Thursday, October 23, 2008

Things We Learned Today


Are new registrations enough to put Kleeb over the top?

Obama is winning Montana, a state that has only voted for two Democrats in presidential elections since helping elect Eisenhower. The latest poll gives him 44% over McCain's 40%, primarily because independents, who are sick of McCain's negative campaign tactics, are breaking Obama's way bigtime

Nebraska is even redder. Although they did vote for LBJ against Goldwater, he was the only Democrat they have voted for in presidential elections since the 1930s! Not that I'm predicting that they're going to go for Obama. They're not. But... voter registration figures released today are startling, to say the least. Republicans now make up less than half the electorate in that state. And although that has a lot to do with independents, in the last year Nebraska Democrats have a 23.5 to 1 advantage in net new registrations. 31,693 new Democrats registered; 1,348 newly minted Republicans.

We also learned that lagging indicator Cook is now projecting a win for another Blue America candidate: Martin Henirich (NM-01). The other Blue America candidates he has already suggested start looking for apartments or houses in the DC area are Alan Grayson (FL-08), Gary Peters (MI-09), Eric Massa (NY-29), Larry Kissell (NC-08), and Darcy Burner (WA-08). And Vic Wulsin (OH-02) is moving in our direction as well. Remember, Cook is the worst lagging indicator and if he says a race leans Democratic it means that the voting is over and the Democrat won with double digits. His Senate prognostications indicate that 2 of the Blue America candidates are likely to win, Mark Begich (AK) and Jeff Merkley (OR), although he's not counting out either Andrew Rice (OK) or Tom Allen (ME).

Less out-of-touch prognosticators than Cook and the Inside-the-Beltway crowd, see many more seats in play. Today's San Francisco Chronicle is predicting-- or at least acknowledging-- that many GOP seats can no longer be considered "safe."
The state's 53 congressional districts are so gerrymandered that competitive races are extremely rare. There were supposed to be just two hotly contested seats this year-- in the 4th and 11th districts in Northern California.

But the nation's economic crisis, President Bush's unpopularity in California and excitement over Democratic presidential nominee Barack Obama have combined to put more GOP seats in play. Democratic victories in any of them would still amount to surprising upsets, though.

They've added Nick Leibham, Bill Durston, Debbie Cook, Russ Warner and Julie Bornstein to the list of... one (Charlie Brown), with chances of changing red districts blue. Blue America's ActBlue page is open.

We also learned about a great new tool CQPolitics has developed to analyze specifically the degree of Bush rubber stampiness can be attributed to every member of Congress. The worst Republicans (over 90%) were: John Boehner (OH), Roy Blunt (MO), Eric Cantor (VA), David Dreier (CA), Trent Franks (AZ), Doug Lamborn (CO), John Linder (GA), Jim McCrery (LA), Pete Sessions (TX), and William Thornberry (TX). And the worst Democrats were Jim Marshall (GA), Dan Boren (OK), Buddy Cramer (AL), Allen Boyd (FL), Jim Matheson (UT), Lincoln Davis (TN), Bart Gordon (TN), Mike McIntyre (NC), Tim Holden (PA), Charlie Melancon (LA), Gene Taylor (MS), Collin Peterson (MN), John Barrow (GA), Henry Cuellar (TX), Sanford Bishop (GA), and Solomon Ortiz (TX).

And the Democrats who supported Bush least, the real heroes willing to courageously stand up to the slime machine?

Joe Courtney (CT)
Hank Johnson (GA)
Steve Kagen (WI)
Dave Loebsack (IA)
Phil Hare (IL)
John Hall (NY)
Mazie Hirono (HI)
John Yarmuth (KY)
Keith Ellison (MN)
Betty Sutton (OH)
Steve Cohen (TN)
Paul Hodes (NH)
Carol Shea-Porter (NH)
Bruce Braley (IA)
John Sarbanes (MD)
Jackie Speier (CA)
Tim Walz (MN)
Peter Welch (VT)

Meanwhile, hate group, the Family Research Council, is flipping out because the NRCC has stopped funding lunatic fringe Republicans who damage their own re-election chances by making overtly Nazi statements to the media. Michele Bachmann, Marilyn Musgrave and Tom Feeney have all been left on the side of the road for the scavengers. Here's Tony Perkins' declaration of civil war.

And we learned that Scotty McClellan must be black or not a real American-- another Republican insider who's supporting Obama!

Oh, and one more thing-- we learned Opie and the Fonz are Commies:

See more Ron Howard videos at Funny or Die

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