Ryan Can't Save The GOP-- Can He Save His Own Political Future?

Truth-telling counts for nothing at all in DC; it's all about working within a narrative, positioning, marketing. When he announced he was bailing, Paul Ryan looked into the camera and, as he so often does, lied. He said he's certain the Republicans would hold the House majority. Quite the contrary-- like most Republicans who have lost their facility for political thought, Ryan knows there is virtually no chance the Republicans won't be a shriveled minority in 2019.

And only Inside the Beltway are people still talking about a close election-- like 25 lost seats. one being in southeast Wisconsin. The Republicans have lost the independents. They can't win in swing districts; they can't even win in districts that lean Republican. All the savvy non-Beltway political pros are betting they'll lose between 50 and 75 seats. Some say 80. And the most daring say if the DCCC would just sit still and stop interfering, Democrats could take close to 100 seats.

Former NRCC chairman Tom Davis of Virginia is a straight shooter. He told Roll Call that Ryan's retirement is "reminiscent of the rats leaving the ship, you know? The model for Gingrich, the model for Hastert, is you run for re-election and then you resign because you’re urging members to run and you run yourself. Paul has certainly earned the right to retire… But as the team leader-- you don’t want the captain leaving the ship." Immediately after Ryan announced he's leaving, Dennis Ross (R-FL) announced he was jumping ship as well.

Name a category of bribe givers to Congress. Almost every single one finds Ryan as the top recipient of their bribes. Wall Street-- Paul Ryan. Lawyers and lobbyists-- Paul Ryan. The health industry-- Paul Ryan. Energy and Natural Resources-- Paul Ryan. Construction-- Paul Ryan. Transportation-- Paul Ryan. Gun rights-- Paul Ryan. Hedge Funds-- Paul Ryan. Natural gas pipelines-- Paul Ryan. Retired-- Paul Ryan. Republicans need all that loot. And Ryan doesn't want to panic more of them into retiring. So he's lying about it.

House Republicans’ most prolific fundraiser is vowing to continue to do all he can to help them keep the majority in the midterms.

But Speaker Paul D. Ryan’s announcement Wednesday that he doesn’t want to be a part of that majority next year has only crystalized the perception that the House GOP is in for a drubbing in November.

“It’s over,” one GOP operative who’s worked on House and Senate races said... The short-term symbolism of Ryan’s retirement is a concern, but for most GOP campaign consultants, the biggest political impact of his departure will be what it does to fundraising for 2018 and beyond.

Vulnerable Republicans on Wednesday applauded Ryan’s decision to spend more time with his family and mostly shrugged off questions about whether this would cause more of them to retire.

“Actually, after two weeks at home, I feel really positive and encouraged,” said New York Rep. John J. Faso, one of the party’s most vulnerable members.

The filing deadline for New York is Thursday. Filing deadlines for other states, including Michigan, Florida, Kansas, Wisconsin and Minnesota, are coming up later this spring, so more members from those states could  choose to call it quits... Some Republicans see a certain incongruence in a leader asking imperiled members to run for re-election when he doesn’t even want to stick around.

GOP operatives largely agreed that Ryan’s departure won’t change the politics of 2018, when it comes to what issues are litigated at the ballot box.

Fundraising, on the other hand, is a different matter.

“The timing and execution of this decision is terrible,” one GOP operative who works on House races said in an email.

“There doesn’t appear to be any real transition plan, nor should we expect donors who were committed to helping the Speaker continue to be as engaged as they would have been. It is going to severely impact fundraising for members, candidates, the NRCC and outside groups,” he wrote.

Ohio Rep. Steve Stivers, who chairs the National Republican Congressional Committee, predicted that Ryan will continue to be the House GOP’s biggest fundraiser through the end of the year.

“He tells me he’s going to keep fundraising,” Stivers said off the House floor Wednesday. “And he believes the people he talks to and his supporters will stay with him and help us.”

Team Ryan, the speaker’s political operation, will continue to raise funds for Ryan’s leadership PAC and the NRCC. Ryan has transferred more than $40 million to the NRCC this cycle. He also told GOP lawmakers Wednesday morning that he raised nearly $6 million during the two-week recess, according to three members who attended the conference meeting where he informed them of his decision to retire. His campaign committee will refund general contributions as required by law.

Several Republicans suggested that Ryan’s retirement could actually free him up to do even more campaigning and fundraising on behalf of members and candidates around the country this year.

But even if he continues to rake in the cash for 2018, there are still concerns about what comes after that. The biggest political hit, one GOP strategist said, will be to candidates and campaign committees in 2020.

“Leaders and members are going to have to step up next cycle to fill that void, which is easier said than done,” the strategist said, adding that Ryan had unique appeal across a wide swath of the party.

“His conservative fiscal beliefs play really well to Freedom Caucus donor types but also his pragmatic approach appeals to New York City donors,” the strategist said. “Depending on who takes his place, those are not easy audiences to appease at the same time.”

