Lon Johnson-- And The Art Of Writing Off A Congressional District

Lon and Juliana-- unlikely to take up residence in Marquette

by Cheboygan Charlie

By reviewing Michigan’s Democratic politics over the last three years, one thinks he or she is reading the screenplay to a soap opera, or a comedic soap opera, aka a sitcom. Wrong. A thorough review of recent Michigan Democratic Party political history is a narrative that could serve as the epitome of the problems with our current Democratic Party. Let’s start in 2012.

Lon Johnson, a failed Democratic political operative has come home to his native Michigan, leaving behind years of failures at organizations such as the DSCC and the DNC. He desperately wanted to be someone in this world. He thought that running for the State House of Representatives would be his pathway to stardom. Upon returning to Michigan, Lon went to his hometown, just south of Detroit. He was disappointed: All of the local districts were taken. What was he to do? Run for sherriff? Run for dog catcher? Tax collector? Postmaster?...

No, Lon quickly remembered that his family owned a fishing shack in the Northern Michigan county of Kalkaska. So he took out his handy State House district map, and noticed there was an R+8 seat held by a weak one-term Republican in the district in which his family owned a piece of property smaller than a chipmunk’s bedroom. Perfect, he thought.

Lon, having spent years alongside decently astute Beltway operatives, understood that it would take an unusual amount of money to pull off this victory. He never could raise this amount of cash in the district, as Northern Michigan is known to be extremely poor, desolate, and bleak: a place no one in their right mind would ever venture to.

Then he remembered that he had recently gotten married to one of the President’s senior political operatives, Julianna Smoot, who is one of the canniest and most successful fund-raisers in politics. He almost forgot that he was married to Julianna, as Julianna quickly moved to Chicago after marrying Lon 400 miles away in Michigan. So Lon got his wife’s blessing. More importantly, he got her promise that she would leverage her national financial connections, banksters such as Jamie Dimon and Robert Wolf, to fund her husband’s longshot bid in the middle of nowhere.

Long story slightly shorter, the people of Northern Michigan were not nearly as clueless and out of touch as Lon had hoped. People quickly began wondering what in the world this out-of-towner was doing in their district, let alone trying to represent them.

Lon misunderstood one of the most valuable rules in running for office: Understand your voters. But you can’t blame him, as this is one of the many things the Democratic Party forgets constantly and systemically. It's what they believe in.

Lon raked in money from ridiculous corners of the political money map. Bankers, financiers, hedge funders, Hollywood execs, even David Axelrod all gave to Lon Johnson. After all, he was Julianna Smoot’s husband. Lon lost, handily, and began drinking heavily, from what I’m told. After a few months of drinking and moose-hunting, he wanted back at it. The only question was, what exactly was it he wanted?

He deemed longtime State Party Chairman Mark Brewer as the perfect target. Now, even though Mark had some bad cycles, they were arguably not his fault; rank-and-file delegates in the party praised him for his unique intelligence and good faith. Lon, again taking the people for granted, began campaigning. No one bought it! After about a month on the trail, it was clear by a simple delegate count that he was screwed.

From what we here at DWT have heard from sources in Detroit, Lon was literally crying, not knowing what to do. Julianna, coming off her big Obama win and not wanting to see Lon weeping all the time, knew she had some leverage, and began pulling strings. Soon enough, the UAW took orders from DC and threw their support behind Lon. In Michigan Democratic politics, auto workers still have clout, and apparently had  enough to turn the election.

Lon became the party chairman, promising to lead the party to victory in 2014. (Please note that Mark Brewer dropped out of the race, so disgusted with what his party had become.) Again, long story short, the party lost almost every race. Lon listened to his bonehead loser friends in DC who said to clear every primary for the more conservative, Republican-light Democrat to run in. For example, Lon worked closely with Steve Israel to recruit gun-loving Guantanamo Bay brain child Sheriff Jerry Cannon to run in the northern-most congressional district: MI-1.

Because this race was so close in 2012, the DCCC intended to win this seat in 2014 by recruiting a Republican to run as a Democrat. Obviously, we know what usually happens in those scenarios.

However, Lon went even further than the DCCC in screwing up this situation. Lon, so certain that Jerry Cannon would be the next Bart Stupak, regularly drove up to Northern Michigan (remember, his family has a shack there) to hunt, fish, and drink with Sheriff Jerry. He wanted Jerry to work harder than ever, so Lon would blow smoke at him by saying how he was a future presidential candidate, etc.

After a year of failures on the campaign trail, it was clear none of Lon’s recruits had a shot, Jerry included, and the party pulled out of races north, south, east, and west. Jerry Cannon, still campaigning away up in the tundra of Marquette, Bessemer, Traverse City, Cheboygan, Petoskey, etc., was so heartbroken by Lon that he spent the last month of the campaign in his back yard, chopping wood and drinking beer.

However, in the midst of these failures Lon learned a slick lesson from his intelligent wife: Use your position to build a fund-raising list. Lon, while being paid by dues-paying Democrats, took the Democratic Party’s fund-raising list, which of course he did not build, and did the unthinkable: declared for Congress... in Michigan 1!!!

Lon thought he had successfully pulled a fast one. He had a feeling this would be a tough race in 2016, and now that he had stolen a fund-raising list, he was the man for the job. Only one problem: Sheriff Jerry sobered up and stopped chopping wood.

So now, the week when incumbent Republican nutjob Congressman Dan Benishek announces his retirement, priming this seat for a possible Democratic pickup, two right-wing Democratic hacks-- one-term party chair and perennial loser Lon Johnson and his hand-picked 2014 recruit Sheriff Jerry Cannon-- will have to spend down to zero in a primary, leaving one of them to go into the general election as  a broke, depleted nothing of a candidate.

For all his faults and the social backwardness he stood for, at least Bart Stupak was an economic populist. I never thought we'd wish he was back. But not some guy from Detroit who stands looking at himself in the mirror as he dresses up like him!


UPDATE: Mackinac Island In The News

Mackinac Island is part of MI-01. They hold an annual straw poll of Republican fat cats and activists. Tonight was the night. There were 785 people voting of the 2,200 in attendance. Rand Paul, who won last year, also won this year. He, Fiorina, Kasich, Cruz and Jeb were the featured speakers. And the scores were:

• Rand Paul- 22%
• Fiorina- 15%
• Kasich- 14%
• Cruz- 13%
• Jeb- 9%
• Rubio- 8.4%
• Trumpy- 6.8%
• Carson- 5.5%
• Walker- 2.6%

Everyone else scored under 1%.

Will Steve Israel-Recruit Jerry Cannon Be Brought To Trial For War Crimes After He Loses In November?

Founded in 1961, MIRS— Michigan Informantion and Research Service— isn’t meant to be for everyone. It’s a subscription only service for political insiders and it purports to provide “comprehensive news and analysis of state government delivered in written reports detailing the activities of the House, Senate, Judicial and Executive branches of Michigan state government.” They describe their own customer base as “Fortune 500 companies, lobbyists, government officials, law firms, local governments, universities, organized labor groups, statewide trade organizations and professionals who have to stay on top of changes in laws impacting any given area.”

This week, after learning about how furious— violently furious— conservative Democrat Jerry Cannon is at DCCC Chairman Steve Israel, a headline from MIRS caught my attention: Cannon Linked To Inhuman Treatment In Gitmo.

