger our environment. People are hungry for new leadership. It's time for change."

Eva Putzova, running for Congress against Blue Dog (and ex-Republican) Tom O'Halleran in AZ-0, feels certain that Trump's certain presence in Arizona is going to help her win the general election. "Trump is so disliked among Democrats and many independents in my district, that his presence would most likely energize them into greater support for my campaign. The policy differences between myself and Trump are far greater than between Trump and the incumbent congressman, who votes with the President almost 40 percent of the time. But frankly, his presence would be a distraction just like his Tweets and all of us-- voters, activists, and candidates-- have more important things to spend our energy on than bonding over our collective disapproval of his presidency."

Kara Eastman, a progressive candidate for the House in a swing district based in Omaha, had a different perspective: "Trump is under water in Nebraska for the first time since the election. My concern with his coming here has less to do with my campaign, and more to do with the harm that his rallies do to Americans and America in general. He tends to incite violence and hate speech. We need to hold events that make our community safer and stronger-- not more divided and fearful."