Democrats had already been making Ryan into a boogeyman this cycle.

Patriot Majority USA has released polling showing the speaker with job performance numbers worse than Trump’s in many districts Democrats are targeting.

“Saying ‘I’m going to vote for Paul Ryan’ wasn’t necessarily a plus in a swing district,” said Davis, a former NRCC chairman. “Nothing wrong with Paul, it’s just the nature of leaders.”

House Majority PAC, the major super PAC helping Democrats’ efforts to retake the House, has made Ryan the subject of much of its paid communication so far this cycle, releasing a national TV ad attacking him last month and running digital ads in targeted districts around the country tying Republicans to his agenda.

That message isn’t going away. “Even without Ryan on the ballot in Wisconsin this November, make no mistake-- Ryan’s agenda is going to be on the ballot in every district in the country,” House Majority PAC executive director Charlie Kelly said in a statement Wednesday.

Republicans, of course, are still banking on House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi being unpopular around the country.

Although their numbers are comparable, polls show that Ryan is less popular in virtually every swing district. If he still wants to run for president someday-- and he does-- he needs to not be defeated by a union construction worker, he needs to not be seen as captain steering a ship that went to the bottom, and he needs to get away from the Trump shit-show.

Paul Ryan Runs Away

Because Blue America has spent years trying to defeat Paul Ryan, about a year ago we got two consecutive call, one from former Ryan opponent and one from state Senator Chis Larson, asking me to call a very politicized progressive union iron worker in Racine County and help persuade him to run against Ryan. The Wisconsin Working Families Party had already done the heavy lift and they just needed me to push Randy Bryce over the edge. It was a pleasure talking with him over the phone; he was a Bernie guy who had the right answer on every single question. In introduced him to two political operatives who could bring his vision to reality-- Bill Hyers, the guy who made that first video, and David Keith, the guy Randy hired as campaign manager. (Alan Grayson this morning: "David beats Goliath.")

Bryce made it clear he wasn't dependent on the DCCC, that he and his team were running an independent campaign without the establishment interference. And he caught on like wild fire while the DCCC sat around scratching its ass and wondering if they could bottle whatever Bryce was doing. They could ask Jared Golden, the whip of the Maine state legislature and a candidate for Congress very much like Bryce. "I think this confirms that when Democrats put forward strong working class candidates, like Randy Bryce and myself, who have served our country in the military and who have a record of fighting for workers and labor, GOP incumbents like Paul Ryan and Bruce Poliquin are in trouble and they know it."

Paul Ryan and Bruce Poliquin have been working together in the House since 2015, and in that time they've added trillions to our national debt, given mega tax cuts to the super rich donors who prop up their campaigns, and tried to take healthcare from millions of Americans. And they've had so much fun, doing it together...

Or take it from another veteran and working class candidate, DuWayne Gregory, executive of the Suffolk Count legislature, the progressive running for Peter King's seat. "Paul Ryan’s retirement is the biggest signal to date that the blue wave is coming. But it will take more to move more entrenched establishment type likes Peter King out of office. Rumors are he wants to 'pass on' the 2nd Congressional District seat to his daughter as some type heirloom. I’m working as hard as I can to make sure that plan doesn’t happen and this district has a representative interested in serving the people not his own personal interests."

Yeah, because-- as we've been predicting for 2 months-- Ryan pulled out of the race today. No one's going to get the pleasure of watching Bryce beat him on election night in November. Although everyone-- except maybe Beltway types-- knows Bryce already won-- scaring the 48 year old Ryan into a premature retirement. Moments after Ryan's announcement this morning that he's not seeking reelection Bryce's campaign released the following statement. 

Paul Ryan decided to quit today rather than face Randy Bryce and the voters. With nearly $5 million raised to date, a strong field program aided by organized labor, a broad coalition of support locally and nationally,  Randy Bryce is incredibly well positioned to be the next representative for the First District. Electorates far more conservative than Wisconsin's First have already elected Democrats in special elections in Wisconsin and across the country.

WI-01 is far less conservative than many districts that have already turned blue, in and outside of Wisconsin, this year. PA-18 went to Trump by nearly 20 points and it's rated by the Cook Political Report as an R+11 district. WI-01 is rated R+5 and Trump won the district by just 10 points. Senate District 10 in Wisconsin, which went to Trump by 17 points, also flipped blue in a special election in January of this year.

The Bryce campaign has organized a robust, grassroots campaign. Randy has raised $4.75 million to date, with 75 percent of those donations coming in small-dollar increments of $200 or less. That support allowed the campaign to begin airing TV ads in the district at the beginning of March, so voters are already becoming familiar with Randy's story.  The campaign is also building a strong grassroots field program. Over 140 county captains have already been trained to serve as volunteer leaders in their areas.

Even earlier this morning campaign manager David Keith sent out his own note:

After 20 years in Congress rewarding billionaires like Charles and David Koch, Paul Ryan took one look at Randy Bryce and this campaign and is throwing in the towel.

