Saturday, June 17, 2017

How Hated Is TrumpCare? Hated Enough To Destroy The GOP House Majority... By A Lot


There were 9 states where Trump had landslide victories over Clinton, mostly poorly educated, backward states with small populations.
Wyoming- 70.1% to 22.5%
West Virginia- 68.7% to 26.5%
Oklahoma- 65.3% to 28.9%
North Dakota- 64.1% to 27.8%
Alabama- 62.9% to 34.6%
Kentucky- 62.5% to 32.7%
South Dakota- 61.5% to 31.7%
Tennessee- 61.1% to 34.9%
Arkansas- 60.4% to 33.8%
But not even in these states is their majority support for TrumpCare. Even in the state where it is viewed most sympathetically, Oklahoma, the people who don’t like it (45%) significantly outnumber the people who do (38%). And 38% is the high-water mark. In 3 major Trump states with large rural ignorant populations and incredible numbers of people strung out on prescription drugs—West Virginia, Arkansas and Tennessee— only 40% oppose TrumpCare but, respectively, only 36%, 32% and 35% support Congress passing it. And that’s where Trump is strongest politically. Take states where Trump won narrowly and the picture is much starker. Look at these half dozen swing states Trump won narrowly:
Wisconsin- 54% oppose, 29% support
Michigan- 49% oppose, 27% support
Pennsylvania- 49% oppose, 30% support
Florida- 48% oppose, 35% support
Ohio- 51% oppose, 29% support
Iowa- 53% oppose, 27% support
But look at a state like Massachusetts, highly educated, healthy, prosperous… Trump only took 33.5% of the vote there but TrumpCare support is even lower—22% with 59% opposed. A couple of days ago Christopher Warshaw did a piece in the NY Times, GOP Senators Might Not Realize It, but Not One State Supports the A.H.C.A., asserting that TrumpCare “is the most unpopular piece of major legislation Congress has considered in decades— even more unloved than TARP (the bailout), and much more unpopular than the Affordable Care Act, also known as Obamacare.” Nationally, approval for TrumpCare is 29%.
Will Republican senators vote yes on a bill this unpopular? To hang on to their jobs, senators have to keep only voters in their own states happy, not the whole nation. Perhaps red-state senators, or even some senators in swing states, might think their states are friendlier to the bill than the nation as a whole.

Our research indicates that is not the case. To get a sense of support by state, we combined recent polls to estimate support for the A.H.C.A. in every senator’s home state. Our estimates indicate that not one state favors it.

…We found that Republicans have produced a rare unity among red and blue states: opposition to the A.H.C.A.

For example, even in the most supportive state, deep-red Oklahoma, we estimate that only about 38 percent of voters appear to support the law versus 45 percent who oppose. (Another 17 percent of Oklahomans say they have no opinion.) Across all the states that voted for President Trump last year, we estimate that support for the A.H.C.A. is rarely over 35 percent. A majority of Republican senators currently represent states where less than a third of the public supports the A.H.C.A. By comparison, President Trump received 33 percent of the vote in Massachusetts.

How many senators might lose their seats as a result of supporting the bill? A recent study found that Democrats who supported Obamacare lost about six percentage points in the vote in 2010— a dangerous omen for the 15 sitting Republican senators who won their most recent elections by less than that number. For example, if the A.H.C.A. costs Republicans as much support as Obamacare cost Democrats, senators like Jeff Flake of Arizona and Dean Heller of Nevada might be in danger of losing their seats. We estimate that only 28 percent of the public in Nevada supports the A.H.C.A., while only 31 percent of Arizonans support it.

With this said, it’s hard to know just how politically damaging supporting the A.H.C.A. would be. On the one hand, no major bill this unpopular has passed in decades, but some voters might forget about the A.H.C.A., or change their opinions, by the time some senators face re-election.

