Will Farmers Squeezed By Trump's Trade War Vote For Democrats On Tuesday?

No one ever accused the DCCC of being able to chew gum and walk at the same time. This cycle the catastrophic loser organization is totally obsessed with suburban districts and, generally speaking, ignoring rural voters. That's a shame, because many rural voters are open an alternative to Trump rubber stamps. Yesterday McClatchy reported that "many of those feeling the greatest pain from tariffs the United States and China have put on $50 billion of goods are rural Trump voters... Family farmers have lost billions in profits as a whole. They hate the tariffs," but many Trump supporters "don’t appear to be jumping ship. At least not yet." Not yet in deep red Missouri-- but in other areas people in the farm economy are figuring just how bad Trump and his policies and his enablers are for them and their families.

Progressive Democrat Audrey Denney has been working with farmers "one at a time," she told us, during her 10 month campaign in rural northeast California (CA-01 an R+11 Trump district that only gave Hillary 36% of its vote), "learning about how the administration's policies are harming them-- and what they need from a Representative. I’m confident a fair amount of the agricultural community will be casting their ballots for our campaign this November."

Yesterday she was endorsed by the conservative editorial board of the Chico Enterprise Record-- which "hasn’t endorsed a Democrat for Congress for decades, probably all the way back to conservative Democrat Buzz Johnson in the 1970s." The editors wrote that they "don’t take the endorsement lightly." This huge rural district, they feel, needs new representation in Washington:

We certainly hope LaMalfa realizes Trump is uninformed when he blames California wildfires on environmentalists and a lack of water. Does LaMalfa really think it would be good to raise Shasta Dam and displace homes, roads and bridges? He has no problem sending more north state water to the San Joaquin Valley at the expense of the delta? He doesn’t realize that Trump’s tariff war with China and other trade partners is hurting farmers right here? Or that Congress’ inability to enact any sort of immigration reform means some north state farmers can’t find workers to help harvest the crop? Or that it’s better to work with our neighbors in the Mexican government to secure our borders than to alienate them? Or that Trump’s racist dog whistles aimed at blacks, Hispanics and Muslims are offensive to people right here in his district?

Last night James Thompson, a progressive Democrat running in the Wichita area of Kansas, told us that "This Halloween, our soybean farmers are not getting any treats but they all are feeling tricked. One ag producer here in the fourth district of Kansas lost $200,000 because of the Trump tariffs, but will only recover $50,000 because of the bailout. Ag producers, particularly family farms, are feeling the effects of the disastrous tariffs. Unfortunately, many will still vote straight line Republican even though they are voting against there own interests in doing so. Fortunately, many in rural communities have had enough and are also crossing the aisle to vote for me. Ag producers, veterans, small business owners, teachers, and seniors should all be voting for Democrats because Republicans are hurting all of them."

Last year, the United States exported about $20 billion of agricultural products to China of which soybeans accounted for more than half of that amount.

Trump’s 25 percent tariffs are mainly aimed at curbing imports from China, but Beijing retaliated with taxes on an equal amount of U.S. products, including soybeans and pork.

Soybean prices fell by about 20 percent after the tariffs were enacted, and have dropped from a high of $10 a bushel to about $8.50 today.

Trump insists he can save American jobs and factories by reworking trade deals. He’s making that case directly to sensitive farmers caught in the crossfire with Beijing during the final campaign stretch largely through corn and soybean country, including two stops in Missouri.

“Don’t forget, we’re the piggybank that everybody wants to steal from,” Trump told farmers attending the Future Farmers of America’s annual convention in Indianapolis on Saturday. “Everybody. We have all the cards, but nobody has ever chosen to use those cards. Honestly, nobody has ever known that we had the cards. They never got it. But we get it now.”

To ease the impact of the tariffs-- and keep the rural vote-- Trump announced a $12 billion bailout for farmers earlier this year. Trump will visit Columbia, Mo., on Thursday and Cape Girardeau next week where he’ll throw his support behind Missouri Attorney General Josh Hawley in one of the most hotly contested Senate races. Trump sees the chance to defeat Democratic Sen. Claire McCaskill as one of the best opportunities to pick up a key Democratic seat.

But the tariffs are the wild card in this year’s election.

Only 28 percent of Missouri registered voters think the Trump tariffs and barriers to imports will protect American jobs and help the U.S. economy, according to a recent NBC News/Marist poll. Forty-four percent says it will hurt the U.S. economy and raise the cost of consumer goods.

Mix in other factors such as the absence of a farm bill and unpredictable weather-- Missouri experienced a long drought this year-- and farming is a high risk industry. Farm income has dropped more than 50 percent in the last five years, according to the American Farm Bureau.

“So farmers are getting squeezed on both sides,” said Brian Kuehl, executive director of Farmers for Free Trade.