Think about that for a moment. The most powerful Republican in Congress is retiring because he's too scared of Randy Bryce and the hundreds of thousands of working people who have built this campaign.

When ordinary people work together, we can do the extraordinary.

Now it's on us to send a U.S. Army veteran, cancer survivor, and union ironworker with one heck of a mustache to fight for working people in D.C.

...[O]ne of the Republicans running in Wisconsin's 1st Congressional District is an actual neo-Nazi.

I'd like to say he's unelectable, but look at who is in the White House. So, we can't take anything for granted. There's still time for Paul Ryan to get one of his rich buddies to run. And don't forget, this district has more registered Republicans than Democrats.

We still need to build this campaign and be ready for whatever comes next.

The little campaign that could! They chased Paul Ryan right out of Congress. Soon he'll be bumping into Steny Hoyer on K Street. Yesterday Axios was one of the first to ring the bell: "One of Washington’s best-wired Republicans said: 'This is a Titanic, tectonic shift. … This is going to make every Republican donor believe the House can’t be held.' The announcement will help Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) in his fundraising because 'the Senate becomes the last bastion,' the Republican said." Yeah, it will also help Democratic candidates all over the country. Keith Ellison a few hours ago: "Speaker of the House Paul Ryan announced today that he will not seek reelection this November. After leading the charge to pass the historically unpopular GOP Tax Scam, targeting Medicaid, Medicare, and Social Security for huge cuts to pay for it, and enabling Donald Trump’s divisive agenda, he sees the writing on the wall. Americans are fed up, and even the GOP Speaker of the House recognizes that our momentum is real. This is the clearest sign yet that we’re on the right track to win majorities in Congress this November, and now we just need to keep the pressure on."

The Fallout Begins

Insiders expect a flood of mainstream congressional Republicans to run for the exits now. The first out after Ryan was Dennis Ross (FL-15), minutes after Ryan's announcement. His central Florida district runs from Brandon and the suburbs east of Tampa north through Lakeland up to Groveland and beyond past Florida's Turnpike. Obama lost the district both time, Trump won by 10 points and the PVI is R+6. There were half a dozen Democrats competing for the nomination, though none of them have raised the kind of money it would take to make the district competitive. Ross' excuse for backing out was "Eight years takes its toll on you. When you feel like a stranger in your hometown, it’s time to say, 'There’s got to be an exit strategy at some point.'" And here's Paul Ryan's worthless, embarrassing bullshit from this morning is in the video below.

One Republican congressman-- feeling the angst-- told right wing propagandist Erick Erickson at a Safeway-- on condition of anonymity-- that "it's like Forrest Gump won the presidency, but an evil, really fucking stupid Forrest Gump. He can't help himself. He's just a fucking idiot who thinks he's winning when people are bitching about him. He really does see the world as ratings and attention... But dammit he's taking us all down with him. We are well and truly fucked in November. Kevin [McCarthy] is already circling like a green fly circling shit trying to take Paul's [Ryan] job... [Lord's name in vain], at least I'll probably lose too and won't have to put up with that shit... Judiciary is stacked with a bunch of people who can win re-election so long as they don't piss off Trump voters in the primary. But if we get to summer and most of the primaries are over, they just might pull the trigger if the President fires Mueller. The shit will hit the fan if that happens and I'd vote to impeach him myself. Most of us would, I think. Hell, all the Democrats would and you only need a majority in the House. If we're going to lose because of him, we might as well impeach the motherfucker. Take him out with us and let Mike [Pence] take over. At least then we could sleep well at night."

Unfortunately, not all defective Republicans are retiring. McCarthy and Scalise are already battling over the speakership and, less blatantly, Mark Meadows is making a play for the neo-fascist vote in that battle. He most have been happy to hear that Virginia Foxx won't be retiring. We asked her progressive opponent, Jenny Marshall, if there's any chance Foxx would follow Ryan out the door. No good news on that front: "Virginia Foxx has stated recently that she has no intention of retiring from Congress even with vast majority of people in our district wishing she would. I have spoken with many Republicans who would like to see someone new take her seat. They, along with the Democrats and unaffiliated voters who do not subscribe to her narrow view of the world want a representative who actually represents them and their communities. Virginia Foxx is bought and paid for and we all know it. It's time for a change-- whether she thinks so or not."

 


UPDATE: Ryan's Legacy-- POS

This evening New Hampshire congresswoman Carol Shea-Porter tweeted the naked truth about Ryan and his cowardly decision to retire: "Good riddance to Paul Ryan, the most overrated fraud in American politics." Lawrence O'Donnell was as savage on his MSNBC show. Before either of them, though, Ronald Brownstein eviscerated what was left of Ryan's reputation, noting that The outgoing House speaker, more than any other lawmaker, paved the path for congressional Republicans’ subjugation to the president and that he personifies the Devil's Bargain the GOP struck with Trump.