But the picture of public support is bleak in the home states of many reported G.O.P. swing votes on the bill. In Susan Collins’s Maine, Lisa Murkowski’s Alaska, Mr. Flake and John McCain’s Arizona, Cory Gardner’s Colorado, Bill Cassidy’s Louisiana, Rob Portman’s Ohio, Lindsey Graham’s South Carolina and Mr. Heller’s Nevada, we estimate that public support is under a third, and clear pluralities oppose.

With A.H.C.A. support in the subbasement, Republican senators have indicated they hope to make changes to the law. Although we can’t be sure exactly what they will change or how it might influence public support, the YouGov data indicate that Republicans in the House had little success softening the public’s opposition with their own modifications. In fact, support for the A.H.C.A. was even lower in the three YouGov polls after the House made its changes than in the two YouGov polls conducted before it.

Cynics might worry that senators care too much about their donors or primary voters to pay heed to general public opposition in their states. But evidence shows that when politicians learn that a majority of their constituents oppose a bill, many change their votes as a result. In one study, academics randomly assigned some legislators to receive information on public opinion in their districts, and found that legislators were much more likely to vote along with constituency opinion when they were informed of it.

But critics of the bill shouldn’t assume Republican senators know where their states stand. Research shows that politicians are surprisingly poor at estimating public opinion in their districts and states, Republicans in particular. G.O.P. politicians tend to overestimate support for conservative health care views by about 20 percentage points— meaning Senate Republicans might see their states as just barely supporting the A.H.C.A. Our analysis indicates this view would be mistaken.
There is no such breakdown for congressional districts, but it’s safe to estimate that if support for GOP candidates drops by 5% from Trump’s win in 2016— and that’s half the loss in support experienced in the Kansas special election— a generic Democrat (so, not necessarily some crap candidate the DCCC digs up and foists on the voters) would beat 72 incumbent Republicans. These— in theory— are the Republican incumbents who would be out trolling K Street looking for lobbyist jobs if the fall-off is just 5%:
Martha McSally (AZ)
David Schweikert (AZ)
Tom McClintock (CA)
Paul Cook (CA)
Jeff Denham (CA)
David Valadao (CA)
Devin Nunes (CA)
Steve Knight (CA)
Ed Royce (CA)
Mimi Walters (CA)
Dana Rohrabacher (CA)
Darrell Issa (CA)
Duncan Hunter (CA)
Mike Coffman (CO)
Dennis Ross (FL)
Brian Mast (FL)
Mario Diaz-Balart (FL)
Carlos Curbelo (FL)
Rob Woodall (GA)
Rod Blum (IA)
David Young (IA)
Peter Roskam (IL)
Rodney Davis (IL)
Randy Hultgren (IL)
Kevin Yoder (KS)
Andy Barr (KY)
Bruce Poliquin (ME)
Justin Amash (MI)
Fred Upton (MI)
Mike Bishop (MI)
Dave Trott (MI)
Jason Lewis (MN)
Erik Paulsen (MN)
Ann Wagner (MO)
George Holding (NC)
Robert Pittengert (NC)
Ted Budd (NC)
Don Bacon (NE)
Frank LoBiondo (NJ)
Tom MacArthur (NJ)
Leonard Lance (NJ)
Rodney Frelinghuysen (NJ)
Steve Pearce (NM)
Mark Amodei (NV)
Peter King (NY)
Dan Donovan (NY)
John Faso (NY)
Tom Reed (NY)
John Katko (NY)
Steve Chabot (OH)
Mike Turner (OH)
Steve Russell (OK)
Ryan Costello (PA)
Pat Meehan (PA)
Brian Fitzpatrick (PA)
Charlie Dent (PA)
Lloyd Smucker (PA)
Mark Sanford (SC)
Ted Poe (TX)
John Culberson (TX)
Mike McCaul (TX)
Lamar Smith (TX)
Pete Olson (TX)
Will Hurd (TX)
Kenny Marchant (TX)
Pete Sessions (TX)
Scott Taylor (VA)
Tom Garrett (VA)
Dave Brat (VA)
Barbara Comstock (VA)
Jaime Herrera Beutler (WA)
David Reichert (WA)
Paul Ryan (WI)
Now imagine the losses if the fall off is the same as it was in KS-04, 10 points. Even the DCCC couldn’t lose a cycle like that! It would be a rout-- a testament to the toxicity of both Señor Trumpanzee and House Speaker Paul Ryan, who wouldn't be around the be chastised by his colleagues, since he would be in line to lose his own seat as well.