David Keith moved from New Jersey to Racine last year to manage Randy Bryce's congressional campaign. Neither he nor Randy is a farmer or part of the farm economy. David told us that, as an "ironworker who has spent the last 20 years making a living by literally working with his hands Randy feels a kinship with the people who work as hard and are as dedicated to the farmers he's met in the district." David told us that "Randy's seen what extremists' policies do to his bottom line and his ability to get by, take care of his family, and have a shot at staying in the middle class. Randy and the farming community in Southeast Wisconsin know that Washington DC-- Trump included-- is full of bullshit artists who put profit and politics ahead of people... just like Paul Ryan and Bryan Steil. Farmers and all working people alike will be coming together next Tuesday to make history, and elect a regular working person to Washington. All working families will benefit, rural and urban."

Mike Siegel, progressive Democrat challenging reactionary Congressman Michael McCaul in TX-10, told us this afternoon that "The Republicans are testing whether they can motivate rural voters with fear, even while Trump's policies cause the same constituents to go hungry. I am in seven rural counties offering a program of Medicare-for-All, a living wage, and infrastructure investment including high-speed Internet. My opponent, Michael McCaul, wants to talk about a couple thousand refugees who are thousands of miles away and may never even reach the US border. What remains to be seen is whether imaginary enemies are more persuasive than real-life needs. Regardless of the outcome of this election, Texas Democrats will need to continue to conduct rural outreach beyond November 6, to build on the amazing foundation laid by this election cycle. We have put in place relationships and infrastructure that will lead to lasting change in the years ahead, so long as we continue to do the detailed work of showing up, listening, and offering real solutions to the problems of rural America."

Leah Douglas, writing for Mother Jones last month noted how important the traditionally Republican farm vote is for Jess King in southern Pennsylvania. This is family farm country and the GOP hasn't been looking out for their interests.

Her campaign is built on a small army of volunteers who knock on doors, make calls, and engage with voters in person—an old-school effort in an age of PACs and polls. King’s supporters all say the same thing about the candidate: She listens to what people say they need, and builds those needs into her policy priorities. That level of attention is particularly meaningful to local farmers, who feel forgotten by federal policy and neglected by local officials. King is proud that her average campaign donation is $35, and claims that her campaign has mobilized more people than any other Democratic campaign in the district’s history.

The result is something of a local phenomenon. Diane House, a retired teacher who has lived in Lancaster for 30 years and is involved in the local Democratic party, says that there is more excitement for King than for any Democrat who’s ever run for Congress in the area. “She’s there for all of us,” House says. “It’s a kind of Jess movement.”

But the odds of her winning are still long. While Lancaster City, a town of some 60,000, is reliably Democratic, the surrounding rural areas are not. If King is to win, it will require a critical mass of farmers to break with tradition and embrace her upstart candidacy-- a shift that, for many, would be tantamount to assuming a new identity.

...[E]conomic strain has led some farmers to reconsider their vote as the midterms approach. “Farmers are feeling disillusioned with politicians,” says Mike Eby, a local dairy farmer and board chair of the National Dairy Producers Organization. He says they’ve “woken up to the reality” that major agriculture lobbies, and the Republican officials they fund, aren’t always working purely in the interest of the farmer.

“There’s been a lot of propaganda out there for many years” from Republicans who say they represent farmers, he says. “What they actually represent is Big Ag.” The current trend of low prices has driven him and other farmers to “start asking the real questions”-- including why Republicans aren’t challenging corporate control in dairy processing, or why they haven’t backed immigration policies that secure labor for the region’s farmers.

Those questions provide an opening for Jess King, whose candidacy is anything but conventional for Lancaster County. “I love blowing up paradigms as a progressive Mennonite running for Congress,” she said at the October event. A longtime advocate for small-business owners, King often says that both parties have sold out to corporate interests and that she aims to give voice to “average working folks.”

Her agricultural platform calls for stronger antitrust enforcement in the heavily consolidated dairy sector, streamlining agricultural regulations, and providing incentives for conservation efforts like cover cropping and farmland preservation. King says farmers have told her that their top issues are access to healthcare and retaining immigrant workers. Her platform supports a pathway to citizenship for immigrants and Medicare for all.

...Smucker’s agricultural platform leans on policies-- such as repealing the Environmental Protection Agency’s updated scope of the Clean Water Act and providing incentives for landowners to protect endangered species rather than relying on federal regulations-- that can seem out of step with the problems consuming farmers in his district. His platform doesn’t mention either the dairy-price crisis or the broader problem of low commodity prices. None of the 14 bills he has introduced since taking office are related to agricultural production.

Are There More People Who Believe "The Trump Prophecy" Or More Who Believe The NY Times Piece That Exposed Trump As A Fraud?

The Trump Prophecy is the story of a guy with PTSD, Mark Taylor, who believes he heard God telling him Trump is da man! He sounds a lot more like a deeply disturbed QAnon guy than like anyone in touch with God.

He also claims, according to The Guardian that "Trump will serve two terms, the landmark supreme court ruling on abortion in the Roe v Wade case will be overturned, and that next month's midterm elections will result in a 'red tsunami,' strengthening Republican control of both houses of Congress. Barack Obama will be charged with treason and Trump will authorise the arrest of 'thousands of corrupt officials, many of whom are part of a massive satanic pedophile ring.' Trump will also force the release of cures for cancer and Alzheimer’s that are currently being withheld by the pharmaceutical industry."

Producer Rick Eldridge told the press that "There's a mandate for us as believers to pray for those in authority over us. That's a deeper message that we really emphasize in the movie."

OK, so that's one portion of the equation. Yesterday Michael D'Antonio, author of tNever Enough: Donald Trump and the Pursuit of Success wrote an OpEd for CNN, Trump is exposed as the fraud that he is, referencing the blockbuster NY Times exposé that broke Tuesday evening. "In breathtaking detail and with exacting precision," he wrote, "the New York Times has confirmed that for much of his life, though he claimed to be a brilliant businessman, Trump was benefiting from a rigged system, which his family manipulated to transfer enormous wealth from his father to him. This truth, long suspected by those who have peered into Trump's finances, included questionable and potentially fraudulent practices that were used so the Trump clan could avoid paying the kind of taxes ordinary people pay every day... [T]he Times story is quite persuasive. According to the Times, by age 3, Trump was receiving $200,000 per year in today's dollars from his father's operations. By 8, he was a millionaire. And his wealth only grew from there."

Talk about rigged.

Overall, the picture the Times paints comports with much that could be surmised about the family over the years. By the 1960s, his father, Fred, was one of the wealthiest men in New York. His financial prowess backed his son's first big project, a hotel renovation at Grand Central Terminal, and his signature Trump Tower on Fifth Avenue. Although the back story about the hotel project and Trump Tower were well established, the facts assembled by the Times show Donald Trump used deception, not just in carrying out those projects, but throughout the course of his career.

The Times notes he profited from his father's largess to the tune of more than $400 million. Much of this money was given to him though business entities, trusts and employment schemes that permitted him to accept multiple salaries at the same time.

...All the evidence gathered by the Times conflicts directly with the message Trump has long promoted. From his early days in Manhattan, when he marketed himself as a young tycoon, Trump insisted he had succeeded on the basis of his own ingenuity, creativity and grit.

This myth is the chief takeaway from his famous best-selling book, The Art of the Deal, and it was the backdrop for the development of his TV show The Apprentice. In the opening montage for the program, he falsely declared he was "the largest real estate developer in New York, by far." Real estate insiders, of course, knew this claim was rubbish.

Not surprisingly, much of Trump's rhetoric was seen as hyperbole in the service of a public image that was playful and ridiculous. However, once his business acumen became one of the pillars of his presidential campaign, it became fair game for intense examination. Trump has impeded the process by refusing to honor the tradition of releasing his tax returns. However, with impressive legwork and number-crunching, the Times has made the picture much less opaque... The wall of secrecy has now been breached, and what lies behind it seems to be proof that, at the very least, the reputation Trump claimed was a fraud all along.

Today our friends from Vote Common Good made it to Lancaster, PA for a rally with Jess King. Good coverage from Earle Cornelius of LancasterOnline. For decades, Republicans and white evangelical voters have been in lockstep on issues ranging from abortion to gun rights to religious freedom," he wrote. "According to the Pew Research Center, more than 80 percent of white evangelical voters supported Donald Trump in the 2016 presidential election. But a group of progressive Christians, many of whom are evangelical Democrats, hope to change those numbers."

Wednesday evening, that group, Vote Common Good, staged a rally at  Grace United Church of Christ, 1947 New Holland Pike. Lancaster was the second stop on a scheduled 31-stop tour, designed to rally voters in 20 battleground congressional districts-- including the 11th Congressional District that includes Lancaster County-- across the country.

Doug Pagitt, an evangelical pastor from Minneapolis, and executive director of Vote Common Good, said the election of Donald Trump was the catalyst that birthed the organization.

Pagitt said it was “terrifying” that “Donald Trump was not only a reasonable choice but the preferred choice of evangelicals. This kind of tragedy in the American spirit isn’t just a problem to solve, it’s really a crisis to respond to.”

Speaking to a gathering of roughly 35 people at Grace UCC, Pagitt said the group’s aim is to “flip Congress” as a way to counter the Trump administration’s policies.

He said while he does not to promote either party, “It is the way the Republicans and the Trump administration has acted that has caused my faith to fuel me ... to do something about it,” he said.

“No one is calling for perfection,” he said. “What every religious person I know calls for is that their leaders act in ways that are righteous.”

That message resonated with Juli Knopp, who traveled to the event from York with her husband, Wayne.

A registered Democrat, she said the tone coming out of Washington, D.C.  has angered her.

“So I thought this would be a good first step to figure out how I can do something,” she said.

Her husband, a former Republican who is registered as an independent, worries that legislation now being promoted in Washington, D.C., adversely affects most Americans.

“It seems that the policies being created now are more and more geared toward a smaller and smaller segment of the world and it’s just not right.”

Jeff Dombach, a computer programmer from Centerville is an independent voter. He said he has supported Republican candidates in the past but “is unhappy with the divisiveness that’s being brewed in politics.

“Even though I’m an old white guy, I think the powers in control are just driven out of fear for losing their status and rank in society and maybe it’s time they do.”

Lydia from Lititz, who declined to give her last name, said she was an evengelical for most of her life and a Republican for 40 years. But no longer.

“I was a Goldwater girl,” she said, referring to the late Sen. Barry Goldwater, who was the Republican presidential nominee in 1964. “But I can’t support  any Republicans now.”

As for evangelicals, she posed this question: “Where is the discernment?”

Pagitt said some Republican Christians he has spoken to are more loyal “to the Second Amendment than to the Second Commandment.”

Jess King, the Democratic  candidate in the 11th Congressional District, called this “an unusual political moment.”

Prior to addressing the gathering, she said people don’t believe their values are being represented in Washington. D.C.

Among the speakers was Robb Ryerse, a pastor from Fayetteville, Arkansas, who lost in the 2018 Republican primary election to incumbent Steve Womack.

Ryerse describes himself as a pro-life Republican who supports universal health care. Those two issues are not mutually exclusive, he said, because health care is not only about protecting babies but about making sure all Americans have health care coverage.

“I have stayed in the  Republican Party to fight for the historic values of the party,” he said. “It’s the party that used to be the progressive party in the United States.”

America is split now, between those who believe The Trump Prophesy or some other nonsensical garbage just like it, and those who believe that Trump is a crook and a fraud, a modern day P.T. Barnum. That, alas, is pretty much what the midterm elections are all about next month.

A Long Shot Pennsylvania Candidate Worth Betting On

When the Pennsylvania Supreme Court redrew the gerrymandered congressional boundaries, it was of great help to Democrats in most-- but not all-- districts. PA-16 was the south central Pennsylvania district that included most of Lancaster County. Joe Pitts was the longtime anti-Choice fanatic who represented the area. When Pitts retired, Republican Lloyd Smucker beat garden variety Democrat Christina Hartman 168,669 (53.8%) to 134,586 (42.9%). Hartman was a thoroughly unimpressive candidate, with nothing particularly to offer voters other than it was time to have a woman and time to have an unoffensive generic Democrat. The voters thought otherwise. That was in 2016 when the district's PVI was R+4. Trump won the district. As candidates starting sorting things out for 2018, a very non-generic Democratic woman decided to run a fully grassroots campaign, Jess King, a Berniecrat who has lots to offer to south central Pennsylvania voters. From Democratic corporate world, Hartman jumped in again too. And then... along comes the Supreme Court. The strongest Democratic parts of the district (primarily Reading) were excised and given to other districts and the PVI went from R+4 to a far more daunting R+14. The DCCC immediately wrote it off as an unwinnable seat and Hartman quickly withdrew and was never seen again. Jess King and her grassroots team dug in even harder.



To be fair to the DCCC-- and you know how fair I always am to the DCCC-- the seat is unwinnable for the kind of GOP-lite inauthentic corporate candidates they recruit and support. So, of course, they're completely ignoring Jess' campaign. She lucky to not have them (and their appendages like EMILY's List) threatening to pull funding from her if she doesn't hire their corrupt and incompetent consultants. And with them not butting in and not funding her or helping her in any way, she's actually managed to come close to closing the gap with Smucker.

A new poll released this week by PPP shows PA-11 a single digit race now. Though Trump won the district by 26 points, Smucker is only leading Jess 44-35% with 21% undecided. And when voters are informed about where the two candidates stand on issues, the polling results started changing so pretty drastically that they predict a dead heat within the statistical margin of error!

Smucker’s lead over King nearly vanished when voters were given more information about each candidate. After voters heard that Rep. Smucker refuses to hold town halls and collects corporate PAC money, and heard that King declines all corporate PAC donations, the gap between the two candidates shrunk to a single point – with 19% of voters still undecided.

“Voters have a real hunger for a representative who will stand up to the establishment in both parties,” said Jess King. “Democrats, Republicans, and independents all are looking for someone who will work for the people of Pennsylvania-- not the wealthy special interests who fund my opponent’s campaign.”

“It’s remarkable Jess King has made this race a single-digit contest less than two years after Trump won it by 26 points,” said Jim Williams, a PPP polling analyst. “And Rep. Smucker should be very concerned that-- in such a historically Republican area-- he is close to being underwater on favorability and as many voters want someone new as say he should be re-elected.”

“This race wasn’t seen as competitive six months ago,” said Becca Rast, the campaign manager with Jess King for Congress. “But as more and more voters hear Jess’ story and her vision for an America for all of us, we can see our grassroots campaign gaining a lot of ground very quickly.” Since Jess King began her run last summer, her campaign has hosted 51 public town halls and made over 400,000 phone calls to voters through volunteer-led phone banks. The campaign currently has over 25 volunteer-led teams running grassroots voter outreach operations across Lancaster and Southern York counties.

Besides how attractive Jess' platform is and besides how hard-- and how smart-- she and her campaign staffers are working, there's something else to consider, something Ron Brownstein reported about this week for CNN: There's a suburban tsunami driving 2018. And driving it away from the GOP. (Luckily for the nearly-as-horrible Democrats, there's virtually nowhere else for voters to go other than to the proudly lesser of two evils Democratic Party.) "Converging crises," wrote Brownstein, "are compounding the risk that Republicans could suffer historic 2018 losses in suburban communities that could harden a starkly polarized alignment in American politics. Precisely as sexual abuse allegations against Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh threaten to deepen the GOP's already cavernous deficit with well-educated white women, the chaos that erupted with Monday's uncertainty about the fate of Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein appears likely to compound the concerns of independent voters who want Congress to provide more of a check on President Donald Trump. Even before these developments, Republicans faced a perilous environment in white-collar suburbs rooted in discontent among college-educated white voters, especially women, over Trump's tempestuous style, belligerent language and portions of his agenda. Both the Kavanaugh controversy and the Rosenstein speculation could reinforce two of the central sources of that suburban anxiety: concerns that Trump does not respect either women or the rule of law."

Elbow Grease And Winning In A Red District-- Meet Jess King

It's not easy getting Jess King on the phone. It's not easy getting her campaign manager on the phone either. Every time I try-- morning, midday, evening-- they're out working their sprawling Pennsylvania district. The newly created 11th district, which no longer has Adams County or the nice blue parts of Harrisburg and Reading it once had is going to take the kind of work that few campaigns want to undertake. The district moved east and is now basically York and Lancaster counties. When Vox tried explaining the changes to Pennsylvania's congressional map, it was mostly good news... mostly. "All in all, Andrew Prokop wrote, "that makes six Republican-held seats that suddenly have a more Democratic electorate-- with the open seats held by Meehan and Dent, and the seats currently held by Costello and Rothfus, suddenly growing much more likely to flip. However, there’s also one notable change the other way, as Rep. Lloyd Smucker (R) moves from a lean Trump district to a solidly Republican one (the new 11th District)." Some of the blue parts of the district were merged with Mike Kelly's old 3rd district (very red) to former the new 10th (still red, but kind of purple). It left Jess with an even redder district. The first result was that the corporate Democrat the DCCC and EMILY's List were backing jumped ship as soon as she saw the new boundaries and left Jess without a primary opponent. The second result was that Jess and her team, already working hard, realized they had to work even harder-- hard to imagine when they were already working harder than anyone else in the country.

Yesterday, The Intercept published a piece by Ryan Grim on Jess' campaign, Real Resistance, which he introduces as "one of the most innovative Democratic House campaigns in the country."

Lancaster County, Pennsylvania, is what might be called Trump Country. The region, rural and deeply religious, went solidly for Republicans in 2016, as it had consistently in years past.

...The King campaign is playing to win, but along the way, it’s making a broader impact-- advancing progressive issues and aiding like-minded local candidates.

Last November, Democrats picked up seats all across the state, but the party did particularly well near King’s district. In Lancaster City, Democrats swept the council, winning all four seats with a historically diverse slate of relatively progressive candidates. The city, which is 30 percent Puerto Rican and host to many displaced by Hurricane Maria, also elected its first Puerto Rican member of the school board, Salina Almanzar. (The King campaign has a paid staffer specifically dedicated to organizing, registering, and turning out low-propensity voters in Lancaster City, many of whom are Latinos and African-Americans in the majority-minority city.)

...“The way the Democratic Party has tended to run races is show up at reliable voters’ doors, and that means that the south end of the city has historically gotten neglected, and we want to be part of changing that,” Jonathan Smucker said. (In classic Lancaster fashion, yes, Jonathan and GOP Rep. Lloyd Smucker are related.)

“We’re making sure that we’re elevating issues that don’t just matter to people in more affluent parts of town,” Smucker said. “And I think that any time a group does that, there’s some initial skepticism, which I think is deserved. But I think when you are not afraid of walking on eggshells … when you have some humility, and when you stick with it and you keep showing up, people take notice after a while. And I think that’s part of what happened with these two fights.”

While most campaigns outsource their policy, communications, digital, and even field programs to Washington-based consultants, King is doing it in-house with local staff.