Paul Ryan... will leave Washington carrying a more tarnished legacy-- as the most important enabler of Donald Trump.

No one in the GOP was better equipped, by position and disposition alike, to resist Trump’s racially infused, insular nationalism, or to define a more inclusive competing vision for the party. Instead, Ryan chose to tolerate both Trump’s personal excesses and his racially polarizing words and deeds as the price worth paying to advance Ryan’s own top priorities: cutting spending; regulations; and above all, taxes. The result was that Ryan, more than any other prominent Republican, personified the devil’s bargain the GOP has signed with Trump. And his departure crystallizes the difficult choices Republicans face as Trump redefines the party in his belligerent image.

...[A]fter Trump took office, Ryan blinked at confronting the president’s appeals to white racial resentments. Pressed for reaction to comments like Trump’s reported description of African nations as “shithole” countries, Ryan managed to mumble the bare minimum of plausible criticism: “The first thing that came to my mind was very unfortunate, unhelpful.” For most people genuinely distressed by Trump’s remarks, “unfortunate” and “unhelpful” were probably not the first words that came to mind; “racist” and “xenophobic” were.

Even more consequential was Ryan’s refusal to challenge Trump on behalf of the young undocumented immigrants included in former President Barack Obama’s Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals program. Though the speaker repeatedly promised the “Dreamers” that Congress would protect them, he has allowed the legislation that would have preserved their legal status to wither, after Trump and House Republican hardliners insisted on linking it to poison-pill provisions that would slash legal immigration.

...The result of all this inaction has been the transformation of the GOP majorities into the see-no-evil Congress, with rank-and-file Republicans and their leaders repeating the same mantra: Move along folks, there’s nothing to see here... Ryan more than any other Republican paved the path for this subjugation to Trump-- if only because he provided the most viable rallying point for an alternative, optimistic, inclusive vision and yet chose to submit. He leaves the party lashed to a volatile, impulsive leader who is systematically stamping it as a vehicle for white racial resentment, even as the nation grows kaleidoscopically more diverse.

The former head of the NRCC, Tom Davis of Virginia, pointed out that "Ryan's exit is a destabilizing blow to Republicans’ 2018 plans on nearly every front" and that "I don’t know what he was thinking. I think this was a huge miscalculation. I think this is the captain abandoning the sinking ship."

More And More Republicans Are Running For The Exits-- Not For Reelection

I liked Deirdre Shesgreen's style at a USAToday piece this week, House Republicans are retiring in droves. What's pushing them out?. Great line to describe congressional Republicans in the Trump Era: "Forget running for re-election. House Republicans are running for the exits instead." [I wonder if Señor Trumpanzee thinks he can appoint Kushner-in-law to full all of those congressional seats. A congressional GOP staffer told me his knowledge of how the American government works has increased over the last year from that of a third grader to that of a fifth grader. "Paul," in reference to Speaker Ryan, "is tutoring him," he told me with a straight face.]

Not counting the Republicans forced out by scandal-- Tim Murphy (PA), Trent Franks (AZ), Blake Farenthold (TX) , Joe Barton (TX) and Pat Meehan (PA) and the ones who left for jobs in Trumpville or to take other jobs of run for senator-- Evan Jenkins (WV), Lou Barletta (PA), Jim Renacci (OH), Luke Messer (IN), Todd Rokita (IN), Martha McSally (AZ), Marsha Blackburn (TN) or governor-- Diane Black (TN), Steve Pearce (NM), Ron DeSantis (FL), Kristi Noem (SD), Raul Labrador(ID)-- there are 19 Republicans heading for the hills, including 9 committee chairs (asterisks):

• Trey Gowdy* (SC)
• Bill Shuster* (PA)
• Bob Goodlatte* (VA)
• Rodney Frelinghuysen* (NJ)
• Lamar Smith* (TX)
• Ed Royce* (CA)
• Gregg Harper* (MS)
• Jeb Hensarling* (TX)
• Sam Johnson* (TX)
• Charlie Dent (PA
• Darrell Issa (CA)
• Dave Reichert (WA)
• Dave Trott (MI)
• Lynn Jenkins (KS)
• Ted Poe (TX)
• Jim Bridenstine (OK)
• John Duncan (TN)
• Ileana Ros-Lehtnen (FL)
• Frank LoBiondo (NJ)

Don't let the door hit you in the ass on the way out.



Shesgreen wrote that "all told, 41 Republican House members have said they will either retire or seek another office"-- almost 4 times the number of Democrats... and it's not all members who got caught screwing their staffers. "[N]ine are influential committee chairmen who, like Gowdy, are leaving with no scandal afoot. So what’s pushing these gavel-wielding lawmakers out the House door?"

A toxic stew of congressional dysfunction, perilous electoral prospects, term limits on committee chairmen and an increasingly rightward tilting party with a president widely seen as erratic at its helm.

