There's A Big Primary In The Tucson Area Tomorrow-- And it Could Be Waterloo For Another DCCC Candidate

The DCCC didn't have the decency wait for local Democratic voters to pick a candidate to run for the AZ-02 nomination. They just barreled in and endorsed-- and spent tons of money on-- the most conservative of the 7 Democrats in the race, Ann Kirkpatrick. Kirpatrick isn't from southern Arizona but she "moved" down to Tucson-- if she even did (she seems to live in Phoenix and just goes down to Tucson to visit her grandchildren and to campaign)-- to get back into Congress.

The 2 most recent polls-- one done for Kirkpatrick's campaign and one done for Matt Heinz's campaign-- both show Heinz slightly ahead, although a source inside the DCCC told me their own poll shows Heinz beating their candidate by 5 points. She's outspent him two-to-one and money has poured into the district, not just from the DCCC, mostly to introduce her to the locals, but from the contemptible No Labels network of dirty money SuperPACs funded by conservative billionaires (particularly the Murdoch family.) Why would wealthy Republicans be spending so much money in a Democratic primary?

Easy: whichever Democrat wins the primary is going to be the next AZ-02 member of Congress. The day Martha McSally announced she was running for the seat, Paul Ryan's SuperPAC folded up it's tent, shut down the Tucson campaign office and snuck out of town in the dead of night. They know very well that Republican Lea Marquez Peterson isn't going to win. She's not just like Trump policy-wise; she's brags incessantly about what a great businesswoman she is-- the way he did-- and then ignores questions about her gigantic bankruptcy-- like he did. Knowing that a Democrat has a 90% chance, Republican donors looked at Kirkpatrick's record and Heinz's record; it was no contest. Kirkpatrick is the best Republican running in the AZ-02 Democratic primary.

Matt Heinz is a progressive. Kirkpatrick, a New Dem, was an NRA star-- who publicly boasted she would protect them from Obama and who got an "A" rating from them. (As part of her campaign of lies and deception, she and her unscrupulous allies have been sending out mailers calling Heinz the NRA candidate to confuse voters. But that isn't the real reason why she's getting so much money from rich Republican contributors. What the Murdochs and their pals are most excited about is that Kirkpatrick voted with the GOP against Wall Street reform (Dodd-Frank), with the GOP on extending the Bush tax cuts, with the GOP on turning Medicare into a voucher program and, in general, voting with the GOP far more frequently than most Democrats. If you can't get a real Republican, you go for someone from the Republican wing of the Democratic Party. And that's Ann Kirkpatrick... always has been; always will be.

Her GOP allies are spending hundreds of thousands of dollars smearing Heinz. She has been moaning that Heinz's policy-oriented compare-and-contrast ads are "negative" but her negative mailers-- 3 on Friday alone-- are part of a tidal wave of slime and negativity. One of Politico's worst fools, Elena Schneider, wrote a lazy, misleading piece yesterday that doesn't even mention that Kirkpatrick is getting help from billionaire Republicans, like the Murdochs (which you'd think her editor and readers might be confused about). She also seems to have not bothered to explain where the negativity started in this race. Schneider also kept hammering home that Kirkpatrick, an arch conservative, is "a moderate." The word "moderate" is the most admired political description in U.S. politics. The opposite of "moderate" is what... radical? extremist? fanatical? What? Matt Heinz's policy agenda is in tune with what Americans want-- nice and moderate. Ann Kirkpatrick is way to the right of what Americans want-- positions so so conservative that the Murdochs and their Wall Street allies are bankrolling her (ironically, along with the DCCC-- yes, strange bed-fellows indeed). Elena needs to go back for some emergency journalism courses... stat.

How much like a Republican does she sound, especially at the end of this video where she brags about her "A" from the NRA? In fact this is how she greeted the NRA when they held their convention in Phoenix. "I am not going to allow Washington to ignore the values of Arizonans' and the traditions of four generations of my family in District One, and I am proud to be pushing back against the federal government to stop our Constitutional rights from being infringed. Every time the anti-gun rights groups propose legislation that restricts our freedoms, I am going to make sure they know millions of Americans will fight them every inch of the way." (And she lies right to the voters and says Heinz is the NRA candidate!) Don't forget to vote tomorrow. Washington is already too full of politicians just like Ann Kirkpatrick.

