Federal Court Unanimously Strikes Down Republicans Unconstitutional Gerrymander Of Michigan

A federal court Trump hasn't had the opportunity to pervert yet, voted unanimously to strike down the Michigan GOP legislature's grossly unconstitutional gerrymander that handed a 50/50 state over to the Republicans in the state House, state Senate and congressional delegation, even while statewide, the Democrats were kicking GOP butt. The decision will force a redrawing of congressional districts 1, 4, 5, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, and 12; state Senate Districts 8, 11, 12, 14, 18, 27, and 36; and state House Districts 24, 32, 51, 55, 60, 63, 75, 83, 91, 94, and 95. (The Court let 7 contested legislative districts stand as they are-- three in the state Senate and 4 in the state House but will also require Michigan to conduct special state Senate elections for some seats next year, cutting in half the four-year terms those current lawmakers are now serving.)

Unless the Supreme Court-- which Trump has perverted (very much so)-- grants a stay, fairly likely with 2 similar cases pending for North Carolina and Maryland, the new boundaries will have to be approved by the court in time for the 2020 election. The court characterized the boundaries the legislature drew as a partisan gerrymander "of historical proportions."

The ruling stated flatly that the "predominate purpose" of the Republican redistricting plan (2011) "was to subordinate the interests of Democratic voters and entrench Republicans in power" violating the first and 14th Amendment rights of the plaintiffs. In the statewide races last cycle, the Republicans got just 43.7% in the gubernatorial race and just 45.8% in the U.S. Senate race.

The court ordered a super-transparent redistricting process that requires the legislature to present Democratic Governor Gretchen Whitmer a new map she agrees to sign by August 1. If they fail-- likely-- the court will appoint a special master, the way the court in Pennsylvania did, which was catastrophic for the Republican congressional delegation. The Pennsylvania delegation went from 13 Republicans and 5 Democrats under the illegally gerrymandered map to 9 Democrats and 9 Republicans (if the GOP holds onto PA-12 next week, as expected).

The unanimous decision was made by 3 judges, 2 Clinton appointees and one appointee of George H.W. Bush. During the process, Michigan's new Secretary of State, Jocelyn Benson (D), wasn't nearly as harsh towards the GOP law-breakers as the court was. But yesterday she said that the ruling "confirms that these Michigan state House and Senate and U.S. congressional districts are unconstitutional... As the state’s chief election officer, I’m committed to working with the Legislature, citizens and the court to ensure the new districts comply with our U.S. Constitution."

When the suit began, Michigan had 9 Republicans and 5 Democrats in Congress, despite the fact that the statewide votes are around 50/50. In 2018, though, 2 red seats were flipped and the delegation now stands at 7 Republicans and 7 Democrats. The redrawing could turn the delegation bluer yet. These are the members of Congress directly impacted by the ruling, along with the PVI of each district:

• MI-01- Jack Bergman (R)- R+9
• MI-04- John Moolenaar (R)- R+10
• MI-05- Dan Klildee (D)- D+5
• MI-07- Tim Walberg (R)- R+7
• MI-08- Elissa Slotkin (D)- R+4
• MI-09- Andy Levin (D)- D+4
• MI-10- Paul Mitchell (R)- R+13
• MI-11- Haley Stevens (D)- R+4
• MI-12- Debbie Dingell (D)- D+14

As far as I can tell, a fairer map wouldn't change much. Slotkin and Stevens would probably wind up with less red districts, perhaps with an R+1 lean rather than the current R+4 leans that are usually only flippable in wave cycles. The Republican who could be in serious jeopardy is Tim Walberg in the southeast corner of the state, where his district is likely to end up with more Democratic voters from Washtenaw County in Debbie Dingell's district. It wouldn't put her in jeopardy at all to turn MI-07 into an evenly split district, which is always what courts want to see. Maybe I'm being too conservative in my thinking, but my best guess is that a new map will result in just one change in the delegation. If the DCCC runs a reasonable candidate-- like the sack of Blue Dog garbage they ran in 2018-- they would be able to retire Walberg. That's really it, other than more safety for reelection hopes for Slotkin and Stevens, who are being targeted by the NRCC now, but probably will be just targeted on paper after their districts are made more even.

Walberg beat back wretched Blue Dog Gretchen Driskell, one of the worst candidates the DCCC was pushing last cycle, 158,730 (53.8%) to 136,330 (46.2%). In a slightly fairer district, a non-lesser-of-two-evils Democrat would probably spell the end of Walberg's political career. There are currently 8 counties in the district. The DCCC was eager to field a Blue Dog with relatively little in common with actual Democrats who live in those counties beyond Choice and other social issues. Keep in mind that Democrats in those 8 counties went overwhelmingly for Bernie-- he won all 8 counties-- rather than Hillary in 2016, a real indictment of DCCC interference in local elections. The eight counties are listed here by the size of their voter turnout, but big and small they were all Bernie territory. Democrats chose to back the populist progressive, not the corporatist status quo candidate. That didn't stop-- never stops-- the DCCC from saddling them with an even worse candidate than Hillary, a full-fledged conservative, Republican-lite Blue Dog:

• Monroe- Bernie- 48.1% (to Hillary's 47.2%)
• Jackson- Bernie- 55.0%
• Washtenaw- Bernie- 55.4%
• Eaton- Bernie- 55.6%
• Lenawee- Bernie- 53.9%
• Hillsdale- Bernie- 56.7%
• Branch- Bernie- 53.6%

In the general, Trump won Monroe (58.4%), Jackson (57.2%), Eaton (49.6%), Leenawee (57.6%), Hillsdale (70.9%) and Branch (66.9%). Clinton won only Washtenaw County, where, remember, Bernie has edged her in the primary. It's why people so often say Bernie would have won-- and will in 2020, unless the Democrats manage to run another Clinton-type candidate.

More Sad; More Triage

Paul Ryan's corporately-funded SuperPAC, the Congressional Leadership Fund has poured $1.8 million into WI-01 to defeat Randy Bryce with a campaign of vicious personal smears-- please help us respond here at IronStache Fund-- but because they are so obsessed with @IronStache and a handful of other progressives they want to keep out of Congress-- they no longer have the funds to help some of their own most vulnerable incumbents. As we pointed out in recent weeks, they've been practicing the art of triage on walking dead incumbents Keith Rothfus (PA), Chris Collins (NY), Barbara Comstock (VA), Erik Paulsen (MN), Jason Lewis (MN), and Rod Blum (IA), among others.

Late Friday, Alex Isenstadt added two more to the growing list of GOP incumbents Ryan is writing off as goners: Mike Coffman (CO) and Mike Bishop (MI). Bishop was a bit of a surprise, since Trump beat Hillary in his district 50.6% to 43.9% and the PVI is a fairly comfortable R+4. Bishop has been a loyal Trump rubber-stamp and the 538 forecaster still shows a 49.3-47.6% race.

Coffman is a different story, of course. He's in a blue district (PVI D+2) that Trump lost by 9 points. Coffman's only hope is that the Democratic nominee, Jason Crow is so terrible that Coffman could weather the wave. As bad a candidate as Crow is, polling shows him being swept into Congress by the wave anyway. Coffman is forecasted to have just a 1 in 5 shot to win. Maybe he shouldn't have been a devoted Trump ass-kisser.

Istenstadt reported that Ryan's PAC "will cancel its planned TV advertising for both members, a move that comes as the party refocuses its funds on races that leaders feel confident they can win-- and away from those it sees as out of reach. The organization had $1 million in TV advertising reserved for Coffman and $2.1 million for Bishop, dollars that will now be redistributed elsewhere. Party officials say both incumbents are trailing Democratic challengers ahead of the midterm elections, and both are expected to be significantly outspent during the final weeks of their campaigns."

Among the seats that the party feels increasingly pessimistic about are those held by Minnesota Reps. Erik Paulsen and Jason Lewis, Virginia Rep. Barbara Comstock, and Iowa Rep. Rod Blum.

Party officials say additional incumbents will likely need to be cut off in the weeks to come.

The decision to cut off Bishop in particular, however, caught some by surprise. The second-term lawmaker represents an exurban Detroit-area district that was carried by Donald Trump in 2016 and Mitt Romney four years earlier. Bishop, a former leader in the Michigan state legislature, won reelection in 2016 by 17 percentage points. This year, he is running against Democrat Elissa Slotkin, who was a defense official in the Obama administration.

Bishop aides pushed back on the notion their race was lost. On Friday afternoon, following the super PAC’s announcement that it was withdrawing, Bishop’s campaign released a memo claiming that recent polling showed the incumbent with a small lead over his Democratic opponent. The internal poll conducted last week showed Bishop with a slim 2-point edge over Slotkin, 45 percent to 43 percent.

“Our internals show us leading and we feel confident Mike Bishop will be re-elected," said Stu Sandler, a Bishop adviser.

A poll conducted for Slotkin's campaign the same week showed her with a 4-point advantage over Bishop, 47 percent to 43 percent.

Democrats appear especially confident in their prospects of defeating Coffman, a fifth-term political survivor who represents a Denver-area swing district. Earlier this week, the Democratic super PAC House Majority PAC canceled nearly $800,000 in planned TV advertising in the district.

CLF's move is the latest Republican move to pull money out of districts that are starting to look unwinnable. Last week, the National Republican Congressional Committee canceled all of its ad reservations in Rep. Keith Rothfus' (R-Pa.) district, as he faces an uphill battle for reelection against Democratic Rep. Conor Lamb.

The Ryan's PAC and the NRCC have also started going back on promises which were made when luring Republicans into House races. They recently wrote off Diane Harkey (CA-49), Janice Arnold-Jones (NM), Jay Webber (NJ), Pearl Kim (PA), Greg McCauley (PA), Marty Nothstein (PA), Lena Epstein (MI), Steve Watkins (KS) and Lea Marquez-Peterson (AZ) for dead. Trump had promised support, for example, to Danny Tarkanian in a Las Vegas-metro district but the GOP has now jettisoned him and left him to die out in the desert... alone.

Incumbents on the next round triage watch-list include Drunken Hunter (CA), Dana Rohrabacher (CA), Jeff Denham (CA), Carlos Curbelo (FL), Claudia Tenney (NY) and Leonard Lance (NJ).

The NRCC Is Dishonoring The Memory Of John McCain Already

MI-08 is an iffy seat for a Democrat to win without a wave. But this cycle there is a wave. The R+4 district includes Democratic Ingraham County (Lansing), Republican Livingston County and then red parts of Oakland County. in the suburbs north of Detroit. Although Obama won the district in 2008, Romney took it in 2012 and Trump beat Hillary 50.6% to 43.9%. The incumbent, Mike Bishop, was majority leader of the Michigan state Senate but has been a hapless, anonymous backbencher in Congress, a Trump rubber-stamp and enabler. His Trump affinity score is an eye-popping 97.8%, way out of synch with his district. The 538 website shows a pretty classic toss-up, forecasting Bishop will get 48.8% of the votes against 48.2% for Elissa Slotkin, a conservative New Dem.

As of the July 18 FEC reporting deadline in Michigan, Slotkin was doing far better than Bishop in the money race. She had raised $3,022,226, spent $644,848 and was sitting on $2,377,378. Bishop had only raised $2,187,217 ($1,444,121 from PACs), spent $581,498 and had just $1,706,307 left on hand. At that time, Paul Ryan's sleaze SuperPAC hadn't really begun to spend much on him; they're just getting started and will more than make up for her fundraising advantage. The ad up top, though, was paid for by the NRCC.

