The Anti-Red Wave

2010 was an anti-blue wave, just as 2018 is shaping up to be an anti-red wave. No doubt a failed clown like Ben Ray Lujan will try to "modestly" take credit for the great Democratic wins in November, regardless of the indisputable fact that there would be more wins if he was put into hibernation until November 9. The Republican who was in his place in 2010 was Pete Sessions, the corrupt and sleazy NRCC chairman from Texas. Yesterday, Politico mentioned 2 things: a- he's in trouble electorally this year (true) and b- he was the architect and engineer of 2010 (absurd). Alex Isenstadt was making the point that Sessions "is confronting a treacherous political landscape back at home-- a well-funded Democratic opponent with a boffo résumé, a rapidly diversifying and more liberal district, and, perhaps most critically, a constituency of well-educated and upper-income suburban voters who increasingly are turning on the president. His predicament underscores the grave danger confronting Republicans this fall. As the party braces for an electoral drubbing that threatens to wipe out the majority they won eight years ago, the list of incumbents under duress is growing ever longer-- and even powerful lawmakers like Sessions, a sharp-elbowed tactician who hasn’t faced a serious reelection contest in over a decade, are suddenly trying to survive a Trump-fueled bloodbath. In Texas alone, Democrats are targeting three Republican incumbents who’ve been in office for over a decade." [You can find more Democrats who won their primary races here, but who the DCCC refuses to help, primarily because they are progressives.]

[Sessions] pointedly declined to say whether he’d campaign as an ally of the president, who narrowly lost Sessions’ North Dallas district in 2016. And he appeared to concede that some in the business-friendly area-- which is home to a number of prominent country club-style Republicans, including former President George W. Bush-- have soured on the bombastic commander in chief.

...[Colin] Allred outlined how he intends to defeat the entrenched incumbent. He said Sessions has lost touch with his fast-changing district and is more interested in pursuing his leadership ambitions and advancing his party’s political interests.

But Allred hinted at another strategy: Winning over traditional Republicans who felt disillusioned with the president.

“I think if you are a George W. Bush Republican, you don’t see yourself in this version of the Republican Party led by Donald Trump,” said Allred, who was accompanied by his dog Scarlet, a Rhodesian Ridgeback.

Yeah... not the kind of Democrat Blue America expects much from-- other than heartbreak-- in the coming session of Congress because he'll be trying to hold onto that seat by behaving like (voting like) a Republican but will be swept out of office in 2022, in the anti-blue wave Ben Ray Lujan and Nancy Pelosi are engineering and being the architects of now.

Did you contribute to Doug Jones' campaign? It's good he beat the GOP child rapist, of course, but... on crucial roll calls, he's voted with the GOP over half the time. The half-dozen worst Senate Democrats-- from bad to worst:

Yesterday Axios had SurveyMonkey do another poll for them, looking alt 5 specific groups and how Trump approval/disapproval ratings are likely to impact the midterms. Alexei McCammond wrote that "The most important group to watch will be the #NeverHillary independents-- a group that narrowly disapproves of Trump's performance, according to a new Axios-SurveyMonkey poll. It's also not a good sign for Republicans that Trump's disapproval ratings are high among suburban white women. The other subgroups lean pretty much the way you'd expect.

#NeverHillary Independents are closely split on their views of Trump, and in 2016 they split three ways: 37% didn't vote at all, 33% picked Trump and 23% went for a third party candidate. The big question in 2018 is whether their disapproval of Trump will lead them to vote for a Democrat.

Suburban white women are a critical swing voter group. Nearly half strongly disapprove of Trump, but they're almost evenly divided between Democrats (44%) and Republicans (42%). They are mostly moderate or conservative in their views, but they care a lot about health care and immigration-- two of the biggest issues that are likely to drive Democrats to the polls.

Rural Americans are overwhelmingly white (76%), and many love Trump (38% strongly approve). They care most about jobs and the economy, but if Republicans want their help, they'll have to address the concerns of the 42% who disapprove of Trump.

African-American women are often called the backbone of the Democratic Party, and not surprisingly, they overwhelmingly disapprove of President Trump. Two out of three voted for Hillary Clinton in 2016. But if Democrats want their vote in 2018, the party will need to invest in the issues they care about.

Millennials (18-34) don't like Trump, and they are more likely to mention education and the environment over issues like health care and immigration. In 2016, 31% voted for Clinton and 19% voted for Trump, but 39% stayed home. If Democrats want to win them over, they'll need to focus on voter registration-- because millennials are the least likely group to report being registered to vote.