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At 6:37 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

As disliked as drumpfdeath is, it is NOT their "single issue" about which the regressive racist Nazi right will vote. That issue is hate and those who hate will never vote for a democrat or a democrap over their mirror-image rep/sen unless someone else who hates better emerges on the far right.
Next up in the issue totem pole is fear -- mostly of islam and a-rab tairrists but also of meskins takin' our jobs picking lettuce.
Next up would be greed that can take many forms, but most often it's promises of a tax cut that will save the average dumbfucktard a few bucks per year while lathering millions onto billionaires.
Next up would prolly be guns. More guns. Guns for everyone. Guns in every pocket just in case you run into a black person or a tairrist or, shudder, a tranny.

The health care bill won't break into the top 5 even if it kills some white grannys because every white racist knows that it'll kill a lot more black FAMILIES, so a few dead whites is the price you have to pay sometimes.

Drumpfdeath, or whatever the senate pukes up, will NOT be a significant factor in 17 months. All the domestic killing that will be done by Rs will be dwarfed in importance when our next war is started. NK or Iran or somewhere will be invaded to help the Rs get re-elected and the media will be a huge help, just like in 2001 and since.

At 10:19 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Replace the DNC with real, non-corporatist Democrats, and I might dare to have hope. Otherwise, you just wasted a lot of column inches.

At 2:07 PM, Anonymous Hone said...

The Dems need to step it up with being progressive, as shown by Corbyn's surprising turnout. Matt Taibbi says it in his new article for the Rolling Stone - there is no center. It is the 1% vs. the rest of us. Still, too many Americans are not seeing the big picture. They are focused on health insurance, a critical personal emphasis. While understandable, there are are other HUGE issues also at stake that everyone should care deeply about.

It is very hard for me to say but the passing of this horrendous new health care bill, if it occurs, may wake people up enough to actually vote these assholes out. The suffering though will be just terrible.

At 2:34 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Don't get your hopes up, friend Hone. As long as people Dance With The Stars and Keep Up With The Kardashians, they are anaesthetized against the realities of life. IF such realities as you cite were "real", would they not have TV shows?

At 3:10 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Hone, you are correct... partially. The one tenth of one percent has been at war with the 99.9% for 85 years (since FDR was elected and started his hated "New Deal"). And they've been winning, bigly, for 37 years and counting. Not enough room to dissect all the ways and causes... but to distill it, it's because voters are sub-sentient and the only two parties (google: quantum chromodynamics only two colors red blue nothing else exists) are both owned and operated by the .1% in their quest to steal it all.

But there is also a barely suppressed civil war going on. It's red vs. blue (see the google thing above); hate vs. tolerance; white vs. nonwhite (wait, if there is only blue and red, how can there be white?? Might be an entropy consequence in chromodynamics. I wish Feynman were alive to figger this out.); greed vs. altruism; stupider vs. stupidest...

The latter means that the former cannot and will never be "voted out". Red has gamed the system such that they can never be "voted out", not that voters ever would peek out of their own assholes to see what horrors they've created and keep insisting on.

As history shows us, when you force enough misery upon the masses, you get violent revolution. The rich SHALL end up with their ugly heads on pikes somewhere. But there are always those "Nazi party members, Bathists, etc." who need to be culled in order for change to occur. Otherwise you end up with Afghanistan where, just as soon as Russia and the US run out of patience and money, the Taliban return to ratfuck the poor hapless Afghans (a lot of whom really WANT the Taliban to return and ratfuck them).

And you know what I mean by culled. You can't FIX stupid, and stupid never FIXES itself.


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