Thursday, June 01, 2017

Michiganders Are Sick Of Trump, But How Many Republicans Will Lose Their Seats In 2018?


Morning Consult's new poll brings more bad news for Señor Trumpanzee after his disastrous trip abroad. More voters want Congress to impeach him. Last week, their poll showed only 38% want him impeached. In just one week, that's risen to 43%. So far, though "much of the support for impeaching Trump comes from political considerations, the poll shows-- not a belief that Trump is actually guilty of impeachable offenses, like treason, bribery or obstructing justice." It's only a matter of time before the evidence is there to show some undeniable combination of treason, bribery and obstruction of justice.

The poll shows TrumpCare is still in the toilet in the minds of Americans-- 47% disapproving and 38% approving. The 33% who disapprove of the "strongly" far outpaces the 14% of imbeciles who approve strongly. 32%-- the hardcore Trumpists, most of whom don't have functioning minds because of prescription drug addiction-- think TrumpCare will make the health care system batter and 47% say TrumpCare would make the health care system worse.

So how's that playing out in states as we head inexorably towards the 2018 midterms? Let's look at Michigan, a blue state which had last voted for the Republican presidential ticket in 1988 when George W.H. Bush beat Michael Dukakis. After that Clinton won both times, Gore won, Kerry won and Obama beat McCain 57.43% to 40.96% and then beat Romney (hometown boy) 54.21% to 44.71%. And then along came the wrong Democratic candidate and Trump won the state 2,277,914 (47.60%) to 2,264,807 (47.33%). Hillary never quite understood why Bernie beat her in so much of the state-- 598,943 (49.68%) to 581,775 (48.26%), never having had to worry about it since Wasserman Schultz fixed the process to award Clinton 73 delegates to Bernie's 67. (In way of comparison, Bernie's 598,943 votes on March 8 stacked up nicely against Señor Trumpanzee's 483,753.) Michigan has 83 counties. Hillary won 10 and Bernie won 73... but the DNC had the state in the bag for Hillary anyway.

Come election day, none of the DCCC's crap candidates who thought they could coast to victory on Hillary's coattails won. Pitifully-- but par for the course for the DCCC-- every single one of them was defeated. Crap candidates usually are. The DCCC spent heavily on a drunken asshole way up north, Blue Dog Lon Johnson, and he was defeated in the MI-01 open seat unable to even win 40% of the vote. But he has a well-connected wife so... the DCCC may well wind up backing him again in 2018. The Democrat who did the best against a Republican anywhere in the state was Anil Kumar in MI-11, who took 40.2% of the vote, with the DCCC talking down his race and urging donors to not waste their money on him. With nothing from the DCCC but bad vibes, Kumar sill managed to beat all their wretched Republican-lite congressional candidates and raise $1,116,535, almost as much as incumbent Dave Trott.

Yesterday the Detroit Free Press reported on a new statewide poll showing Trump's job approval cratering in Michigan.
The survey of 600 likely Michigan voters done May 20-24 by EPIC-MRA of Lansing also indicates that 56% of  Michiganders  view former President Barack Obama favorably while Trump, who won Michigan last November, received a favorable rating of 37% from those polled.

The poll shows that, since the last poll by EPIC-MRA in February, Trump’s job approval rating-- which is different from his favorability score-- has fallen substantially.

Sixty-one percent of those surveyed gave Trump a negative job rating-- up five percentage points from February. That matched the increase from 50% to 55% of Michiganders who believe the direction of the country has taken a “wrong turn,” according to the poll.

The percentage of Michiganders giving Trump positive job ratings fell from 18% to 12% as  the number of respondents saying the U.S. is headed in the “right direction” dropped from 35% to 31%. EPIC-MRA,  which does polling for the Free Press, selects a demographically random sample of respondents from across the state for its surveys.
The pollster told the Free Press that he's "beginning to see some slippage among Republicans for (Trump’s) performance. If he comes to a point where his numbers slip even further among Republicans, you’re going to see more and more legislators jump ship from him." Every single one of the 9 House Republicans from Michigan voted for the extremely unpopular TrumpCare bill. The DCCC, which has virtually no credibility among Michigan Democrats, has announced they're targeting 5 Republican incumbents in 2018: Jack Bergman (MI-01), Fred Upton (MI-06), Tim Walberg (MI-07), Mike Bishop (MI-08), Dave Trott (MI-11).

