NC-09-- The Greater Of Two Evils Candidate Wins

Nice outfits, ladies

Democratic pollsters showed their Dan winning by a hair. Republican pollsters showed their Dan winning by a hair. And non-partisan pollsters showed the race as too close to call. I had no doggie in this race. The last thing I was looking for was another yellow-bellied Blue Dog who had already announced that if elected he would vote against banning the sales of assault rifles, vote against Medicare-for-All and against the Green New Deal. There was only one thing that could turn out progressives in numbers big enough to make him win-- Trump hatred. (So... keep this factoid in mind from the new Washington Post/ABC News poll from yesterday: Independent voters-- crucial in a district like NC-09-- have turned on Trump. "Trump’s overall approval rating among independents is deeply underwater, with 36 percent approving of his job performance and 58 percent disapproving. That compares with a narrower negative split of 43 percent approval to 54 percent disapproval two months ago." Sensing Bishop-- who dressed identically to Trump on Monday night-- would lose, GOP Whip Steve Scalise (R-LA) tried lowering expectations Tuesday morning. Although the NRCC and its allies have poured over $6 million into the race, Scalise called it "a very tough swing district," an odd way to describe a district with a PVI of R+8, where Trump beat Hillary 54.4% to 42.8%. Bishop won anyway, narrowly in a red, gerrymandered district like NC-09.

In the end, it was Republican Dan 96,081 (50.74%) and Blue Dog Dan 92,144 (48.66) with a few votes still to be counted. What it came down to was that Blue Dog Dan's win in Mecklenburg County (55.91%) wasn't big enough to overcome Republican Dan's win in Union County (59.95%).

In the end, it may have been Trump's last minute Monday night rally in Fayetteville that decided the race. The AP noted that Trump-- who brought Pence along too-- was "trying to prove his political clout by pushing" right-wing Republican Dan Bishop while using his divisive rhetorical, painting "a bleak picture of a nation that he claimed would be overrun with crime, poverty and immigrants if Democrats seize power in Washington."

While the stakes for the House are high, Trump's trademark rallies inevitably become more about him than the local candidate, as he uses the stage to settle political scores, sharpen attacks and take on perceived foes. With an eye to his own reelection next fall, he touted his administration's accomplishments but also urged voters to give him more time.

"That's why we need four more years," Trump said at the nearly 90-minute rally. "It's got to seed-- it's a plant. It has to grow. It has to grow those roots. That's why 2020 is just as important. Because they will try to take it away."

Trump's appearance Monday emerged as a test of the president's pull with voters. The special election could offer clues about the mindset of Republicans in the suburbs, whose flight from the party fueled the GOP's 2018 House election losses.

The president enjoys wide popularity within his own party, but a GOP defeat in a red-leaning state could, when combined with a wave of recent bad headlines, portend trouble for his reelection campaign. But before leaving Washington, Trump dismissed questions of whether a poor result for the Republican candidate would serve as a warning sign in next year's elections.

"No, I don't see it as a bellwether," Trump said.

After a light rally schedule of late, the president had plenty of new material to work with.

Chief among them was the White House's worries about the impact an economic downturn could have on a president who has made a strong economy his central argument for a second term. Trump advisers worry that moderate Republican and independent voters who have been willing to give him a pass on some of his incendiary policies and rhetoric would blame him-- and, in particular, his trade war with China-- for slowing down the economy.

Trump offered up a robust defense of the trade war with Beijing. He pushed for Congress to approve his new U.S.-Mexico-Canada trade deal. And he exaggerated the number of miles constructed on his promised border wall.

Trump has increasingly turned to culture-war issues to rev up his core supporters.

He's leveled harsh criticism at majority African American cities, like Baltimore, and delivered repeated broadsides against four liberal Democratic congresswomen of color. Those attacks have been cheered by Trump's advisers, who are bullish on running a campaign critical of Democrats they cast as socialist and unpatriotic.

Monday's rally was held just over 100 miles from the site of a Trump rally in July where "send her back" chants aimed at a Somali-born American congresswoman rattled the Republican Party and seemed to presage an ugly reelection campaign.

The chant was not heard Monday.

Previewing what will surely be his own reelection pitch, Trump repeatedly painted the Democrats as a party that has moved to the extreme left on issues like immigration, abortion and health care.

"You don't have any choice. You have to vote for me," Trump told the crowd. "What are you going to do: Put one of these crazy people running? They are so far left."

"Your way of life is under assault by these people," he claimed.

Trump also notably expressed his support for the Second Amendment against the backdrop of a recent spate of deadly mass shootings. It comes as congressional Democrats push for expanded background checks for gun purchases and as Trump has flip-flopped on the issue amid pressure from the National Rifle Association.

...The district has been held by the GOP since 1963. In 2016, Trump won the district by 11 percentage points. Should Bishop defeat Democrat Dan McCready, it could give Trump room to assert that he pulled Bishop over the top. If McCready prevails or Bishop wins by a whisker, it will suggest GOP erosion and raise questions about Trump's and his party's viability for 2020.

"This will tell us if Trump can carry candidates through suburban districts or not," said Sarah Chamberlain, president of the Republican Main Street Partnership, which represents moderate Republicans. If not, she said, the GOP must "work harder to address the concerns of suburban individuals, mainly women."

CNN's fact-checkers, led by Daniel Dale found at least 22 lies that Trump told during the Monday night rally to his base of morons. Although the election is bering held because the Republican Party was caught stealing the election in November and a bipartisan panel and a court threw out the results, Trump made up nonsense about Democrats stealing elections in California. "A lot of illegal voting going on out there, by the way, a lot of illegal voting," he claimed, a total lie. These were the other 21 lies Trump used in his speech:

China and Trade

China's economy

"I want China to do well and I hope they do well, but they've had now the worst year in 57 years," Trump said.

Facts First: China's official second-quarter GDP growth rate, 6.2%, was the worst since 1992, 27 years ago. Trump correctly cited this "27 years" statistic in July, but he then began changing it for no factual reason. On subsequent occasions, he has said "35 years," "61 years" and "54 years," among other figures.

Trade deficit with China

"China made $500 billion over the last number of years," Trump said.