One of the appealing factors for a Jerry Cannon congressional campaign was his perceived squeaky clean record as a member of the military and the Kalkaska County Sheriff.

He told Politico last year that "I don't have a record that people can attack," which was a big reason national Democrats took such an interest in him.

However, the Democratic nominee in the 1st Congressional District, who is facing U.S. Rep. Dan Benishek (R-Crystal Falls) in one of the state's most competitive congressional races, may not be exactly devoid of controversy.

Cannon's name was wrapped into at least one civil suit regarding inhuman treatment at Guantánamo Bay's Camp Delta when he was the head of the detention detail from July 2003 to August 2004.

According to a Washington Post article from 2004, FBI agents and officials witnessed the use of growling dogs to intimidate detainees at Guantanamo Bay. In another instance from August 2004 at Camp Delta, a detainee is said to have been wrapped in an Israeli flag and bombarded with loud music in an attempt to soften his resistance to interrogation.

The New York Times reported in October 2004 that uncooperative prisoners at Camp Delta were told to "strip to their underwear, having them sit in a chair while shackled hand and foot to a bolt in the floor, and forcing them to endorse strobe lights and screamingly loud rock and rap music played through two close loudspeakers, while the air conditioning was turned up."

Cannon was named as a defendant in four different detainee lawsuits and named specifically in the closing arguments in the case of Mohammad Jawad by Major David J.R. Frakt.

"It is my recommendation that charges be preferred against MG Cannon under the MCMJ for cruelty, maltreatment and abuse, dereliction of duty and violation of a lawful order at the earliest opportunity," Frakt said. "He completely and utterly failed to prevent the flagrant abuse of a detained under his protection. It is high time that someone in a position of authority be held accountable, and not just the guards who were carrying out orders this time."

Jawad ended up staying in Gitmo until 2009 before a district court judge ordered his release back to Afghanistan after being found not guilty of the charges leveled against him.

To show that Cannon was aware of the tactics used at Camp Delta, America Rising referenced a Human Rights First article about how detainees were moved around eight times a day or every three hours with the goal of keeping detainees "off balance."

Apparently, Cannon and military leadership were aware of the "frequent flyer program," designed to deprive inmates of sleep, and no one questioned the program's legality.

During an interview with Roll Call a year ago, Cannon said the Red Cross checked off on its detention operation during their biannual inspections. "It was a great mission," he said. "I don't see that ever being an issue, that someone, if they really understand the entire circumstances, would think that could be a liability."

However, the New York Times reported on Nov. 30, 2004 that the Red Cross found techniques "tantamount to torture" after its June 2004 visit.

The prolonged exposure to the cold and loud music was designed to break the will of the detainees.

"The construction of such a system, whose stated purpose is the production of intelligence, cannot be considered other than an intentional system of cruel, unusual and degrading treatment and a form of torture," read the Red Cross report.

Cannon never had formal charges filed against him for anything he did or didn't do at Camp Delta.

Nate Nesbitt of America Rising said Cannon has told voters he doesn't have a record of note, when his background is one "that needs further examination and scrutiny."

"It's very important Michigan voters are aware of his numerous civil rights violations and questionable history," Nesbitt said.

We looked at what exactly America Rising is last week. The fact that they are a shady right-wing, for-profit Republican Party operation that specializes in political smears— they’re the ones who were caught doctoring Democrats’ wikipedia pages— doesn’t automatically mean everything they say is false. All the information about Cannon is independently verifiable. It doesn’t make Benishek any more appropriate to serve in Congress; it just makes it clear that thoughtful votes in Michigan’s first congressional district have no one to vote for at all. Thanks, Steve Israel and thanks Lon Johnson, Cannon’s drinking buddy and the chairman of the state Democratic Party.

Meanwhile, due south of MI-01, in the southwest corner of the state, the one Michigan House campaign in a competitive district that has not been wrecked by the “Steve Israel Effect” is Paul Clements’ effort in MI-06. That’s because Israel, a crony of toxic GOP incumbent Fred Upton, declared that even though MI-06 is the most winnable red seat in the state, he would not engage there. Instead of panicking, progressive Democrat Paul Clements put together Michigan’s best congressional campaign and has been making steady inroads against Upton. Today the two candidates will have their first debate. And today Lawrence Lessig's non-partisan, good government MayDay PAC did what a competent DCCC would have done— they released an independent expenditure in the form of a TV ad against Fred Upton, the first negative ad against Upton ever. They're spending $1.5 million in MI-06. Steve Israel and his corrupt and incompetent DCCC is spending exactly zero. I hope Pelosi spends some time thinking about that-- and extrapolating it to other districts around the country. Enjoy:



Despite Steve Israel and the DCCC, we can help bring this one home and beat one of the most dangerous and poisonous Republican policy-makers in Congress. Please consider giving what you can to Paul Clements' campaign.

Steve Israel Cutting More Of His Terrible Recruits Loose-- Jerry Cannon (MI-01)

Steve Israel picks candidates who disagree with these wild ideas-- and they lose

Back in May, the DCCC announced they had reserved $43.5 million in TV time for endangered incumbents like Blue Dogs John Barrow, Nick Rahall and Collin Peterson and for Steve Israel's mostly wretched, conservative, doomed recruits. One of his worst recruits, Michigan reactionary and anti-Choice nut Jerry Cannon-- the former commandante of the Guantánamo gulag-- was promised two big runs of negative ads against Republican incumbent Dan Benishek: $450,000 on Traverse City broadcast from Sept. 2 to Sept. 22, and $490,000 on Traverse City broadcast from Oct. 14 to Nov. 4. On top of that the ironically-named House Majority PAC controlled by Pelosi reserved another $375,306 for the weeks the DCCC wasn't up on the air (like now), $225,245 in Traverse City and $150,061 in Marquette.

So far the DCCC ran most of the ads from the first flight-- $417,662 worth to be precise, all of it in a negative attack ad against Benishek-- which prompted the U.S. Chamber of Commerce to dump $500,572 into the campaign opposing Cannon and bolstering Benishek. And last week the NRCC spent $162,836 on TV time attacking Cannon.

As of July 16, Benishek had raised $1,497,655 and Cannon had raised $647,734. At that time Benishek had $830,703 cash-on-hand to Cannon's $336,663. Cannon was counting on that second DCCC flight of ads-- $490,000-- plus the $375,306 from the House Majority PAC to make him competitive in the final weeks of the campaign. But there were no House Majority PAC ads running this week.

One of Israel's worst and most conservative recruits of the cycle, Cannon hasn't been able to get any traction outside of partisan Democrats. Without motivating independents in this R+5 district, Cannon isn't going anywhere. Roll Call reports that neither Cannon himself, the DCCC nor the House Majority PAC have bought or reserved airtime for the week of Sept. 30.

Cannon plans to be back on the air on Oct. 6, and the DCCC reserved another weeks-long window beginning Oct. 14.

The cancellation occurred several weeks ago, according to a Democratic insider. On Sept. 16, the National Republican Congressional Committee reserved $1 million in the Traverse City market.

Cannon was touted by Democrats as a top recruit. While he built a large war chest for his campaign, he was not among the top tier of his recruitment class’ fundraisers.