During a town hall meeting on Friday, Walberg was happy to change the subject from TrumpCare and told his constituents not to worry about Trump dumping the Paris Climate Accord. I believe there’s been climate change since the beginning of time… I believe there are cycles. Do I think man has some impact? Yeah, of course. Can man change the entire universe? No. As a Christian, I believe that there is a creator in God who is much bigger than us. And I’m confident that, if there’s a real problem, he can take care of it."

God: "You shall not defile the land in which you live" (Numbers 35:33-34)

I spoke with one of the most respected political operatives in Michigan this morning. He told me it doesn't matter who the DCCC claims to be targeting at this point in the cycle. "I'd be surprised if they help finance even two of those races," he said after I read him the list. "Trott should be worried. Oakland County went pretty strongly for Clinton and Trump came closer to losing his district than any other Republican-held district in the state." [The score was Trump 49.7, Clinton 45.3%] If they run strong candidates with their heads on straight they could beat Upton and Bishop too. Trump didn't do well in either district." [Trump beat Clinton 51.3-42.9% in Upton's district and 50.6-43.9% in Bishop's district.] But they're go get behind a couple of their Republican-lite candidates and blow the chance for winning, You're writing all the time that's that what they always do; it's true. Michigan should kick them out of the state. They do more harm than good to the party here."

Yesterday's Detroit News carried a piece by Melissa Burke about how Upton's role in the passage of TrumpCare is hurting him back home. There's some talk that he may run against --and the DSCC even ran a preemptive 6 second online ad against him, but if, as is likely, he decides to run for reelection, whichever Democrat rans against him will be able to use his vote-- in committee and on the floor-- for TrumpCare, and his key role in persuading mainstream Republicans to back the radical right plan.
Upton came out against the GOP health care bill in the first week of May. The 64-year-old lawmaker wasn’t comfortable with an amendment allowing states to seek a federal waiver for some requirements of the Affordable Care Act, including the rule that insurers may not set premiums based on an individual’s current and past “health status.”

That means that, in states with waivers, insurers could hike premiums for people with underlying conditions who had a lapse in coverage. Gov. Rick Snyder has said Michigan wouldn’t seek a waiver.

In a 20-minute call with Upton, the president raised his voice and cursed, but Upton said he didn’t bend. He explained his concerns, reading back something the president had said on TV days earlier promising the GOP bill would be as strong on protecting those with pre-existing conditions as Obamacare.

“He was a little gruff, to say the least. I was a little gruff back,” Upton recalled. “But I told him, in no uncertain terms, that I could not vote for this bill.”

Hearing no from Upton-- who never endorsed Trump during the campaign-- was one thing, but hearing the same concerns from Missouri GOP Rep. Billy Long was another. Long was the first Republican in Congress to endorse Trump, back in 2015.

Upton and Long met with Trump the next morning. Upton credits Long with ultimately convincing the president to sign off on his amendment-- $8 billion over five years to reduce premiums or out-of-pocket costs for people that face rate hikes in waiver states.

With the amendment, both Upton and Long supported the bill, attracting a few straggling Republicans and giving GOP leadership the final votes they needed to pass the legislation 217-213 on May 4.

Critics said $8 billion over five years was a “pittance.” Democrats said Upton had flip-flopped and sold out to special interests.

“This was a fig leaf, unfortunately, that allowed a few members to vote yes, even though it made no difference in terms of improving the bill,” Stabenow said.

The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office said Wednesday that 23 million more people will be uninsured over 10 years if the bill becomes law. On average, premiums for insurance on the individual market would be lower, in part because the insurance would cover fewer health care costs.

The CBO also expects Upton’s added $8 billion would increase the number of states electing a federal waiver.
Not only is it unclear if Upton will run for the Senate or the MI-06 seat, it's not clear who the Democratic candidate will be. Paul Clements who ran last year and the cycle before hasn't decided if he'll run again or not yet. David Benac, a progressive history professor at Western Michigan University and Eponine Garrod, a 23 year old chemist who works in quality-control testing at Pfizer are running and Matt Longjohn, a progressive physician and public health expert living in Portage, is likely to jump in. The 3 other possible candidates are Rich Eichholtz, a corporate guy from Illinois with a summer house in the district, Cathy Albro from Grand Rapids not far from the district and, worst of all, conservative clown George Franklin, a slimy lobbyist who contributes to both parties, including thousands of dollars over the years to Upton-- $3,000 of which was money he gave Upton to spend against Clements. He's exactly the kind of garbage candidate the DCCC is probably looking for.

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At 5:20 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

How many? NONE! The incompetent and corrupt Democrats will find ways to lose the seats no matter what.


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