Facts First: Trump refers to trade deficits as economic losses, and surpluses as gains, though this characterization is rejected by many economists. The US trade deficit with China has never been $500 billion; it was $381 billion last year when counting goods and services, $420 billion when counting goods alone.

Who is paying the tariffs on China

"Hundreds of billions of dollars have been and are coming into our country in the form of tariffs. And China is eating the cost, which the fake news doesn't want to tell you," Trump said.

Facts First: Economic studies have found that Americans shoulder most of the cost of tariffs.

In addition, "hundreds of billions" is an exaggeration, at least when it comes to what has been collected thus far. US Customs and Border Protection reports collecting $41.6 billion from all kinds of duties in the 2018 fiscal year and $34.6 billion in the 2017 fiscal year, and it says $25 billion has been produced by Trump's tariffs on China in particular.

The USMCA and Canada

"We need a vote on the USMCA. That's United States, Mexico and Canada. And they've already voted. They want it," Trump said.

Facts First: Mexico's Senate has voted to ratify the USMCA trade agreement, but Canada's Parliament has not held a vote.

The agreement is highly unlikely to be rejected by Parliament even if Justin Trudeau's Liberal government is ousted in the coming election, since the Conservative opposition party says it will "reluctantly" vote in favor. Still, the voting has not happened yet.

The USMCA and unions

Trump, urging House Speaker Nancy Pelosi to hold a vote on the USMCA, said, "The unions want it."

Facts First: American unions generally don't like Trump's North American trade agreement, a revised version of NAFTA. The AFL-CIO, a large labor federation made up of 55 unions, says changes must be made to the agreement before the federation could possibly be supportive; in a Fox News appearance in early September, AFL-CIO president Richard Trumka called its present incarnation "an unenforceable trade deal" that would be "a windfall for corporations and a disaster for workers."

As the New York Times has reported, the United Automobile Workers and United Steelworkers, among other unions, have also demanded changes.

Immigration

Democrat Dan McCready

Trump said that the Democratic candidate in the 9th District race, Dan McCready, "wants open borders."

Facts First: McCready does not support open borders. His website says he wants comprehensive immigration reform "that secures our border, respects our laws and protects our American values." He calls for the government to "reinforce physical barriers with the technology Dan used in the Marines, like infrared cameras and drones."

Democrats and borders

Trump said the Democrats refuse to work with him to fix immigration laws "because they want to have open borders."

Facts First: Some Democrats, including presidential candidates Elizabeth Warren and Julián Castro, have advocated a significant loosening of immigration law, including a decriminalization of the act of illegally crossing the border. But none of them have proposed literally opening the border to unrestricted migration.

During the Trump era, Democrats have voted for billions of dollars' worth of fencing and other border security measures.

Migrants and court

"You have a program, catch and release: you catch them and then you have to release them. And they're supposed to come back to court in the next three, four, five, six years, and nobody shows up," Trump said.

Facts First: While it is unclear what subset of migrants Trump was referring to, the majority of migrants do show up for court. In 2017, 89% of asylum seekers appeared in court to receive decisions on their cases. Among all kinds of migrants, 72% appeared in court.

Immigration laws

"What can be much more threatening than people that want to pour across our borders? And we have the worst laws-- we have the weakest laws in the history of any country. You can't do anything to stop 'em," Trump said.

Facts First: This is obviously inaccurate hyperbole. Current US immigration laws are not even close to the weakest they have been in the history of this country: the US government did not make a broad effort to control the flow of people entering the country until the late 1800s, more than a century after the country's founding.

There are clearly numerous tools at the government's disposal to stop people from illegally entering the country, from physical barriers to Border Patrol apprehensions. Trump frequently complains that asylum seekers must be released and granted a legal process, but that is also the case in other countries.

The border wall

Trump said "we're putting up miles and miles" of the border wall.

Facts First: No new miles of wall had been built during Trump's presidency as of August, Customs and Border Protection told CNN's Geneva Sands. Sixty miles of existing barriers have been replaced.

Overdose deaths and the border

Trump, talking about the opioid crisis and drug smuggling, said, "100,000 people a year die from what comes across our southern border."

Facts First: The "100,000" figure is an exaggeration, though we don't have an exact figure for overdose deaths connected to the southern border. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has issued a preliminary estimate that there were 68,557 drug overdose deaths of any kind in 2018, an estimated 47,590 of them involving any kind of opioid and an estimated 31,897 involving synthetic opioids including fentanyl. It is obviously not true that all of these drugs came from Mexico; Trump himself has repeatedly said that a significant portion of trafficked fentanyl comes through the mail from China.

Economy

Asian unemployment

Trump said Asian Americans are at the best unemployment numbers "we've ever had."

Facts First: The unemployment rate for Asian Americans was 2.8% in August-- higher than the 2.6% rate in December 2016, Barack Obama's last full month in office.

Women's unemployment

Trump said, "The unemployment numbers for women are the best they've been now in 72 years."

Facts First: This was another exaggeration. It has been 66 years since the women's rate has been as low as it has been this year-- it was 3.6% in August, 3.4% in April-- not 75 years.

We might omit this if it were a one-time slip, but Trump habitually exaggerates many positive statistics, including women's unemployment rates, even though the accurate figure is still impressive. In fact, according to our previous fact checking work at the Toronto Star, Trump exaggerated on women's unemployment in this kind of manner 37 times between the inauguration and June 2 of this year.

Manufacturing jobs

"And by the way: 600,000 manufacturing jobs in this country. Remember? 'You would need a magic wand, you can't do that anymore.' Well, we did it," Trump said.

Facts First: The economy has added 485,000 manufacturing jobs since January 2017, when Trump took office, official data shows. The number is 512,000 jobs added if you go back to November 2016, the month of Trump's election.

Trump's "magic wand" comment was a reference to a remark Barack Obama made at a PBS town hall in 2016. Obama scoffed at Trump's promises to bring back what Obama called "jobs of the past" without providing specifics on how he would do so.

Contrary to Trump's frequent claims, though, Obama didn't say manufacturing jobs could not be created at all or created in large numbers; Obama boasted of how many were being created during his presidency, saying, "We actually make more stuff, have a bigger manufacturing base today than we've had in most of our history."

Accomplishments

Right to Try

"They've been trying to get this for 45 years," Trump said of the program that seeks to make it easier for terminally ill patients to access experimental medications.

