Blue Wave Headed Toward Florida?

The last attempt to fix some of Florida's severe gerrymandering problems created a new district up north, the fifth, that connects most of Tallahassee with most of Jacksonville and goes as far west into the panhandle as Chattahoochee. The PVI is D+12. Hillary eviscerated Trump here, 61.3% to 35.9%, Trump's worst performance in northern Florida. The first congressman elected from the new district was conservative Democrat Al Lawson, former "dean" of the state Senate.

ProgressivePunch, which grades him "F" shows that he, Blue Dogs Stephanie Murphy and Charlie Crist has the worst voting records of any Florida Democrats. A New Dem, he has the 9th worst voting record among House Democrats, made worse by the fact that he represents a deep blue Democratic district.

Normally we would over the moon that anyone as far to the right as Lawson has a primary challenge. Unfortunately his challenger, Alvin Brown, is another conservative Democrat. When Brown was elected mayor of Jacksonville in 2011 he became the first African-American mayor in Jacksonville's history and the first Democrat to be elected to the position since 1991. He was so conserative that many Democrats didn't bother coming out to the polls in 2015 and he was defeated for re-election by Republican Lenny Curry. So... yes, Al Lawson is absolutely terrible. But is it worth replacing him with someone likely to be almost as bad (if not just as bad)? Especially when a new Gravis poll showed much better news coming out of Florida this week.

The much better news is that the progressive running for governor, Andrew Gillum, is now leading in the primary and leading any Republican running for the nomination! Polling was conducted between May 31 and June 15. It found that "Florida voters are to the left of center. Voters oppose a complete abortion ban 53%-29%, a twenty-week ban 42%-39% and support LGBTQ protection from discrimination 55%-22%. They are, however, tightly split over support for sending the National Guard to the U.S.-Mexican border 45%-44%. Uncertainty remains among three issue that will be put before voters in November. Support for the citizen initiative process being the exclusive method for authorizing casinos in Florida is split at 26%-25%. Restoring voting rights for felons sits just over the required 60% threshold at 61%-30%. Finally, voters support an initiative to ban all offshore drilling 52%-29%... Voters have soured on the Republican tax reform law. In March, support was 36%-37% and has now fallen to 38%-47%. Voters indicate that they are less likely to support a candidate that supported the bill by a 42%-36% spread.

At the same time, incongruously, Trump's approval rating has gone up-- from 41%-48% in March to 48%-52% today. "Voters are split over the performance of their other elected officials. Governor Rick Scott is slightly below water at 48%-50% while Rubio is farther in the red at 39%-56%. Voters are mixed on incumbent Democratic Senator Bill Nelson at 47%-44%." And here's where it gets exciting. Gillum, the progressive in the gubernatorial race is now leading his conservative rivals. Blue America has endorsed Andrew and you can contribute to his campaign by clicking on the 2018 gubernatorial thermometer on the right. Gillum is the most viably progressive candidate for governor in Florida’s history. He has plans to make healthcare more affordable through Medicare for All, increase spending on education and workforce training through a corporate tax adjustment and marijuana legalization, and raise the minimum wage in Florida to $15 an hour. He has helped high school students get registered to vote in the aftermath of the Parkland tragedy and, as mayor of Tallahassee, has been sued by the gun lobby twice and won both times.

Voters are beginning to decide on choices for the August Gubernatorial primaries. Undecided levels fell from 60% to 43% on the GOP side and 64% to 27% on the Democratic side. The previous poll showed Philip Levine ahead in the Democratic field 13%-11% for Andrew Gillum and 9% for Gwen Graham. The new poll shows Gillum taking the lead at 29% with Philip Levine falling to third place at 17% and Gwen Graham rebounding to 24% in second place. Gillum appears to have weathered some damaging news cycles and is now leading the pack as voters are possibly responding well to his recent debate performance, though the June 9th debate was towards the end of the field period for this poll.

“Gillum is clearly performing well in the debates and Democratic primary voters are taking notice” said Gravis Marketing Managing Partner Doug Kaplan. “The progressive wing of the party is behind him in this very close race between Gillum, Graham and Levine. Billionaire Jeff Greene is about to shakeup the race with his campaign launch.”

