What Can We Expect From McCain Tonight?

McCain's younger brother Joe-- the one who was rallying KKK members in Virginia a week ago-- has e-mailed the Baltimore Sun blasting his brother's campaign for making ads that show McCain as a "crank and curmudgeon." He attacked the lobbyists who have ruined his brother's chances to win the presidency and who won't let anyone-- meaning himself-- speak to the press. So with McCain's poll numbers continuing to sink dramatically-- in great part because Americans are finally sick and tired of the Rovian attack ads and viciously negative smear tactics-- McCain needs to do something dramatic tonight to put the race back on a footing that won't seal his doom and devastate his entire party.

Conventional wisdom has him reaching out to the older white voters, the last group of dependable voters to have started to move towards Obama, in states like Pennsylvania, West Virginia, Florida... even Arkansas. Early voters are breaking so huge for Obama that Inside the Beltway prognosticators are in shock.



When I was growing up, West Virginia and Arkansas were dependable parts of the Democratic coalition. Both have turned increasingly red in recent years. This week an ARG poll shows Obama ahead by 8 points in West Virginia, his first lead of the campaign. And McCain is down in Arkansas and with just a single-digit lead in a state that was a Republican "given" for the entire campaign. Can McCain turn it around tonight? Unlikely-- but he has to try. He'll target the elderly and especially elderly voters who have sinking investments and promises the Palin crowd that he'll bring the smears and sewage right into America's living rooms tonight.

So it'll be crazed hysteria about Ayers and ugly racism thinly disguised as a Rev Wright discussion, mashed up with half-baked and erratic and desperate rantings about economic pie-in-the-sky. To counter the predictable lies about Obama's tax proposals, the campaign has come up with a widget that allows you to type in your income and see what the results are if Obama's tax plans go into effect while McCain spews out his clueless lies in what is looking more and more like his last stand, as the failing McCain campaign tries defending deeply red bastions like Indiana and shifts its focus full time into voter fraud and media interest shifts to the Senate and congressional races. I even heard some talking head on TV mention them today!

Last night Senator Russ Feingold explained in Eugene why it's so important to elect Jeff Merkley to replace Gordon Smith as the Oregon senator:



In fact, Bush is in Michigan today, not on behalf of McCain, who he's given up on (and who has given up on him), but to bolster the sagging fortunes of far right extremist Tim Walberg, who recent polls show is losing his re-election bid to progressive Democratic state Senator Mark Schauer. Bush is expected to raise hundreds of thousands of dollars at the home of the neo-fascist billionaire Dick DeVos, former head of Amway and a failed candidate for Governor. Cheapest tickets are $5,000 and the money will mostly be split between Walberg and the other endangered Michigan incumbent, Joe Knollenberg. Blue America is raising money for both the Democrats running against these two, Mark Schauer and Gary Peters. Even one dollar helps build war chests against Bush's attempts to leave behind a right-wing force in Congress.


UPDATE: TOO LATE?

My friend's aunt Martha is even older than McCain. She's 95. Today she's breaking out of the British retirement home in Sierra Madre and moving into her own apartment. She's had it with being treated like an invalid! She's also had it with the Republicans. Aunt Martha has voted for a Republican for president every single election. Do the math and think about that. She voted against FDR, voted for Dewey, Nixon (several times), Goldwater... Bush. Last week she pulled up Tim Dickinson's Rolling Stone story, , Make-Believe Maverick, on her computer and cast her absentee ballot for Barack Obama. Obama may be planning to make a play for elderly white folks tonight... but he's too late to reach Aunt Martha. Last night David Letterman the 20 top 10 ways McCain can turn it around:

10. Try the old "I'll vote for you if you vote for me" trick
9. Inspire America by jumping Straight Talk Express over Snake River Canyon
8. Change name to Jorack McBama
7. Start wearing a cape
6. Step one: send Bin Laden free tickets to Giants game. Step two: when he shows up in East Rutherford, New Jersey expecting to enjoy some big blue smashmouth football: gotcha sucka!
5. Sizzling tango with Cloris Leachman on "Dancing With The Stars"
4. Put more effort into budget plan, less effort into Facebook status updates
3. Point out his steady leadership got us through the Great Depression
2. Assure voters the only poll that matters is in his pants
1. Get Sarah Palin to illegally fire herself