“Washington’s not a very pleasant place for anybody,” said former representative Tom Davis, a Virginia Republican who retired in 2008 after 14 years in the House. “The polarization and all the gamesmanship” can be grinding, Davis said, and the rewards aren’t very sweet these days.

“The public hates you,” he said. “It doesn’t mean you don’t get re-elected, but you’re not getting great outcomes.”

Just look at Congress’ legislative plate right now: a spending standoff that threatens a second government shutdown in a matter of weeks, an explosive immigration debate with no clear solution and a presidential infrastructure proposal that appears dead on arrival.

Another helping, anyone?

“There is a time to come and a time to go,” Gowdy tweeted Wednesday. The former federal prosecutor said he wanted to leave politics and return to the justice system.

“Whatever skills I may have are better utilized in a courtroom than in Congress, and I enjoy our justice system more than our political system,” he said in a statement.

Gowdy’s announcement came on the heels of two others: Pennsylvania Republican Rep. Pat Meehan  said he would not run for re-election last week after news emerged that a former aide had accused him of sexual harassment. And on Monday, New Jersey Republican Rep. Rodney Frelinghuysen announced that he would also retire rather than seek another term in November. Frelinghuysen last year became chairman of the House Appropriations Committee, once considered the most powerful perch in Congress.

But with earmarks banned-- making it nearly impossible to bring home pet projects or use the promise of them as leverage in negotiations-- and spending bills mired in the legislative mud, the committee has lost some of its luster. And Frelinghuysen’s decision was at least in part a nod to the electoral landscape.

Democrats are hoping to ride a wave of anti-Trump anger to regain the House majority in November. Frelinghuysen would have faced a tough re-election in his swing New Jersey district, where several Democrats were already lining up to challenge him.

The party that controls the White House generally loses seats in the midterm elections, and several nonpartisan political analysts believe that President Trump’s dismal approval ratings will be a significant added drag on Republican congressional candidates.

David Wasserman, a political analyst with the non-partisan Cook Political Report, said a wave election dissent may already be forming, giving lawmakers a heads up to get out of the way.

“In past cycles when the House has changed parities, members haven’t seen it coming until a couple months out,” Wasserman said. “The difference is now Republicans have a choice between filing for re-election or retiring or running for other office. And many of them are deciding that it’s not worth trying to ride this out.”

Even those in safe House seats aren’t sure they want to stay in office if it means being in the minority, Wasserman said. In the House, the minority has almost no power to influence legislation or set the agenda.

Davis agreed and said some Republicans have become “uncomfortable” with the party, as it has shifted rightward and now is led by Trump.

“This is not the party that they grew up with,” Davis said. “The Republican base had kind of rotated from the country club to the country.”

Jesse Hunt, a spokesman for the House Republican campaign committee, rejected the suggestion that Republicans were leaving because their party was about to be out of power.

“The vast majority of retirements are term-limited chairmen who hail from deeply Republican districts,” Hunt said. [Trump has made lying fashionable in the GOP. 9 is not the vast majority of 41.]

In the House, Republicans operate under rules that limit committee chairman to six years no matter how long they serve in Congress. Wasserman and others agree that dynamic is playing a role in driving even powerful and safely ensconced lawmakers out.

“Many members spend years in Congress climbing up the ranks to become a committee chair, but if you’re termed out after a couple cycles, you can suddenly find yourself with less power,” said Wasserman. “Upward mobility is essential to many members.”

Davis said that rule was imposed in the 1990s because committee chairman had become too powerful. But it inadvertently made congressional leaders too powerful, and the legislative process has suffered as a result.

Add the gridlock and partisanship, Davis said, and the job just isn’t appealing anymore.

“You wait, sitting around all day, waiting for the deal and then I vote yes or no. That’s it,” he said. “That’s why I left. You look at this and you say, 'Geez, what am I doing here?'"

Devin Nunes is not retiring. Neither is, for example, Matt Gaetz (R-FL), another unaccomplished crackpot. That's what we're going to be stuck with when all the mainstream conservatives leave: Nunes and Gaetz-- and that really will be the end of the United States of America. And Putin will have won... entirely. Right-wing former congressman, Joe Walsh (R-IL): "The Nunes I knew was a purely partisan animal. When it comes to exercising good judgment and discharging his duties in service of the Constitution, he’s just not up to the task... My former colleague doesn't seem to grasp what his job in Congress is." Jimmy Kimmel had a perspective on this last night, at least on the Nunes part.