In the Republican field, Adam Putnam has reclaimed the lead over Ron DeSantis 29%-19%. Richard Corcoran (4%) and Bob White (5%) are currently well behind the top-two. Kaplan remarked that “The attacks on DeSantis are obviously working. Opponents have poured in money to convince Republicans that DeSantis is weak on immigration and somewhat liberal.” Kaplan concluded that “We predicted that the attacks on DeSantis were underreported and he was being damaged. One question that is up in the air is whether Trump’s endorsement will be enough to overcome those attacks.”

Moving to the general election, Democrats appear to be gaining ground on retaking the Florida Governor’s Mansion for the first time since Lawton Chiles defeated Jeb Bush in 1994. While Gwen Graham is currently performing the best in general election match-ups, both Gillum and Levine hold leads as well. Graham leads Putnam 45%-39% and DeSantis 44%-34%. Gillum beats out Putnam 42%-39% and 38%-35% over DeSantis. Levine holds leads almost identical to Graham over Putnam 43%-39% and 43%-33% over DeSantis.

The best news for Democrats in this new poll comes from the Senate race where Bill Nelson now holds a 50%-40% lead over Rick Scott. This margin was a narrower 44%-40% in March. Nelson is winning 81%-12% among Democrats and 49%-32% among independents while Scott has winning Republicans 73%-21%. Florida’s Hispanic electorate is less liberal than the nation electorate. Scott leads Nelson 40%-32% among Hispanics despite trailing Nelson 73%-20% with African Americans and 49%-43% among Caucasians. Nelson does best among women (51%-39%), but still holds a lead among men (49%-41%).

Conservative Al Lawson Wants The New Tallahassee-Jacksonville Seat

Tallahassee Mayor Andrew Gillum and family

Florida's new east/west 5th congressional district takes in most of Tallahassee and Jacksonville and was thought to be a decent district for Corrine Brown, who currently represents one of the most egregiously gerrymandered districts in the U.S.-- still-named FL-05, which snakes along Route 17 from the African-American neighborhoods of Jacksonville to Palatka, then turns due west to the African-America neighborhoods of Gainesville before heading south again into the African-American neighborhoods in and around Orlando. The new district is 45% African-American (down from 53%) but is still heavily Democratic-- and still very much Jacksonville-dominated, although more population-wise than voter participation-wise. For the best intel on Florida's new districts, the only place to turn is the real expert, Matthew Isbell at MCIMaps.

Oddly, Corrine Brown says she plans to run in FL-10, the Orlando-area district Daniel Webster is fleeing from. That leaves two Tallahassee-based front runners, Tallahassee's popular young mayor, Andrew Gillum, a moderate and former state Senator Al Lawson, a right-wing Democrat, with lots in common with the GOP, who announced yesterday. (State Rep. Mia Jones and ex-state Rep Tony Hill are telling their supporters that if Corrine makes it official that she's running in Orlando, they'll run in FL-05.)

Currently, Tallahassee is part of FL-02 and is represented by the state's most right-wing Democrat, Gwen Graham, who may be even worse than Lawson, although that's debatable. Lawson represented the area from 1982 to 2010 as a state Rep and then a state Senator and was, briefly, the Senate minority leader. In 2010 another very right-wing Dem, Blue Dog Rep. Allen Boyd was defeated for reelection by a Republican gravedigger or embalmer from the Tea Party, Steve Southerland. Two years later Southerland was challenged by Lawson, who he beat 175,856 (52.7%) to 157,634 (47.2%), similar to the Romney victory in the district over Obama on the same day.

In 2014 Lawson again made noises about running but got scared off by the well-financed Graham, daughter of Governor and Senator Bob Graham. Southerland's big mistake came when he voted for a Republican plan to cut food stamps, angering Democrats and rural/farm Republicans. Graham beat him in the R+6 district, 126,096 (50.5%) to 123,262 (49.3%) and since then has often voted exactly how Southerland would have voted. She isn't just the most conservative Democrat in the Florida delegation, she's the most conservative Democrat in the entire Congress. Her goal is to be the next Republican-lite Democrat to be beaten by a real Republican for governor, although she is currently trying to scare fellow conservative, Patrick Murphy, out of the U.S. Senate race so she can run for Rubio's abandoned seat.

Redistricting leaves her without a congressional district, the eastern portion of the district (part of the new 5th) being way too Democratic for her and the western part of the district being way too Republican even for someone who votes with the GOP as dependably as Graham does.