Facts First: There had not been a 45-year push for a federal Right to Try law, experts said. Similar laws have been passed at the state level only since 2014, after the Goldwater Institute, a libertarian think tank, began pushing for them.

Veterans Choice

Trump took credit for passing the Veterans Choice program that allows some veterans to be reimbursed for seeing doctors outside the VA system: "We passed something that they've wanted to do for half a century. We passed VA Choice."

Facts First: The Choice program, a bipartisan initiative led by Bernie Sanders and the late John McCain, was signed into law by Barack Obama in 2014. In 2018, Trump signed the VA Mission Act, which expanded and changed the program.

Energy production

"We ended the last administration's cruel war on American energy. The United States is now the number one producer of oil and natural gas anywhere in the world," Trump said.

Facts First: The US has not just "now" become the world's top energy producer: it took the top spot in 2012, under Obama, the very president he accused of perpetrating the "war."

"The United States has been the world's top producer of natural gas since 2009, when US natural gas production surpassed that of Russia, and it has been the world's top producer of petroleum hydrocarbons since 2013, when its production exceeded Saudi Arabia's," the Energy Information Administration says.

Pre-existing conditions

"We'll always protect patients with pre-existing conditions, always," Trump said.

Facts First: We usually don't fact-check promises, but this one has already proved untrue. The Trump administration and congressional Republicans have repeatedly put forward bills and lawsuits that would weaken Obamacare's protections for people with pre-existing conditions. Trump is currently supporting a Republican lawsuit that is seeking to declare all of Obamacare void. He has not issued a plan to reinstate the law's protections for people with pre-existing conditions if the suit succeeds.

The decline in overdose deaths

"Last year we saw the first nationwide decline in drug overdose deaths in nearly 31 years," Trump said.

Facts First: This was another of Trump's regular exaggerations of numbers that are already impressive. There was a rare decline in overdose deaths in 2018, according to preliminary data from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's National Center for Health Statistics-- but it was the first in since 1990, or 28 years ago, not "nearly 31 years" ago.

Foreign affairs

Payments to Iran

Trump claimed that the US "paid" Iran "$150 billion" as part of the 2015 nuclear agreement.

Facts First: The money in question was Iranian money frozen in foreign financial institutions because of sanctions, not US government money-- and experts say the total was significantly lower than $150 billion. You can read a fuller fact check here.

NATO spending

Trump said that, "until President Trump," military spending by non-US NATO members was declining. "The NATO cost of-- spending was going like this," he said, moving his hand in a downward sloping motion.

Facts First: Military spending by NATO members had increased for two years prior to Trump's presidency. According to official NATO figures, spending increased by 1.8% in 2015 and 2.8% in 2016, before Trump took office.

Trump-era increases have been bigger-- 6% in 2017 and an estimated 3.8% in 2018-- and Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg has credited Trump for his role in prompting the increase. But the upward trend started two years before Trump's tenure began.

In 2014, NATO countries who were not yet meeting the alliance guideline of spending 2% of their Gross Domestic Product on defense re-committed to meeting the target. Spending began rising after that.

All But 40 Democrats Are Co-Sponsoring The Ban On Assault Weapons. These Are The 40

Last February David Cicilline (D-RI) introduced H.R. 1296, an assault weapons ban. He has 196 co-sponsors, including six who signed on Tuesday-- Marc Veasey (New Dem-TX), Katie Porter (D-CA), Susan Wild (New Dem-PA), Josh Gottheimer (Blue Dog-NJ... incredible what a primary from the left will do with an asshole like him), and Chris Pappas (New Dem-NH). There are still no Republicans co-sponsoring Cicilline's bill. Only 40 Democrats are still refusing to co-sponsor it. And these are the Democrats who are still refusing to back banning military grade assault weapons:

• Colin Allred (New Dem-TX)
• Cindy Axne (New Dem-IA)
• Sanford Bishop (Blue Dog-GA)
• Anthony Brindisi (Blue Dog-NY)
• Cheri Bustos (New Dem-IL)
• Joaquin Castro (New Dem-TX)
• Emanuel Cleaver (D-MO)
• T.J. Cox (D-CA)
• Henry Cuellar (Blue Dog-TX)
• Sharice Davids (New Dem-KS)
• Pete DeFazio (D-OR)
• Abby Finkenauer (D-IA)
• Joe Cunningham (Blue Dog-SC)
• Lizzie Fletcher (New Dem-TX)
• Jared Golden (D-ME)
• Vicente Gonzalez (Blue Dog-TX)
• Josh Harder (New Dem-CA)
• Katie Hill (New Dem-CA)
• Kendra Horn (Blue Dog-OK)
• Andy Kim (D-NJ)
• Ron Kind (New Dem-WI)
• Conor Lamb (D-PA)
• Elaine Luria (New Dem-VA)
• Ben McAdams (Blue Dog-UT)
• Tom O'Halleran (Blue Dog-AZ)
• Nancy Pelosi (Bad Leader-CA)
• Collin Peterson (Blue Dog-MN)
• Kurt Schrader (Blue Dog-OR)
• Kim Schrier (New Dem-WA)
• Terri Sewell (New Dem-AL)
• Elissa Slotkin (New Dem-MI)
• Greg Stanton (New Dem-AZ)
• Bennie Thompson (D-MS)
• Xochitl Torres Small (Blue Dog-NM)
• Abigail Spanberger (Blue Dog-VA)
• Haley Stevens (New Dem-MI)
• Mike Thompson (Blue Dog-CA)
• Lauren Underwood (D-IL)
• Jeff Van Drew (Blue Dog-NJ)
• Filemon Vela (Blue Dog-TX)

During the 2018 cycle, I spoke to many of the freshmen on this last, one of whom-- Jared Golden-- we even endorsed (what a mistake and I apologize and will do my best to make up for it with him this cycle). But the rest of them couldn't fool me. I smelled the cowardice and deceit on them and Blue America refused to endorse any of the rest of them. Actually one we did endorse and then unendorsed very quickly. But yesterday I spoke with one of them. I asked her why she was not backing Cicilline's bill. I was very polite. She wasn't. Maybe she was having a bad day, but started screeching at me like a mad-women and accused me of pushing her too far towards the far left. (Banning assault weapons is "far left?" We'll get to that in a moment.) She seemed to indicate she will co-sponsor "the f**king bill" but that if she loses her election... it's my fault. She seemed so distraught that I didn't tell her what I was thinking, which was that if she couldn't help her constituents understand why banning assault rifles was good policy, she didn't belong in Congress anyway.