The DCCC is flush with cash but is realizing its recruitment was a bust and they're stuck with miserable candidates who can't win and aren't worth spending any money on. Last week they pulled the plug on Aaron Woolf in upstate New York's 21st CD, where right-wing New Dem Bill Owens decided to retire rather than be humiliated at the polls. Israel has given up on this one entirely and is allowing Elise Stefanik to walk into Congress in a district Obama won with 52% against McCain and 52% against Romney. Earlier, Israel told some of his other especially bad recruits-- like, CIA agents Kevin Strouse (PA-08) and Bobby McKenzie (MI-11), John Lewis (MT-AL), Bill Hughes (NJ-02) and Jennifer Garrison (OH-06), who he was rumored to be inappropriately intimate with-- that they are on their own and to expect no DCCC financial help. There have been rumors, unconfirmed, that Israel is also getting squirrelly about Ann Callis (IL-13), Pam Byrnes (MI-07), Amanda Renteria (CA-21) and, predictably, Sean Eldridge (NY-19). EXpect clarification over the next couple of weeks. Many congressional observers feel that Israel will see so many of his recruits underperforming and with virtually zero chance to win, that he'll hold onto the money or spend it on vulnerable incumbents. The House Majority PAC has been shifting significant money to protect unpopular incumbents like New Dem Ami Bera (CA), Blue Dog Nick Rahall (WV), Blue Dog John Barrow (GA), New Dem Elizabeth Esty (CT), and Raul Ruiz (CA)-- as well as large sums into CA-31, a D+5 district that would be a gimme except for the atrocious recruit, Pete Aguilar, one of Israel's biggest blunders.

The House Majority PAC just committed to spend $363,274 there, a district that they had hoped would have been all wrapped up by now. Last week, one of the sleaziest and most corrupt lobbying operations in the country had their PAC, the Credit Union National Association (which is, quite predictably, close with Israel) dump another $149,653 into an I.E. for Aguilar. The DCCC has already wasted $515,278 and so far the House Majority PAC has tossed in $86,823. Neither the NRCC nor any GOP-oriented outside groups have put in any money to help Aguilar's hapless opponent, Paul Chabot. By June 30, Israel had helped Aguilar raise $1,327,366, while Chabot only managed to bring in a meager $164,912. He had $26,342 cash-on-hand to Aguilar's $325,729. But even with an overwhelming registration advantage for the Democrats-- Obama won the district 57-41% in 2008 and the same in 2012 and the latest registration report shows 123,42 registered Dems (40.08%) to 104,673 registered Republicans (33.97%)-- Israel is so nervous that his pitiful recruit will blow the race again that he's likely to waste a million dollars in what would have been a freebie had progressive Eloise Reyes been the candidate, which she would have been without Israel's meddling on behalf of Aguilar. This is Aguilar; would you vote for him?

Steve Israel candidate

Is Steve Israel Helping The CIA Infiltrate Congress With Its Own Agents?

I don't know the answer to the question posed in the title above. I've been trying to find out and I've been tracking down several leads. The names that come up most frequently are Kevin Strouse, who like all CIA spies bills himself as an "ex-CIA analyst" and is running against Mike Fitzpatrick in Bucks County (PA-08); Bobby McKenzie, another former CIA spy who glosses over that and calls himself an "ex-US State Dept. Counterterrorism Official" and is running in MI-11 against Michigan's least attractive politician, Dave Trott the state's foreclosure king; and Jerry Cannon the former comandante of the Guantánamo gulag/torture prison who is running against GOP sad sack Dan Benishek way up in the sparsely populated, desolate Upper Peninsula of Michigan, flush up against Canada.

I spoke to one Bucks County political expert this morning about Strouse's CIA connections and he told me Strouse has no chance to win and that the DCCC, after recruiting him and pushing him against a plausible grassroots Democrat, Shaughnessy Naughton, has abandoned Strouse entirely. "There is no way," he told me, "that Strouse wins this race unless the CIA arranges to kill Fitzpatrick. I'm hearing Strouse is down by 20 points." 20 points?!!?! This is an R+1 swing district that Obama won 53-46% in 2008 and then fought Romney to a 49-49% head heat 4 years later. How does a Democrat-- even a crappy Steve Israel Mystery Meat candidate like Kevin Strouse lose a district like that by 20 points.

Meanwhile, as of the June 30 FEC filing deadline, Strouse had only raised $1,016,010 to Fitzpatrick's $2,482,114 and only had $268,721 cash-on-hand to Fitzpatrick's $1,906,830. The DCCC hasn't spent a dime on Strouse's behalf so far. However, the DCCC as reserved $1.9 million on Philadelphia broadcast from Oct. 21 to Nov. 4, which could mean ads for Strouse or Manan Trivedi (PA-06) or Aimee Belgard (NJ-03). Their House Majority PAC has reserved another $1.2 million for unspecified candidates in the Philly area. Despite the rumors that the DCCC has kicked Strouse to the curb, unlike some of the candidates that they have dumped, he's still on the most current Red-to-Blue list soliciting money for their candidates. I guess if Michael Fitzpatrick turns up dead or suddenly resigns for some bizarre reason, we'll know the CIA plan is operational.

Jerry Cannon has also been seriously underperforming as a candidate. He and Benishek last reported on July 16 and Benishek had raised $1,497,655 and had $830,703 on hand while Canon only raised $647,734 and had $336,663 on hand. This unlikely red-to-blue district has a PVI of R+5 and would be a steep climb for even a good Democratic candidate. Obama, though, did beat McCain, 50-48%, although he lost to Romney four years later 54-45%. (Benishek barely fended off his last challenge by another bad Democratic recruit, Gary McDowell, 167,060 to 165,179.) What McDowell and Cannon have in common is that they're both conservatives from the Republican wing of the Democratic Party. Is the CIA behind Cannon? I haven't found anything that would make me comfortable asserting as much, just rumors.

The DCCC has spent $237,304 in negative ads against Benishek so far, part of a $450,000 Traverse City broadcast from Sept. 2 to Sept. 22 they reserved. They have another $490,000 on hold for Oct. 14 through election day. Yesterday, Emily Cahn at Roll Call reported that the NRCC just reserved a million dollars worth of ad time in the district to defend Benishek and will start running them on Friday and not stop until November 4.

OK, now let's go back to MI-11, Kerry Bentivolio's mostly suburban district north and northwest of Detroit that includes parts of Oakland and Wayne Counties, an R+4 district but good hunting for a Democrat, especially with such an awful and indefensible candidate like Trott. But the CIA agent, or, supposedly, "ex"-CIA agent, McKenzie, just wasn't closing the deal. Trott, who wrote his campaign a casual $2,423,402 check for the primary, had $1,018,913 cash-on-hand on July 16. McKenzie only raised $375,432 and had $68,448 left after the primary, which shouldn't be enough to stay competitive. The DCCC hasn't spent any money in the district yet but they've reserved $850,000 in the Detroit broadcast market and $290,000 in the Lansing market between Oct. 21 to Nov. 4, money that could go to help McKenzie (who is no longer on their Red-to-Blue page at all) or Pam Byrnes (who the DCCC has reportedly given up on entirely). Strange. I suppose they could use the reservations to support Eric Schertzing against Mike Bishop in the district Mike Rogers is abandoning (MI-08, Ingham and Livingston counties, R+2 PVI) but there is no indication they are getting behind Schertzing or any other Michigan candidates.