In his press announcement yesterday, the reactionary Lawson is quoted saying "North Florida needs a strong, progressive voice in Washington to protect those issues important to our families." Odd how people try to adapt popular words to describe themselves regardless how how clearly they do not. People who pay no attention, including, of course, the vast majority of "journalists," just assume Lawson is somehow "progressive" without checking his long, long record in the state legislature, where for example, NARAL rated him a zero. The anti-consumer Florida Chamber of Commerce, on the other hand gave him a 100% rating. His environmental ratings from the Florida League of Conservation Voters was never zero, but never too good either, always between 30% and, once, 78%. His last NRA rating (2012) was 50% and his last rating from the AFL-CIO (2209) was 67% (an improvement from the year before when they gave him a ZERO), neither of which indicates anyone remotely "progressive." And those "progressives" at the Christian Coalition gave him a 71% the last time they rated him (2009), even worse-- in terms of being pro-crackpot-- than conservaDem Darren Soto's 64%.

Gwen Graham Running For Congress In Florida

Bob Graham was a wildly popular Florida governor from 1979- 1987 when he was elected to the U.S. Senate, where he served until 2005. Previously he had been a state rep and a state senator-- and he never lost an election in his life. He was an environmental champion in a state where real estate developers had ruled the roost. In his last Senate campaign he kicked Republican Charlie Crist's ass 63-37%. Socially liberal and one of the few Senate Democrats to oppose Bush's war against Iraq, he was pretty conservative on economic justice issues and was a founder of the Big Business-oriented DLC. Yesterday his daughter, Gwen Graham, 50, tossed her hat into the ring for the FL-02 congressional seat (the traditionally Democratic eastern half of the Florida panhandle, which includes Tallahassee and Panama City). Romney beat Obama there last November, 52.3- 46.5% and Tea Party Republican Steve Southerland, first elected as part of the 2010 Great Blue Dog Apocalypse, won against conservative state Senator Al Lawson (D) 53-47%. The district is right on the tip top of the DCCC target list for 2014-- and Gwen Graham is exactly the kind of candidate they're looking for.

I caught up with her at a supermarket checkout line a few hours after she announced yesterday and spoke to her further while she was driving southwest towards Panama City. Well spoken and idealistic she didn't want to go beyond generalities she had down by rote, like “I want to be a different type of representative to find a common ground with Democrats and Republicans." When I asked her about specifics like the Chained CPI and marriage equality she abruptly told me her campaign manager said it was time for her to take another call. Steve Israel is going to love her.

Her dad was governor when she graduated from Leon High School in 1980. She returned to the area after university to practice law in Tallahassee and her three children also graduated from Leon High. People have been recruiting her to run for office forever. But this will be the first time.

Lawson says he may run for the Democratic nomination again and was a bit of a spoil-sport yesterday. “I told her it’s not going to be a race about her father, it’s going to be a race of what she can do up in Congress,” Lawson said. “I’ve never seen her involved with anything in this area.”

Keep in mind that Southerland scored a perfect ZERO on the ProgressivePunch analysis of crucial roll calls for the 113th Congress, a distinction he shared with half a dozen other Florida Tea Party Republican extremists, hate talk radio host Trey Radel, religious fanatic Dan Webster, Jeff Miller, Rich Nugent, Ander Crenshaw and Dennis Ross plus corrupt old hacks and Tea Party wanna-bes John Mica and Vern Buchanon. Zero-- all of them. The worst Democrat left in the delegation, now that the Blue Dogs have all been defeated, is lifetime Republican/opportunist Patrick Murphy, but even he was a 44.44 score.

Politico Wins The Weekend's Worst Hack Job Competition

Sessions & Israel

I almost wrote Alex Isenstadt a note to ask him if the DCCC had written his column about potential upsets or if they just told him which candidates to include. It's embarrassing that he pasted "Here's Politico's look at five potential Democratic upsets to watch" onto a list that came directly from the DCCC. Is that reporting? Are these Politico guys aware that America is more than just a theoretical construct and they ought to get out and visit sometime and not just depend on what they're told by Steve Israel and Pete Sessions for congressional coverage? DC is a closed loop; you won't learn anything useful there other than what the party machines want you to see.

The 5 races the DCCC handed Isenstadt (with information Isenstadt didn't bother to look for or report):

• FL-02: Steve Southerland vs Al Lawson- Lawson is a very conservative former leader of the state Senate who beat the DCCC's chosen Blue Dog in the primary. He knows how to win in the quirky Panhandle district. Obama lost to McCain 45-54% but would have lost by less (47-52%) under the new boundaries, bad news for Southerland. He beat pathetic Blue Dog incumbent Allen Boyd in a year disillusioned Democrats stayed away from the polls in droves-- which is what led to the Great Blue Dog Apocalypse that swept Boyd away 54-41%. This year Democrats-- who outnumber registered Republicans 234,480 (51%) to 158-657 (34%)-- will be turning out big time and that will help Lawson. As of July 25, however, Southerland had raised $1,212,911 and Lawson had only taken in $187,376. If this is an upset, it's because Lawson is so woefully underfunded. Isenstadt mentions that the NRCC has reserved $150,000 in TV time for Southerland but doesn't mention if the DCCC is stepping up to the plate for Lawson, who like all these candidates the DCCC pushed on Isenstadt is on the Red To Blue list. Isenstadt's "analysis" of the financial disparity is a pure DCCC line: "Southerland has also struggled with fundraising, collecting just $1.2 million since he was elected-- a pittance for a sitting House member." No mention that he's a million dollars ahead of Lawson.

• FL-10: Daniel Webster vs Val Demings- This is one Beltway Dems have been touting all cycle and they would love to elect a hackish, mindless Bible thumper and corrupt New Dem like Demings who will never disobey an order from leadership. It's a new district that was carefully redrawn to favor Webster. Obama would have lost 47-52% under the new boundaries and there's virtually no chance Demings will beat him, even though he's one of the most unaccomplished and ineffectual freshmen in Congress. However, she's outraised him, outspent him and has more cash on hand. As of July 25- she had raised $1,129,614 (with $632,176 left) and he has raised $887,434 (with $577,088 left). Polls show Webster up by 5% and only Steve Israel and Debbie Wasserman Schultz, two of Washington's most clueless leaders, could really believe she can win. Wasserman Schultz is probably just hoping she turns out Democratic voters in Orlando for Obama, her only real function.

• CA-36: Mary Bono Mack vs Raul Ruiz- Ruiz is the best Democratic candidate of the lot but this is a tough district-- and redistricting made it tougher. Formerly the 45th, Obama beat McCain 52-47% in 2008 while Bono Mack beat a well-positioned, highly touted opponent Steve Pougnet 51-42%. Under the new boundaries Obama would have still beaten McCain but by 50-47%. In 2010 Bono Mack spent $2,486,844 and Pougnet spent $1,843,288. As of this year's June 30 reporting deadline, Bono Mack reported having spent $860,085 with another $848,211 on hand and Ruiz had spent $222,623 with $624,872 on hand.

• IN-08: Larry Bucshon vs Dave Crooks- A Steve Israel favorite, Crooks is a reactionary Blue Dog in the southwest of the state-- "the Bloody Eighth" which swings back and forth between conservative Democrats and more conservative Republicans. In 2008, Obama lost to McCain 47-51% and under the new boundaries would have lost 48-51%. In 2010 the seat was open and Bucshon slaughtered Blue Dog Trent Van Haaften 58-37%. Although Bucshon outraised Crooks, $844-566 to $742,605, Crooks reported more cash on hand on June 30-- $530,191 to Bucshon's $386,851.

• NY-11: Michael "Mikey Suits" Grimm vs Mark Murphy- This is a weird race. Grimm, who is basically a mafioso, is about as corrupt as a congressman can be without being indicted, although that's probably coming. Only David Rivera (R-FL) and Buck McKeon (R-CA) are on a level of crookedness with Grimm. So the Democrats recruited the son of Abscam, Mark Murphy... you know, so voters wouldn't have a clear, simple shot. (Mark's pop is former Staten Island Congressman John Murphy who was defeated in 1980 after being indicted for bribery.) In 2008 Obama won the Staten Island-Brooklyn seat 55-44% but under the new boundaries would have lost it 48-51%, good news for Grimm. Also good news for Grimm is that Staten Island voters expect politicians to be corrupt and don't usually hold it against them. Grimm has raised $1,780,715 and still has a warchest of $1,297,809 (although, presumably a good part of that is going to attorneys to keep him from being indicted before election day). Murphy hasn't kept up and has only raised $372,701 and has a million dollars less than Grimm on hand.

If Isenstadt wanted to shed the hack thing with a revisit, he could talk about 5 real potential upsets, one not being followed by the DCCC (nor NRCC):

• CA-25: Buck McKeon vs Lee Rogers

• NY-23: Tom Reed vs Nate Shinagawa

• PA-16: Joe Pitts vs Aryanna Strader

• WV-01: David McKinley vs Sue Thorn

• MI-11 (the open Thaddeus McCotter seat): Syed Taj vs a reindeer rancher

And a thought to go to sleep on tonight... Obama's Better Than Romney

Why Does The Corporate Media Call Reactionaries "Moderates?"

Reactionary Allen Boyd finds a kindred spirit in Nebraska Senator Ben Nelson, another Bush supporting Democrat

This morning the McClatchy papers ran with a decent enough article about how Obama is having a hard time with his plans to rebuild the middle class because of conservative Democrats. The problem with the piece is in the headline, Greatest Threat to Obama Spending Plan? Moderate Dems. [UPDATE: McClatchy has now removed the word "moderate" from the title!] "Moderate" is a word that most people-- like almost all people other than Rush Limbaugh, who detests and reviles moderates-- think of positively. Calling someone a "moderate" bolsters them and their positions.

The very first example of a "moderate" that David Lightman, the McClatchy reporter, uses is one of the most far right reactionary Democrats in Congress, Florida kook Allen Boyd. When George Bush sent about to destroy Social Security and sell it off to Wall Street, he knew exactly where to turn for "bipartisan" cover. In fact, the only Democrat he could find to co-sponsor his privatization bill for Social Security was... Allen Boyd. Boyd consistently crosses the aisle to vote with Republicans, not necessarily on the small mundane issues Congress addresses, but on the highly charged, partisan issues that separate Democrats from Republicans.

Boyd and two dozen other Blue Dogs-- anti-working family conservatives like Dan Boren (OK), Heath Shuler (NC), Joe Donnelly (IN), Travis Childers (MS), Gene Taylor (MS), Bobby Bright (AL), Collin Peterson (MN), Chis Carney (PA)-- are so far to the right that calling them "moderates," forces media to refer to actual moderates, like Loretta Sanchez (CA), Adam Schiff (CA), Michael Michaud (ME), and Michael Arcuri (NY)-- all also Blue Dogs-- as liberals. And then what about progressives and liberals like Donna Edwards (D-MD), Raul Grijalva (D-AZ), Barbara Lee (D-CA), Jan Schakowsky (D-IL), Keith Ellison (D-MN), Tammy Baldwin (D-WI), Jesse Jackson (D-IL), and Linda Sánchez (D-CA), real progressives who fight for Democratic values and principles and for the aspirations of working families every single day? What are they-- communists?

Lightman mentions that "if all 47 Blue Dogs joined the House's 178 Republicans, they could deny Democratic leaders a House majority of 218." True enough, but the fact of the matter is, the actual "moderates" in the Blue Dog caucus are Democrats first and they do usually stand up for working families over corporate interests. The reactionaries among the Blue Dogs have been crossing the aisle all year-- and can be expected to continue-- but they can't do it on their own and, ocassionally, there are enough mainstream conservatives in the Republican caucus who cross over to the Democrats to balance out the far right Blue Dogs.

And speaking of Allen Boyd, looks like even in his own very conservative Panhandle district, people are getting fed up with him. The dean of the Florida state Senate, Al Lawson, who is a conservative Democrat himself-- but, unlike Boyd, still a Democrat-- is going to be challenging Boyd in the primary this year. Lawson's senate district and Boyd's congressional district are largely filled with the same voters. The problem for Boyd is that in the Democratic primary, he won't have Republicans able to come out and vote for him. The looming primary battle against Boyd is seen in Florida as one of the state's hottest races for 2010 and national groups are talking about helping Lawson get the funding he needs to take on the execrable and treacherous Boyd.

Oh... and back to that word thing again. In today's Wall Street Journal there's a story by Charles Levinson in Jerusalem titled, Netanyahu Strikes Deal With Rival's Far-Right Party. Isn't Netanyahu's own Likud party the far-right party? A more descriptive and accurate headline might have been, "Netanyahu's Far Right Party Links Up, As Expected, With Lieberman's Neo-Fascist Party."