Ever hear of Mike Turner? He's a Republican congressman who represents Montgomery County, Ohio. That's Dayton, a city where served as mayor from 1993 'til 2001. He was elected to Congress in 2003 and never has much of a problem being reelected in his R+4 district where Trump beat Hillary 51.3% to 44%. And he's been a gun-nut kind of guy. The NRA gives him money and graded him an A last year. Sunday, his daughter was across the street from the shooting mayhem in Dayton. Tuesday he said he will now back legislation that "prevents the sale of military-style weapons to civilians, a magazine limit, and red flag legislation." This is his full statement, further than what any of these 40 Democrats above seems to be willing to say:

I strongly support the Second Amendment, but we must prevent mentally unstable people from terrorizing our communities with military style weapons. I will support legislation that prevents the sale of military style weapons to civilians, a magazine limit, and red flag legislation. The carnage these military style weapons are able to produce when available to the wrong people is intolerable.

We must pass red flag legislation to quickly identify people who are dangerous and remove their ability to harm others. Too often after mass shootings, we hear there were early warning signs that were ignored.

I believe these are necessary steps forward in protecting our country and a testament to American values, which include protecting human life.

I understand not every shooting can be prevented or stopped from these measures, but I do believe these steps are essential.

This weekend, a shooter wearing body armor opened fire in downtown Dayton with a weapon he had modified to be able to hold 100 rounds of ammunition. Dayton Police ran towards the shooter and neutralized him in less than thirty seconds, saving countless lives. In those few seconds, the shooter was able to murder nine people, injure at least 27, and deeply impact the entire community. If the police had not been present and able to instantly respond, the casualties would have been astronomical.

This tragedy must become a catalyst for a broader national conversation about what we can do to stop these mass shootings. I look forward to continuing this debate with my colleagues in Congress, as well as discussing these measures with the President during his trip to Dayton.

Progressive Democrat Kara Eastman is campaigning on several planks that she feels will help her neighbors in Omaha and one is sane gun policies. The Republican incumbent in her district comes from a very different mindset. "Donald J Bacon," she told me yesterday, "believes 'GUN CONTROL IS A RECIPE FOR ONLY THE CRIMINALS HAVING GUNS.' He is a member of the NRA and has taken thousands of dollars from the gun lobby. Once again, rather than representing the residents of the Nebraska Second, Bacon aligns himself with special interest groups. He has more interest in protecting them, than in protecting our children."

Eva Putzova-- a progressive Democrat like Kara-- is running against an "ex"-Republican, Blue Dog Tom O'Halleran. He's one of the handful of Democrats opposed to banning assault weapons, a good enough reason by itself to help Eva replace him in Congress. She made it clear that she and O'Halleran are on different planets when it comes to gun safety. "I support Representative David Cicilline's legislation banning the sale and possession of  military-style assault weapons. How many innocent people must be slaughtered by these weapons of war that have no place in civilian society? Gilroy, El Paso and Dayton, are just the latest in a long series of attacks on civilians by hate-filled individuals, including white supremacists, with easy access to assault weapons. No other nation in the civilized world experiences this mayhem on a regular basis like we do because citizens in those countries do not have access to these deadly weapons. In addition to a ban, we need a federal buy-back program that can take existing weapons off the street."

The next congressional election is the NC-09 election to fill the seat that the GOP was caught trying to steal last November. It's in a month. It's a lesser of two evils choice between a generally reactionary Blue Dog, Dan McCready and an especially vile Trump-supporting neo-fascist, Dan Bishop. They both suck, but Bishop is worse. When it comes to this assault weapon ban, though... neither would back it. On Monday, the Charlotte Observer observed that "neither Democrat Dan McCready nor Republican Dan Bishop would ban the kind of assault weapons and high-capacity magazines used in the shootings in El Paso, Texas, and Dayton, Ohio."

“The fact is that the gun violence is new, the prevalence of guns in America is not,” Bishop told the Observer Monday. “Which means its not the guns that caused it. It is societal ills . . . and the problem must be approached comprehensively.”


...Some Democrats-- including Rep. Alma Adams of Charlotte-- have called for a ban or moratorium on the sales of assault-style weapons. McCready does not.

“I think the best way to deal with assault weapons is to implement comprehensive background checks,” he said Monday.

One in five gun buyers avoids a background check, according to the Brady Campaign to Prevent Gun Violence. McCready favors ending exceptions such as the “gun show loophole” that allows buyers to purchase weapons from a private seller without a background check.

Bishop, who was recently endorsed by the National Rifle Association, wouldn’t go that far.

“I’ve not heard of any proposal around that subject that has any explicable purpose other than leading to the creation of a national gun registry, which is anathema,” he said.

McCready said Trump’s tweets and rhetoric have fueled the acrimony in the country. The president’s recent comments about four Democratic congresswomen helped trigger the Charlotte City Council’s resolution last month to “strongly condemn” his “racist and xenophobic comments.”

“It clearly does,” contribute to divisiveness, McCready said.

Bishop said he doesn’t believe “the president deserves any particular blame for coarsening the debate or precipitating gun violence.” He points to comments like those of New York Rep. Alexandra Ocasio-Cortez likening border facilities to “concentration camps.”

He said the president’s language is no better or worse than that of his critics.

Bishop launched a new TV ad Monday describing McCready and congressional Democrats as “crazy liberal clowns.” It was a theme he turned to in responding to tweets about the shootings by some of those same Democrats.

When Democratic Rep. Rashida Tlaib of Michigan tweeted that Trump incites violence with his own tweets, Bishop retweeted it, saying, “Crazy clown show continues.” When Ocasio-Cortez responded to Trump’s address by tweeting that white supremacy, not video games, caused mass shootings, he tweeted, “More crazy clowns. CRAAAZYYY.”

Adams, who just returned to Charlotte from a trip to the border near El Paso, said she wants a moratorium on the sale of assault-style weapons.

“Why do we need assault weapons on the street anyway?” she said. “Those are weapons of war.”

Adams said it’s time for Congress to do something.

