Thursday, March 06, 2008



Survey USA just released these two maps that show which states would vote for Hillary vs McCain (top) and Obama vs McCain if the election were to be held today-- before the much vaulted Republican smear machine kicks into action.

Highlights of course are that Hillary takes Pennsylvania, Florida, Arkansas, New Jersey and West Virginia while Obama doesn't. Similarly Obama wins Washington, Oregon, Nevada, Colorado, North Dakota, Michigan, Iowa, Virginia, New Hampshire and a piece of Nebraska (one of the only states to split electoral votes), which Hillary doesn't. It's based on their current polling but it strains credulity that McCain has a real shot-- regardless of who the candidate is-- in New Jersey, New Hampshire, Washington, Oregon, Iowa, or Michigan.

Either would beat McCain, Obama by a few more votes. You need 270 to win and Obama gets 280 and Hillary 276. Is there wiggle room? You bet, plenty all around. There are toss-up states and states that are only leaning one way or the other as well.

In the Hillary vs McCain match-up, only 6 states (77 electoral votes) are solidly in her corner: Arkansas, DC, Illinois, Massachusetts, New York and Rhode Island. Another 7 states (126 electoral votes) are leaning in her direction: California, Connecticut, Florida, Maine, Maryland, Ohio and Vermont. 14 states (135 electoral votes are toss ups: Delaware, Hawaii, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, New Jersey, New Mexico, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Washington, West Virginia and Wisconsin. McCain has 11 states (65 electoral votes) solidly in his camp: Alaska, Arizona, Georgia, Idaho, Indiana, Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, Utah and Wyoming. There are 13 states (136 electoral votes) leaning his way: Alabama, Colorado, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Texas and Virginia.

Now when the match-up is between Obama and McCain, things change fairly significantly-- and the impact of presidential coattails-- or, in Hillary's case, lack thereof-- becomes apparent.

Suddenly the number of solid states double (with the number of solid electoral votes going from 77 to 163!): California, Connecticut, DC, Hawaii, Illinois, Maine, Maryland, New York, Rhode Island, Vermont, Washington and Wisconsin. 7 more states (66 electoral votes) lean towards Obama: Colorado, Delaware, Massachusetts, Minnesota, New Mexico, Ohio and Oregon. There are fewer toss-up states (12 vs 14) but with more electoral votes at stake (186 vs 135), mostly because Obama puts Texas into play: Alaska, Florida, Michigan, Nebraska, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Jersey, North Carolina, North Dakota, Pennsylvania, Texas, and Virginia. Obama pushes 2 more states (13) into the solid McCain column (with 98 electoral votes): Alabama, Arizona, Arkansas, Georgia, Idaho, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Utah, West Virginia, and Wyoming. Far fewer states (3) lean towards McCain though (25 electoral votes): Indiana, Missouri and Montana. Look at the numbers carefully. Obama is far more in the lead than the close superficial numbers would indicate on first look.

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At 7:34 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

The map is a little fishy..I can't see NJ and Pa going against Obama and Wash and OR against Hillary. Va for Obama?

At 8:04 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

I agree with you, anonymous. And I do think Obama will take Virginia.

At 5:00 AM, Blogger briarhopper said...

I agree that Hillary would take PA, FL, AR, NJ, & WV, and Obama would not--as noted. But I don't think he would take VA or any other Southern state, and he would likely lose any solidly Western state to McCain--who is from the area and isn't seen in a bad light by many Latinos. The red states in which he beat Hillary will almost certainly go to the GOP.
If Obama is the nominee, I look for a Republican landslide.


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