Becca Rast, King’s campaign manager, organized her high school to march against the Iraq War with help from Smucker, who at the time was the national field organizer for the War Resistedrs League. Rast’s teenage co-organizer, Nick Martin, is now the King campaign’s field director.

Smucker has been politically active since he was a high school student in the 1990s. He was one of the leading forces behind the anti-globalization protest known as A16 in 2000. He’s been an organizer ever since, and authored the book Hegemony How-To: A Roadmap for Radicals

.

...Leaders of both the campaign and LSU [Lancaster Stands Up] separately argued that the way to break through in a place like Lancaster was to lead with strong, progressive values, but not get bogged down in lefty jargon. “There’s a lot of people out there across the political spectrum that are saying they’re going to vote for us that might not agree with us on every single issue, but are willing to make the commitment to do it because they believe that Jess is an honest person, or they like that she doesn’t take any corporate money, or they like that she holds town halls-- just agree with her values. And sometimes they agree on her policy, too-- like on ‘Medicare for All,’ that’s [supported] across the spectrum,” said Martin.

Jess chats with volunteers before heading out to help canvass door-to-door 

Both in Washington and around Pennsylvania, said Rast, party operatives are starting to notice. “We’re really running the best field operation in the state, and the most robust kind of community outreach program in general, and that’s acknowledged. People do see the work that we’re doing. I think there’s a lot of people who question if it’s the right investment. And I think just from day one, Jess and I have been clear that if we’re not going to be out there talking to people then why are we running this campaign?”

...The campaign runs something they call Jess Camp, which is consciously patterned after Camp Obama, a training ground for organizers. “I just have this vision, or this picture, of the muscle of civic engagement being exercised and strengthened as they go through that,” King said.

The flexing of that muscle has the potential to redefine what’s possible for Democrats. For years, the party has treated its members as cattle to milk for donations and then herd to the polls come Election Day. Earlier this month, House Majority PAC, a super PAC linked with the DCCC, emailed out a survey to its members. Its money question, after asking if the voter wanted to see Democrats take over the House: “Do you know the best thing you can do is donate to organizations such as House Majority PAC?”

As her nearly million-dollar fundraising haul suggests, King doesn’t overlook the importance of a war chest, but she doesn’t tell supporters that giving is the most important thing they can do. Tapping voters for money is like fracking. Dig enough holes and you can squeeze out what you want. But the toxic approach leaves a desiccated land behind. The DCCC and its super PAC deal with that problem by buying new emails to replace the ones they churn through, until every hole’s been drilled. But that’s not a sustainable approach.

King’s treats supporters like a renewable resource instead, training volunteers in organizing and then giving them genuine responsibility. She said new volunteers have rarely gained that type of experience with other campaigns. “When I do block walks, canvasses with people and ask if anybody’s done this before, the most common answer-- well, most people haven’t done it before-- the people who say yes, the place where they did it was with Obama,” she said. “There are very few people that say, ‘Yeah, I got totally involved in the Clinton campaign,’ because there just wasn’t a field [program]. It was more of the traditional, D-triple-C, establishment campaign-- and I know people canvassed and worked hard, but it wasn’t quite the same, and it definitely wasn’t doing persuasion, wasn’t trying to have more conversations across political registrations.”

King’s campaign is designed to be a vehicle for the stifled ambitions of the both talented, motivated people who haven’t left Lancaster County, and those who have returned after some time away. Nick Martin, the field director, told me they’ve used an “if you build it, they will come” model.

The misery of modern life, paradoxically, is a benefit to King’s campaign. People are finally starting to talk about “bullshit jobs”-- the title of David Graeber’s new book that zeroes in on the soul-crushing monotony that makes up so much of our professional lives.

Rast said that particularly among retirees, who may be adrift after a life in the workforce, the campaign seems like more than just a volunteer opportunity. In a world devoid of meaning, by standing for something, King’s campaign has given supporters a way to find purpose in their lives.

“Every church that I was involved in, I was children’s ministry, I was youth leader, I was praise team,” Annie Weaver said. “Having left the church was really hard on me. And what I guess I’ve kind of discovered through all of this, is that this just kinda has become my new ministry.”

Before interviewing King in her campaign headquarters in August, I sat in on a meeting with the roughly 20 interns who had organized that weekend’s flurry of town halls. They went over what went right, what went wrong, mapped out the next weekend rush, and made plans to follow up with each of the 600 people who had come out.

“Some of them are 14, 15 years old, still in high school,” King told me afterward. “You never know what that’s going to yield, right? So the vision is that a political campaign is the fastest way to change regional politics, because it’s a container, and it’s a moment, and it’s a finite thing that people can wrap their heads around.”

Like I said, Jesse and her team are running a model campaign. The district is blood red but her opponent is a dud and she's fortunate that the DCCC and their cadre of expensive brain-dead consultants are ignoring the race-- it works in Jess' favor. They won't screw it up-- their only talent-- and she can run her own grassroots strategy. It's a campaign worth investing in. Sure, I can't get them on the phone... but that's OK, because I know they're out working everyday, which is the best thing I could hope for. The thermometer on the right goes to a page for progressive candidates who, like Jesse, have won their primaries but who the DCCC has basically abandoned. These are the candidates that need the help the most. None of them are in "impossible" districts, just... challenging ones. Jess King and her crew know how to overcome those challenges and they're worth investing in. Click on that ActBlue thermometer and give what you feel comfortable parting with. It's for the good of the country. What could be sweeter than winning in a red district without owing the DCCC or the party establishment anything at all?When Jess goes to Washington, she'll owe that to the voters in York and Lancaster counties, not to Pelosi, Hoyer, EMILY's List, the DCCC, the DNC or anyone else.

Bernie Endorses Progressive Champions In Pennsylvania

Bernie's point this week, when he asked his supporters to back 3 candidates in Pennsylvania, was that "if we are going to defeat right-wing Republicans in 2018 and 2020, we need to win in states that Trump won, like Pennsylvania. And, in my view, the only way we win in those states is by supporting progressive candidates who have the guts to defend working-class families-- white, black, Latino, Asian American, Native American-- and take on the power and greed of the billionaire class."

I wonder what went on in his mind when he picked his 3 candidates. Was it more than just paying them back for backing his campaign in 2016? All of them had done exactly that. The 3 progressive reformers-- John Fetterman (Lieutenant Governor), Greg Edwards (PA-07) and Jess King (PA-11)-- are in tight races. Fetterman may be the most progressive candidate in his race-- or perhaps Nina Ahmad is-- but Fetterman supported Bernie in the 2016 primary. Blue America likes them both-- a lot-- and so far we're staying neutral. Greg Edwards (who has ignored, or been to busy to respond to, our attempts to reach out to his campaign) and Jess King (who Blue America has endorsed early on) are certainly the most progressive candidates in their primaries.

Susan Wild and John Morganelli are Edwards' main opponents. Wild seems like a garden variety Democrat and is backed by EMILY's List, which is generally anti-progressive. Similarly, Morganelli seems like an off-the-shelf Dem, OK but nothing that special. Greg Edwards is certainly the best in this race for Charlie Dent's old seat, which just flipped from R+4 to D+1.

PA-11 has a different contour. Jess King is running a powerful race and was able to clear the field of primary candidates and stay financially competitive with the Republican incumbent, Lloyd Smucker. As of the March 31 FEC reporting deadline, he had raised $564,344 and Jess had taken in $515,812. Unfortunately, the ungerrymandering of the state by the Pennsylvania Supreme Court worked better for Smucker than for Jess, as heavily Democratic Reading was taken out of the district. It was formerly PA-16, with a PVI of R+5 but it's now PA-11, which has a much more daunting PVI-- R+14. (Remember, though, Conor Lamb, not nearly as good a candidate as Jess, just won a similarly red district.). Trump works magic for Democratic candidates. Bernie wrote that "Trump represents something we have never seen before in the history of the United States. It is not just that he represents the interests of the wealthy and powerful. It's that we have never had a president with more authoritarian tendencies than him."

The 2018 midterm elections will be long remembered as a pivotal moment in American history because, if we are successful, we can put an end to the disastrous Trump agenda. If we are not, we will have at least two more years of a rapid shift toward authoritarianism, the further normalization of corruption and the continued rise of oligarchy.

But we cannot defeat Trump and the Republican Party with the same playbook, or by supporting the same kind of candidates long favored by the political establishment and financial elite. That is how we got to where we are today.

He'll be barnstorming with John Fetterman, Greg Edwards and Jess King before the primaries May 15 primaries. "Our job in 2018," he wrote, "is to take on and defeat Trump's authoritarianism, xenophobia, racism, sexism, homophobia and religious bigotry. But we can only do that if we run candidates who can rally the American people around an agenda that works for them, not the billionaire class.

For more than a decade now, John Fetterman has been an outstanding progressive leader in Pennsylvania. From early in his career he has stood with the working families of the state as he advocated for a $15 per hour minimum wage, Medicare for all, marriage equality and ending the failed war on drugs. He has been an outspoken defender of women’s health, immigrant rights, racial justice and LGBTQ equality.

For the past 25 years, Greg Edwards has worked tirelessly to organize for justice in health care, education and economic dignity. The powerful grassroots movement behind Greg Edwards is championing Medicare for all, universal pre-k, debt-free college and raising the minimum wage, and he is living his values of unwavering inclusion by building the diverse coalition Democrats need to win in his district.

Jess King has seen firsthand how the biggest corporations have hurt workers and squashed competition. In Congress, she will work to pass Medicare for all, rein in Wall Street, break up corporate monopolies, and support the real job creators: small businesses in our local economies.

Please contribute to Jess' grassroots campaign by tapping on the ActBlue congressional thermometer on the right. We agree with Bernie; she's a great candidate who would make a real difference in Congress. If the issues he's been campaigning on mean something to you, please help make sure she replaces Lloyd Smucker, someone who never strays from what Trump and Ryan demand from this puppet Congress. Jess is no one's puppet... and never will be.

Has Steve Israel Been Foiled In His Attempt To Sneak Homophobic Blue Dog Chris Carney Back Into Congress?

When I lived in Stroudsburg, it was part of PA-11 and the congressman was a crooked old Wall Street Democrat, Paul Kanjorski. Back then the PVI was D+5 and Bush only managed to win 43% against Gore in 2000 and 47% against Kerry 4 years later. When Pennsylvania's avatar of xenophobia and racism, Lou Barletta first ran against Kanjorski in 2002, Kanjorski beat him 56-42%. Barletta was back in 2008 and made it much closer-- 52-48%. And then the Republican legislature did a major gerrymandering routine with giving Barletta, then the KKK hero mayor of Hazelton, a safe perch from which to preach his anti-Hispanic claptrap. The district didn't just lose my hometown of Stroudsburg, but also lost the heavily Democratic precincts in Scranton and Wilkes-Barre, replacing them with conservative suburbs way to the southwest around Harrisburg. Suddenly a D+5 district was an R+6 district. This time, the bigot beat the crook 54.7% to 45.3%.

"Ex"-Blue Dog Steve Israel, the execrable clod Pelosi reappointed to chair the DCCC, even after his grotesque failures in 2012, has been trying to recruit fellow Blue Dog Chris Carney, an anti-Choice and viciously anti-gay conservative ex-congressman from neighboring PA-10. Carney is exactly the kind of garbage Steve Israel is trying to populate the Democratic House caucus with.

When Carney first ran for Congress, he sought Blue America's endorsement. Despite a warning from Markos that he was a sleazy and untrustworthy warmonger, we interviewed him and took him at his word that he was a progressive Democrat. He told us, for example, that, if elected, he would vote for the hate crimes bill then wending its way through Congress. We endorsed him and raised money for him and he was elected. He immediately joined the Blue Dogs and started voting consistently with the Republicans on crucial issues. The exact Hate Crimes bill we discussed at some length on the phone came up and he voted against it, one of only 14 homophobic Democrats to do so. 25 Republicans crossed the aisle and voted with the Democrats. Years later, one of Carney's staffers told me he was laughing at me and making obscene gestures at the phone during the interview. Blue America was forced to spend over $100,000 helping to defeat him when he refused to return the contributions we had raised for him. When I asked him to, he said, "Fuck you!" What a guy! Just the kind of politician Steve Israel adores.

Now there's a fly in Israel's ointment. On Friday prominent civil rights attorney Andy Ostrowski announced his own candidacy against Barletta. We'll find out more about his stand on issues, although it's worth noting that last year Romney beat Obama in this district 54-45% and that Barletta beat his little-known Democratic opponent 58-42%, garnering more votes than Romney. Barletta won every one of the district's 9 counties, even blue-leaning Dauphin which a Democrat needs to win big in order to take the district.

Will Corey O'Brien Take On Paul Kanjorski?

Briefly, I lived in Stroudsburg, Pennsylvania. The congressman was-- and still is-- Paul Kanjorski-- a corrupt, socially conservative shill for Big Business. A heavyweight on the House Financial Services Committee, Kanjorski has been an apologist for the banksters and has taken more in legalized bribes ($3,185,464) from the financial/insurance/real estate sector that he's supposed to be regulating than any other member of that committee except ranking Republican shill and chief bankster apologist Spencer Bachus ($3,789,474).

In November, Kanjorski came closer to being ousted by northeast Pennsylvania voters in the 11th CD than any other Democratic incumbent. While Obama was racking up an impressive 57% win in the district-- significantly better than either Gore or Kerry-- Kanjorski was nearly defeated by virulent xenophobe and wingnut Lou Barletta (52-48%). The Obama voters were clearly not endorsing Barletta's Know Nothing politics; they had just had it with Kanjorski's sleazy politics.

This morning Gort42 broke the news that a (former) Kanjorski ally, Lackawanna County Commissioner Corey O'Brien, who caused a stir and ruffled some feathers last year by endorsing Obama in the run-up to the presidential primary-- in the middle of Clinton Country, would probably be challenging Kanjorski in next year's congressional primary.

But progressive Democrats can cool their heels for now. O'Brien is no champion of progressive values-- In fact, he's a better packaged avatar of social conservatism-- anti-Choice and against equality for gays. O'Brien looks like he could quickly grow up to me another Kanjorski-- just a lot slicker. Here's an effective, if phony-sounding, ad he ran last year: