What Is Trump And His Idiotic Trade War Doing To Wisconsin Workers?

A few days ago I read something about Wisconsin cranberry farmers facing a very bad year because of Trump's trade war. Retaliation is a bitch. Maine is the top cranberry producer in the U.S.There are 20 counties across the state that grow cranberries. Wood, Jackson, Monroe and Juneau are the top producers. All of them are losing jobs now. They all voted for Señor Job Producer in 2016:

• Wood- 57.0% to 37.7%
• Jackson- 53.3% to 41.5%
• Juneau- 61.2% to 39.1%
• Monroe- 58.5% to 36.0%

Trump won the state's 10 electoral votes 1,409,467 (47.9%) to 1,382,210 (46.9%). So close. I bet Hillary wouldn't have started any trade wars. Cranberries are bad enough but that's not the only sector in Wisconsin suffering under Trump's brilliant trade strategy. Harley Davidson is the one everyone is talking about. Milwaukee is where Harley has it's corporate headquarters and the bikes are made in Ryan's district. Aluminum boats are another important business in Wisconsin in trouble.

Boat manufacturers say the escalating trade dispute with China took another bad turn this week that could scuttle sales of aluminum boats popular in Wisconsin.

In the billions of dollars of tariffs that Trump’s administration has proposed on Chinese goods, a new tariff of 167 percent on the type of aluminum used for recreational boats would bring the total tariff on that product to at least 210 percent.

“This is terrible news for marine manufacturers as aluminum boats represent 44 percent of new boat sales each year and account for $3 billion in retail sales,” Thom Dammrich, president of the Chicago-based National Marine Manufacturers, said Wednesday.

“These tariffs are disrupting the global aluminum market and increasing the cost of raw materials for U.S. manufacturers,” Dammrich said.

In addition, roughly 300 component parts commonly used in recreational boats are now subject to a 25 percent tariff following a recent announcement of Section 301 tariffs on $50 billion worth of Chinese products.

Canada, the European Union and Mexico-- which account for 69 percent of annual U.S. boat exports-- have announced retaliatory tariffs on boats of 10 percent, 25 percent and 15 percent respectively.

“In an attempt to punish China, the administration is wreaking havoc on the global economy. These harmful policies will have costly effects across American industries, but few to none are being singled out quite like the U.S. recreational boating industry,” Dammrich said.

The U.S. recreational marine industry supports 650,000 jobs and last year had $37 billion in sales.

Year after year, Wisconsin ranks in the top 10 states in sales of new powerboats, engines and accessories. Wisconsin also is home to Mercury Marine and Evinrude, two of the largest manufacturers of outboard engines.

Many U.S. boat makers use domestic aluminum, but the tariffs on Chinese material will push up the prices globally, according to Dammrich.

If rising aluminum and steel prices harm powerboat sales, by pricing some consumers out of the market, it’s going to send a wave across the boating industry, he said.

“If you don’t sell as many boats, then you don’t sell as many engines, electronics and everything else."

Yesterday, CNN reported that "Harley-Davidson's move is some of the most direct evidence yet that tit-for-tat trade fights between the United States and other countries have consequences for American companies. Harley-Davidson said it stood to lose as much as $100 million a year. 'Increasing international production to alleviate the EU tariff burden is not the company's preference, but represents the only sustainable option,' Harley-Davidson said in a regulatory filing on Monday... Europe is its second-largest market behind the United States. In 2017, nearly 40,000 European customers bought new Harleys, compared with about 148,000 in the United States."

After the idiot's tweet this morning, the Washington Post reported that he threatened Harley-Davidson "with severe taxes and predicted a public revolt that he said would eventually put the 115-year-old firm out of business, blasting the Wisconsin company for a plan to move some operations outside the United States as a way to avoid getting caught in the middle of an escalating trade war."

Harley Davidson's new SEC filing warns of the "tremendous cost increase" from EU tariffs that will set the company back $100 million a year-- and is causing the company to move production overseas from the U.S. Señor Job Producer strikes again! Paul Ryan may be IS a rubber stamp for Trump no matter what it does to his constituents... but Randy Bryce is the polar opposite. Today he warned people in the district to "Take cover, Donald Trump is descending on Wisconsin's First Congressional District this Friday. But while working people all across the state have been working harder than ever with less and less to show for it, Trump isn't coming to provide any relief from the damage his agenda has caused. Donald Trump is coming to 'celebrate' the groundbreaking for the Foxconn Technology Group manufacturing plant in Mount Pleasant and attend a fundraiser in his honor, where the least expensive ticket is more than most folks make in a 2-week pay period. We may have repealed Paul Ryan, but Wisconsin Republicans are still holding on strong... Foxconn, a multinational corporation, is notorious for human rights abuses. In their short time in Wisconsin, they're already responsible for taking people's houses through eminent domain to build their new factory while seeking, and receiving, exemptions to the environmental regulations that protect our state. One thing is clear from this visit: Donald Trump doesn't give a crap about working people. WI-01 deserves better."

You can be sure that Bryce will fight for working people because he is a working person-- and that won't stop when he gets to Congress. "Trump promised to keep U.S. jobs in America," Randy told us this morning. "Not only is he failing horribly (ask Carrier) but he is being successful at turning our allies against us. If China dumping steel onto our shores is the problem, let's fix that instead of sending jobs overseas. It's the direct opposite of where we need to go. We need to protect our friends, not turn them into adversaries. I'm looking forward to getting elected so that we can once again have a House of Representatives that will be part of the checks and balances that has been a part of our nation's safeguard since its inception. Our Founders foresaw someone like Trump as a possibility. Unfortunately they didn't predict a Congress that would put party over people while sitting on their hands. American workers deserve legislation demanding that products we use are made here."