And now the big "however" in this race. Someone (a CIA cutout, supposedly) persuaded Bentivolio to run as a write-in candidate and pull the extreme right away from Trott, who he really hates, so that McKenzie wins the seat. Yesterday, the Detroit Free Press reported that a very bitter Bentivolio just wants Trott to lose.

“Everywhere I went here at home or in D.C. I had a Trott tracker working for a self-serving, self-absorbed entitled bully,” Bentivolio said in an e-mail to the Free Press. “Now they want unity?”

In last month’s primary, Trott beat Bentivolio by nearly a 2-to-1 margin. In the race to represent a district widely considered to lean Republican, Trott faces Bobby McKenzie, a former U.S. State Department employee and the Democratic nominee, who Bentivolio said he also opposes.

Bentivolio told MIRS he was “pretty frustrated” by the loss and the amount of money Trott spent defeating him. He said he has been approached by “a lot of people out there” who want him to run as a write-in “because they don’t see much difference” between the two parties.

…[H]e e said that it’s difficult for him to listen to Republican Party calls for unity and support given that he was targeted for defeat by mainstream elements in the party when former U.S. Rep. Thad McCotter resigned abruptly in 2012 and left Bentivolio the only other GOP name on the ballot.

I'm trying to track down what Bentivolio meant exactly when he said he's being pushed to run by "a lot of people out there." It would mean a lot to the CIA and other intelligence entities to have one of their own-- or 3 of their own-- inside the branch of government charged with overseeing all the unconstitutional activities.

Steve Israel's Reptilian Tendencies... Enough To Win Back The House? Probably Not

Sometimes I get confused between the national committees-- the DCCC, DSCC, DNC, RNC, NRSC and NRCC-- and the Beltway pundits that service them, particularly Cook and Rothenberg. Rothenberg's column for Roll Call Monday was a riot. I especially laugh when he and Cook defer to the DCCC and call their ridiculous side-show races "top tier" which fools no one (except, apparently Nancy Pelosi) as the money is flittered away on absurd candidates in absurd races. I can't wait for them to analyze Steve Israel-favorite, Jennifer Garrison in bright red OH-06 (R+8). Israel's candidates are considered "strong" because they "lack voting records." Voters are considered too dumb to be offended by Israel's mystery meat garbage candidates.

Monday, Rothenberg's fantasy column, 6 Democratic House Candidates With Plenty of Potential was typical of someone trying to curry favor with the DCCC check writer.

He forgot to mention one of his "top tier" candidates with plenty of potential was the commandant of the Guantanamo gulag while people were being tortured, something Democratic primary voters, even in northernmost Michigan might be interested in knowing. I guess it wasn't in the DCCC press release Rothenberg was cribbing from. At least his description of Jerry Cannon wasn't position-free like the DCCC prefers. He's another Steve Israel selected conservative anti-Choice freak, just what Democratic donors are eager to contribute to, right?

[F]ormer Kalkaska County Sheriff Jerry Cannon, is also the least polished. And it’s that non-politician quality that could attract voters looking for a change from the conservative incumbent, Republican Rep. Dan Benishek.

Cannon, the Michigan 1st District hopeful who is 65, spent years in law enforcement and in the National Guard, and he presents himself as a “pro-life,” “strong national defense guy” who is “very conservative fiscally.” He’s down to earth, easy to underestimate and not particularly eloquent.

If he wins, Cannon will be one of those backbenchers you’ll overlook unless he bolts his party on a key vote. He probably wouldn’t be a strong challenger to a savvy, well-established incumbent-- but neither of those qualities describes Benishek, which makes this a top-tier race worth watching.

Friends in Montana have told me that John Lewis would be a Blue America nightmare and to sabe myself the anguish and not even contact him. He's worked for Max Baucus, arguably the worst Democrat in the Senate, for many years and is now looking to win the at-large Montana open House seat. He'll probably lose badly since no progressive in their right mind would vote for him. Rothenberg's description was jaw-dropping: "would make a terrific neighbor. Low-key, easy to talk to" and...

The challenger notes his differences with the White House on issues including cutting the number of nuclear warheads-- because of the impact on jobs in the state-- and promises to be “independent” if elected. But because he has been working for a Washington officeholder, Lewis doesn’t start with a completely clean slate. His prospects for next year depend on the strength of the eventual GOP nominee.

Nukes because… jobs?

Oh, what luck, Rothenberg did do a blurb on Jennifer Garrison. Bare in mind we're talking about a homophobic, antiChoice fanatic, beloved on the NRA and hated by Democrats, who call her Ohio's Sarah Palin, and who voted in the state legislature against raising the minimum wage. Rothenberg sees her as a legitimate top tier candidate: "Jennifer Garrison, who is challenging Rep. Bill Johnson in Ohio’s 6th District, is an attorney who served three terms in the state House, where she was widely seen as a conservative Democrat, particularly on social issues. That’s a good place for a Democrat to start in this district. She has been supported in the past by the National Rifle Association and Ohio Right to Life. The 51-year-old Democrat once favored defining marriage as between a man and a woman but says that her views have evolved and now supports civil unions.

"More tight-lipped and cautious when answering questions, she could benefit from relationships built when she started an organization of oil, gas and mineral rights landowners, and from her years of negotiating contracts on their behalf. But Romney carried the district by more than 9 points, and the president’s “war on coal” could still be a significant problem for Garrison."

NARAL Pro-Choice Ohio described her a little differently when she tried, unsuccessfully to compete in the Democratic Secretary of State primary a few years ago:

Jennifer Garrison currently serves in the Ohio House of Representatives and has a 0% rating from NARAL Pro-Choice Ohio.

Rep. Garrison showed just how extreme her anti-choice position is when she filled out the 2008 candidate questionnaire for Ohio Right to Life, saying she would:

• support legislation in Ohio to outlaw abortion (with only an exception to save a woman’s life),
• support legislation that would allow pharmacists to refuse to dispense emergency contraception, and
• support state funding for so-called “crisis pregnancy centers” that lie to women about the risks of abortion and never refer patients for abortion or birth control services.

Representative Garrison does not share our values. She has also voted against the minimum wage, has counted coal interests as a top-ten funder and would like to protect the rights of criminals to get their hands on guns.

LGBT groups aren't any more eager to see her win than women's groups. This is how the Gay People's Chronicle described her 4 years ago:

Garrison already has a rocky relationship with the LGBT community. She won her House seat by gay-baiting her predecessor, Nancy Hollister, in 2004.

Earlier that year, Hollister was the only Republican to vote against the so-called “defense of marriage act.” It was considered a courageous vote.

Garrison sent out mailings that read, “If you believe marriage is between one man and one woman, there’s something you should know about Nancy Hollister.”

The other side of the card said, “DOMA was enacted precisely to protect Ohioans from having to accept ‘marriages’ or ‘unions’ entered into in other states. Despite the value of DOMA, Nancy Hollister voted against it. Jennifer Garrison believes marriage is between one man and one woman and will fight to protect our values.”

In 2006, as a member of the House Education Committee, Garrison helped to kill an amendment that would have required Ohio schools to protect students from bullying for their sexual orientation or gender identity.

The anti-bullying bill passed without the LGBT protections.

An attorney, Garrison opposed EHEA last year, saying it is wrong to single out classes of people for protection. This is a common talking point that anti-gays use against equality laws, and is legally flawed.

Get any of that from what Rothenberg had to say about her? I wonder why not? By the way, when you contribute to the DCCC, you don't get to say, "Oh, by the way, don't give my money to any anti-Choice, anti-immigrant, anti-union, anti-LGBT wingnuts. In fact, more likely than not, that's exactly where your money will go. If you don't want to see someone like Jennifer Garrison in Congress, don't donate to the DCCC. That simple! Help real Democrats here instead... pick the ones you want and give them the contributions directly.

DCCC Still Refusing To Go Up Against Vulnerble Republicans In Michigan-- Wasting Time Trying To Take Out Benishek Again... This Time WIth The Former Head Of Guantánamo

The DCCC has recruited a candidate to run in Michigan's first congressional district. Who knows where ex-Kalkaska County Sheriff (1987) and retired Army Major General, commander of the Joint Detention Operations Group at Guantánamo Bay gulag, Jerry Cannon, stands on any issues? He has a protypical DCCC-style website with absolutely no information about any policies or political stands. He doesn't even indicate he's a Democrat. There's been plenty of coverage of the recruitment in Michigan but none of the newspaper articles indicates where he stands on a single issue, just that he wants to fight for the middle class, which is what every single politician on both sides of the aisle claims, no matter how untrue that is. Cannon will be running against Republican sophomore Ben Benishek in MI-01, the upper peninsular district that was formerly represented by conservative Democrat and anti-Choice fanatic, Bart Stupak. Republicans are accusing him of being "a liberal," but there's no reason that I can find to believe he is. He could be-- or he could be a conservative. I suppose it may dawn on some enterprising Michigan journalist to find out at some point.

As far as I can tell, Cannon is one of only two candidates the DCCC recruited to run against any of the right-wing Republican incumbents in Michigan so far this year-- the other being Pam Byrnes in MI-07 (Tim Walberg's district)-- although it doesn't make all that much sense that MI-01 is the district they should have singled out. There are several better opportunities they're ignoring. MI-01 has a daunting PVI: R+5. Obama did win there in 2008 (50-48%) but was defeated handily by Romney last year 54-45%. These are the Michigan districts held by Republicans and ignored by the DCCC that look as good or better as pick up opportunities:

MI-03- Justin Amash R+4- again, Obama beat McCain and lost to Romney

MI-04- Dave Camp R+5- Obama over McCain by 1 point; Romney beat Obama 53-45%

MI-06- Fred Upton R+1- Obama beat McCain by 8 points and lost to Romney by just 1

MI-08- Mike Rogers R+2- Obama beat McCain by 6 points and lost to Romney by 3

MI-11- Kerry Bentivolio R+4- Obama over McCain by 2 points and Romney over Obama by 5.

Benishek is an inconsequential backbencher of absolutely zero importance. Fine that the DCCC and their House Majority PAC unsuccessfully wasted $1,282,979 last year trying to replace him with reactionary Blue Dog Gary McDowell. But they ignored House Intelligence Committee chairman Mike Rogers, House Energy Committee Chairman Fred Upton and House Ways and Means Committee Chairman Dave Camp, three of the most senior policy makers in Republicanville... and really bad policies, I might add.

So far there has been no discernible DCCC recruitment activity against any of these chairmen, despite the bluer nature of their districts than Benishek's. Amash, Camp, Upton, Bentivolio and perhaps Camp are all facing primaries though. The grassroots progressive running against Upton, Paul Clements, has gotten no encouragement, let alone substantive help, from the DCCC. Upton, like Rogers and Camp, are friends of Steve Israel's and he has forbidden the DCCC to take them on this year-- as he did last year.

If you'd like to do the DCCC's job for them, you can help Paul Clements beat Fred Upton here.

Connie Saltonstall Drops Out Of Race In Michigan

We had high hopes for Connie Saltonstall's challenge to Bart Stupak. This morning, having driven Stupak himself out of the race, she also threw in the towel under pressure from the Michigan Democratic Party, no doubt under pressure from the DCCC. Connie's announcement:

I regretfully announce that I am withdrawing from the Democratic primary for the U.S. Representative in Michigan's First Congressional District.

I am forced to do this because it has become apparent to my campaign that the leadership of the Michigan Democratic Paarty has preemptively anointed Gary McDowell as their Democratic candidate. They are replacing Bart Stupak with another Upper Peninsula, Anti-Choice, Anti-Women's healthcare rights candidate. From past experience I realize that with the Michigan Democratic Party actively opposing me, I will not be able to raise the money necessary to conduct a winning campaign. I am not the only candidate that has been the target of this kind of manipulation. I hope that in the future the Party will reject this interference and insist on an open primary allowing voters to choose the candidate who represents their values.

I challenged Bart Stupak because he was threatening to take down the healthcare bill. His amendment threatened access for women to get health insurance even with private funds. There is an aggressive movement across the country to pass laws to restrict women from making responsible healthcare choices to protect their health, and furthermore, to criminalize their actions. The same people who think government should stay out of their lives, are legislating government into the doctor's office. Individuals, families, and physicians are the ones who should be making the complicated and difficult decisions we all face regarding reproductive healthcare and life issues.

While I think Gary McDowell is a very nice person, I cannot support his anti-choice politics, and I cannot support a party that endorses candidates who vote to restrict women's legal rights and access to healthcare. It is time for Democrats to stop compromising on this issue. I am proud that my campaign has raised the dialogue on healthcare and cgoice, and I will continue my leadership role concerning these issues.

I want to thank all my supporters in the First District and across the nation who contributed their time, money, endorsements, and good wishes for my campaign. We were first in the race, raised more money than any other Democratic candidate to date, collected over 1,500 petition signatures, put together a professional campaign team and a path to victory. Without the interference of the Democratic leadership, we might just have won the election!

I'm stunned and disappointed. I always believe Stalanism should be fought. The Michigan Democratic Party is waving around some poll they took-- paid for by the slimebags at the DCCC, of course-- which "proves" Connie couldn't win. Of course, the question about her describes her as a "socialist." Remind me again what makes the Democratic Party insiders any better than the Republican Party insiders. Please send a message to the Democratic Party by helping defeat some of Debbie Wasserman Schultz's favorite conservatives, like Lori Edwards, John Barrow, Jane Harman, Blanche Lincoln and Katrina Swett.

Everyday Should Be Connie Saltonstall Day

Today is the infamous "end of the quarter" for congressional filings. "OMG!" candidates will tell you. "It's now or never!" If only! Tomorrow is even more important-- the first day of the even more crucial next quarter. Screw the DCCC desperate e-mails trying to get you to donate money on behalf of healthcare and Wall Street reform only to see them channel virtually all of it to understandably unpopular conservative Blue Dogs and other faux Dems who have brazenly voted against healthcare reform and against bankster reform, from Larry Kissell (NC), Bobby Bright (AL), Walt Minnick (ID), John Adler (NJ), and Suzanne Kosmas (FL), to John Barrow (GA), Travis Childers (MS), and Glenn Nye (VA). And then there's Bart Stupak. North Michigan conservative Bart Stupak has become a cartoon character villain for progressives nationally, primarily because he was willing-- even eager-- to work with Republicans to tank healthcare reform if he couldn't use it as a vehicle to impinge on women's right to choice and privacy based on a bizarre set of cult-like "religious convictions" he shares with some of the most dangerous far right elements in the country.

As you may know, Blue America has a page dedicated to sending Democrats a message and contributing to Connie Saltonstall's primary campaign against Stupak is a music it is very healthy for Inside-the-Beltway Democrats of all stripes to hear. This morning I spoke with Connie and asked her if she'd do a guest post about why her race is more important than ever, even though pressure from Democrats forced Stupak to eventually vote for the healthcare reform bill. This is how she put it:

We all know by now that Bart Stupak finally gave in, dropped the ‘Stupak Amendment,’ and voted for the healthcare bill. While I applaud his vote, it does not change my determination defeat him in the Michigan primary on August 3rd.

Representative Stupak’s reluctant support of healthcare reform came at a very high cost.

Mr. Stupak’s dogmatic insistence on inserting his own religious views into the legislative debate and threatening to deprive his constituents of needed healthcare reform eroded people’s trust in him. Throughout the debate there was the sense that our Congressman let us down and that sense has not disappeared with the change in his vote. For me and so many of his constituents, he crossed the line with his grandstanding.

My campaign is about getting past the kind of political obstruction that marred the healthcare debate. I look forward to working in Congress to represent the Democratic values of the First District-- affordable, accessible healthcare for all, healthcare that allows women the opportunity to make responsible life decisions for themselves and their families, protecting our Great Lakes and other precious natural resources, and fighting to put people in our district, so hard hit by this recession, back to work.

Since announcing my candidacy I have been overwhelmed and humbled by the enthusiasm, support and outreach for my campaign, both nationally and locally. People from all over the district are calling daily offering to donate and do anything they can to help. Political pundits like to say that someone from the lower peninsula cannot win in Michigan’s First District. I don’t believe that. I have heard from people all the way from Gogebic County in the Northwest of our district to Bay County in the southeast of our district. We are all Michiganders and our commonalties are far more important than our differences. I am here to give the people of Michigan’s First District a choice!

And Blue America wants to help her do just that. Please consider helping Connie, not because this is the last day of the quarter, but because we just have to save the Democratic Party and our country from characters like Bart Stupak.

Connie Saltonstall's Perspective on Stupak's Annoucement That He'll Vote "Yes" On Healthcare Reform

Desperate and scared about his career longevity, Bart Stupak, sought a face saving way of being able to vote yes in the hopes of derailing Connie Saltonstall's grassroots-fueled primary. President Obama agreed to sign an executive order that reiterates the odious Hyde Amendment. Nothing new there. And Stupak, who had already been abandoned by most of his anti-Choice band, was happy to announce he would vote yes. I asked Blue America endorsed Democrat, Connie Saltonstall to share her read on his actions today.

I’m pleased that Bart Stupak has announced he will vote for Healthcare reform. This bill will create a real difference in Michigan’s First District with provisions that extend healthcare coverage to 44,000 uninsured residents, protect 1,100 families from bankruptcy due to unaffordable health care costs, grow jobs by extending tax credits to small businesses, and improve Medicare for 141,000 beneficiaries, including closing the prescription donut hole.

However, it appears that there is nothing new in the executive order that wasn’t already in the Senate bill. This means Stupak’s obstructive maneuvering and threats could have been avoided and saved the Democratic party and process much time and effort. Stupak has promised to continue this fight. In the August 3rd primary, Democrats will have the choice of voting against this kind of representation. They will have a choice to vote for Connie Saltonstall who supports universal health care and allowing women the opportunity to make responsible life decisions for themselves and their families.

Please consider helping Connie to win the race for the House seat representing MI-01. You can do it here. People in northern Michigan deserve a member of Congress who has them on his mind, not his own religious hang-ups and not the insidious agenda of the C-Street cult.

The Republicans are on the floor as I write claiming the health care bill is a pro-abortion bill. They sound demented. Here's the statement today from Planned Parenthood's president, Cecile Richards:

“We regret that a pro-choice president of a pro-choice nation was forced to sign an Executive Order that further codifies the proposed anti-choice language in the health care reform bill, originally proposed by Senator Ben Nelson of Nebraska. What the president’s executive order did not do is include the complete and total ban on private health insurance coverage for abortion that Congressman Bart Stupak (D–MI) had insisted upon. So while we regret that this proposed Executive Order has given the imprimatur of the president to Senator Nelson’s language, we are grateful that it does not include the Stupak abortion ban.“

Stupak Stigmata And The Martyrdom Of A Deranged Cultist

Bart sees himself as a martyr now, rather than as an asshole

Michigan mishuganah, Bart Stupak, a putative Democrat from the northernmost reaches of that state-- 1% African-American, less than 1% Hispanic and 0.4% Asian-- joined Washington's most dangerous religious cult, The Family, and flipped out. He then figured out he could sabotage the Democratic Party entirely by wrecking the president's #1 agenda item-- healthcare reform-- by working with fellow C-Street cultist, Joe Pitts (R-PA), to falsely paint the healthcare reform bill as a trick to make abortion opponents pay for poor women's abortions. He's been working directly with the Republicans and right-wing elements to bring down the bill-- and the party-- something applauded Inside-the-Beltway as "bipartisanship."

As you know, anger has been building and building and exploded last week into a primary challenge from Connie Saltonstall. In less than a week, she has already raised over $50,000 online, more than $15,000 of it from Blue America. Stupak is freaking out now and realizes he could actually lose his seat over this.

He's complaining that his life has become a living hell, with his phone lines "jammed" with angry pro-choice and/or pro-health care callers and his wife has become so disconcerted that she's had to disconnect the family phone, an unlisted number, which seems to indicate that even their own friends are calling them to complain about Stupak's nefarious role in the healthcare debate.

“All the phones are unplugged at our house — tired of the obscene calls and threats. She won’t watch TV,” Stupak said during an hourlong interview with The Hill in his Rayburn office. “People saying they’re going to spit on you and all this. That’s just not fun.”

...“How’s it been? Like a living hell,” Stupak said.

The 57-year-old Democrat said he has a history of working behind the scenes with Democratic leaders on abortion.

“In the past, we’ve always been able to work it out,” he said. “This is the first time we’ve not been able to work it out.”

Other anti-abortion-rights Democrats have said they’ll support the Senate bill.

Rep. Dale Kildee, another Democrat from Michigan known for opposing abortion, released a statement on Wednesday supporting the Senate bill, which he said would prevent federal funds from going to abortion services.

But the intensity of the resistance to Stupak’s position has, if anything, stiffened his resolve. He shows no signs of voting for the Senate healthcare bill, which could hit the House floor this week.

“I’m pretty stubborn,” said Stupak, who keeps in his shirt pocket a list of lawmakers who are willing to vote no. The so-called Stupak Dozen met Tuesday morning on Capitol Hill to strategize and exchange stories of the pressure they are under.

Today Stupak tried making a deal with the leadership-- to vote for the bill, in the hope of slowing down the tidal wave of support Connie has been getting for standing up to his shameless bullying, in return-- listen to this-- for them letting him bring up his anti-Choice bill every single year. And he says if they agree, he can deliver useful idiot Marcy Kaptur as well. So far they've told him to go take a hike. We'll see. Meanwhile, please continue to support Connie's campaign. It certainly seems to be having an impact-- and sending the Democrats a message they can understand.

At about 8 minutes in, Rachel Maddow explains the battle between Stupak and almost 60,000 Catholic nuns. (Earlier she chats with Ezra Klein about the missing CBO numbers which, as you probably know, are no longer missing-- and are awesome, numbers that would even be hard for honest fiscal conservatives to vote against... if there were any. In fact, I watched demented Oklahoma anti-healthcare fanatic Tom Coburn publicly threatening to "get" any Republican in the House who breaks rank with the zombie-army and votes for the bill, regardless of the fact that it would bring the deficit down by $1.3 trillion.



And, in case you missed it yesterday, Stupak's own committeeHouse Commerce and Energy , came out with a review of the impact of the bill on Stupak's constituents, the very people who are now encouraging Connie to run. Highlights of what the bill will achieve in Northern Michigan's first CD:

* Improve coverage for 364,000 residents with health insurance.

* Give tax credits and other assistance to up to 197,000 families and 17,900 small businesses to help
them afford coverage.

* Improve Medicare for 141,000 beneficiaries, including closing the donut hole.

* Extend coverage to 44,000 uninsured residents.

* Guarantee that 10,000 residents with pre-existing conditions can obtain coverage.

* Protect 1,100 families from bankruptcy due to unaffordable health care costs.

* Allow 50,000 young adults to obtain coverage on their parents’ insurance plans.

* Provide millions of dollars in new funding for 41 community health centers.

* Reduce the cost of uncompensated care for hospitals and other health care providers by $102
million annually.

You know about the C Street cult, right?

Blue America Welcomes Connie Saltonstall

I woke up early in the morning a few days ago and saw that finally someone in Michigan's vast first congressional district had decided to step up and stop letting anti-Choice fanatic Bart Stupak get a free ride to re-election. On seeing a brief news item about Connie Saltonstall running for Congress, I was on the phone with her in half an hour, ascertained she was of a distinctly progressive bent, and had her on the Blue America Sending Democrats A Message ActBlue page within an hour. Since then close to 200 people have contributed over $5,000 to her campaign. These were primarily people who didn't know much about Connie, but knew all they would ever need to know about Bart Stupak.

Within a day or two Digby was winging her way east to sit down, face-to-face, with Connie and... well, see what she was made of. A couple days later, Digby, John and I sat down and decided that Connie merits a full scale Blue America endorsement. We added her to our candidates page and she's already gotten another 160 donations and, again, over $5,000. Today at 3pm (est/noon on the West Coast) Connie will be doing her first ever live blog session. It's being hosted by Digby at Crooks and Liars. NOW, one of the biggest and most important women's advocacy groups in the nation, just endorsed her this morning. They said, in part:

The National Organization for Women Political Action Committee is proud to announce our endorsement of Connie Saltonstall for Congress, representing Michigan's 1st District. Saltonstall is taking on reproductive rights foe and health care reform obstructer Rep. Bart Stupak in the state's Democratic primary this August.

What a relief that a courageous feminist candidate stepped up to the plate to challenge the co-author of the anti-choice Stupak-Pitts Amendment. Thanks to Connie Saltonstall, Stupak's bullying attempts to use health care reform as an opportunity to restrict women's access to abortion will be contested at the polls. Saltonstall stated: "I believe that [Stupak] has a right to his personal, religious views, but to deprive his constituents of needed health care reform because of those views is reprehensible."

Saltonstall is a strong supporter of the full range of feminist issues, including reproductive justice, affirmative action, pay equity, constitutional equality and equal marriage rights. More specifically, she is in favor of repealing the Hyde Amendment, fully funding the re-authorization of the Violence Against Women Act, rescinding the Defense Of Marriage Act, expanding the Family and Medical Leave Act to add paid leave, and undoing the Bush-era damage done to Title IX.

There have been plenty of naysayers-- "she can't win" (which reminded me of how the battle started when we decided to back Donna Edwards against Al Wynn) and "he's entitled to his religious beliefs," being two of the most persistent comments-- but the folks who have been donating this week see an opportunity to hold a faithless politician who has gone way too far accountable.

Stupak has worked closely with conservatives to build a coalition to hold healthcare reform hostage, insisting that the bill will force Americans to pay for abortions, an out and out lie straight from John Boehner's messaging shop. Sadly, the bill will actually restrict women's ability to purchase insurance coverage for abortions, even with their own money. This was the result of a wrenching compromise by the pro-choice members of Congress who reluctantly acquiesced to the unreasonable demands of the minority so that millions of uninsured Americans might have access to health care. But that wasn't good enough for Mr. Stupak, who continues to lie about the provisions of the bill and is committed to vote with the Republicans who are determined to make healthcare reform President Obama's "Waterloo." Stupak refuses to take yes for an answer.

Well, as Digby pointed out to Blue America donors, Bart Stupak isn't good enough for a frustrated constituent named Connie Saltonstall, who waited patiently for months for someone to step up as Stupak waged his quixotic crusade against reproductive rights on the backs of the uninsured. When no one did, she finally decided that she had no choice but to challenge him herself. She says,

"Our Congressman has let us down. Bart Stupak has threatened to block healthcare reform unless the Amendment that bears his name is included in the final bill. I believe that he has a right to his personal, religious views, but to deprive his constituents of needed healthcare reform because of those views is reprehensible."

Saltonstall is an experienced and qualified politician having served in various capacities in Michigan politics for decades. More importantly, she is a person of deep commitment to progressive politics who not only believes that it's not too much to ask that the Democratic party protects a woman's constitutional right to privacy and provide health care for everyone at the same time, but that the progressive agenda can best deliver to her friends and neighbors what they need to get through these tough economic times, preserve their liberty and keep America a strong, tolerant, future-oriented nation.

Blue America is proud to endorse Connie Saltonstall for Congress. We hope that you'll join us for a live chat at CrooksandLiars.com at 3PM, meet Connie for yourself and gage how much you want to participate in this campaign. The future of the health care reform bill, the Democratic Party and the country are at stake and regardless of the outcome when the vote is finally taken, Bart Stupak has proven that he is willing to go to any length to impose his personal religious views on the whole country. If you feel, as we do, that this is not in keeping with the fundamental values of the Democratic Party, then a donation to Connie Saltonstall's campaign is the best way to ensure that he no longer has the opportunity to do it.




UPDATE: And By The Way The Healthcare Reform Bill Would Benefit The Residents of MI-01 Tremendously

The Commerce and Energy Commttee has come out with a review of the impact of the bill on Stupak's constituents, people who are now encouraging Connie to run. Highlights of what the bill will achieve there:

* Improve coverage for 364,000 residents with health insurance.

* Give tax credits and other assistance to up to 197,000 families and 17,900 small businesses to help
them afford coverage.

* Improve Medicare for 141,000 beneficiaries, including closing the donut hole.

* Extend coverage to 44,000 uninsured residents.

* Guarantee that 10,000 residents with pre-existing conditions can obtain coverage.

* Protect 1,100 families from bankruptcy due to unaffordable health care costs.

* Allow 50,000 young adults to obtain coverage on their parents’ insurance plans.

* Provide millions of dollars in new funding for 41 community health centers.

* Reduce the cost of uncompensated care for hospitals and other health care providers by $102
million annually.