Another District The DCCC Is Stumbling Around In And Screwing Up The Works

Since we write so much about how terrible the DCCC interference in Democratic primaries is, people often ask me which one of the races are they screwing up the most. They've certainly done immense damage in Houston (TX-07), in Austin (TX-21), Dallas (TX-32), Omaha (NE-02), Orange County (CA-39), South Jersey (NJ-02), the Denver suburbs (CO-06), Syracuse (NY-24), and South Texas (TX-23), but the race in Tucson (AZ-02) may well be the most disgusting. Ann Kirkpatrick was already in Congress and accrued really horrible, conservative voting record and a consistent record of fighting tooth and nail for her benefactors at the NRA. Kirkpatrick was a rotgut New Dem and a disgrace to the Democratic Party. There are two viable Democrats in the primary this time and the DCCC has strongly backed Kirkpatrick even though she's not the strongest candidate.

How can I make that assertion? New polling of likely Democratic primary voters from FM3 Research released last week shows that Matt Heinz has a narrow lead despite the fact that Kirkpatrick has huge name recognition from her failed 2016 Senate race and has already spent $458,729 to Heinz's $220,032. (The DCCC has helped her corral $234,667 in PAC contributes-- compared to just $7,500 that Heinz has brought in from PACs.)

While Democratic primary voters are familiar with both candidates, they are more likely to hold a favorable opinion of Heinz, and after hearing equal positive nformation about these two candidates, support for Heinz increases. Furthermore, the survey shows that many aspects of Kirkpatrick’s voting record in Congress pose a serious problem for her among Democratic primary voters, particularly her support of Republican tax cuts, cuts to Medicare, and her former “A” rating from the NRA.

...In an initial Democratic primary ballot test, Matt Heinz currently leads the field with 27%, giving him a four-point edge over Ann Kirkpatrick (23%). These results show the highly competitive nature of the Democratic primary, and despite her high-profile and well-financed statewide candidacy for the U.S. Senate in 2016, 2nd District Democrats have not embraced Kirkpatrick. The contest is very much a two-person race, as the other candidates generate only mid-single digit support.

Heinz doubles his initial lead over Kirkpatrick after voters hear positive profile statements about both candidates. After learning more positive information about the candidates’ backgrounds, including their professional experience, Heinz increases his vote by 13 points and moves to an eight-point advantage (40%-32%) over Kirkpatrick.

The survey data also show significant primary voter concern about many aspects of Kirkpatrick’s record. Survey respondents were read a series of descriptive phrases, and were asked if they would be more or less likely to vote for a candidate who matched such a description. As Figure 3 shows, votes for Congressional Republicans’ legislation to cut Medicare and the support for Bush-era tax cuts elicited severe negative reactions-- more than eight in ten Democratic primary voters would be less likely to vote for a candidate-- like Kirkpatrick-- who took those positions. Voters also responded negatively to the idea that a candidate failed to vote on the DREAM Act, as six in ten (62%) said they would be less likely to vote for that person for Congress. Voters in the survey also reacted negatively to Kirkpatrick’s having received an “A” rating from the NRA.

Meanwhile, Kirkpatrick made such an ass out of herself at the last forum that she's started skipping subsequent ones... just like Martha McSally, the Republican incumbent does. What a clown. She's probably hoping the New Dems, the DCCC and EMILY's List will get her through. Meanwhile Heinz has pledged to voters that if he's elected he will join the Congressional Progressive Caucus.

The DCCC is Petrified The Parkland Students Are Going To Find Out About Ann Kirkpatrick's Record On Guns

DCCC endorsed NRA ally Ann Kirkpatrick instead of any of the progressives in AZ-02

Arizona's second district is one of the most competitive in the country. McCain beat Obama 50-49% and Romney beat him 50-48%. But then Hillary beat Trump 49.6% to 44.7%. In 2015 the PVI was R+3. Now it's R+1. The district includes most of Tucson-- everything but the Latino neighborhoods in the west and southern parts of the city and the whole southeast corner of the state, bordering on New Mexico and Mexico. Although all of Cochise County is included in the district, virtually all of the voters live in much bluer Pima County.

