WHOEVER WINS THE OREGON DEMOCRATIC SENATE PRIMARY IS LIKELY TO BE RON WYDEN'S NEXT COLLEAGUE

... or the writing in the polls?

Late last month we took a little look at the battle for the Democratic senate nomination in Oregon and we came away endorsing both Democrats. Either Jeff Merkley or Steve Novick would make an incredible addition to the U.S. Senate and both would help move along a progressive agenda. May 20 is D-Day but it was nice reading in the new Rasmussen Poll today. It made it clear that whichever of them does win, it is likely that rubber stamp, fake moderate Gordon Smith will be defeated.

As we mentioned on May Day in regard to Miss McConnell's re-election vulnerability, Republican incumbents with a less than 55% approval rating in 2006 all lost their re-election bids. Many think that that is the reason the highly unpopular Colorado extremist Wayne Allard decided to retire. Remember, in 2006 half a dozen Republican incumbents went down to defeat; In May of 2006 these were their approval ratings:

Conrad Burns (MT): 39
Rick Santorum (PA): 39
Mike DeWine (OH): 48
Jim Talent (MO): 48
George Allen (VA): 49
Lincoln Chafee (RI): 52

Instead of these six (sorry Linc) Bush rubber stamps, we now have Senators Tester, Casey, Brown, McCaskill, Webb, and Whitehouse. The polling date from Rasmussen indicates that in January we will be rid of one Senator Smith and will instead be thanking our lucky stars to have either a Senator Merkley or a Senator Novick.

Gordon Smith, United States Senator from Oregon, remains below the 50% level of support for the third straight month in Rasmussen Reports polling. Any incumbent who polls below 50% is considered potentially vulnerable and this month’s polling contains even more bad news for Smith-- support for his potential Democratic challengers is increasing.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Oregon voters finds Smith leading Jeff Merkley by just three percentage points, 45% to 42%. In late March, he enjoyed a thirteen point lead. In February, he was ahead of Merkley by eighteen points.

When matched against Steve Novick, Smith leads by six percentage points, 47% to 41%. In the March poll, Novick trailed by eleven. In February, the gap was thirteen points.

The latest SUSA poll (April 10) shows that Bush's approval rating has fallen to 35% and that Gordon Smith's was 50%, probably not enough to stave off defeat.

Facing grim re-election prospects, Smith has scurried back towards the mainstream. His lifetime ProgressivePunch score is a dismal 18.56-- reflective of an extremely right-wing voting record. In the last year his record shot up to a 41.21, still pretty rubber stampy but more in line with other panic-striken Republicans trying to claim they are moderates and independent thinkers, like Susan Collins and Norm Coleman. If Oregon voters look at Smith's record they will find a garden variety wing nut who has enthusiastically voted to enable George Bush to create a domestic and international atmosphere that has brought him into such disrepute among Oregon voters.