I was in Germany visiting the Warner affiliate there. The greatest boxer in the country, Henry Maske, was retiring and Andrea Bocelli and Sarah Brightman performed "Time To Say Goodbye" at his last fight. OK, the song went to #1 and started selling like hotcakes... but that doesn't even give you more than a clue about what happened. How about this? The biggest-selling song in the history of Belgium? Within 2 months of the match the song broke the all-time sales record in Germany and was eventually certified 11 times platinum. It quickly went to #1 in Switzerland, Austria, France and Ireland. Anyway, our German company offered it to me (free) for the U.S. I brought it back to Warner Bros and the promotion department and A&R department all gave it a thumbs down. I thought they were crazy, but they said Americans would never listen to something so strange-- foreign languages, opera... German boxer. I went on KSCA, a triple A station near my office (where Nicole Sandler was working), and did a guest slot for a couple of hours. I started the show with "Time To Say Goodbye." The rest of the show was people calling up and asking me to play it again, some of them tearfully. By the very end of the show they were still calling. I did play it at the end of the show. Here it is-- for Paul Ryan, who is trying to decide when he'll announce that he's headed for the hills as well. (Oh-- and my promotion department was technically correct. Another company put it out and had only moderate success with it, although Donna Summer covered stand it hit #1 on the dance charts. It was also used on Madagascar 3 and was sung on several episodes of America's Got Talent, several times on The Sopranos and once each on Sesame Street and The Simpsons. Also Mixed Martial Arts fighter Yoshihiro Akiyama uses the song as his entrance music.

Years later I was flying to Europe and some guy was singing behind me late at night when I was trying to sleep. I called the attendant over to shut him up. And, yes, it was Andrea Bocelli.

Is Paul Ryan Leaving Congress?

I'm looking at internal polling and results of focus groups and there just is no way Ryan can run in WI-01 in 2018. This district is about 30% Republican and 30% Democrat and 40% independent. In the last few elections the independents have come down-- slightly-- on the GOP side. That isn't how they feel now. They don't like Trump and they see Ryan as an enabler. Huge numbers of them are closed to even listening to his message. If Ryan wants to run for president some day-- and he does-- he can't be beaten in his home district by a union iron worker. Yesterday Brent Budowsky, writing for The Hill, predicted Ryan won't run. He expects Ryan to announce his retirement from Congress but that he's "holding back the announcement to avoid House Republicans being devastated by yet another congressional Republican joining the rush to retirement that plagues the GOP today."

Speaker Ryan owes it to his constituents in Wisconsin to make a declarative statement, one way or the other, to make it clear whether he is running or retiring.

Ryan can disprove my prediction that he will not run by making an unequivocal statement about his intentions in 2018. If he does, I will return to this page and humbly admit that this prediction was proven wrong.

Throughout the corridors of the capitol in official Washington, the possibility of a Ryan retirement is generating far more buzz than the media is reporting today.

If Ryan does retire, there will be a huge battle between different GOP factions regarding who should succeed him as speaker. Different groups, from the House Freedom Caucus to more traditional Republicans, are positioning themselves behind the scenes for what would be an epic succession battle.

Ryan would have good reasons to retire, if that is his decision. House Republicans are on the defensive politically. There is a better-than-even chance that Democrats regain control of the House in the midterm elections, which is a major reason why so many House Republicans are announcing their retirement in the first place.

There is widespread speculation that Ryan could run for president in some future election. If he does, he would be a credible candidate. He performed well as the vice-presidential nominee running with Mitt Romney in 2012.

Ryan’s longer-term political problem is that he has chosen to be one of the leading Trump Republicans in national politics, fervently supporting Trump’s legislative agenda and supporting or tolerating the faction of House Republicans who are attacking Robert Mueller, his special counsel team and the FBI. The tighter Ryan is tied to the highly unpopular Trump, the lower the chances he is someday elected president.

Ryan’s short-term problem is far more severe. If Democrats win control of the House in 2018, the House will not be a hospitable place for Ryan and House Republicans, who have spent recent years treating Congress as a one-party Republican state that is widely seen as a bastion of intense support for Trump.

Even worse from Ryan’s point of view, if Democrats gain a significant number of seats in 2018, which is virtually certain, Ryan will find the House ungovernable for Republicans.

If Ryan spends the rest of the current legislative year sabotaging support for the "Dreamers," as one major Republican faction wants him to do, and launching a new attack against highly popular programs, such as Medicare and Social Security, the strong prospect for Democrats regaining control could become a tidal wave leading to a Democratic mega-landslide.

Having spent a half-life working for Democratic leaders in Congress, if Speaker Ryan asked my advice, which he certainly will not, it would be for him to announce he is getting out now.

He will neither enjoy nor politically benefit from the gathering storm that is facing House Republicans today and appears destined to become even worse. This is not conducive to the most happy family or professional life.

If Ryan announces he is retiring this year, the news would be devastating for House Republicans, but the longer he waits, the closer the news gets to the midterm voting, and news of Ryan retiring will create even more catastrophic damage for the GOP.

Whether he chooses to run or not, Ryan owes it to his constituents, his party and the nation to announce his intention to run for re-election and promise to serve a full term, or to promptly announce his days in the House are soon coming to an end.

I predict he leaves. Time will tell.