Both parties' primaries for Congress this year are also very komptetibe, especially since incumbent Martha McSally decided to run for the open U.S. Seante seat. The 5 Republicans running are Lea Peterson, Danny Morales, Brandon Martin, Casey Welch and Marilyn Wiles. There are also 6 Democrats running: Matt Heinz, Ann Kirkpatrick, Billy Kovacs, Mary Matiella, Barbara Sherry, and Bruce Wheeler. (There may be 2 other candidates running as Democrats running as well, Yahya Yuksel and William Foster but no one seems to know for sure. The filing deadline is May 30for the August 28th primary.)

Saturday, the Democrats all attended the March for our Lives rallies in either Tucson, except Barbara Sherry who went to the rally in Sierra Vista, while all the Republicans shared a stage at a candidates forum in private club, the Mountain Oyster Club, charging $7.50 to get in. Reporters were banned.

As of the December 31 FEC reporting deadline, the only Republican who had raised any significant money was Peterson ($218,266). Three Democrats had raised serious money: Kirkpatrick ($749,533), Heinz ($343,119) and Matiella ($151,425).

Platform-wise, all the Democrats are in sync on most issues, although Kirkpatrick, the most conservative of the 6, opposes Medicare-for-All. She's also a flip-floppy candidate who changes her mind to please whomever she's speaking to. She went from being one of the NRA's strongest allies in Congress-- keynoting their events and earning an "A"-- to claiming she now opposes them. Many Arizonans remember that Kirkpatrick was a co-sponsor for the National Right-to-Carry Reciprocity Act which allows those authorized to carry firearms in their home state to travel with their weapons. The DCCC has endorsed her. They always pick the most conservative candidate in contested races. Funny how their Red tie Blue page on Kirkpatrick doesn't say a word about her record as an NRA ally. Don't Democratic voters have a right to know?



There is no other Democrat running in AZ-02 who could have ever said this except Kirkpatrick:

"I am not going to allow Washington to ignore the values of Arizonans and the traditions of four generations of my family in District One, and I am proud to be pushing back against the federal government to stop our Constitutional rights from being infringed. Every time the anti-gun rights groups propose legislation that restricts our freedoms, I am going to make sure they know millions of Americans will fight them every inch of the way."

Nor this-- when she welcomed the NRA, which she referred to "one of the country’s oldest continuously operating civil liberties organizations," to Phoenix:

"As a gun owner myself, I firmly believe in the right of all Americans to keep and bear arms, and I am proud that my state is hosting the group that has protected that right for 138 years. This is a chance for Arizonans to show our nation’s leaders we will not let them take away our freedoms... People in Washington need to stop undermining the Second Amendment. That’s why I took on the Attorney General for his proposal to ban so-called 'assault weapons.' I will continue to work vigilantly to maintain and protect our Second Amendment rights against every challenge they face."

This is a truly disgusting person whose hands are dripping in the blood of school children. And Kirkpatrick is a carpetbagging careerist from the northern part of the state who has one of the most vile spam campaigns of any candidate for Congress in the whole country-- just an unrelenting shit-stream of banal, insipid and utterly insincere e-mails every single day. Yesterday, Sunday, was not exception:

I don’t have the words to describe just how grateful I am to have your support. We’re already being called one of the top 10 House races to watch by the Washington Post AND we’re one of four must-win seats for Democrats. And it’s only March!

I’ve seen all the birthday love from this past week. So many of you chipped in-- it truly warms my heart.

As we begin the second half of our campaign and march to November, I’m excited to see what we will accomplish together.

Mary Matiella and Matt Heinz are both far better candidates and either would make a better member of Congress. When we spoke with Mary recently she told us that "The DCCC is right about AZ-02 being a great pickup opportunity but they're wrong if they think an establishment/corporate Dem is the way to win. Southern Arizonans are a fiercely independent bunch and ultimately it's the voters, not the establishment who will decide who best represents their values." She followed with a statement for DWT readers about her stand on immigration reform:

I'm sick and tired of the Trump-McSally machine demonizing our immigrant communities to score political points with their most narrow-minded supporters. We are a nation of immigrants and dehumanizing communities of color in the name of border security is wrong. Militarizing our border sends the wrong message to the world and is an ineffective strategy for dealing with border security.

What I believe is simple: secure the border at the border. We need more Customs Officers at the ports of entry, rather than more agents combing the desert. Over 80% of the narcotics and violent criminals that come across our border do so through our ports of entry. And that's where we need to focus resources. Not miles away at checkpoints the narcos and the coyotes know how to avoid. And, $1.6 billion budgeted for border walls-- what a waste of money!

I believe in comprehensive immigration reform that includes protecting DREAMers, providing a pathway to citizenship for undocumented workers, and reducing the current visa backlog. Breaking up families, racially profiling in our communities, and strong-arm tactics are morally repugnant practices that only serve to divide our community.

This issue is deeply personal to me. I am a Latina who grew up in southern Arizona. Many members of my family, including my husband were born on the other side of the line. We must do better to deal with the economic and humanitarian issues along our border.

Ann Kirkpatrick-- This Is What It Means To Be A Careerist Politician With No Core Values

Later Kirkpatrick changed almost all her answers

When a candidate for office has no core values other than their own craven careerism, they'll flip-flop all over the griddle like a fish out of water. Ann Kirkpatrick is one of the worst candidates running for election anywhere in the country. At the urging of the DCCC, EMILY's List and the New Dems, she migrated down to Tucson from Flagstaff to run in the now-open second congressional district. But carpetbagging, although perhaps important to the folks in southern Arizona, isn't the worst thing about Kirkpatrick.

On Sunday there was a Democrats candidate forum at the Quail Creek retirement community just outside Green Valley. It was a disaster for Kirkpatrick, a disaster because she's torn in every direction... basically because there's no there there. On camera she pledged to not support Pelosi for Speaker, which seems odd, since it's Pelosi's DCCC that is the only thing that's propping up-- financially and otherwise-- her absurd campaign. [Her staff later said she didn't understand the question and that she would indeed support Pelosi.] Also laughable was her pledge to support term limits-- after going back on her own pledge to serve only three 2-year terms in the House. If elected again, this would be her 4th term! [She later tried "clarifing" that one too, but no one knows where she stands on the issue now-- probably exactly what she wants.]

She also pledged to co-sponsor Raul Grijalva's locally popular bill to restore protections for Oak Flat-- a sacred tribal area for San Carlos Apache that she and Paul Gosar (R-AZ) teamed up to STEAL from them a couple years ago on behalf of mining interests. She's so slimy that you have to be completely brain-dead to consider voting for her-- or not care about truth at all. She also pledged to oppose the Rosemont mine, even though when she was in Congress she was always publicly for mining projects, including, of course, this one. [She later said she didn't understand that question either and that she would continue supporting the mine.]

And then the gun issue and her close mutually-supportive relationship with the NRA.Take a look at this news segment from her election campaign in 2010:



An untrustworthy political hack, she smells which way the wind is blowing and on Monday she pledged to support an assault weapons ban-- after loudly leading the opposition to such a ban for her entire grimy political career. She also told the forum attendees show will now oppose her old allies in the NRA in all possible ways-- despite her A rating that she bragged about until very recently. She defines the term "dishonest politician," perfect for the DCCC, perfect for EMILY's List, perfect for the New Dems. Ann Kirkpatrick is the quintessential candidate for the Republican wing of the Democratic Party.

Green Valley was really quite the show. When she figured out that there was a GOP tracker present and filming her, she made sure to state emphatically that "I do not support single payer health care. And I do not support Medicare for All," claiming it is too expensive. Of course that was met by 400 blank stares from the perplexed audience of mostly progressive Democrats. She then described a Medicare buy in plan-- stolen almost word-for word from other Democratic candidates-- which is an expansion of an existing single payer system.

She was all over the place... again a politician that stands for nothing but her own career. So pathetic!

Mary Matiela is one of the progressives in the primary and she also took part in Quail Creek the forum Sunday. "I think the differences between my candidacy and Congresswoman Kirkpatrick's are really coming into focus," she told us. "While she's been talking to the donor class I've been out talking with the voters. I've heard what issues they care about. Voters want single payer healthcare, they support the regulation of marijuana for adult use, and they want our public lands protected from wealthy corporations. These are issues I will fight for, and that Ann will continue to fight against. Ours is a grassroots campaign, so we'll rely on the people spreading the message, not corporate PACs-- but if we can spread that message, we'll prevail. There's growing momentum from progressive leaders like Congressman Raul Grijalva and national progressive groups like Democracy for America, Justice Democrats, Demand Universal Healthcare, Project 100, and Common Defense. This race is shaping up to be the moderate vs. the progressive and I'm thrilled to be the latter."

Martha McSally Refuses To Hold Town Halls But A Secret Tape Of Her Talking To Banksters Could Kill Her Re-election Shot

Arizona's second congressional district (the white parts of Tucson, the eastern half of Pima County and all of Cochise County) is one of the swingiest in the country. In 2008, McCain beat Obama 50-49% (3,000 votes), in 2012 Romney beat Obama 49.9-48.4% and last year Hillary beat Señor Trumpanzee 49.6% to 44.7%. Meanwhile the current congresswoman, knee-jerk Ryan rubber stamp Martha McSally, lost to Ron Barber in 2012, the first time she ran, by 2,454 votes (out of 292,000 cast) and then beat him in 2014 by 161 votes, the closest race in the country. Last year McSally did better against a weak Democratic candidate with no DCCC support. She beat him 179,806 (57%) to 135,873 (43%). She spent $7,826,194 to his $1,576,119 and while the DCCC refused to spend any money tp help Matt Heinz, Ryan's shady SuperPAC put $662,677 into the race against him.

It isn't clear who her opponent will be in 2018 but it is clear that AZ-02 will be one of the backward-looking DCCC's top red-to-blue targets. Ex-Republican Billy Kovacs, William Foster, Charlie Verdin (a Berniecrat), former Air Force fighter pilot Jeff Latas, and conservative former state legislator Victoria Steele have all either indicated that they're running or that they're probably running. And, grotesque right-wing career politician Ann Kirkpatrick, a worthless fake Democrat, who represented a district in distant Flagstaff senses another opportunity to wreck more of the Democratic Parry brand by moving south and challenging McSally, who would easily make mincemeat out of her. If people want a conservative Republican they can vote for McSally; why bother to vote for one with a "D" next to her name? (Last year she challenged McCain in the Senate race and lost dismally after running an incoherent and inauthentic campaign-- 53.7% to 40.7%-- that not even the DSCC could support. Schumer and Tester spent $46,000 before realizing what a complete dud she is and abandoning her to her fate.

McSally's best hope for a win would be a Blue Dog or New Dem like Kirkpatrick as an opponent. With no real choice, it would take a mammoth anti-Trump/anti-Ryan tsunami to dislodge McSally for someone offering no real alternative other than partisan labeling. But whichever Democrat does face her, they will be happy to know that the right-wing crackpots at the Club for Growth have been running TV ads against McSally already, claiming she's a "professional politician" and that she's "in the way," although she votes for virtually everything Trump and Ryan want so I'm not sure-- short of a fascist take over of government-- what the Club for Growth goons what her to get out of the way of.

Last week, Trump's SuperPAC, America First Policies, announced they'll be countering the Club for Growth ads in appreciation for her support for TrumpCare. DJ Quinlan, spokesman for the Arizona Alliance for Healthcare Security, said the ads by America First Policies was another demonstration that McSally was aligned with Trump. "McSally showed her true colors when she supported a bill that would take healthcare coverage away from 41,000 people in her own community. She has forgotten that she is supposed to be working for the people of Southern Arizona, not taking orders from Donald Trump." Her polling is in the garbage, showing that if elections were today, she would lose to a generic Democrat by 7 points. Her job approval rating is in the mid-30's, a political death sentence.

