Will The Anti-Red Wave Continue To Grow?

Longtime Harlem Congressman Charlie Rangel (retired) was on the air with John Catsimatidis yesterday and he explained what Trump, a former campaign contributor of his, has done to the political system. "It is a terrible thing because it doesn’t give Americans an opportunity to vote on the issues. It’s either you’re for Trump or against Trump... The worst that we have in America has joined up with Trump and good Republicans have nowhere to go."

That's been manifesting itself in special elections all year and now, very strongly, in the polls. Take Iowa, for example. Up for re-election are the state's 4 members of Congress (3 Republicans and one Democrat) and the state's Republican governor, Kim Reynolds. A poll for the Des Moines Register released Sunday shows that Democrat Fred Hubbell is beating incumbent Kim Reynolds 43-41% in a state Trump won by ten points in 2016. The worst news for Republicans is that "Among independent voters, who represent the largest share of registered voters in the state, Hubbell leads Reynolds 40 percent to 34 percent. Twelve percent say they support Porter, and 14 percent are unsure... Hubbell also leads among Iowans who say they did not vote in the 2014 midterm election, by 41 percent to Reynolds’ 31 percent. Selzer said that could be an indication he’s drawing support beyond the traditional Democratic base, from people who are not regular midterm voters." As for the makeup of the state's congressional delegation, it may well go from 3 Republicans and 1 Democrat to 3 Democrats and 1 Republican or if everything keeps going they way they have... 4 Democrats and no Republicans! (Contribute to J.D. Scholten's campaign for the Steve King seat here.)

We find a similar story just north of Iowa in Minnesota, where early voting has already begun and where Republicans had been making gains in recent years. Trump seems to have brought that trend to a screeching halt. As J. Patrick Coolican wrote ominously for the StarTribune over the weekend, "because politics has become so nationalized, an unpopular president portends bad things for his party."

Trump’s approval rating has dropped from 45 percent to 39 percent, while 56 percent disapprove of his handling of the job, according to our recent Minnesota Poll, which was conducted by Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy in partnership with MPR News. The pollster conducted 800 interviews, with a margin of sampling error of 3.5 percentage points.

The question is whether Minnesota voters who disapprove of Trump will take out their frustrations on Republican candidates-- yes, it may seem strange, but voters often choose legislative candidates based on how they feel about the president.

Perhaps most surprising and most troubling for the GOP: Trump’s approval rating in southern Minnesota is just 40 percent, which belies the conventional wisdom that Trump is popular in greater Minnesota.

In other results, Democrats are safely ahead of Republicans in nearly every major statewide race. U.S. Rep. Tim Walz leads Jeff Johnson by 9 points in the governor’s race, U.S. Sen. Amy Klobuchar is up big over Jim Newberger, and U.S. Sen. Tina Smith leads state Sen. Karin Housley by 7 points.

How will this play out in House races? Let's look at the 8 seats. The Republicans thought they had a slam-dunk to take Democrat Tim Walz's open seat in a district Trump won 53.3% to 38.4%. Their candidate, Jim Hagedorn, hasn't been able to make the sale and it's now a dead-heat in an R+5 district. If the wave is strong enough, Dan Feehan will be sworn in as MN-01 congressman in January, not Hagedorn. In MN-02 Angie Craig (D) is clobbering Republican incumbent Jason Lewis.

Same in the 3rd district, where Dean Phillips is beating Republican incumbent Erik Paulsen by an even greater margin! These two Twin Cities suburban seats are becoming an elephant's graveyard this cycle, entirely because of voter antipathy towards Trump. Phillips and Craig are both weak candidates who will be swept into Congress because of a Trump-inspired anti-red wave.

Democrats have no viable opponents in MN-04 (Betty McCollum), MN-05 (Ilhan Omar) and MN-07 (Collin Peterson-- a district Trump won by THIRTY points!) and the Republicans have no viable opponents in MN-06 (Tom Emmer). So that leaves MN-08, another one the NRCC thought was an easy pick-up. Rick Nolan is retiring. The PVI is R+4 and Trump beat Hillary 54.2% to 38.6%. But despite Republican Pete Stauber spending 3 times more money that Democrat Joe Radinovich, this is another dead heat race that will depend on the size and strength of the wave on election day.

Before we get down into the nitty gritty of how this is playing out on the national stage, one more bit of background, this from Jonathan Martin at the NY Times over the weekend: Kavanaugh Was Supposed To Be A Midterm Boon For the GOP. Not Anymore. Martin reported that "With Judge Kavanaugh and his accuser, Christine Blasey Ford, tentatively scheduled to testify this week before the Senate Judiciary Committee, and many women furious over President Trump’s attacks on Dr. Blasey, a Supreme Court nomination that was once seen as a political winner in many conservative-leaning states could, instead, rouse female voters and independents who otherwise may have cared little about the confirmation fight... Suburban women are pivotal in this year’s campaign and many of them were already tilting toward Democrats because of their contempt for President Trump. If Republicans are too harsh in their questioning of Dr. Blasey, they risk inviting an even greater backlash at the ballot box in an election where their House majority is in peril and their one-vote Senate majority is teetering."

OK, and that takes us right to the new poll from NBC News and the Wall Street Journal. To begin with, 52% of registered voters disapprove of the job Trump is doing (45% strongly). 44% approve (29% strongly). The Republican Party is viewed negatively by 44% of likely voters and 32% positively, as opposed to the Democratic Party, which is viewed negatively and positively by 38% of registered voters.

Kavanaugh is viewed positively by 27% and negatively by 30%.

And when asked which party they would prefer in control of Congress, 52% say the Democrats and 40% say the Republicans.

Most voters-- and most independent voters-- want their vote to send a signal that they want to see a Democratic Congress as a check on and balance for Trump.

Sixty-five percent of registered Democrats say they’re very interested in the midterms-- registering either a “9” or “10” on a 10-point scale-- compared with 61 percent of Republicans who say the same thing.

That narrow 4-point advantage for Democrats is down from their leads of 11 points in August (63 percent to 52 percent) and 16 points in July (65 percent to 49 percent).

The groups with the highest level of interest in the election: Seniors (73 percent register either a “9” or “10), Democrats (65 percent), whites (61 percent), Republicans (61 percent) and African Americans (53 percent).

The groups with the lowest level of interest: Independents (37 percent) and those ages 18-34 (35 percent).

Worrying: younger voters are not enthusiastic about voting, nor are independents, two groups many Democratic candidates have been counting on to get them over the finish line, especially in red districts. Democratic candidates have to ask themselves what will help more in the final weeks of campaigning-- appealing to seniors or trying to enthuse younger voters. Where they allocate scarce resources could determine the results in November.