In The Real World Any Organization That Lost As Badly And As Predictably As The DCCC Would Be Replaced... And With A New Staff

WI-01, Paul Ryan’s district was never a solid red district. Obama even won it the first time he ran. It was always a swing district that Pelosi and the DCCC allowed-- aggressively allowed-- Ryan to retain… and retain unchallenged. It’s been driving me nut for a decade and Blue America had been looking for candidates to runnfor many years. About a year ago, the candidate who came closest-- despite the regular DCCC sabotage-- to beating Ryan, Rob Zerban, called me and told me to get in touch with an iron worker and union activist, Randy Bryce. Zerban told me if I could talk him into running, he could beat Ryan. Later the same day I got a similar call from state Senator Chris Larson. Chris told me the Wisconsin Working Families Party was already on the case but that they could use some help in persuading Randy to run. OK, I trust Zerban and Larson; I called. The first couple of times I spoke with Bryce he wasn’t certain he wanted to run for Congress. But he was open to being persuaded.

We talked about running to win, not running to make a statement, not running to turn out voters to help Tammy Baldwin’s reelection to to beat Scott Walker-- running to replace Paul Ryan in Congress, running to do something that is next to impossible: defeat a sitting House Speaker… and defeat someone with millions of dollars in campaign funds and with access to as many millions as he would ever need. And Randy doesn’t know any rich people. Randy is a union and veterans activist, struggling to make sure he and his son had the money to pay for health insurance. I promised to introduce him to the best political managers in America, not the second best, not the third best, not the kind of DCCC clones who steal money from candidates and lose and lose and lose and lose. Forget that type, I cautioned him; let’s go with people who know how to win. Bill Hyers helped Randy make that first video that launched the campaign. And David Keith helped Bryce make the @IronStache he had been cultivating for years into the most valuable political brand since Bernie’s, Elizabeth Warren’s and Trump’s. And they helped him raise the millions of small donor campaign dollars that could compete with Ryan without having to turn to the DCCC, the New Dems, corporate PACs or lobbyists.

On Monday, Roll Call reported that Bryce’s team had raised $2.1 million dollars in the first quarter of 2018. Unlike Ryan himself, who is likely to retire rather than face near-certain defeat at Bryce’s hands, the conventional wisdom machine that is Roll Call still call Bryce, “a long shot.” Ryan knows better, even if completely silly Beltway “pros” rate the district “solid Republican.”

So far, Bryce has raised $4.75 million-- and the $2.1 million raised in the most recent quarter is nearly double the $1.2 million raised the previous quarter. He’s been on TV already but he still has $2.3 million in cash on hand. There are no DCCC candidates anywhere, not even all their ridiculous self-funders, who are in as strong a position as Bryce. And he’s doing it by sticking strongly with his progressive, working family-oriented positions, not be turning into some GOP-lite mesh-mash, like the DCCC advises all candidates to turn into.

Nathaniel Rakich, writing for FiveThirtyEight, suggested Monday morning to be skeptical of anyone who tells you they know how Democrats can win in November. Ready for nerd-time?

It’s old news by now that Democratic candidates have done unusually well in Trump-era elections so far, suggesting that the 2018 midterms will be a good cycle for the party. So why keep writing about them? Well, for one thing, we’re inveterate psephology addicts-- but also, the more special elections that occur, the more data we have to identify patterns not only across special elections, but within them.

Today, let’s use special-election results to try to answer a question that will be pivotal in the midterms: Which is a better representation of the true base partisanship of the United States, 2012 or 2016? By winning white, working-class areas (especially in the Midwest) but losing traditional GOP strongholds in suburbia and the Sun Belt, President Trump charted an electoral map that looked slightly but notably different from Mitt Romney’s four years earlier. Was that mini-realignment a Trump-only phenomenon, or will the new voting patterns stick around for this year’s congressional elections?

The answer will have big implications for Democrats between now and Election Day. If 2016 represents a new normal, then the party would do well to prioritize suburban districts that moved from Romney to Hillary Clinton, such as the California 45th, Illinois 6th or Texas 7th. But if the 2012 map still applies, then Democrats might be better off targeting districts that voted for Obama before they defected to Trump, like the Iowa 1st, Maine 2nd and New York 19th. Guess wrong, and the party will end up spending valuable time and money in districts that are redder than they appear while lower-hanging fruit goes untouched.

It hasn’t quite reached the level of accepted conventional wisdom, but a narrative is starting to take hold that Democrats’ best path to a majority in the U.S. House is through the suburbs. We think the jury is still out, and you should be skeptical of these claims. Yes, Democrats have overperformed in the suburbs, but that’s because they’ve overperformed everywhere. If they’ve outperformed expectations among certain demographics more than others-- and the picture is far too fuzzy to say for sure if they have-- it’s probably been among working-class voters without college degrees.

To test this, we looked at every election pitting at least one Democrat against at least one Republican since Jan. 20, 2017 (Inauguration Day). This includes 99 special elections, both state and federal, plus the regularly scheduled 2017 elections for statewide constitutional office and state legislature in New Jersey and Virginia. For each district or state where those elections took place, we collected three pieces of data that indirectly communicate its place on the spectrum from “working class” to “affluent suburbia”: its median household income; the percentage of its residents over age 25 who possess a bachelor’s degree or higher; and the difference between Clinton’s margin and Obama’s margin there. The higher each of these values is for a given district, the more suburban it tends to be.

Then we looked for patterns: Did any of those suburbany variables predict the improvement in Democrats’ margins in 2017-2018 elections compared to each district’s normal partisan lean?

The answer is... not really.

OK, that’s not entirely accurate, but we want to make sure no one reads too much into this. Household income, college educations and swings toward Clinton all had slight-- very slight!-- negative relationships with Democratic overperformance in Trump-era elections; as the former went up, the latter went down. In other words, on average (and relative to partisan lean), Democrats are doing better in working-class areas than in suburban ones. [Suggestion: take a look at the post we did on Sunday about Thomas Piketty’s new white paper on the topic.]

But there’s a massive caveat: The relationship in each case is quite weak. You can see that in how wide the variation is in Democratic overperformance. In areas that shifted toward Clinton, Democratic margins have been up to 36 percentage points better than the partisan leans of their districts would lead us to expect-- and they’ve been as much as 37 points worse. In places where the median household income is less than $50,000, Democrats have run ahead of their presidential candidates by as much as 61 points and run behind by as much as 37. On average, Democrats are doing better in working-class areas than in suburban ones-- but the dozens of examples to the contrary make a blanket statement like that almost worthless (and certainly not something you should base a midterm prediction on).

In short, special elections aren’t really telling us whether the 2012 or 2016 map is a better picture of current American partisanship. Our best guess is that the 2018-and-beyond map will be a hybrid of the two. Some of the voting patterns we saw emerge in 2016 may stick around, but the 2012 map still holds plenty of sway. We’ve already seen some reversion to the mean in “Trump country.”

A null finding like this can be frustrating, but it’s still valuable information, not least because it helps dispel narratives like the “suburban surge” that have little grounding in reality. One thing the data does show is that Democrats are capable of winning districts of all kinds, even if it doesn’t always work out that way. That should reassure the party that there may not be a wrong answer when choosing which types of districts to target-- at least when it comes to demographics. (Some other factor, such as candidate quality, may better explain when Democrats overperform and when they don’t.) For those of you thirsty for a grand conclusion to draw from this exercise, here it is: Be skeptical of any argument that claims to know one correct path forward for Democrats.

Meanwhile, the DCCC is handing out new polling from Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research that they claim suggests that Democratic candidates running in swing districts must express a willingness to work with Señor Trumpanzee when his agenda might help the district. The DCCC tells their candidates to go along with conventional wisdom about the economy even if the candidate knows its wrong and would prefer to lead rather than follow. The DCCC, which hates and fears progressives more than Republicans, is afraid the progressive energy that is spreading enthusiasm among voters will be contagious for the kind of pointless shell-candidates the DCCC has recruited. They want their crappy candidates to stay away from campaigning against Trump and they insist that their candidates embrace the improving economy and, as always, to be as Republican-lite as they can without causing Democratic voters to stay home on Election Day. That’s Pelosi’s DCCC, which has been singing the same old message for a decade, while losing dozens and dozens of House seats. They can’t win elections without a wave because they’re self-referencing morons. That’s why Randy Bryce ignores their advise and does so well, while their own recruits are withering on the vine from coast to coast.

Do You Wish You Knew Exactly What Candidates For Congress Plan To Do In DC Before You Vote For Them? Here's What Randy Bryce Will Do

Right after his wildly successful rally in Racine over the weekend with Bernie Sanders, Randy Bryce released his economic platform for southeast Wisconsin. Bryce is a long-time union organizer and serves as the head of the Wisconsin Veterans Chamber of Commerce. He-- as union activists across the country-- were especially roiled by yesterday's decision by the Supreme Court to hear arguments in Janus v. AFSCME, "a case," he explained "funded by billionaires in order to devastate unions across the country." This economic policy platform was outlined in a speech to the Wisconsin Council of Machinists at their statewide convention. The platform is very much oriented towards the direct aspirations and needs of working families. The DCCC-- thanks to Rahm Emanuel's tutelage-- always warns Democratic candidates to not get specific about an agenda, to just talk in platitudes that won't offend anyone. Where has that gotten them over the last decade? I'm so glad to see Randy's innate independence has him ignoring their idiocy. He'll win wave or no wave.

Pass the Butch Lewis Act.  Pensions that hardworking union members have paid into their entire careers are in grave jeopardy. Many retirees have already seen their monthly payments cut by a third or more. The Butch Lewis Act would provide a responsible solution so that the hardworking men and women who responsibly paid into their pension are not forced into poverty.

Pass a Federal Domestic Bill of Rights. All workers should have the right to join a union, but currently a law passed roughly 90 years ago does not allow people who work in the home to organize. These workers, including health aides, care for our families. They have some of the most important jobs in this country, and they should have the right to form a union.

Fully Staff OSHA. The Occupational Safety and Health Administration was already understaffed before President Trump took office, with just a 2,000 inspectors charged with protecting our entire nation's workforce. But under the Trump administration, the situation has worsened, with recent reports finding that four percent of the workforce has been reduced. Workers should not have to jeopardize their safety in order to provide for their family. As a Congressman, Randy would work to fully fund OSHA.

Raise the Minimum Wage to $15/hour. No one working full-time should live in poverty. As a Congressman, Randy would support efforts to increase the minimum wage to $15/ hour. Hear Randy discuss more about the minimum wage.