There's a lot of chatter going on about who the Republican candidate in southeast Wisconsin will be when Ryan retires. Some people were speculating it would be Reince Priebus but the party establishment seems to be settling in on the controversial Robin Vos, owner of RoJo's Popcorn and the ALEC-owned Assembly Speaker.

David Keith, Bryce's campaign manager, who is back from Thailand where he was attacked by a monkey that broke his shoulder and fractured several toes, is looking forward to taking on Ryan but vows to not let him do what the monkey did. "Ryan faces a problem he hasn’t faced yet in his Congressional career," he told us this morning. "He has a problem money can’t fix. He has relied on his war chest to allow him to run absurd amounts of advertising to relatively uninformed voters to create the image of him as a good guy. People often tell me Ryan used to be the 'aww shucks' kind of guy, whatever that means. That was the image money bought him apparently. The problem for him now is he faces someone in Randy Bryce who has caught the attention and captured the imagination of those who had been left behind, and lied to for years. Teflon may be a term used to describe Randy’s growing mass appeal. I prefer to describe it as authenticity. Thousands of Wisconsinites are gravitating to his message because they see themselves in it. When Ryan runs his 30 second spots trying to smear Randy and lie about himself, I don’t believe this massive Bryce coalition will buy it. As a former operative, Ryan understands that, and is clearly thinking of abandoning ship. We hope he runs because we are confident we’ll beat him.”

Odious Wisconsin Granny Starver Retiring-- Too Late For GOP Incumbents Bracing For A Tsunami?

Every Beltway insider who read the DWT predictions for the last couple of months-- once I started seeing the WI-01 internal polling numbers-- that Ryan would retire, rolled their eyes. Then, today, Tim Alberta and Rachel Bade went with the story at Politico-Pro: Paul Ryan Sees His Wild Washington Journey Coming To An End.

Last night I was at a fundraiser here in L.A. for Kaniela Ing. Kaniela told his life story and how that story turned him into a progressive. While he was telling it-- he came from a modest background and his father passed away when he was young and he was dependent on a then-strong social safety net to make it and, in his case, escape from the pineapple fields. Except for the part about the pineapple fields--and the conclusion-- it's almost the same as Paul Ryan's life story. But Kaniela internalized the struggle and decided to devote his career to helping others struggling the same way he ands family struggled. Ryan took a different approach, working tirelessly, after reading and internalizing Ayn Rand's simplistic adolescent novels, to pull up the ladder behind him and shred the social safety net that helped him escape from poverty.

Ryan's Tax Scam was carefully written to eventually end what's left of the New Deal and completely shred what remains of the social safety net, which, he has said many times, makes people lazy. Alberta and Bade were more generous about how they phrased it: "Having spent a quarter-century in Washington-- as an intern, waiter, junior think-tanker, Hill staffer and, since 1999, as a member of Congress-- he had never wavered in his obsession with fixing what he viewed as the nation’s two fundamental weaknesses: its Byzantine tax system and ballooning entitlement state... The speaker has since gone public with this aspiration, suggesting that 2018 should be the year Washington finally tackles what he sees as the systemic problems with Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid."

Tinkering with the social safety net is a bold undertaking, particularly in an election year. But Ryan has good reason for throwing caution to the wind: His time in Congress is running short.

Despite several landmark legislative wins this year, and a better-than-expected relationship with President Donald Trump, Ryan has made it known to some of his closest confidants that this will be his final term as speaker. He consults a small crew of family, friends and staff for career advice, and is always cautious not to telegraph his political maneuvers. But the expectation of his impending departure has escaped the hushed confines of Ryan’s inner circle and permeated the upper-most echelons of the GOP. In recent interviews with three dozen people who know the speaker-- fellow lawmakers, congressional and administration aides, conservative intellectuals and Republican lobbyists-- not a single person believed Ryan will stay in Congress past 2018.

...He would like to serve through Election Day 2018 and retire ahead of the next Congress. This would give Ryan a final legislative year to chase his second white whale, entitlement reform, while using his unrivaled fundraising prowess to help protect the House majority-- all with the benefit of averting an ugly internecine power struggle during election season. Ryan has never loved the job; he oozes aggravation when discussing intra-party debates over “micro-tactics," and friends say he feels like he’s running a daycare center. On a personal level, going home at the end of next year would allow Ryan, who turns 48 next month, to keep promises to family; his three children are in or entering their teenage years, and Ryan, whose father died at 55, wants desperately to live at home with them full-time before they begin flying the nest. The best part of this scenario, people close to the speaker emphasize: He wouldn’t have to share the ballot with Trump again in 2020.