The DCCC recruited Slotkin because they had a theory that it would be advantageous to run hawkish, conservative women with military and intelligence backgrounds. She's a former Acting Assistant Secretary of Defense. She worked in both Democratic and Republican administrations-- she just picked up endorsements from 3 big name GOP military industrial complex types (Chuck Hagel, John Negroponte and Stephen Hadley)-- in the CIA, primarily on Middle East matters. Judging by her website, she has nothing to offer MI-08 voters (except her interesting biography). On the issues that are motivating voters? Crickets... except her claim that she'll take "a common sense approach." She's as terrible a candidate as the DCCC routinely spits out and her only chance to win is if the anti-red wave sweeps Bishop away for her. It's a classic lesser of two evil race. She put out a strong TV today-- but it would be stronger if she supported Medicare-for-All.



Back to the anti-Slotkin ad up top, for a moment though, the one made and put on TV by the NRCC. John McCain's family isn't pleased that the NRCC used him in it. A family spokesperson told NBC News that "the McCain family believes it's unfortunate that the senator's image is being weaponized this election season. They hope that there would be more respect, especially so soon after his passing." Nor is it just the Michigan ad that they're pissed off about.

Here's another one the NRCC is running against another shitty DCCC candidate, New Dem Ann Kirkpatrick. The McCain part of the ad was from when he and she were locked in a U.S. Senate battle 2 years ago.



The NRCC is refusing to take either ad down, despitee the McCain family's requests. The chances of their weak candidate beating Kirkpatrick as the anti-red wave sweeps over Arizona is practically zero. Actually it's 1 in 15, not a very good bet for the NRCC-- and a stupid waste of money when they're already using triage to write off incumbents an other weak challengers in open seats like AZ-02.

Did you watch Samantha Bee talking about how the GOP uses gerrymandering and other techniques to win elections even when they get fewer votes? If you appreciate her style of comedy (I do), it's worth taking a look:

MI-08… Another Lost Opportunity For The Democrats Courtesy Of The Lamest DCCC Chair In History

I remember where I was when I found out the right-wingers in Dallas had had President Kennedy murdered-- walking up a stairwell at James Madison High School in Brooklyn. I also remember where I was when I heard that Mike Rogers would be announcing his retirement from Congress a few weeks ago-- at my station, texting with someone who was on the phone with a big shot in Michigan Democratic politics. I didn't care how big a shot he was, I said it is impossible. Rogers would never retire. Then I remembered that this was the guy who told me that Henry Waxman would retire a couple of days before he shocked the world. So I asked him who would run for Rogers' seat if he indeed did retire-- which, as you know, did announced he would do.

He told me that there was one Democrat who could probably win the red-leaning swing district, Lansing's progressive mayor, Virg Bernero who, he told me, was chomping at the bit to run. That prompted me to write this post on March 28. But that same texting buddy called me the next day and said, "Forget it. Bernero isn't going to run." But why, I wanted to know. He told me that, at the behest of the DCCC and the always troublesome EMILY's List, Michigan Democratic Party chairman, Lon Johnson, had pressured Bernero to stay out of the race-- not just mildly pressured, but really pressured. EMILY's List was whining to the DCCC that they wanted the nomination for Ingraham County clerk Barb Bynum and Israel, always filled with loathing for an outspoken progressive leader like Bernero, happily acquiesced. So Barb was offered the Democratic nomination on a silver platter-- and off she went to DC for her Beltway audition.

In the 8th Congressional District, former Michigan GOP Chairman Saul Anuzis decided not to run for the unexpected open seat created by the retirement announcement of U.S. Rep. Mike Rogers, R-Howell. For the Democrats, Lansing Mayor Virg Bernero also ended his short-lived consideration for office.

“So much is broken about Washington that it is tempting for me to contemplate a future trying to fix it,” Bernero posted on his Facebook page. “But my heart and my creative energies are committed to Lansing and its continued growth.”

…Ingham County Clerk Barb Byrum, D-Onondaga, returned this week from Washington, D.C., after a jam-packed schedule of meetings with Democratic groups and congressional leaders about a potential bid. She is expected to make her decision soon; Democratic leaders consider her their best hope to flip the seat compared with previously announced candidates Susan Grettenberger, a Central Michigan University associate professor, and former state demographer Ken Darga.

Yesterday it became clear that the audition hadn't gone that well and that Byrum won't be the candidate after all. "After carefully considering a run for Congress, I have determined that I can best serve the residents of Michigan by continuing my role as Ingham County Clerk. While partisan gridlock in Congress prevents anything meaningful from being accomplished, my work here in Michigan has a real effect on people’s lives and that’s what drives my commitment to public service. I appreciate the support from those encouraging me to run and look forward to working with them in the weeks and months ahead."

And because Johnson and Israel treated Bernero so shabbily, he's still saying he won't run. His dad isn't in the best of health and a race like this wouldn't be a walk in the park and would be impossible without a united front from the party, not something Johnson and Israel are offering. They deserve Christine Wallace as a candidate-- although Democrats in the district sure don't! So, another winnable seat down the tubes as Israel racks up the record that will be hard to ever beat as the worst DCCC chairman in history. My prediction: Israel's 2014 disaster will see him replaced as DCCC chair and Virg-- as well as other top tier candidates who are refusing to run while Israel is around-- will run, and win, in 2016.

With Mike Rogers Retiring, The Right Democrat Should Be Able To Win MI-08

Good riddance to corrupt McCarthyite stooge Mike Rogers (left)

For whatever reason, Steve Israel has a policy at the DCCC-- Thou Shalt Not Contest Elelections Against Senior Republican Policy Makers. No matter how vulnerable the districts, Israel has not allowed the DCCC to go after any committee chairs last cycle or this cycle. One of the worst of the Republican malefactors in a winnable district, Mike Rogers, announced he would be retiring from Congress today. The head of the Intelligence Committee, Rogers, a personally corrupt individual, has been a total shill for the forces of the Surveillance State. As we've explained in the past, his district is a classic swing district that could have been successfully contested by the DCCC, which gave him a free pass year after year. The backward-looking Cook Report rates it an R+2 but Obama won against McCain under the new gerrymandered boundaries 195,798 (52%) to 174,506 (46%) and only lost to local boy Mitt Romney 183,510 (51%) to 172,131 (48%). Even with Steve Israel sabotaging Democrat Lance Enderle's campaign last cycle, Enderle beat Rogers in the district's key county, Ingham, 62,785 (51%) to 46,919 (46%). In 2012, Obama swept Ingham County against former resident Mitt Romney 63-36%. Not exactly the kind of district the DCCC should be afraid to contest. As a poll done a few months ago for MoveOn.org showed, Rogers was very vulnerable:

This morning, Lew Dickey, CEO of Hate Talk Radio syndicator Cumulus, announced, "We are thrilled to have Chairman Rogers join our team. He has been instrumental helping to shape many of the most important issues and events of our time and will play a significant role in our expanding content platform." A former FBI agent, Rogers was elected to Congress in 2000.

Michigan Republicans have three cardboard characters they're interested in running, the former majority leader of the state Senate, Mike Bishop, the former Speaker of the House, Craid DeRoche and Rogers' older schlub brother, Bill. With Israel crony Rogers retiring, it is likely the DCCC will get off its ass and make an effort to win the district. I suspect they won't show any interest in the two declared candidates, Susan Grettenberger and Ken Darga, and will work hand in hand with EMILY's List and Lon Johnson to block Lansing's popular mayor, Virg Bernero, so they can insert some loser like Ingraham County clerk Barb Bynum, whose main qualification seems to be that her mother almost beat Rogers once. The DCCC… the committee of almost. "Almost" doesn't do anything… except make consultants richer.

In 2010, Rick Snyder beat Bernero for governor. A poll the following year showed that Bernero would win a do-over. How much of an improvement would Bernero be over Rogers? Watch this video: