Monday, November 06, 2006

LAST BATCH OF PREDICTIONS-- BASICALLY SAME AS SATURDAY'S

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A flurry of late polls confirms almost totally what I said Saturday. Democrats are likely to win 40 House seats and a bare majority in the Senate. Senate-wise, I expect Cardin to win in Maryland, Klobuchar to slaughter that nincompoop in Minnesota who would have been defeated had he tried to hold onto his House seat, Ford to reap the defeat he earned in Tennessee, McCaskill to squeak by in Missouri (a prime place you can look for massive GOP election fraud), Brown by a mile in Ohio, Webb to gain momentum as Virginian's just give up on Macacawitz and stick a fork in him, Menendez to spank Junior in Jersey, Tester surprising national pundits with a strong win in Montana, Whitehouse over Chafee in Rhode Island, Kyl hangin' on in Arizona, and, of course, the thoroughly odious Santorum handing a weak Democratic challenger a huge victory; most people are just voting against Santorum. That gives the Democrats a one-vote majority... if Lamont wins. If Lamont loses, the Senate will be at the mercy of venal Bush rubber stamper Joe Lieberman.

Where can you look for changes in the House? Everywhere. Let me list, by state, likely Republicans to go down to defeat (and their Democratic replacements).

Arizona: Randy Graf (Gabby Giffords) and J.D. Hayworth (Harry Mitchell); possibly Rick Renzi (Ellen Simon)

California: Dirty Dick Pombo (Jerry McNerney); possibly John Doolittle (Charlie Brown), Mary Bono (David Roth), Brian Bilbray (Francine Busby) and Buck McKeon (Robert Rodriguez)

Colorado: Rick O'Donnell (Ed Perlmutter) and Marilyn Musgrave (Angie Paccione); possibly Doug Lamborn (Jay Fawcett) and Tom Tancredo (Bill Winter)

Florida: Clay Shaw (Ron Klein), and Vern Buchanon (Christine Jennings); possibly Mark Foley (Tim Mahoney) and Tom Feeney (Clint Curtis)

Idaho: possibly Bill Sali (Larry Grant)

Illinois: possibly Dennis Hastert (John Laesch) and Peter Roskam (Tammy Duckworth)

Indiana: Chris Chocola (Joe Donnelly), John Hostelttler (Brad Ellsworth), and Michael Sodrel (Baron Hill); possibly Mark Souder (Tom Hayhurst) and Mike Pence (Barry Welsh)

Iowa: Mike Whalen (Bruce Braley); possibly Jim Leach (Dave Loebsack)

Kansas: possibly Jim Ryun (Nancy Boyda)

Kentucky: Anne Northup (John Yarmuth) and Geoffrey Davis (Ken Lucas); possibly Ron Lewis (Mike Weaver)

Michigan: possibly Thaddeus McCotter (Tony Trupiano), Joe Knollenberg (Nancy Skinner) and Mike Rogers (Jm Marcinkowski)

Minnesota: Michele Bachman (Patty Wetterling) and Gil Gutknecht (Tim Walz); possibly John Kline (Coleeb Rowley)

Nebraska: possibly Jeff Fortenberry (Maxine Moul), Adrian Smith (Scott Kleeb) and Lee Terry (Jim Esch)

New Hampshire: Charles Bass (Paul Hodes); possibly Jeb Bradley (Carol Shea-Porter)

New Jersey: possibly Mike Ferguson (Linda Stender)

New Mexico: Heather Wilson (Patricia Madrid)

New York: Sue Kelly (John Hall), John Sweeney (Kirsten Gillibrand), Ray Meier (Mike Arcuri), and Randy Kuhl (Eric Massa); possibly Tom Reynolds (Jack Davis), James Walsh (Dan Maffei) and Peter King (Dave Mejias)

North Carolina: Robin Hayes (Larry Kissell) and Charles Taylor (Heath Shuler)

Ohio: Steve Chabot (John Cranley), Mean Jean Schmidt (Victoria Wulsin), Deborah Pryce (Mary Jo Kilroy) and Joy Padgett (Zach Space); possibly Pat Tiberi (Bob Shamansky)

Pennsylvania: Jim Gerlach (Lois Murphy), Curt Weldon (Joe Sestak), Mike Fitzpatrick (Patrick Murphy), and Don "the Choker" Sherwood (Chris Carney); possibly Phil English (Steve Porter) and Melissa Hart (Jason Altmire)

Texas: Tom DeLay (Nick Lampson); possibly Henry Bonilla (primary winner)

Virginia: possibly Thelma Drake (Phil Kellam) and Frank Wolf (Judy Feder)

Washington: possibly Dave Reichert (Darcy Burner) and Cathy McMorris (Peter Goldmark)

Wisconsin: John Gard (Steve Kagen)

Wyoming: possibly Barbara Cubin (Gary Trauner)

That's between 32 and 70. Hope for a good day. The closer to 70 the more likely Bush will be impeached.


UPDATE: REID WILL BE SENATE LEADER AND FORD CAN SLINK OFF AND THINK ABOUT WHAT IT MEANS TO THROW FELLOW DEMOCRATS UNDER THE BUS AND THINK THEY'LL VOTE FOR YOU ANYWAY

I don't know how many progressives stayed home rather than soil themselves by voting for Ford, but enough did to give Corker the seat. Ford partisans are already talking about him running against the popular Lamar Alexander. That would probably end Ford's political career permanently, so I'm all for it. Daily Kos has a great diary with another perspective on why Ford lost.

3 Comments:

At 5:41 AM, Blogger low-tech cyclist said...

And Cheney too. Simulpeachment!!

Just as I was pulling into the parking lot at the office this morning, WRNR-FM, Annapolis MD, was playing, "Have You Had Enough?"

That gets the day off on the right foot!

 
At 8:08 AM, Blogger Zappatero said...

great analysis......better than the pros, and free!

 
At 8:52 AM, Blogger Newspaper Brat said...

Perfect weather and large early turnout on the Monterey peninsula - thanks for your great analysis Howie!

 

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