The bad news for House Republicans is that Ryan is even less popular among voters than Trump and having him leading the House Republicans into the midterms is likely to be catastrophic. Sunday, we ran this polling data showing Ryan's approval/disapproval numbers in key congressional districts around the country:

• VA-10 (Barbara Comstock)- 20/71%
• PA-06 (Ryan Costello)- 21/70%
• WA-08 (Dave Reichert)- 20/67%
• AZ-02 (Martha McSally)- 23/65%
• IA-03 (David Young)- 24/65%
• MI-11 (Dave Trott)- 22/65%
• CO-06 (Mike Coffman)- 25/64%
• CA-49 (Darrell Issa)- 25/63%
• MN-02 (Jason Lewis)- 29/62%
• IA-01 (Rod Blum)- 26/61%
• ME-02 (Bruce Poliquin)- 25/61%
• PA-15 (Charlie Dent)- 25/61%
• NY-22 (Claudia Tenney)- 26/52%
• CO-03 (Scott Tipton)- 24/52%
• PA-08 (Brian Fitzpatrick)- 30/52%
• NY-27 (Chris Collins)- 29/51%
• NY-24 (John Katko)- 32/49%
• CA-25 (Steve Knight)- 26/48%
• CA-39 (Ed Royce)- 26/43%

Randy's campaign manager, David Keith, just told us that "It is no surprise that Paul Ryan is contemplating going home. From day one of Randy's campaign, southeast Wisconsin-- and the nation-- has woken up to the sound of hope and a working class vision of fairness and justice. Paul Ryan has been spending too much time in bourbon-filled back rooms on Wall Street to hear that message, but clearly, it's loud enough now. He's more than welcome to apply for an iron working apprenticeship so he can learn a thing or two about how he'll spend his time during retirement."

Randy Bryce: "We knew Paul Ryan was too afraid to stand up to Donald Trump, but now it appears that he's too afraid to face the voters of his own district as well. Ryan must be seeing the same thing we are: his poll numbers are dropping, while our campaign has caught fire." Randy's campaign chief strategist, Bill Hyers brought up the new poll from Global Strategy Group which shows Ryan's poll numbers are tanking at home, with 47% of district voters saying they view Ryan negatively, compared to just 46% with a positive impression-- a net drop of 9 points since August. Despite having a fraction of Ryan's name recognition, Bryce is already within striking distance, trailing 46-40%-- and when voters learn about Bryce, he pulls substantially into the lead, which must have driven Ryan to make this decision to retire. Hyers: "Ryan would rather retire than be held accountable for what he's done, but one way or another, Paul Ryan will be out of a job in 2018."

Did the Politico story even mention Randy Bryce, the construction worker on the verge on defeating Ryan on election day? Is Ryan's plea to voters in Kenosha, Janesville, Racine and across southeast Wisconsin going to now be, "hey, I'm leaving anyway... don't embarrass me now? Have pity." Regardless of what he says this is the time to double down... triple down. Whether Ryan runs with the intention of retiring of doesn't run, the key has always been to replace him with a stalwart defender of the legitimate aspirations of working families... Randy Bryce. See that thermometer below?

This morning, the folks at VoteVets alerted their members about Ryan's decision: "Moments ago, news broke that Congressman Paul Ryan is considering retiring after the midterm elections. But honestly, Paul Ryan doesn't deserve to retire with dignity, he deserves to be sent out with an embarrassing defeat... Paul Ryan thinks he is going loot the U.S. Treasury to rain cash on some of the richest Americans in this country and then leave out the back door? No way. No how. We're gonna beat him first." And by "we," they meant everyone coalescing around Randy Bryce to defeat Ryan. You can chip into Randy's campaign by tapping the Blue America Stop Paul Ryan thermometer on the right. One of the candidates we're eager to see working in Congress on behalf of working families alongside Bryce is Iowa's Austin Frerick, a former Treasury Department economist under Obama. "For once, I encourage Rep. David Young," he told us moments ago about his rubber stamp opponent, "to take Speaker Ryan's lead and retire at the end of this session as well. He can save himself the humiliation come November 2018."

Sam Jammal, who's running for Ed Royce's Orange County seat had a similar point of view today" "Ryan can announce he is retiring, but Ed's still stuck with him. Ed's a yes vote that Ryan has banked on for votes to raise taxes on families in our district, cut Medicare for our seniors , undermine our environment and push Donald Trump's reckless agenda that does nothing for our community. Just like with Trump, there is no running away from Ryan next year." And Katie Hill, running north of there for the seat Steve Knight has such a tenuous grasp on told us that "Ryan is less popular in the 25th district than any other elected official. CA-25 voters know that his tax 'plan' and his efforts to repeal the ACA hurt the residents of the district. Steve Knight has continually supported his corporate cronyism agenda. After Virginia, New Jersey, Alabama, and other elections around the country the writing on the wall is clear; voters have had enough. The 2018 elections will turn Speaker Ryan into the Minority leader. A blue wave is coming and I look forward to making the 25th district part of it." Doug Applegate, the progressive in the race to unseat Darrell Issa, saw the Politico story and reminded us that "Without Paul Ryan leading the GOP herd, Darrell Issa will be lost. Constituents of the 49th will see that the GOP only wants to make sure their government does nothing for working men and women of America."

And to quote Beyonce, "tell 'em boy bye"