“We can’t continue to just sit around and say, ‘We’re going to pray about it,’” she said. “The Lord expects us to do something.”

UPDATE: Two More Co-Sponsors

On Tuesday, August 13, two more New Dems, Cindy Axne (IA) and Joaquin Castro (TX), brother of the anti-gun presidential candidate, signed onto Cicilline's bill as co-sponsors. By the way, that leaves Abby Finkenauer alone with white supremicist dirtbag Steve King as the only members of Iowa's delegation to the House supporting the NRA position. And she claims to be less GOP-lite than Axne! Is your member of Congress on the list above? Most of them are susceptible to pressure on this and I'd say we could get half of them onto the legislation within a month. A dozen especially good targets for loud complaints. These 12 will flip with as few as 10-15 constituents calls:

• Colin Allred (New Dem-TX)
• Emanuel Cleaver (D-MO)
• T.J. Cox (D-CA)
• Pete DeFazio (D-OR)
• Lizzie Fletcher (New Dem-TX)
• Jared Golden (D-ME)
• Josh Harder (New Dem-CA)
• Katie Hill (New Dem-CA)
• Kim Schrier (New Dem-WA)
• Terri Sewell (New Dem-AL)
• Haley Stevens (New Dem-MI)
• Lauren Underwood (D-IL)

Suggestion if you call any of them: be polite but be firm. Don't start by threatening not to vote for them.

Dan v Dan in North Carolina-- It Doesn't Matter Who Wins, Not Even A Little; Both Candidates Suck

Dan the crackpot Republican vs Dan the untrustworthy Blue Dog

No one is forcing me to write this post but if there's one congressional race whose outcome I could care less about, it's the re-do for NC-09, a swingy district that borders South Carolina and shoots from Colonial Heights in Charlotte to Savoy Heights in Fayetteville. The 9th was severely redistricted in 2016, and now encompasses rural areas to the east of Charlottesville as well as the Fayetteville part of the district. The African-American population went from 13% to 20% but the overall political lean remained Republican. The PVI was R+8 and is still R+8. In 2012 Romney took the district 55.4% to 43.8% and in 2016 Trump beat Hillary 54.4% to 42.8%.

What shook things up there is that far right crackpot Mark Harris, a Trumpist, stole the Republican primary from relatively mainstream conservative incumbent Robert Pittenger. On May 8, 2028, Harris was declared the primary winner, with 17,302 votes (48.5%) to Pittenger's 16,474 (46.2%). By the time the scope of Harris' vote theft operation became known, Pittinger seemed tired of the whole process and just let it slide. There wasn't much of a primary on the Democratic side, the DCCC having already picked a very conservative, Republican-lite Blue Dog, Dan McCready as the candidate. He spent close to $700,000 to Fernando Cano's $41,000 and crushed him on primary day 38,098 (82.8%) to 7,922 (17.2%). It may have scared Harris that on primary day more people voted for McCready than for he and Pittinger combined.

Harris kept the firm on that had stole the primary election for him so that it could also steal the general. Harris claimed a 139,246 (49.3%) to 138,341 (48.9%) victory, but on November 27 (2018), the North Carolina State Board of Elections, which is comprised of four Democrats, four Republicans, and one independent member, voted unanimously not to certify the results and Harris wasn't sworn in. After Harris' ballot-tampering was proved beyond a reasonable doubt, the state Board of Elections threw out the results and declared there would be a new election. Harris knew he couldn't run but he endorsed another neo-fascist crackpot and Trumpist like himself, Stony Rushing, AKA Boss Hogg. Club for Growth endorsed state Senator Dan Bishop, author the state's "bathroom bill," who decisively beat 9 other primary candidates last Tuesday. He needed 30% to avoid a run-off and he took 14,178 votes (47.7%) to Rushing's 5,820 (19.6%) and will face McCready on September 10. Whoever wins that, will have just over a year before being forced to compete in the 2020 general election.

So that's where we are. The Republicans have a terrible right-wing nut and the Democrats have a Blue Dog who has the potential to do more harm from inside the party to the progressive movement than any Republican serving in the minority ever could. Both candidates suck. If I lived in the district I wouldn't consider voting for either. AP ran a piece yesterday by Emery Dalesio, North Carolina Candidates On The Attack In Election Redo. Yawn. Dalesio wrote that they both launched their new campaigns Wednesday "deflecting questions about controversial policies and refusing to rule out a bid for higher office in the near future."

In a bit of guerrilla theater, Bishop appeared outside McCready’s campaign headquarters with a cardboard cutout of the Democrat. Bishop described McCready as a liberal who has been as mum as the prop when it comes to talking about his views on current issues.

“I think what voters expect and need is contrast and clarity on issues,” Bishop said. “So that’s exactly what we’re going to do is be clear about the issues from my perspective and we invite Dan McCready to be clear about where he stands.”

Both candidates dodged questions, however.

At his own news conference minutes after Bishop spoke, McCready refused to pledge not to run for U.S. Senate next year. Bishop said McCready is using the congressional election to angle for a 2020 shot against Republican Senate incumbent Thom Tillis.

Bishop, meanwhile, deflected questions about his sponsorship of the headline-grabbing “bathroom bill,” which cost the state billions in projected economic activity. The 2016 law known as House Bill 2 voided anti-discrimination protections for LGBT people and also directed transgender people to use public bathrooms matching their sex at birth.

“HB2 is an old issue and there’s a lot of fantasy about it, including a lot in the media, but I think voters are tired of hearing about it,” Bishop said. “We’ve got a lot of new issues in this campaign we’ve talk about.”

McCready cited a 2017 analysis by The Associated Press estimating that the law cost North Carolina more than $3.76 billion, primarily from businesses that decided to skip intended moves to the state.

“His agenda is nothing but a track record of making things worse for people here in North Carolina,” McCready said of Bishop.

Bishop said he agrees with President Donald Trump that the country should build a wall on the Mexican border and that the current high rate of Central American citizens seeking asylum in the United States amounts to an emergency.

McCready responded that he supported comprehensive immigration reform, one version of which passed the U.S. Senate in 2013 but died in the House as Republican hard-liners opposed legal status for immigrants living in the country illegally.

“It’s absolutely important that we secure the border,” McCready said. “It’s also important that we uphold American values at the border.”

