WHOEVER WINS THE OREGON DEMOCRATIC SENATE PRIMARY IS LIKELY TO BE RON WYDEN'S NEXT COLLEAGUE

... or the writing in the polls?

Late last month we took a little look at the battle for the Democratic senate nomination in Oregon and we came away endorsing both Democrats. Either Jeff Merkley or Steve Novick would make an incredible addition to the U.S. Senate and both would help move along a progressive agenda. May 20 is D-Day but it was nice reading in the new Rasmussen Poll today. It made it clear that whichever of them does win, it is likely that rubber stamp, fake moderate Gordon Smith will be defeated.

As we mentioned on May Day in regard to Miss McConnell's re-election vulnerability, Republican incumbents with a less than 55% approval rating in 2006 all lost their re-election bids. Many think that that is the reason the highly unpopular Colorado extremist Wayne Allard decided to retire. Remember, in 2006 half a dozen Republican incumbents went down to defeat; In May of 2006 these were their approval ratings:

Conrad Burns (MT): 39
Rick Santorum (PA): 39
Mike DeWine (OH): 48
Jim Talent (MO): 48
George Allen (VA): 49
Lincoln Chafee (RI): 52

Instead of these six (sorry Linc) Bush rubber stamps, we now have Senators Tester, Casey, Brown, McCaskill, Webb, and Whitehouse. The polling date from Rasmussen indicates that in January we will be rid of one Senator Smith and will instead be thanking our lucky stars to have either a Senator Merkley or a Senator Novick.

Gordon Smith, United States Senator from Oregon, remains below the 50% level of support for the third straight month in Rasmussen Reports polling. Any incumbent who polls below 50% is considered potentially vulnerable and this month’s polling contains even more bad news for Smith-- support for his potential Democratic challengers is increasing.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Oregon voters finds Smith leading Jeff Merkley by just three percentage points, 45% to 42%. In late March, he enjoyed a thirteen point lead. In February, he was ahead of Merkley by eighteen points.

When matched against Steve Novick, Smith leads by six percentage points, 47% to 41%. In the March poll, Novick trailed by eleven. In February, the gap was thirteen points.

The latest SUSA poll (April 10) shows that Bush's approval rating has fallen to 35% and that Gordon Smith's was 50%, probably not enough to stave off defeat.

Facing grim re-election prospects, Smith has scurried back towards the mainstream. His lifetime ProgressivePunch score is a dismal 18.56-- reflective of an extremely right-wing voting record. In the last year his record shot up to a 41.21, still pretty rubber stampy but more in line with other panic-striken Republicans trying to claim they are moderates and independent thinkers, like Susan Collins and Norm Coleman. If Oregon voters look at Smith's record they will find a garden variety wing nut who has enthusiastically voted to enable George Bush to create a domestic and international atmosphere that has brought him into such disrepute among Oregon voters.

BLUE AMERICA TAKES A PEEK AT THE OREGON SENATE RACE

Steve and Jeff, two great candidates in Oregon

No live guest today-- and no Blue America endorsement. Or, let's put it another way. Both candidates running in the Oregon Democratic primary are so excellent-- and so much better than the rubber stamp incumbent-- that Blue America is eager to get behind either one. We're happy to leave that up to Oregon Democrats to decide. Normally, the only time we feel comfortable inserting ourselves into a primary is when there is a truly progressive Democrat fighting a reactionary one-- like our latest pick, Ed Fallon in Iowa. (Meet him here May 10.) Fallon is going up against a Bush Dog/Blue Dog, Leonard Boswell, who has been almost as supportive of the Bush-corporate agenda as he has been of Democratic congressional initiatives. And soon we'll be hearing more about Georgia state Senator Regina Thomas' campaign to win in Georgia's 12th CD, a seat currently help by someone far to the right of even Boswell, John Barrow.

Oregon is a very different story. The Republican incumbent, Gordon Smith, although-- like many Republicans-- claiming to be a "moderate" and an "independent," has a voting record that is extremely right wing and in almost total lockstep with the extremist Bush agenda-- on everything. Both Democrats, Jeff Merkley and Steve Novick are incredibly good progressive alternatives. If either one of them winds up in the U.S. Senate, it will mean a giant step forward towards a more progressive America.

Their positions on all the big issues are virtually identical-- identical to each other and identical to the Blue America ideals. Each has endorsed the Responsible Plan to End the War in Iraq and both will support efforts to end the occupation as fast as can be done safely. Both of these guys have strong and exemplary plans on the environment, health care, the economy and education. And both are strong supporters of civil rights and have come out against Bush's telecom immunity plans. Each also has a history of working for progressive issues and candidates-- Jeff Merkley as Oregon House Speaker and leader of FuturePAC (which helped flip the Oregon House from red to blue in 2006) and Steve Novick as an effective political consultant and advisor to many of Oregon's prominent progressive candidates for office and organizations (including Governor Kulongoski, SEIU and AFL-CIO).

Oregon bloggers are extremely impassioned about the primary, and partisans on each side make the Clinton-Obama contest look like a garden party. It's really a shame and benefits no one but the execrable Gordon Smith. There's an hour-long "debate" between Merkley and Novick (and two minor candidates) at the Willamette Weekly editorial office and now available at Oregon Blue. It's about an hour long but if you have the time and interest, it will be well worth your while.

We plan to invite the winner of the May 20th primary to come over to Blue America and talk with us about the race against Smith. But if you've got some spare change in your pocket this week and want to do a good turn, please consider sending some toward Kentucky progressive Greg Fischer, our guest here a few weeks ago. Earlier today I posted a new video that could help Greg against the reactionary shill Bruce Lunsford and I'm hoping we can help him put ads like this on the air. It's either that or a sure-fire victory for Mitch McConnell in November. (And if you believe me when I say Gordon Smith is no good... there are barely words to describe how awful McConnell is.) Anyway, I have 5 autographed copies of Al Franken's book, The Truth for the first 5 people who donate at least $30 to Greg's campaign here.


OREGONIAN ENDORSES NOVICK

Merkley has had most of the institutional support-- and he's certainly Schumer's choice (which might make any self-respecting grassroots Democrat suspicious)-- but tomorrow' Oregonian endorses Novick.

We think the candidate they should send to face Smith is, in some ways, the unlikeliest one of all: Steve Novick, an Ivy League lawyer who stands 4'-9" and has a hook instead of a left hand.

This choice is unorthodox not just because of Novick's remarkable personal characteristics and history, but because the Democratic Party establishment is supporting another solid candidate, Oregon House Speaker Jeff Merkley. Merkley launched his campaign after other prominent Oregon Democrats decided not to undertake the rigors and risks of a race against a well-heeled incumbent.

Merkley is an accomplished, decent and dignified politician. He has presided over a refreshingly productive legislative session-- one-and-a-half of them, in fact-- and has a compelling resume and personal story as the son of a southern Oregon mill worker and the first in his family to attend college.

...Merkley has been everything Oregonians could want in a House speaker. Even his opponents harbor him little ill-will, crediting him with restoring a measure of civility to a divided chamber. But watching this campaign, Democrats may want to take a sharper course.

Novick is an unusual man with an unusual resume-- characteristics that some suggest aren't suited to the U.S. Senate. But we think his passion, his intellect and his personal style give him an intriguing combination of qualities that most senators don't possess.

We think Novick represents a bold choice for Democrats who seek to dislodge a veteran incumbent. He has the potential to press Smith as he has done Merkley. And, should he pull off what would be a major electoral upset and go to Washington as the new junior senator from Oregon, he has the potential to make Oregonians proud.