 

Pass the Wage Theft Prevention and Wage Recovery Act. There is not nearly enough recourse for workers who are not paid for their labor, an all too common occurrence in non-union construction and the service industry, especially. The legislation would increase the fiscal penalties for violating wage and hour laws, and business owners found to be stealing from their employers would be required to pay damages.

Pass the Schedules that Work Act. The service economy is growing rapidly, and increasing number of Wisconsin families rely on these jobs to sustain them. It is important as this sector continues to grow that they provide workers with fair working conditions, which includes giving workers advanced notice of when they will be needed for work and how many hours they can expect to work. This lack of information makes it difficult for families to secure safe, reliable childcare or eldercare arrangements, and otherwise places the family in economic strain because they can't reliably predict their monthly income.

Pass Medicare for All. Our current healthcare system does not work for middle class families. Tied to employment, families can face sudden loss of care if the head of the household loses their job, doubling their economic crisis. And even when families do have insurance, the industry's for-profit model means families are often faced with inexplicably high drug and test costs. Medicare for All would lower costs for families and businesses by giving the government greater negotiating power with health insurance companies and untying health insurance from employment.



Pass Paid Medical and Family Leave. Currently, about 15 percent of workers have access to paid leave through their employers. That means the overwhelming majority of Americans and Wisconsites are forced to make enormous financial sacrifices if they want to spend time with their newborn child, care for an ill family member, or recover from an illness themselves. Randy supports the FAMILY Act, which would guarantee nearly all workers 12 weeks of paid medical or family leave. Randy opposes the Republican alternative proposal to support paid medical and family leave by raiding funds that are currently designated to Social Security.

Ensure Equal Pay for Equal Work. The pay gap for women and people of color has barely budged in decades. It's time to take decisive action to correct this disparity. As a Congressman, Randy would support laws that would allow employees to refuse to disclose their current salary when applying for a new job, a question employers often ask to low-ball prospective candidates, which has also been show to perpetuate the pay gap. Randy also supports a minority inclusion provision for the FoxConn project, which would ensure 20% of the total construction cost went to minority and/or women business enterprises; 20% of the total worker hours were performed by minority and/or women workers; and 20% of the total worker hours were performed by minority and or/women apprentices. Hear Randy talk more about the importance of expanding access to the Building Trades.



Incentivize Veteran Hiring and Entrepreneurship. Speaker Ryan passed a bill this year repealing the Work Opportunities Credit, a tax credit provided to businesses who hire veterans. While the tax credit was later restored by the Senate, Speaker Ryan and his colleagues disregard for the opportunity this credit provided to veterans is deeply disturbing. As a Congressman, Randy would fight to protect this credit and to provide additional opportunities to veterans who want to start their own business through a dedicated fund of low-interest start-up loans. Hear Randy talk more about his experience working with his fellow vets to transition them back into the civilian workforce.

 

Expand Programs for Workforce Development. Wisconsin workers are facing a time of increasing automation, outsourcing & downsizing of jobs, and contractual employment without benefits. Randy will give high priority to programs financing new enterprises that demand skilled and unskilled human participation. He will support incentives for expanding  renewable energy and energy conservation, and he will support or develop other job creating legislation action in areas like: ecosystem restoration, including renewal of degraded forests, lakes, and rivers; and restoration of abandoned industrial, and commercial, and public buildings. An area close to his heart is funding high quality care of the disabled, children, elders, and mentally ill. Finally, he will use his on-the-job experience working with Ironworkers Local 8 to improve workforce development and training in all these areas.

Invest in Traditional and Green Infrastructure. Wisconsin has the worst roads in the Mid-West and nearly the worst roads in the country. The President's plan to invest in our infrastructure would rely heavily on privatization, increasing tolls and other costs for Wisconsinites, while creating few good, union jobs. Funding our infrastructure is one of government's most basic responsibilities. Randy supports Senator Sanders $1 trillion infrastructure program-- which would expand high-speed Internet, improve road, bridges and water systems as well as increase access to clean energy sources. As an ironworker saw first hand how the expansion of clean energy created more family-sustaining jobs for those in the trades.

Make Permanent the Tax Credits for Middle Income Households. Speaker Ryan has spent a lot of time touting the tax cuts middle class families will receive in his so-called "Tax Cuts and Jobs Act." What he consistently fails to mention is that those tax cuts are set to expire in ten years. As Speaker, Randy would lobby to make those tax cuts permanent, while eliminating tax loopholes for corporations and the very wealthy. Hear Randy talk more about the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act.

 

Pass a Financial Transactions Tax. A tax on Wall Street transactions can raise considerable revenue will reducing the risky behavior that has had devastating effects on our nation's economy in the past, including high speed training and short term financial betting. According to the non-partisan Tax Policy Center, a .1% transaction tax would raise $185 billion over 10 years.

Protect LIHEAP. The Low Income Home Energy Assistance Program helps low-income families, the elderly and the disabled pay their heating bills. President Trump has proposed cuts to this program. As a Congressman, Randy will fight to protect this family that helps keep our most vulnerable safe and healthy in their homes.

Protect and Expand Social Security.  The Social Security administration is closing offices across the country, including at least one in Wisconsin. As a Congressman, Randy will fight to keep them open so seniors can access the benefits they've paid into their entire working lives. Randy will also campaign to increase the FICA cap. The wealthy should pay their fair share in order to make the system more sustainable for everyone.

Renegotiate NAFTA. While Wisconsin dairymen and corn growers have benefited from increased exports due to NAFTA, the auto industry and its workers have suffered serious losses. Car and truck plants and their suppliers have moved to Mexico, stranding a large number of workers and their communities. In renegotiation of NAFTA or creation of new agreements Randy will seek to preserve these benefits to farming and supporting policy that encourages the return of auto and truck manufacturing.

Support Family Farms. Family farms are struggling to survive while government subsidies and support programs usually benefit large corporate farms over small ones. The stress is so high that farming suffers the highest suicide rate of any occupation in the U.S. Randy will support and improve legislation that corrects bias in Department of Agriculture programs. He will fight for farm policies that open new economic opportunities for small farms in farm-to-consumer sales, the transition to organic production, on-site renewable energy production, and shared processing and storage. He will demand enforcement of federal antitrust laws against large agribusiness and food corporations that dominate many markets.

Is Paul Ryan Leaving Congress?

I'm looking at internal polling and results of focus groups and there just is no way Ryan can run in WI-01 in 2018. This district is about 30% Republican and 30% Democrat and 40% independent. In the last few elections the independents have come down-- slightly-- on the GOP side. That isn't how they feel now. They don't like Trump and they see Ryan as an enabler. Huge numbers of them are closed to even listening to his message. If Ryan wants to run for president some day-- and he does-- he can't be beaten in his home district by a union iron worker. Yesterday Brent Budowsky, writing for The Hill, predicted Ryan won't run. He expects Ryan to announce his retirement from Congress but that he's "holding back the announcement to avoid House Republicans being devastated by yet another congressional Republican joining the rush to retirement that plagues the GOP today."

Speaker Ryan owes it to his constituents in Wisconsin to make a declarative statement, one way or the other, to make it clear whether he is running or retiring.

Ryan can disprove my prediction that he will not run by making an unequivocal statement about his intentions in 2018. If he does, I will return to this page and humbly admit that this prediction was proven wrong.

Throughout the corridors of the capitol in official Washington, the possibility of a Ryan retirement is generating far more buzz than the media is reporting today.

If Ryan does retire, there will be a huge battle between different GOP factions regarding who should succeed him as speaker. Different groups, from the House Freedom Caucus to more traditional Republicans, are positioning themselves behind the scenes for what would be an epic succession battle.

Ryan would have good reasons to retire, if that is his decision. House Republicans are on the defensive politically. There is a better-than-even chance that Democrats regain control of the House in the midterm elections, which is a major reason why so many House Republicans are announcing their retirement in the first place.

There is widespread speculation that Ryan could run for president in some future election. If he does, he would be a credible candidate. He performed well as the vice-presidential nominee running with Mitt Romney in 2012.

Ryan’s longer-term political problem is that he has chosen to be one of the leading Trump Republicans in national politics, fervently supporting Trump’s legislative agenda and supporting or tolerating the faction of House Republicans who are attacking Robert Mueller, his special counsel team and the FBI. The tighter Ryan is tied to the highly unpopular Trump, the lower the chances he is someday elected president.

Ryan’s short-term problem is far more severe. If Democrats win control of the House in 2018, the House will not be a hospitable place for Ryan and House Republicans, who have spent recent years treating Congress as a one-party Republican state that is widely seen as a bastion of intense support for Trump.

Even worse from Ryan’s point of view, if Democrats gain a significant number of seats in 2018, which is virtually certain, Ryan will find the House ungovernable for Republicans.

If Ryan spends the rest of the current legislative year sabotaging support for the "Dreamers," as one major Republican faction wants him to do, and launching a new attack against highly popular programs, such as Medicare and Social Security, the strong prospect for Democrats regaining control could become a tidal wave leading to a Democratic mega-landslide.

Having spent a half-life working for Democratic leaders in Congress, if Speaker Ryan asked my advice, which he certainly will not, it would be for him to announce he is getting out now.

He will neither enjoy nor politically benefit from the gathering storm that is facing House Republicans today and appears destined to become even worse. This is not conducive to the most happy family or professional life.

If Ryan announces he is retiring this year, the news would be devastating for House Republicans, but the longer he waits, the closer the news gets to the midterm voting, and news of Ryan retiring will create even more catastrophic damage for the GOP.

Whether he chooses to run or not, Ryan owes it to his constituents, his party and the nation to announce his intention to run for re-election and promise to serve a full term, or to promptly announce his days in the House are soon coming to an end.

I predict he leaves. Time will tell.

There's a lot of chatter going on about who the Republican candidate in southeast Wisconsin will be when Ryan retires. Some people were speculating it would be Reince Priebus but the party establishment seems to be settling in on the controversial Robin Vos, owner of RoJo's Popcorn and the ALEC-owned Assembly Speaker.

David Keith, Bryce's campaign manager, who is back from Thailand where he was attacked by a monkey that broke his shoulder and fractured several toes, is looking forward to taking on Ryan but vows to not let him do what the monkey did. "Ryan faces a problem he hasn’t faced yet in his Congressional career," he told us this morning. "He has a problem money can’t fix. He has relied on his war chest to allow him to run absurd amounts of advertising to relatively uninformed voters to create the image of him as a good guy. People often tell me Ryan used to be the 'aww shucks' kind of guy, whatever that means. That was the image money bought him apparently. The problem for him now is he faces someone in Randy Bryce who has caught the attention and captured the imagination of those who had been left behind, and lied to for years. Teflon may be a term used to describe Randy’s growing mass appeal. I prefer to describe it as authenticity. Thousands of Wisconsinites are gravitating to his message because they see themselves in it. When Ryan runs his 30 second spots trying to smear Randy and lie about himself, I don’t believe this massive Bryce coalition will buy it. As a former operative, Ryan understands that, and is clearly thinking of abandoning ship. We hope he runs because we are confident we’ll beat him.”