That's how McCready talks-- very general terms that allows the listener to read whatever he or she wants into it. I've watched slippery Blue Dogs like him for years and years. They never make good Representatives. Never! But speaking on Thom Tillis, the current Republican senator who has to face the voters in 2020, he just got a primary challenge from the right, announced on Sean Hannity's Hate Talk radio show. The wing nut running is Garland Tucker III, formerly a very wealthy Never-Trumper but now claiming to be the defender of Trumpanzee from Tillis, who hasn't always been loyal enough.

The White House, which is sending Pence to North Carolina next week to help shore up Tillis, and the NRSC are sticking with Tillis. NRSC spokeswoman Joanna Rodriguez didn't mince any words: "This primary is nothing more than an opponent of the president’s agenda with money to burn teaming up with a past-his-prime political consultant [Carter Wrenn] who is desperate to cash a paycheck."

Tucker is a big right-wing donor who backed Scott Walker, then Rubio, then Ted Cruz and finally Kasich before finally facing up to the fact that his party had been taken over by the fascists and that Trump was the nominee. He mostly writes $1,000 checks to garden variety conservative candidates but he spent major money on Scott Walker and Walker's PAC.

Tucker already has his first ad up on Fox-- attacking Tillis for not being slavishly committed to Trump:





The Raleigh News & Observer reported that Tucker only voted for Trump in 2016 because he saw him as the lesser of two evils. (In other words, he decided to vote for someone he recognized as evil to be president. There's something wrong with that-- which is why I would never consider voting for either Dan McCready or Dan Bishop in the NC-09 congressional special election.)

Tucker, who turns 72 in June, called the federal debt “immoral” and criticized votes by Tillis to raise the debt ceiling and go over budget spending caps. In 2015 and 2018, Tillis voted yes on budget deals that raised the spending caps. Sen. Richard Burr, North Carolina’s senior senator, voted no on both. In February, the federal debt reached $22 trillion, up $2 trillion from when Trump took office in 2017.

Tucker, who founded Triangle Capital Corporation in the early 2000s and was on the board when it was sold last year, is putting his own money into the campaign as it ramps up fundraising. He would not disclose how much he has committed to spend.

“I’m committed to do whatever it takes to get the operation up and going,” he said.

He has donated to Republican candidate for years, including giving $2,600 to Tillis’ first Senate campaign in 2014, according to federal election records. He said Tillis ran on “a good solid conservative platform. In a couple very important areas, he’s really failed to deliver.”

Despite that record of Republican giving, the National Republican Senatorial Committee called Tucker’s campaign a “quixotic adventure for a wealthy, out-of-touch liberal.”

The Tillis campaign and its allies have tagged Tucker as an “anti-Trump activist” for a September 2016 opinion piece he wrote for the News & Observer. In it, Tucker outlined his concerns about Trump, whom he called a “flawed candidate,” and expressed doubts about his character, temperament and consistency on policy. But Tucker said he would vote for Trump over Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton.


“I wouldn’t retract anything I said in that,” Tucker said. “Since then, it has been one of the most pleasant surprises I’ve ever seen. Trump’s policies, forget the tweets and any noise around him, his policies are right in line with my conservative heroes.

“I’m really pleased he got elected and I shudder to think there’s any chance he might not get re-elected.“
 Carter Wrenn, the longtime Republican political strategist who is working for Tucker, said the early television ads are aimed at giving Republican voters a choice.

“Garland needs to become well known. We need to say to voters here’s where Garland stands, here’s where Tillis stands,” Wrenn said. “If you’re a challenger to an incumbent senator, not unusual to try to go on television early.”

Elect any of these guys to Congress-- to the Senate or to fill the laughably empty NC-09 seat-- and you get more of this... more and more and more and more. Something needs to be done to break this cycle. And it's NOT just about Trump and impeachment. It's about polarization and enforced, systemic deadlock and, as Steyer says, a broken system. If the corrupt political parties don't give you a choice, don't vote in their elections. Boycott their elections. Starting with NC-09 in September. It's a good place to begin, because it makes no difference at all. Imagine if no one showed up. Cheri Bustos and Nancy Pelosi want to primaries? How about if we delegitimize their hold on the Democratic Party by ignoring their wretched general election candidates? No more lesser-of-two-evils elections.

The NRCC Wants Everyone To Know Who Their Weakest Incumbents For 2020 Are

The GOP defeat was so stunning and so overwhelming that HALF of these 10 random losing incumbents didn't even get into the NRCC Patriot Program

The NRCC Patriot Program-- which is charged with protecting vulnerable Republican incumbents-- was a total hot mess last year. Of the 30 members included in the program, 20 were defeated. These were the victims of the Patriot Program's inability to fight an anti-red/anti-Trump wave (the is bound to remain strong, or even strengthen, in 2020):

• Mike Bishop (MI)
• Rod Blum (IA)
• Mike Coffman (CO)
• Barbara Comstock (VA)
• John Culberson (TX)
• Carlos Curbelo (FL)
• Jeff Denham (CA)
• John Faso (NY)
• Steve Knight (CA)
• Jason Lewis (MN)
• Tom MacArthur (NJ)
• Erik Paulsen (MN)
• Bruce Poliquin (ME)
• Dana Rohrabacher (CA)
• Keith Rothfus (PA)
• Scott Taylor (VA)
• Claudia Tenney (NY)
• David Valadao (CA)
• David Young (IA)
• Kevin Yoder (KS)

On Friday the NRCC announced the first 8 members they added to the doomed program. It's a nice roadmap for Democrats to check who the opposition party thinks their weakest incumbents are. No surprises at all though:

• Fred Upton (MI)- won re-election with 50.2%. Trump carried the 6th district by 8.4 points.
• Don Bacon (NE)- won re-election with 51.0%. Trump carried the 2nd district by 2.2 points.
• Lee Zeldin (NY)- won re-election with 51.5%. Trump carried the 1st district by 12.3 points.
• John Katko (NY)- won re-election with 52.6%. Trump lost the 24th district by 3.6 points.
• Brian Fitzpatrick (PA)- won re-election with 51.3%. Trump lost the 1st district by 2 points.
• Michael McCaul (TX)- won re-election with 51.1%. Trump carried the 10th district by 9.1 points.
• Pete Olson (TX)- won re-election with 51.4%. Trump carried the 22nd district by 7.9.
• Will Hurd (TX)- won re-election by less than half a point (49.2%). Trump lost the 23rd district by 3.4.
• John Carter (TX)- won re-election with 50.6%. Trump carried the 31st district by 12.7.
• Jaime Herrera Beutler (WA)- won re-election with 52.7%. Trump carried the 3rd district by 7.4.

The DCCC and the NRCC are two of the lamest and most incompetent organizations in American politics-- and every year they battle it out, wasting tens of millions of dollars with their lame and ineffective strategies. One of the ugliest dances I see them doing every year is for the DCCC to warn their swing district candidates to trying to sound like Republicans as much as possible and to even vote like Republicans when they can. Two great examples are Blue Dogs Joe Cunningham (SC) and Charlie Crist (FL). Both have extraordinarily low "F" grades from ProgressivePunch. In fact, Cunningham has the single worst voting record of any Democrat this session-- a 30.77 lifetime crucial vote score. Two Republicans-- Justin Amash (MI) and Brian Fitzpatrick (PA)-- vote more progressively than Cunningham! Crist's lifetime crucial vote score is 56.77, indicating he votes slightly more frequently with Democrats than with Republicans. The DCCC tells them that will make them safer. But does it? Do they attract Republican voters? Not many, but that strategy sure turns off progressives and other Democratic base voters. And, instead of staving off criticism from the Republicans (and their right-wing media allies), it attracts it. Which Democrats do they put the most money and energy into attacking? The 3 most recent posts on the official NRCC blog were all posted on Thursday by Camille Gallo-- one on North Carolina Blue Dog candidate Dan McCready which also allowed them to sling some mud at Ilhan Omar:

Last night Dan McCready tried to thread the ol’ anti-Semitism needle, tweeting that he refused racist Ilhan Omar’s donations because he disagrees with any anti-Semitic comments.

But then he oddly stood up for the anti-Semite in his very next tweet.

Democrats were not happy, as one state Senator slammed McCready’s wish-washy decision to refuse Omar’s money.

Looks like McCready can’t have it both ways.

NRCC Comment: “Dan McCready’s faux condemnation of anti-Semite and racist Ilhan Omar is pathetic. If McCready is this feckless now, how can North Carolinians expect him to stand up to the socialist Democrats in Congress?” -NRCC Spokeswoman Camille Gallo

And the other two posts? Crist and Cunningham. No matter how many times they vote with the Republicans, the will always be attacked by the Republicans-- until they flip their registrations and become Republicans. Cunningham:

On the campaign trail, Joe Cunningham couldn’t stand lobbyists.

...He even said, lobbyists have had “a stranglehold over American politics for far too long.”

But now that he’s in the swamp, he’s fallen in love with them. The Charleston Post and Courier reports that Cunningham has hired THREE DC lobbyists to work for him.

That "stranglehold" is strong in Joe’s office.

NRCC Comment: “One of Joe Cunningham’s first decisions after being elected was to hire a bunch of DC lobbyists-- the very same thing he railed against on the campaign trail. Joe Cunningham is a joke, period.” -NRCC Spokeswoman Camille Gallo

The title of the post about "former" life-long Republican Charlie Crist is hilarious, especially since it beckons back to when he was the Republican governor of Florida: Charlie Crist-- The Socialist Democrats' Congressman. See? No matter how right-wing the voting record-- and Crist's is pretty right-wing-- the NRCC has a formula they'll stuff you into anyway: "Socialist! Socialist! Socialist! Venezuela!"

When Charlie Crist was Florida’s governor he ran as "The People’s Governor" and now proudly refers to himself as "The People’s Congressman." Through his long political career he’s claimed to put "people over politics," and that being loyal to a political party over the people is wrong.

But it looks like Charlie has ditched this conviction quicker than he’s switched political parties by joining the DCCC’s leadership team with the main goal of electing more socialist Democrats to Congress.

So much for putting people over politics, right?!

NRCC Comment: “Charlie Crist is going to need a new catchy campaign slogan. By joining the DCCC’s leadership team, Charlie has proven he’d rather be a party boss for the socialist Democrats than represent the people of Florida.” -NRCC Spokeswoman Camille Gallo

Democrats-- like Crist and Cunningham-- would be better off to stop dancing with the GOP and go for the jugular-- like like the Republicans do. The Democratic Establishment is whispering already about abandoning the state of Ohio because it's just "too red" for them to deal with. Bernie's having none of that bullshit. Last year Sherrod Brown, an unapologetic progressive, was reelected convincingly, beating multimillionaire Trumpist congressman, Jim Renacci 2,358,508 (53.4%) to 2,057,559 (46.6%), despite Renacci dumping over half a million dollars of his own it his failing campaign. Likewise, Obama beat McCain there is 2008 and then beat Romney in 2012. So why is it too red to contest for the establishment goof-bags? They all come from Hillary's failed campaign and she lost badly, after not seriously contesting the state anyway. Bernie's response? Watch this video his campaign released yesterday; this is how it's done-- right in their faces:

News From North Carolina's Lesser Of Two Evils Congressional Do-Over

The North Carolina Election Board has set May 14 as the day of the NC-09 congressional primary do-over. Election thief Mark Harris isn't running and he's endorsed Boss Hogg (AKA- Stony Rushing). Candidate filing begins next week and the whole process ends with a general election on September 10-- unless a primary runoff is needed, in which case the general election will take place November 5. It isn't likely that any Democrat will challenge Blue Dog Dan McCready in the primary, guaranteeing a lesser-of-two evils general election, with McCready playing the role of lesser evil. So far contention for greater evil is fierce, with state Senator Dan Bishop, former state Senator Tommy Tucker, Union County Commissioner Boss Hogg, failed Wake County Commission candidate David Blackwelder, and former Mecklenburg County commissioner Matthew Ridenhour all in the hunt.

Boss Hogg, a protypical Trumpist zombie, is generally considered the worst of the candidates-- automatically making him the front-running. Why the worst? On Sunday Judd Legum ran a post that addressed that head-on: The Secret Life Of Stony Rushing. "Rushing," he wrote, "gained notoriety for featuring a picture of himself dressed like Boss Hogg, the villain from The Dukes of Hazzard, on his campaign Facebook page. On the show, Boss Hogg was a greedy politician known for his corrupt schemes like moonshining and counterfeiting. But in 2015, the real Stony Rushing was involved in a scheme that was more bizarre than anything dreamed up on TV."

On December 7, 2015, Rushing submitted a hand-written complaint to the Union County District Court on behalf of his tween daughter. The filing was quite serious: "COMPLAINT FOR NO-CONTACT ORDER FOR STALKING OR NON-CONSENSUAL SEXUAL CONDUCT." The complaint targeted a woman named Tracy Wesolek, who was active in local Republican politics.

Rushing asked the court to issue a temporary no-contact order "ex parte (without notice to the defendant) because the plaintiff will suffer immediate injury, loss, or damage before the defendant could be heard."

He requested that the no-contact order cover a variety of appalling conduct including assault, molestation, and stalking.

When it came to the details about what Wesolek had actually done, however, Rushing was vague. The complaint is supposed to document how the defendant "tormented, terrorized, or terrified the plaintiff… with the intent to put the plaintiff in reasonable fear for the plaintiff's safety… with the intent to cause, and which did cause, the plaintiff to suffer severe emotional distress by placing the plaintiff in fear of death, bodily injury or continued torment or terror."

Rushing provided a two-sentence description of Wesolek's conduct, saying Wesolek "has shown jealousy toward my daughter" and "made negative remarks to me about my daughter."

Remarkably, a court issued a temporary order to Rushing without hearing from Wesolek. But things would quickly go south.

Wesolek hired an attorney, John Snyder, to represent her in the case. Although it was unusual for a case filed in district court, Snyder suggested taking Rushing's deposition to force him on the record. Rushing represented himself.

In the deposition, Rushing, who is married, admitted to having an affair with Wesolek and-- shortly before filing the lawsuit on behalf of his daughter-- professing his love for Wesolek.

In the deposition, Rushing based his claim that Wesolek was stalking his daughter on a Facebook post from Wesolek's adult son, which made fun of Rushing's daughter's weight. Rushing also presented some other posts about his daughter that he claimed came from a fake Facebook persona controlled by Wesolek. But he had nothing to support that allegation. There was no evidence that Wesolek had posted anything about Rushing's daughter or any other family member.

In an interview with Popular Information, Snyder said he believed the real purpose of the no-contact order was to provide Rushing, a staunch social conservative, with "political cover" for his affair by depicting Wesolek as a "psycho stalker."

Rushing's legal maneuvering may have been intended to intimidate Wesolek from talking about the affair. According to Snyder, news of their relationship had begun circulating in North Carolina political circles and Rushing believed that Wesolek was responsible. In the deposition, however, Rushing admitted he had told at least one other person about the affair-- making him the potential source of the rumors.

After the deposition, Snyder offered Rushing an opportunity to drop the matter so that Rushing could avoid further embarrassment. But Rushing insisted on going to trial.

Rushing, still representing himself, took the stand as the first witness. News of the unusual trial had gotten around and local attorneys crowded into the courtroom to watch the action. It didn't last long.

Under cross-examination, Rushing admitted to his affair with Wesolek. Rushing was also forced to acknowledge that he had no evidence that Wesolek had sent any communications at all to his daughter. Confronted with the fact that Wesolek could not be held responsible for the actions of her college-aged son, Rushing pledged to get him kicked out of school.

After Rushing's testimony, Snyder made an oral motion to the judge to dismiss the case. The judge granted the motion and vacated the temporary no-contact order.

"I was satisfied with the results in court and haven't looked back," Wesolek told Popular Information [Legum's blog].

In an interview with Popular Information, Rushing said that he filed for a no-contact order because Wesolek was "saying things about my daughter." Asked to elaborate on Wesolek's conduct, Rushing claimed that "as part of the judge's order" he was not supposed to talk about it. That claim is false. The judge dismissed Rushing's case and did not issue any additional orders.

Asked whether he had an affair with Wesolek, Rushing refused to answer. He promised Popular Information an exclusive interview about "everyone I had sex with from virginity to today" once Popular Information asked Democrat Dan McCready a series of questions.

Rushing quickly ended the interview and immediately posted about it on Facebook.

The courtroom isn't the only place you'll find fireworks from Rushing. In an October 2, 2006 meeting of the Union County Board of Commissioners, Rushing threatened to "whip" and "slap" another commissioner.

Commissioner Mike Sexton said that Rushing hadn't "brought one positive initiative" in four years on the commission. That set Rushing off. He asked the chairman of the commission for a recess before "I lose my temper."

When the chairman did not agree, Rushing became even more agitated.  "Mr. Chairman, I'm begging you to call for a recess. He's fixing to get in the middle of getting his rear end whipped," Rushing said.

"What are you going to do in a recess?" the chairman asked.

"I might go slap his face," Rushing replied.

McCready is likely to win the seat. The Democrats not only don't need him, numerically speaking, he's more than likely to be another of the freshmen pulling the caucus rightward. Currently there are 24 freshmen with ProgressivePunch scores of "F" who are consistently voting against anything that smacks of progressivism-- and McCready will just be another on that list, which goes from bad to worst:

• Angie Craig (New Dem-MN)
• Chrissy Houlahan (New Dem-PA)
• Katie Porter (D-CA)
• Harley Rouda (New Dem-CA)
• Kim Schrier (New Dem-WA)
• Steven Horsford (New Dem-NV)
• Ed Case (Blue Dog-HI)
• Andy Kim (D-NJ)
• Mikie Sherrill (Blue Dog-NJ)
• Elissa Slotkin (New Dem-MI)
• Abigail Spanberger (Blue Dog-VA)
• Cindy Axne (New Dem-IA)
• Anthony Brindisi (Blue Dog-NY)
• Sharice Davids (New Dem-KS)
• Abby Finkenauer (D-IA)
• Jared Golden (D-ME)
• Elaine Luria (New Dem-VA)
• Max Rose (Blue Dog-NY)
• Xochitl Torres Small (Blue Dog-NM)
• Antonio Delgado (D-NY)
• Kendra Horn (Blue Dog-OK)
• Ben McAdams (Blue Dog-UT)
• Joe Cunningham (Blue Dog-SC)
• Jeff Van Drew (Blue Dog-NJ)