A couple days ago, the Tucson Weekly got its hands on a secret tape that could be very harmful to McSally's reelection prospects, a secret tape of McSally speaking privately to the fat-cats at the Arizona Bankers Association. What she said to them was very different from what she says to her Republican base, who she's been working hard to convince that she and Trump and on the same page, maybe a good primary tact but terrible for a general election in a 50-50 district like AZ-02.

McSally complained that President Donald Trump and his tweets were creating troubling "distractions" and "it's basically being taken out on me. Any Republican member of Congress, you are going down with the ship. And we're going to hand the gavel to Pelosi in 2018, they only need 28 seats and the path to that gavel being handed over is through my seat. And right now, it doesn't matter that it's me, it doesn't matter what I've done. I have an 'R' next to my name and right now, this environment would have me not prevail."

Admittedly, McSally was making these comments as she was asking the bankers to open their checkbooks for her reelection campaign, so it could well be that she was just doing the ol' fear-mongering-for-dollars act.

McSally's comments came to light after some of McSally's critics-- including Kristen Randall, the leader of Indivisible Southern Arizona-- ordered tickets to a talk McSally was giving at a luncheon for the Arizona Bankers Association.

Someone on Team McSally, however, appears to have taken a closer look at who was attending the event, because four of the five members of the group received emails about two hours before the lunch informing them that their tickets had been revoked. "They caught onto us," Randall says with a laugh.

But the fifth member... did manage to appear bankerly enough to crash the party-- and the spy recorded McSally's entire speech for the Randall's group, and from there, it fell into our hands.

McSally was more blunt in many of her comments behind closed doors than she typically is when questioned on the issues. In fact, she expressed frustration that the media and her constituents ask her to comment on what President Trump says and does.

"The environment has changed and some of it changed on January 20," McSally told the crowd. "There's just an element out there that's just, like, so against the president. Like they just can't see straight. And all of a sudden on January 20, I'm like his twin sister to them. And I'm, like, responsible for everything he does, and tweets and says. And they want me to be spending my time as a pundit. 'I disagree with that. I agree with this.' I have a job in the legislature!"

Randall says she does expect McSally to speak up when Trump does something offensive.

"That's her job," Randall says. "When there's going to be a vote, we want a statement. We want a dialogue. And she's not giving it to us. She seems really put out... She's a leader in our community and that is part of her job. There's a human component to her job that she very obviously does not enjoy."

In her talk, McSally acknowledged that the job comes with a lot of frustration. She said serving in Congress had gotten a lot harder since Trump's election last year and that she's forced to "navigate in the political theater, but I don't breathe life into it and I don't enjoy it, just to be frank with you. It actually drains me."

As she was talking to bankers, McSally focused on the latest GOP efforts to repeal the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act that regulated banks after the 2007 economic collapse. She characterized Dodd-Frank as a hindrance to banks that needs to be repealed.

...Randall says she's still hoping McSally will do some open town halls in Tucson so her group won't have to resort to subterfuge to try to find out her positions.

"I'm pretty angry that she was willing to talk to out-of-district bankers but she's not willing to talk to us," Randall said.

In the meantime, Indivisible Southern Arizona will be back to the protest beat at 8 a.m. Friday morning outside McSally's midtown offices, 4400 E. Broadway. This time, the group will be expressing unhappiness about McSally's support for overturning Dodd-Frank-- and they'll have loudspeakers to play McSally's comments about the law to the bankers.

The banksters love McSally and the Finance Sector gave her more in bribes last cycle than any other Arizona congressmember other than House Financial Services member and Wall Street shill Blue Dog Krysten Sinema. Sinema took $1,003,940 in bribes from the sector. McSally got $760,766. The next biggest Arizona recipient was Republican David Schweikert ($213,850). Same thing career-long. The banksters' top fave-- meaning most easily corrupted-- was Sinema ($1,817,930) and #2 was McSally ($1,415,903). The banksters don't give out that kind of money without a return on investment and Sinema and McSally both stink to high heaven of corruption and shouldn't just be defeated in their reelection attempts; each deserves to go to prison for accepting bribes.