But Stupak is still insisting on joining the GOP obstructionists in opposition.

Is Healthcare reform On The Verge Of Passing? Or Will Jim DeMint Be Proven Right About Obama's Waterloo?

Does Democratic whip Jim Clyburn know something about anti-Choice fanatic Bart Stupak that no one else does? Yesterday on Meet the Press Clyburn predicted that Stupak would vote for the final bill. "There will be no federal funds for abortion," Clyburn reiterated, the Democratic position from the earliest negotiations. "And I think that most people that look at this have now come to that conclusion. And I do believe that Congressman Stupak will end up voting for this bill because I think he's going to be very comfortable with it in the coming days."

But while more and more Democrats have been rallying to Connie Saltonstall, the former Charlevoix County commissioner who just decided to run a primary race against Stupak, he ran to his anti-choice conservative allies whining that the Democratic leadership has been ignoring his deranged and infantile outbursts. "They're ignoring me," he complained to the neo-fascist National Review. “That’s their strategy now. The House Democratic leaders think they have the votes to pass the Senate’s health-care bill without us. At this point, there is no doubt that they’ve been able to peel off one or two of my twelve. And even if they don’t have the votes, it’s been made clear to us that they won’t insert our language on the abortion issue... I am a definite 'no' vote. I didn’t cave. The others are having both of their arms twisted, and we’re all getting pounded by our traditional Democratic supporters, like unions."

Unions have defended and supported Stupak. If he wants to demonize them in the right-wing media, he must really be feeling the heat. Just by mentioning that Connie was in the race, Blue America has raised nearly $4,500 for her in a few days. Now that Digby has traveled to meet her in person and speak with her about a broad range of issues, kick the tires and determine that she's of good character, our PAC will be formally endorsing her on Wednesday morning. (She'll be live blogging with us at Crooks and Liars at 3pm (EST/12pm PT). Stupak realizes he's now turned himself into another Joe Lieberman or Blanche Lincoln. He's pissed off the base so badly that it will be difficult for him to ever win an election again.

Picture DeMint, McConnell, Boehner & Lindsey onstage

Although Boehner, a guest on CNN's State of the Union yesterday claimed that Pelosi doesn't have the 216 votes she needs to pass healthcare reform, Pelosi disagrees and Clyburn says he's confident that they will have the votes when the vote is taken. White House Press Secretary Robert Gibbs was on Fox News Sunday predicting that within one week healthcare reform would be "the law of the land." But the latest Hill report sounds like a real gut-wrenching drama

More than a few politically vulnerable lawmakers, such as freshman Rep. Tom Perriello (D-Va.), appear torn.

On Wednesday night, Pelosi cornered Perriello for an intense conversation on the House floor.

Asked about that conversation, Perriello walked away, telling The Hill that he “wouldn’t talk about healthcare.” Perriello, who is in a tossup race, voted yes last fall.

The enormous media attention on healthcare reform doesn't make the members' situations any easier.

Some members have expressed their views to hometown newspapers while others have kept mum. For example, Rep. Betsy Markey (D-Colo.), a no vote last November, has declined to talk to the Denver Post about her position.

Supposedly Markey wanted to vote "yes" in November but was warned by her own leaders that it was too risky in her district and forced her-- tears in her eyes-- to vote "no." She then ran and joined the Blue Dog caucus. Now she's in a pickle.

The pressure will be most intense on the Democrats from the classes of 2006 and 2008. These members are the most vulnerable in the midterm elections and are considered more likely to be persuaded by Democratic leaders, including Obama.

A yes vote could help them climb the ladder in the Democratic Party. Yet, it could also be a liability in the elections.

Freshman Rep. John Boccieri (D-Ohio), a GOP target who voted no last year, told Foxnews.com, "I'm not afraid to cast a tough vote and I'm not afraid to stand up to leadership in doing so."

...Little over two weeks ago, freshman New York Democratic Rep. Michael McMahon told the Staten Island Advance that he didn’t “see anything” in the president’s revamped healthcare proposal “to have me come off my ‘no’ vote."

But since then, his position has shifted somewhat.

Noting that the Democratic Caucus hadn't seen the actual bill yet, McMahon said he "can't say finally" how he will vote but "you know I didn't vote for the health bill the first time."

Asked if he was "undecided" or "leaning no," McMahon joked, "Is there a place in between?"

Then he responded, "I'm leaning no."

According to The Hill's tracking of member positions, 35 Democrats say they are going to vote no or are likely to vote no. Another 73 are publicly undecided.

Of course, it is impossible to read the minds of legislators, and it is highly probable that some undecided Democrats have decided. For tactical and other reasons, they are deciding to keep their votes to themselves-- and perhaps Democratic leaders.

Likewise, there are certainly some Democrats in the no/leaning no category who could be persuaded.

But not all of them.

Rep. Dan Boren (D-Okla.), who voted no in November, has said he is an absolute firm no this time around. Rep. Gene Taylor (Miss.), one of the most conservative Democrats in the lower chamber, has repeatedly promised his constituents he will vote no. Similarly, there is no chance that Rep. Artur Davis (D-Ala.) will vote yes. Davis represents a district that Obama won with 71 percent of the vote, but is running to win the governor's mansion in a state that gave Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) over 60 percent in the 2008 presidential race.

Don't you wish there were men and women as courageous as Connie Saltonstall in all these districts? Wouldn't you love to see a forthright Democrats stand up against Boren. At least Democrats in the Alabama gubernatorial primary have an opportunity to Just Say No to Davis and end his disgraceful political career. And for the rest of us... please Send A Message Democrats Will Understand. Connie: “Our Congressman has let us down. Bart Stupak has threatened to block healthcare reform unless the Amendment that bears his name is included in the final bill. I believe that he has a right to his personal, religious views, but to deprive his constituents of needed healthcare reform because of those views is reprehensible.” She believes that voters in Michigan’s 1st CD will support a candidate who will work for them on the important issues of job creation, heath care, education, infrastructure maintenance and improvements, and protecting the environment. (They take the threats to the Great Lakes eco-system very seriously in MI-01). “Michigan and the First District are facing enormous challenges and we cannot afford to sacrifice solutions for individual agendas. Stupak is co-chair of the Pro-Life Caucus and is putting their interests above those of his district. No federal funds have been used for abortions since 1977, and that provision will stay in effect without his amendment. In my opinion, Bart Stupak has shown that he is willing to block important legislation to support his own agenda at the expense of those he was elected to represent.”



Update: Backing Grayson

Marcy Winograd, who is running for Congress against corporate Blue Dog Jane Harman, is urging all House members to get behind Alan Grayson's legislation to allow Americans to buy into Medicare at cost. The last we checked there were 60 co-sponsors. Marcy told us she would have been the first co-sponsor to sign on if she were in Congress. Although residents of CA-36 strongly favor meaningful healthcare reform with a public option (or single payer), Harman has refused to co-sponsor Grayson's bill, although is likely to do it if Marcy keeps campaigning about it as she has been doing all week.

"By all means, Americans should be allowed to participate in an already-established single-payer system that cuts waste while offering quality health care. Unfortunately, my opponent Jane Harman has yet to co-sponsor this much-needed bill, despite her pledges to support a public option. In Congress, I will champion efforts to make Medicare available to anyone who wants to participate."