Top Ten Extras

11. Uh, stop being old?
12. Start hangin' with one of them talking chihuahuas
13. Suspend campaign until the economy recovers in about 30 years
14. Maybe one of them fake tans?
15. Have Palin start doing impressions of Tina Fey
16. Release new line of trendy hearing aids
17. Instead of boring speeches, read from hilarious Late Show Fun Facts book. Available at fine stores everywhere.
18. New catch phrase: "Chillax, Broseph"
19. Wear tighter slacks
20. An appearance on Sabado Gigante couldn't hurt

Why Are Republican Congressional Candidates Sinking Everywhere In The Country?

It starts with abysmal leadership

For months we've been predicting significant gains for Democrats running for Congress in every part of the country. This morning it's official: Carl Hulse and David Herszenhorn have affirmed it in the NY Times. Covering for laughable Inside-the-Beltway myopia, they claim that "analysts now predict a Democratic surge on a scale that seemed unlikely just weeks ago, with even some Republicans in traditional strongholds fighting for their political careers, and Democratic leaders dreaming of ironclad majorities." And they blame the Wall Street meltdown, rather than a gestalt where the Wall Street meltdown and whatever follows it is a symptom of now loathed Republican misrule.

As we've explained before, the open Republican seats in Virginia, New Mexico and Colorado are out of grasp of the extreme rightists running for those seats. McCain strategists have written off Elizabeth Dole in North Carolina and Al Franken just whipped Norm Coleman in two consecutive Minnesota polls. John Sununu (R-NH) has had a big "loser" sign painted on him all year and it's never coming off and the news on Gordon Smith has been so terrible-- I mean the guy;s frozen food factory was busted for employing undocumented workers a few weeks ago-- that it's hard to imagine that in the current electoral climate he can win. Much depends on the outcome of his bribery trial but corrupt Alaska Senator Ted Stevens has come out on the wrong side of every poll in the last 5 or 6 months. One of the two Mississippi races, Wicker's re-election bid, looks very rocky, And although they are tougher races, Democratic challengers have shots in Texas, Maine, Georgia, Kentucky, Oklahoma, Idaho, and Nebraska.

In the House, Democrats say they could capture a dozen of the 26 Republican seats left open by retirements, and challengers are closing in on Republican incumbents in Colorado, Connecticut, Florida, Michigan, Nevada, New York and elsewhere.

“The last week has severely damaged Republican candidates,” said Stuart Rothenberg, a nonpartisan analyst who predicts that Democrats could gain as many as six to nine Senate seats and 25 to 30 House seats. “Everything points to warning signals for Republicans.”

If such projections by Mr. Rothenberg and others are realized, it would push Senate Democrats tantalizingly close to the filibuster-proof 60-vote majority that has eluded Senate leaders since the late 1970s. While the environment could change again in the remaining weeks, recent polling suggests a fundamental shift, with Republicans absorbing more of the blame for the economic uncertainty.

At the same time, the political arms of Congressional Republicans are being outspent-- their House organization recently borrowed $8 million-- and have fewer targets, with only a handful of Democrats in Florida, Louisiana, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Texas and Wisconsin and in potential trouble.

Republicans are understandably nervous.

...Strategists for both parties say Republican House and Senate candidates are being hurt by the dip in support for Senator John McCain at the top of the ticket, frustrating Republicans who had initially viewed Mr. McCain as a strong asset who could appeal to independents and even moderate Democrats and protect Republicans in a tough year.

But the market volatility and perceived Democratic edge on handling the economy has evidently turned voters to Democrats, a view supported by one top adviser to Republican candidates.

“This financial crisis has provided momentum to Barack Obama and other Democrats, and their campaigns now have the wind at their backs,” said the consultant, who asked not to be identified speaking pessimistically about the Republican outlook.

Look at the upstate New York race that pits progressive Democrat Dan Maffei against reactionary Republican Dale Sweetland. A brand new poll shows Maffei with an 18 point lead! And it's far more than just the pinch in people's wallets. The feeling everywhere in the country is that the Republican Party has strayed too far from the mainstream and have lost touch with regular Americans. Republican registration has plummeted while Democratic registration is through the roof. But pick any serious race-- or even one of the dozens of races rapidly becoming serious-- and you'll see why Democrats are ahead and moving further ahead. Let me pull one up at random--- eenie, meanie, minie, Joe... yes Joe Knollenberg serving his eighth term representing moderate, suburban Oakland County near Detroit (MI-09). If the guy was ever on the ball he's completely lost it. Forget for a moment that he's been a Bush rubber stamp on every single issue domestic and foreign and forget that he flip-flopped on Paulson's Wall Street bailout-- against it like his constituents, and then for it like his campaign contributors ($362,500 from Finance, Insurance and Real Estate). Instead think about what kind of an utterly out-of-touch mentality it takes to buy into a late night comedy show punchline like this:

Knollenberg said Wednesday he had asked Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, Republican John McCain's running mate, to campaign with him in Oakland County. McCain's campaign pulled out of Michigan last week and Palin said she was disappointed by the tactical move.

"She's an exciting lady. She's somebody who knows something about the real world. The governor of Alaska obviously is very much involved in national security because Alaska touches very close to Russia and Russia is not all that happy with us right now nor are we with them," Knollenberg said.

Highlighting the absurdity of Knollenberg's flight from reality, the Michigan Democratic Party has invited Tina Fey to come campaign in Michigan. New polling out this morning from Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research confirms that Peters is beating the incumbent. Knollenberg's job approval rating is down to 34% and the new polls shows a 43- 40% lead for Peters.

East of MI-09 is a district represented by one of the most radical right extremists in Congress, Tim Walberg. Polls show him losing badly to state Senator Mark Schauer, who has significant support not just from wildly enthusiastic Democrats and from independents but even from mainstream Republicans embarrassed to be represented by someone from the political fringe. It's worth comparing the brand new ads of the two candidates. Walberg's is about... Michael Moore. Here's Mark Schauer's; another example of way the congressional races are turning into a route:



Although Karl Rove, whose future residency in or out of federal prison is likely to hang on the outcome of the election, is still banking on the capriciousness, ignorance and stupidity of undecided voters, less biased political observers are starting to whisper the word landslide. Obama's coattails have already proven themselves as strong as McCain's are toxic. An Obama landslide will be something Republican members of Congress will remember for decades.

Obviously, what the mainstream media would never think of looking into is the differences between progressive Democrats and nominal Democrats from the Republican wing of the Democratic Party, something we looked at yesterday. The differences however, are very real and very crucial and it means a lot more to elect one Darcy Burner or one Gary Peters than a dozen pseudo-Democrats like Paul Carmouche, Bobby Bright or Jerry Connolly. If you'd like to help, you'll find all good ones and no bad ones here at the Blue America ActBlue page.

Why Are Republican Incumbents Afraid To Debate In Their Home Districts?

After seeing what an incredibly effective speaker Oregon Senate candidate Jeff Merkley is, I was interested in knowing if he would be debating Bush's rubber stamp mouthpiece Gordon Smith. So I asked. His campaign has proposed a series of 8 debates. Merkley has committed to five specific debates around the state with different Oregon television stations and nonpartisan public service groups. So far Gordon Smith hasn't committed to any. But let's be fair, if you had a record like his-- in a state like Oregon-- would you want to defend it in public? But they I started seeing a surprising pattern: Republican incumbents all over the country are avoiding or minimizing the number of debates they're willing to have with Democrats.

Yesterday, almost in passing, we saw how Bush rubber stamp Charlie Dent refuses to debate Sam Bennett about energy policy. “Congressman Dent is so deep in the pocket of Big Oil companies and special interest groups he’s refusing to publicly defend his record and have an open debate about the issue,” said Kathryn Seck, Sam Bennett’s campaign manager. “He should explain why he’s taken $75,000 from Big Oil and given them billions in tax breaks while middle class Pennsylvanians are struggling to afford high gas prices.  Voters deserve an open dialogue on the issues and Congressman Dent is ducking the issue.” Then this morning I got a press release from Iowa's 4th CD (the north central part of the state, centered in Ames). And sure, enough, the Bush rubber stamp incumbent, Tom Latham, is refusing to debate the Democratic candidate Becky Greenwald.

Tom Latham refused this week to debate Becky Greenwald while he is home on the August recess. The Greenwald campaign accepted a debate with Latham at the Iowa Farmer’s Union Convention, an event that Latham is attending. Latham refused to debate.
 
“We are disappointed that Tom Latham refused to debate Becky Greenwald at the Iowa Farmer’s Union Convention. We tried to work with his schedule and find a venue for a debate at an event Latham would already be attending,” said Campaign Manager Robert Brennan. “Iowans deserve to hear from Tom Latham why after 14 years in Congress, he has done nothing to address the energy crisis, lack of care for our veterans and the high cost of healthcare.”
 
Last week, the Greenwald campaign sent a letter to the Latham campaign asking to hold four debates over the August recess. The Latham campaign refused the debates saying their schedule was full. The Iowa Farmers Union tried to accommodate with his schedule and arrange for a debate at their convention in Marshalltown, IA on Saturday August 23rd, an event that Latham will be attending. The Latham campaign refused to debate.

Was I looking at a pattern? I reached out to a few of the campaigns I speak to regularly. Gary Peters (D-MI) has accepted invitations from the Troy Chamber of Commerce-- and even from the Troy Republican Party Club, as well as from other groups who have been trying to set up debates. Joe Knollenberg-- a Big Oil shill who has accepted $66,250 in "donations" from Big Oil and owns over $90,000 in oil company stocks that increase in value as gasoline prices rise-- is petrified to stand up in front of an audience of voters and defend his energy voters.

Annette Taddeo debates empty chair in Miami

In May the AFL-CIO, which had endorsed Ileana Ros-Lehtinen and Mario and Lincoln Diaz-Balart in 2006, invited their 3 candidates plus Democratic challengers Annette Taddeo, Joe Garcia and Raul Martinez to a debate. The three Republicans, panicking at the last moment, ducked the debate. Each blamed scheduling conflicts. The AFL-CIO went on with the debate-- Annette told me she debated Ros-Lehtinen's empty chair-- and then endorsed the debate winners, the three Democrats.

South Florida congressional Republicans backed out of next week's debates. Their opponents say they're hiding.

Miami's three Cuban-American Republicans in Congress have scrapped plans to participate in a series of debates with their Democratic challengers.

The South Florida AFL-CIO, which in recent years has hosted debates for mayoral and gubernatorial races, planned three debates next week for the nationally watched contests. But the Republicans said this week that they're not going, throwing the bipartisan nature of the event into doubt.

The union-- which endorsed the three incumbents in 2006-- says the events will go on next week as scheduled. All three Democrats, who represent the first significant challenge to the incumbents, said they plan to attend and suggested the Republicans were reluctant to spar face to face.

"We just want to give our working families a chance to talk to the candidates,'' said union president Fred Frost, who met late Wednesday with representatives from two of the Republican campaigns in a bid to revive the events. "I think they'd be squandering what I'd consider a great opportunity."

In New Jersey Dennis Shulman has been trying to get incumbent Scott Garrett to debate him in front of voters. Apparently Garrett-- like fellow extremist loon and Big Oil shill John Kline in Minnesota-- just doesn't think he has to do debates. Kline's spokesperson said his record speaks for itself. It does-- and if voters were actually reading it Kline wouldn't get 30% of the vote.

Last year Darcy Burner was eager to debate incumbent Bush rubber stamp Dave Reichert everywhere in the district. His staff, wary of putting him into unscripted settings because he has a tendency to either put his foot in his mouth or reveal his lack of policy depth, allowed him to do one debate, which was sponsored by the Seattle Times. The Times debate for 2008 is scheduled for October 8 and Reichert is going to do it. Meanwhile, though, there have been debates proposed by KCTS-9 and the Seattle Post-Intelligencer as well as by TV station KING 5 and radio stations KUOW and KIRO 710. Darcy wants debates. Reichert wants to hide. Similarly, Bob Lord has challenged John Shadegg who refuses to talk, only waves his toy air pressure gauge over his head and mutters incoherently about running for the Senate. Shadegg won't say yes or no about debates. Last year Vic Wulsin was able, after embarrassingly her repeatedly, to get Mean Jean Schmidt, one of the House's most woefully ignorant members, to do one debate. Vic would like to do a series of debates across the district to talk about how to help solve the economic conditions of Ohio families hit hard by recession, the housing crisis, gasoline prices, unemployment, the health care crisis and inflation but Mean Jean isn't answering. The Ohio News Network has asked both candidates to debate in October but it looks like Vic may have the stage to herself.

Most of the Senate races have at least one debate scheduled. But Gordon Smith isn't the only senatorial coward hiding from his Democratic opponent. John Cornyn (R-TX) doesn't feel comfortable unless he's speaking at places like the Petroleum Club in Fort Worth. Big Oil has given him more money this year ($480,100) than any other member of Congress (other than the million plus they gave to ExxonJohn McCain) and he's backed them all the way, which is precisely why you're paying around $4/gallon at the pump. But when it comes to debating Rick Noriega about his votes, Cornyn is full of... petroleum. Plenty of TV and radio stations, as well as civic organizations throughout Texas, have reached out to the two campaigns for debates. Noriega keeps accepting invitation. Cornyn claims he's negotiating. But he isn't even doing that-- unless he's negotiating with himself.

Just as I was about to publish this, I got an e-mail from Andrea Miller, the powerfully articulate and knowledgeable Democratic candidate running against dull rubber stamp Randy Forbes in southern Virginia. Her experience is almost identical to at least half, perhaps three-quarters of Democratic challengers:

Randy Forbes is avoiding me big time. There have been at least 3 requests (2 from radio and 1 from TV). Additionally, there has also been a debate request from a group that simply wants to schedule a public forum.
 
What is he afraid of? I have an energy policy and he has energy questions. I have solutions to our education challenges and he doesn't even know there is a problem.

My guess: he's just afraid of Andrea Miller and getting his ass kicked publicly in front of the electorate when she exposes his indefensible voting record.

BLUE AMERICA WELCOMES GARY PETERS (D-MI)

These days it isn't that hard to find Democratic candidates who espouse the solidly progressive positions that are required to win a Blue America endorsement. It isn't even that hard to find men and women, like Gary Peters, whose own records show their dedication to those positions. But Jane, John, Digby and I are looking for something even beyond that in our candidates-- men and women who show signs of being leaders of a progressive movement that will change the course of go-along-to-get-along politics. There is plenty of factual information about Gary on his website and he can tell you more about himself in the session in the comments section at Firedoglake today (starting at 2pm, EST). But before I tell you a little something about the rubber stamp incumbent Gary is hoping to rescue MI-09 from, I want to tell you about the clincher that ultimately sold us on Gary the very first time we spoke with him earlier this year.

Gary was elected to the state Senate in 1994 and in 2002 he ran for Michigan Attorney General, losing by 0.17% (around 5,000 votes). Gary was an unabashed proponent of equality under the law for all people-- including gays and lesbians-- and the Republicans attacked him for this and turned it into their big issue. This year he is running against a longtime Republican incumbent and he's as committed to equality-- and to gay marriage-- as he was when the bigoted GOP used the issue as a wedge against him. (Knollenberg has an unambiguously anti-gay voting record; he has voted against gay equality every single chance he got. No one has been worse in the entire Congress.) This is what he told me last week:

I believe in civil rights and equality for all people and to me gay marriage is a basic human rights issue, one I feel very strongly about. When I take a position based on core principles, I'm not going to waiver from it

Sounds like the kind of person we like seeing in Congress-- even more so as a replacement for a congressman that doesn't have any core principles, or at least has never demonstrated any-- unless being an unwavering rubber stamp is considered a core principle. Joe Knollenberg's pals in the local media give him some cover and try to paint him as a "moderate" and an "independent voice." With his voting record readily accessible online, that becomes rather difficult, since he has voted with Bush over 95% of the time. And that doesn't count Iraq, since he voted with Bush 100% on that one-- 62 roll calls, 62 pro-war votes. Same with his 100% record against the well-being of our military personnel and 100% against veterans. Funny for someone who's always yelling "support the troops." (He must have meant "support the military contractors" or "support the war profiteers.")

For someone who lives in a moderate suburban district (Oakland County, in the northwest suburbs of Detroit), he's run up quite the extremist record-- across the board:

He's #2 on the League of Conservation Voters “Dirty Dozen” list (after Jim Inhofe), and the #1 dirtiest in the House. He also voted eight times against raising the minimum wage, but voted 11 times to give himself a pay raise. In the end, he voted for the most recent minimum wage increase-- the one that was tied to war funding. He's one of the most extreme anti-Choice members of Congress but had no problem at all voting against stem cell research and against health care for needy children (S-CHIP).

Knollenberg was connected to Abramoff and lots of other dirty lobbyists and there is always a correlation between big corporations giving him large "contributions" and his voting patterns. He actually celebrates outsourcing and the kinds of trade deals that have been an economic disaster for Michigan. Guess who blurted this out on the floor of the House of Representatives-- "Trade between the United States and China is a net plus for the American people. It supports hundreds of thousands of high-paying jobs. It creates competition in the economy. It results in the American people receiving better goods and services at more affordable prices."

Gary needs to let Oakland County voters-- who have recently backed Democrats for the U.S. Senate and the governorship-- about Knollenberg's extremist agenda and about the kind of alternatives he would offer. We added him to our Blue America page today. Please help him.

AND THEN THERE ARE THE COURAGEOUS DEMOCRATS-- MEET GARY PETERS OF MICHIGAN

I took an extra shower today after writing about Hoyer and Carney and all those reactionary Blue Dog candidates. I feel like celebrating a really good Democrat after that. A couple weeks ago I spent an hour or so on the phone with Gary Peters, a former Michigan state senator and state lottery commissioner. Gary is running against a garden variety, 8-term Bush rubber stamp, Joe Knollenberg. The suburban Detroit 9th district (Pontiac, Birmingham, Royal Oak and Farmington Hills, Auburn Hills) is Michigan's wealthiest CD and pretty evenly split between Democrats and Republicans. Knollenberg scraped by in 2006 with 52% of the vote against a grassroots Democrat with exactly zero help from the DCCC. (She spent $400,000 against his $3,100,000). Gary impressed me mightily on the phone as a guy who would rather do what's right than pander to win.

The last time he ran-- for Attorney General-- he lost by a small handful of votes after being viciously gay-baited by the GOP because of his support of equality in marriage. He's still for equality in marriage. Most Michigan voters aren't falling for that hypocritical claptrap from the Republicans anymore though, not with the economy falling in on their heads. The Bush Recession may just be getting rolling in much of the country-- but not in Michigan. It's been in full swing there for a long time-- and it's why Gary is likely to beat Knollenberg this year. Bush rubber stamps are not what Michigan voters are looking for in 2008.

Yesterday Gary came out strongly in favor renegotiating the NAFTA agreement, which has cost Michigan more jobs than almost any other state.

Peters, in a speech to AFL-CIO members in Detroit, outlined a series of economic proposals, including the repeal of tax subsidies for oil companies, the promotion of alternative energy industries and the targeting of currency manipulation by China.

...Peters said trade deals such as NAFTA and the Central American Free Trade Agreement need to be revisited to include improved labor standards and environmental protections.

"We just need to have fair rules," he said.

Earlier today we talked about Mississippi quasi-Democrat Travis Childers upon whom we wasted no enthusiasm. That way we can double up on enthusiasm for real Democrats like Gary Peters. He is a man of character and a real leader, someone who will be part of the solution for all the right reasons, not a drag on finding solutions for all the wrong ones.