Question: Is Randy Bryce Winning Yet? Answer: Yep

Enjoy Randy Bryce on I Love America with Sarah Silverman above. I don't know how many people in southeast Wisconsin watch that show. Or Chelsea Handler's show. Or Pod Save America with former Obama aides Jon Favreau, Dan Pfeiffer, Jon Lovett and Tommy Vietor. All those appearances seemed like a big deal for Randy Bryce after he released his well-received introductory video that caused such excitement among national progressives. I know all the other candidates backed by Blue America would like those opportunities... would love those opportunities. But I'm not sure how much name recognition all of that has given Bryce in WI-01. Everyone there knows Paul Ryan-- who was first elected in 1998 and is basically on TV, as Speaker of the House, every single day. His name recognition is 92% and Bryce's is 21%.

Fortunately for Bryce, though, all that Paul Ryan name recognition that has served him so well for so long, is turning sour-- very, very sour. I got my hands on an internal campaign poll of WI-01 voters-- 30% Democrats, 31% Republicans and 39% independents), conducted by the Global Strategy Group. The bottom line is good: Bryce and Ryan are very close when the "if the election were held today" question is asked-- 46% Ryan/40% Bryce-- in the district and when a positive line is read about each one of them, Randy then goes on to beat Ryan-- 48% to 41%. [Please consider tapping on the ActBlue Stop Paul Ryan thermometer on the right and contributing what you can to help drive up Randy's name recognition.] These were the two statements read by the pollsters:

1- "Paul Ryan is a Republican and fifth-generation Wisconsin native who serves as Speaker of the House of Representatives. A committed conservative and public servant, Ryan has spent his life advocating for real solutions that will expand opportunity for all Americans."

2- "Randy Bryce is a US Army veteran, cancer survivor, and ironworker from Caledonia. He joined the race for Wisconsin’s 1st Congressional District because he’s frustrated with DC politicians who continue to put politics and party over people and wants to put the priorities of hardworking Americans first."

The poll shows that Ryan's favorability has dropped from 50% to 46% since August. His unfavorability has grown from 41% in August to 47%. Bryce, still basically little known, saw his favorability grow from 7% to 15% and his unfavorabilty grow from 3% to 6%. Voters still don't know who he is, although his name recognition has grown from 10% in August to 21% today, without running an ads on TV or radio. That should be changing early next year... after over a million and a half dollars in small donations to his campaign.

A little context from the poll: Trump's net approval/disapproval has gone from 42%/52% in August to 42%/53% today. And Ryan's own approval has fallen from 52% to 47%. Meanwhile, his disapproval has grown from 42% to 46%.

Then poll respondents were asked if each of these terms was a good description of Paul Ryan. The number next to each represents what percentage of voters agreed it was a good description of their incumbent congressman:

• Is part of the problem in Washington DC- 57%
• Focused on helping millionaires, billionaires, and wealthy corporations- 62%
• Too close to campaign donors and Washington special interests- 57%
• Out of touch- 54%
• Has changed for the worse during his time in office- 54%
• Focused on helping the middle class and working people- 49%
• Cares about people like you- 51%
• Focused on constituents in Southeastern Wisconsin- 48%

Ryan Doesn't Want To Talk About How Trump Swindled Us With 6 Bankruptcies-- He Wants To Castigate Randy Bryce For The Kind Of Medical Bankruptcy His Policies Create

Trump always denies his high-profile bankruptcies, half a dozen of which were front page headlines in New York and, of course, Atlantic City, over and over again. His denials, precursors of the lies that mark every day of his illegitimate presidency, were accepted at face value by the rubes in Wyoming, Oklahoma, West Virginia, Kentucky, North Dakota and Alabama. But his serial bankruptcies were all attempts to cheat his investors, contractors, the taxpayers, unions, the government and anyone else unfortunate enough to have been involved with him in any way. Newsweek:

Lost contracts, bankruptcies, defaults, deceptions and indifference to investors-- Trump’s business career is a long, long list of such troubles, according to regulatory, corporate and court records, as well as sworn testimony and government investigative reports. Call it the art of the bad deal, one created by the arrogance and recklessness of a businessman whose main talent is self-promotion.

He is also pretty good at self-deception, and plain old deception. Trump is willing to claim success even when it is not there, according to his own statements. “I’m just telling you, you wouldn’t say that you're failing,” he said in a 2007 deposition when asked to explain why he would give an upbeat assessment of his business even if it was in trouble. “If somebody said, ‘How you doing?’ you're going to say you're doing good.” Perhaps such dissembling is fine in polite cocktail party conversation, but in the business world it’s called lying.

...Trump boasted when he announced his candidacy last year that he had made his money “the old-fashioned way,” but he is no Bill Gates or Michael Bloomberg, self-made billionaires who were mavericks, innovators in their fields. Instead, the Republican nominee’s wealth is Daddy-made. Almost all of his best-known successes are attributable to family ties or money given to him by his father.

The son of wealthy developer Fred Trump, he went to work for his father’s real estate business immediately after graduating from Wharton and found some success by taking advantage of his father’s riches and close ties to the power brokers in the New York Democratic Party, particularly his decades-long friend Abe Beame, the former [very crooked] mayor of the city... Trump is rich because he was born rich-- and without his father repeatedly bailing him out, he would have likely filed for personal bankruptcy before he was 35.

According to court papers, Harrah’s spent $9.3 million promoting the Trump name, giving the New York developer a reputation in the casino business he’d never had before. And Harrah’s quickly learned the price—now, with Trump able to argue he knew casinos, financing opportunities that did not exist before opened up, and he was able to use Harrah’s promotion of him as a lever against the entertainment company. Soon after that first casino opened, Trump took advantage of his new credibility with financial backers interested in the gaming business to purchase the nearly completed Hilton Atlantic City Hotel for just $320 million; he renamed it Trump Castle. The business plan was ludicrous: Trump had not only doubled down his bet on Atlantic City casinos but was now operating two businesses in direct competition with each other. When Trump Castle opened in 1985, Harrah’s decided to ditch Trump and sold its interest in their joint venture to him for $220 million.

Still, he wanted more in Atlantic City-- specifically, the Taj Mahal, the largest casino complex ever, which Resorts International was building. This made the Casino Control Commission nervous because it could have meant that the financial security of Atlantic City would be riding on the back of one man. But Trump brushed those concerns aside at a February 1988 licensing hearing-- after all, his argument went, he was Donald Trump. He would contain costs, he said, because banks would be practically throwing money at him, and at prime rates. He would be on a solid financial foundation because the banks loved him so much, unlike lots of other companies and casinos that used below-investment-grade, high-interest junk bonds for their financing. “I’m talking about banking institutions, not these junk bonds, which are ridiculous,” he testified.

But Trump’s braggadocio proved empty. No financial institution gave him anything. Instead, he financed the deal with $675 million in junk bonds, agreeing to pay an astonishing 14 percent interest, about 50 percent more than he had projected. That pushed Trump’s total debt for his three casinos to $1.2 billion. For the renamed Trump Taj Mahal to break even, it would have to pull in as much as $1.3 million a day in revenue, more than any casino ever.

Disaster hit fast. As had been predicted by some Wall Street analysts, Trump’s voracious appetite cannibalized his other casinos-- it was as if Trump had tipped the Atlantic City boardwalk and slid all his customers at the Trump Castle and Trump Plaza down to the Taj. Revenues for the two smaller casinos plummeted a combined $58 million that first year.

Meanwhile, another Trump disaster was brewing. Eastern Air Lines, which had been struggling, put its northeastern air shuttle up for sale. Trump persuaded the banks to lend him $380 million to purchase the route, and in June 1989 the Trump Shuttle began flying.

Trump introduced the airline with his usual style-- by insulting the competition. At an elegant event at Logan Airport in Boston, Trump took the stage and suggested that the other airline with a northeastern shuttle, Pan Am, flew unsafe planes. Pan Am didn’t have enough cash, he said, and so it couldn’t spend as much as the Trump Shuttle on maintenance. “I’m not criticizing Pan Am,” Trump told the assembled crowd. “I’m just speaking facts.” But Trump offered no proof, and others in the airline industry seethed; talking about possible crashes was bad for everyone’s business.

He promised to transform his shuttle into a luxury service-- bathroom fixtures were colored gold, and the plane interiors were decked out with mahogany veneer. He was spending $1 million to update each of the planes, which were individually worth only $4 million. With those changes, he boasted, he would increase the shuttle’s market share from 55 to 75 percent.

But just like with casinos, Trump was in a business he knew nothing about. Customers on a one-hour flight from Washington to New York didn’t want luxury; they wanted reliability and competitive prices.

Trump Shuttle never turned a profit. But it didn’t have much of a chance; even as he was preening about his successes, Trump’s businesses were falling apart and would soon bring the shuttle crashing down with them.

At 1:40 p.m. on October 10, 1989, the four-blade rotor and tail rotor broke off of a helicopter flying above the pine woodlands near Forked River, New Jersey. The craft plunged 2,800 feet to the ground, killing all five passengers. Among them were three of Trump’s top casino executives.

With the best managers of his casinos dead, Trump for the first time took responsibility for running the day-to-day operations in Atlantic City. His mercurial and belligerent style made a quick impact-- some top executives walked, unwilling to put up with his eccentricities, while Trump booted others... By early 1990, as financial prospects at the casinos worsened, Trump began badmouthing the executives who had died, laying blame on them, although the cause of his problems was the precarious, debt-laden business structure he had built.

By June 1990, Trump was on the verge of missing a $43 million interest payment to the investors in the Taj’s junk bonds. Facing ruin, he met with his bankers, who had almost no recourse-- they had been as reckless as Trump. By lending him billions-- with loans for his real estate, his casinos, his airline and other businesses-- they could fail if Trump went down. So the banks agreed to lend him tens of millions more in exchange for Trump temporarily ceding control over his multibillion-dollar empire and accepting a budget of $450,000 a month for personal expenditures. In August, New Jersey regulators prepared a report totaling Trump’s debt at $3.4 billion, writing that “a complete financial collapse of the Trump Organization was not out of the question.”

In September, Trump informed his bankers that he would not be paying the $1.1 million in interest due and asked that they defer $245 million of future loan payments. Once again, the banks could do little but agree. The shuttle business was put up for sale, as was his $29 million yacht, the Trump Princess. (In 1992, Trump defaulted on his debt for the shuttle and turned it over to his creditor banks.)

By December, Trump was on the verge of missing an interest payment on the debt of Trump Castle, and there was no room left to maneuver with the banks this time. So, just as he had in the past, Trump turned to Dad for help, according to New Jersey state regulatory records. On December 17, 1990, Fred Trump handed a certified check for $3.35 million payable to the Trump Castle to his attorney, Howard Snyder. Snyder traveled to the Castle and opened an account in the name of Fred Trump. The check was deposited into that account and a blackjack dealer paid out $3.35 million to Snyder in gray $5,000 chips. Snyder put the chips in a small case and left; no gambling took place. The next day, a similar “loan” was made-- except by wire transfer rather than by check-- for an additional $150,000. This surreptitious, and unreported, loan allowed Donald Trump to make that interest payment. (The Castle later settled charges by the Casino Control Commission of violations from this escapade and paid a $65,000 fine.)

It didn’t matter-- Trump’s casino empire was doomed. A little more than a year after the opening of the Taj, that casino was in bankruptcy court, and was soon followed there by the Plaza and the Castle. Under the reorganization, Trump turned over half his interest in the businesses in exchange for lower rates of interest, as well as a deferral of payments and an agreement to wait at least five years before pursuing Trump for the personal guarantees he had made on some of the debt. The total debt remained huge, weighing down the reorganized company for years. In 2004, Trump Hotels & Casino Resorts-- the new name for Trump’s casino holdings-- filed for bankruptcy, and Trump was forced to relinquish his post as chief executive. The name of the company was then changed to Trump Entertainment Resorts; it filed for bankruptcy in 2009, four days after Trump resigned from the board.

In his books and public statements, Trump holds up this bankruptcy as yet more proof of his business genius; after all, his logic goes, he climbed out of a hole so deep few others could have done it. He even brags now about how deep that hole was. Trump falsely claimed in two of his books that he owed $9.2 billion, rather than the actual number, $3.4 billion, making his recovery seem far more impressive.

Yesterday, Paul Ryan's increasingly desperate reelection campaign decided to push out some opposition research about Randy Bryce once having declared bankruptcy when he was being treated for cancer without health insurance. Ryan learned the hard way what an @IronStahce response is:

I've been asked why I'm running for Congress several times on the campaign trail. The truth is, moving to Washington and becoming "Congressman Bryce" wasn't something on my bucket list. But I kept hearing stories from friends and neighbors about the pain and hardship that people were facing-- and these stories hit home because they were often circumstances I've experienced myself and have worked to overcome.

When people asked me to run against Paul Ryan, it was clear that those folks were looking for someone who understood what it was like to be a working person trying to make ends meet.

It's fair to say that working people are underrepresented in Congress-- Paul Ryan certainly doesn't understand what it's like to live paycheck to paycheck, to have to choose between food and paying your bills, or to literally be faced with life and death decisions with no health insurance.

But I do understand. I've survived some really awful times, and it's time there's someone in Congress who knows what everyday people are going through.

I know what it's like to work 100 hours a week, doing hard, manual labor-- because I've done it.

I know the fear and uncertainty of having a serious disease-- cancer-- and no health insurance. Because I have been there.

I know what it's like to be fighting for your life while watching your world crumble around you. Because 17 years ago I had to file for bankruptcy when my mounting medical bills and other debt became too much to bear.

I know what people are facing, and that's exactly why I jumped into this race.

Sadly, my story is not unique. Thousands of people across Wisconsin have experienced the same soul-crushing decision to file for bankruptcy. It's just wrong. I was very lucky to be able to resolve my case over a few years, but not everyone is that fortunate. As a veteran, I know some of the hardest hit by this crisis are the brave men and women who have served our country only to have the system turn its back on them. It's gone on too long, and it's not something I will stand by and continue to watch.

I know what it's like to look your child in the eyes and have to explain that your job has changed and times were going to be tight for a while. I had to do it, and I fell behind on my child support payments.

Thankfully, my son's mom and I were able to work together, putting our son first, and we made a plan to ensure all his needs were met in the fastest way possible. But kids shouldn't suffer because parents fall on hard times. We have to do better, and I believe we can.

It breaks my heart that these stories are as common as they are, right here in Southeastern Wisconsin and across the country. It's scary being in these situations. You're a nervous wreck, you're ashamed you can't protect and take care of your family, and you don't know how you're going to claw your way back. Like so many people, I can say that I've had to borrow money from friends and family in tough times, and been grateful for the grace of being able to pay them back when I could.

That's the thing about working families-- we know how to work together and lift each other up. It's that sense of shared community that I want to bring to Congress.

Working people and families are facing tough times like this all over the country, and now Republicans are trying to give millionaires and billionaires more tax cuts while telling us that we can't pay for education or Medicare for All, or anything else that would help families struggling to make ends meet.

The Republican attack machine is in full gear, obviously spreading my record around to hit me for having the same economic problems that millions of people struggle with every single day. That's ok-- I've survived much worse. I'm grateful to have come out on the other side of some incredibly hard times-- but I know many, many more have not been so lucky. Part of the reason is that the system is rigged against them, and it's time for that game to stop.

While I'm not perfect, I can promise that I will do everything in my power and work every single day to ensure we start looking out for the 99%, instead of the wealthy few.

I know I've asked before, but please consider contributing to Randy's congressional campaign, because, together, we can repeal that dead-eyed, baby-starving muthafucker Paul Ryan and put one of us in Congress in his place. Just tap on the ActBlue Stop Paul Ryan thermometer on the right and think about how much you love our country... and give what you can. Defeating Paul Ryan at the polls will be like driving a silver spike through the heart of the Republican Party vampire... at least the one on the loose in southeastern Wisconsin. And it will be a clear message for the other baby-starving muthafuckers from sea to shining sea. Paul Ryan is the worst of what they throw at us. Let's not miss this chance to throw him back in their faces. Thanks.